Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[SilverMachine]

Zelensky/Trump meeting was hi-fuckin-larious.

 

[Relic]

Another Russian GRAU ammunition storage depot was struck by Ukrainian drones during the night. This time it was in Kotluban in the Volgograd region. Massive Explosion and fire raging. This is the third significant stockpile in Russia proper to be destroyed in a week. Russia is having massive issues with air defense coverage.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1840245828516012415

 

[Soldier30]

Episode of a recording of a Ukrainian soldier talking about the situation in the Kurakhovsky direction and a trip on a Ukrainian-made Kozak-7 armored vehicle. The group was hit by drones, the Kozak-7 armored vehicle was damaged, they tried to evacuate it at night using a BTS-4 tracked armored tractor, a Soviet-made vehicle developed in 1965. The soldier died in the Kurakhovsky direction during the assault. The General Staff of Ukraine called the Kurakhovsky direction the "hottest".

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of a battle in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region of Russia. The video shows an attack by FPV drones, models unknown, of the 106th Tula Airborne Division of Russia, on a column of the Ukrainian army. The column consists of an American-made Stryker armored personnel carrier, two BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles and a Soviet-made BREM-1 armored recovery vehicle. The mechanized unit of the Ukrainian army was moving towards the village of Vesyoloye. The video is shortened, the dead servicemen are cut out

 

[chibiyabi]

Sanctions were supposed to have a devastating effect on the Russian economy. Oil and gas production was supposed to drop lower and lower due to the withdrawal of western expertise and specialist equipment. That has not happened, in part because equipment has been ordered by other countries then shipped to Russia. Revenue from oil and gas sales was supposed to be restricted by the price cap imposed by the west. That has happened - Russia has to discount the price to sell to new large customers India and China.

India and China have increased exports to Russia, in part to fill the demand that was previously met by imports from the countries now sanctioning Russia or production of their products in factories in Russia. China and India do not want to be paid for their exports to Russia in rubles. This means that Russian importers are having to sell rubles to buy currency acceptable to Indian and Chinese suppliers.

Sanctions on banks dealing with Russia mean that it is difficult for countries buying from Russia to actually pay for what they are buying. Example: India could not pay Russia for the S-400 SAM system it bought.

The list of problems this war is causing Russia goes on and on. Central bank base rate near 20%, inflation rate near 10%, loss of labour by industry to the army and weapons production meaning other factories cannot be run to their production capacity, production of Russian airliners last year a grand total of zero etc etc

maybe it said by people who said that bashar assad will throw to moscow when Turks and US coalition start involve in syrian conflict, not me.

 

[Relic]

Denmark announced that it will invest an additional $680 million usd into Ukraine's domestic defense industry. The money will be split into 4 avenues...

- Domestic Missile production
- Domestic ATGM production
- Domestic Attack UAV production
- Domestic Artillery production

Previously, Denmark funded the production of 18x Bohdana 2 155mm howitzers, which have entered service in the Ukrainian military.

Initiatives like these are vitally important. Ukraine has additional capacity to produce weapons much more cheaply than in the West, however, they need help from foreign funding the support both R&D and production. Ukraine needs more countries, such as mine, that have virtually run out of useful weapons to give Ukraine, to simply donate sums of money to facilitate domestic manufacturing. $5 Billion usd per year injected into Ukrainian domestic defense production would go a long way given the relatively small cost of production and labour in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1840649250075467903

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the attack of the Russian FPV drone "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky" on the Ukrainian tank "Leopard-2A6" of German production. The drone is controlled by the fiber-optic system "Groza-Leska", which allows it to remain invulnerable to electronic warfare. The consequences of the drone's strike on the tank are not shown, the tank itself has a protective canopy, the so-called barbecue, made of mesh. The FPV drone "Vandal" can carry a payload of 3.5 kg. The drone is controlled by a fiber-optic cable at a range of up to 20 km. The video was filmed in the Kursk region of Russia.

 

[Spitfire9]

Hopefully Ukraine takes back Donbass but its not going to easy.

If they take back Donbass no doubt there is going to be a long drawn out insurgency especially since that province is mainly Russians. I hope they can return Ukrainian refugees that fled there to come back. As long as Russians live there its going to be hard to control that place.

Overall I back Ukraine to take it back. If only they did not lose Crimea. Crimea is more important than Donbass.

If a large majority of the inhabitants of the Donbas - excluding recent immigrants from Russia - do not want to be Ukrainian citizens, is it worth Ukraine conquering the area?

 

[Soldier30]

Footage has been published of a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber attack, presumably with an ODAB-1500 vacuum bomb. The video was filmed in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. There is no official ODAB-1500 bomb, but the presence of the bomb was confirmed by Colonel General Alexei Kim in March 2024, reporting at a meeting to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on the use of such an aerial bomb. It is possible that the ODAB-1500 bomb was created in Russia in the 2000s. The first ODAB-500 bombs were produced in the 1970s by the Bazalt Federal State Unitary Enterprise, a development of the GSKB-47 design bureau. The ODAB-1500 aerial bomb is activated sequentially during combat use: first, the active substance is sprayed, and then it oxidizes in the air with ignition and subsequent detonation. Based on the data on ODAB-500, the radius of destruction of the thermobaric charge of the ODAB-1500 bomb is not less than 500 meters, with a pressure of 120 atmospheres at the epicenter of the explosion. The damaging factor of the ODAB-1500 bomb is thermal radiation and a jump in atmospheric pressure. A large area of destruction allows to reduce the cost of the ammunition by reducing the requirements for accuracy of impact.

 

[Iskander]

If a large majority of the inhabitants of the Donbas - excluding recent immigrants from Russia - do not want to be Ukrainian citizens, is it worth Ukraine conquering the area?

The Russians held a referendum there. Does Russia have such a right?
What about international law?
Why doesn't Russia hold a referendum in its national republics?
The Russians killed tens of thousands of Chechen separatists in Chechnya to "restore constitutional order."
What were Russian troops doing in Kyiv in 2022? wanted to hold a referendum? Or is this just a classic occupation of a neighboring country?
Give us your arguments.

 

[SilverMachine]

There's no argument/justification for what Russia's been engaging in here.

There's also the reality, Ukraine isn't going to be getting it back at this point. Very likely never were, short of Biden choosing to have gone all-in with leading a full-on NATO war against Russia on day 1. Majority of the Donbas is staying Russian from here on out, Crimea even more firmly so. It sucks, but the ethics of it aren't the reality on the ground. Might doesn't make right, but it does make reality.

Also, Chechnya's pretty firmly Russian-sphere as of now. I wouldn't put it past Donbas/Crimea being pretty happy or at least accepting/neutral of the Russian-not-Ukrainian situation either as time passes, once things have been peaceful & stable for some years. Territory in this part of the world has changed hands a whole bunch of times over the centuries, and just because we like to tell ourselves we're "above" conquest in our supposedly-enlightened 2024 state, doesn't mean it's true. People can and do move on.

 

[Spitfire9]

The Russians held a referendum there. Does Russia have such a right?
What about international law?
Why doesn't Russia hold a referendum in its national republics?
The Russians killed tens of thousands of Chechen separatists in Chechnya to "restore constitutional order."
What were Russian troops doing in Kyiv in 2022? wanted to hold a referendum? Or is this just a classic occupation of a neighboring country?
Give us your arguments.

I asked a question, so I don't have an assertation to argue but I would say that referenda held in controversial circumstances should not be considered valid unless independent observers report them as being free and fair.

The Russian regime now in power is not known for its interest in free and fair elections - trumped up administrative reasons why opponents cannot stand in elections, imprisonment of opponents before elections on trumped up charges, assassinations of political opponents etc,. Any referendum result in any area of Ukraine controlled by Russia has no credibility.

One problem that stems from interfering with elections is that nobody knows what voters in an election or referendum want (inevitably). And that is before the regime running the process chooses to falsify the count of votes, if it does choose to do that. For example, the declared result of the recent Venezuelan election is not believed by many people.

It helps if you have a respect for elections in your society. In the UK less than 50 people were accused of cheating in the national elections (in 2019, I think). No photo ID was required to vote, making cheating relatively easy. More than 25 million people voted.

PS I guess the best way to ensure that the number of votes recorded is accurate is to have an international agency in control of the boxes in which votes are cast, in control of counting the votes in isolation and in control of declaring the results. I would have no objection to that happening in my country.

 

[Spitfire9]

In some cases Russia is being reduced to barter in order to trade internationally. Companies in other countries do not want payment in rubles, banks do not want to be involved in buying or selling rubles.

Russia To Accept Mandarins Instead of Money Amid Payment Difficulties - The Moscow Times

Russian companies have established a barter trade system with Pakistan to facilitate economic exchanges without the need for monetary transactions, as they seek to overcome challenges with payments related to Western sanctions on Moscow.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[contricusc]

In some cases Russia is being reduced to barter in order to trade internationally. Companies in other countries do not want payment in rubles, banks do not want to be involved in buying or selling rubles.

When I visited Uzbekistan, I went to a bank to exchange some dollars, and I noticed that the bank was selling rubles, but it was not buying them. All other currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, KZT) had a buying and a selling price, but the ruble only had a selling price. They were not buying rubles anymore. And this was almost a year ago.

 

[SUMAYYA]

Ukraine's 72nd Brigade shares details of evacuation from Vuhledar

Ukraine's 72nd Brigade shares details of evacuation from Vuhledar

The 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine asserts that the evacuation of their wounded soldiers from Vuhledar was difficult, but the withdrawal from the city allowed to minimise losses.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Spitfire9]

Guided aerial bombs known as KABs are precision-guided munitions that have a shorter range than missiles, but are far cheaper to produce. The weapons are launched from aircraft within Russian territory, outside the range of Ukrainian air defense.

Russia used almost 900 guided bombs against Ukraine over the past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sept. 29.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine strikes Russian airfield in Voronezh Oblast, source says

Key developments on Oct. 3: * Ukrainian drones strike Russian airfield in Voronezh Oblast, SBU source says * Zelensky calls for jointly intercepting Russian missiles during NATO chief Rutte's visit to Kyiv * Russia attacking Kursk Oblast settlements with no Ukrainian troops present, Kyiv's...

kyivindependent.com

Unless Ukraine

(a) has weapons capable of shooting down the aircraft launching glide bombs
(b) attacks those aircraft in Russian air space before they launch the glide bombs

the glide bomb attacks can continue uninterrupted. If the US is preventing Ukraine using weapons to defend itself from these attacks, it is responsible in part for the deaths and destruction being suffered by Ukraine.

The US is supposed to be helping Ukraine protect itself from Russian attack, not preventing Ukraine protect itself from Russian attack. If that is what the US is doing, it is not clear to me which side the US supports in this war. I have not before come across a war in which one ally (US) makes it easier for the enemy to attack another ally (Ukraine)!

 

[SilverMachine]

Apparently the order to evacuate came on Wednesday, and the Ukes had to basically make it out on-foot while getting picked apart by drones. Like there wasn't much of a plan to get out of dodge, every-man-for-himself type of stuff. Wild.

Hard to say how much the Kursk offensive aided Russia in taking these eastern areas, but we do know the Ukrainians diverted major "crack units" to the offensive, so all in all it probably wasn't smart. For all of Zelensky's "bargaining chip, better position for us for negotiations!" schtick, it just seemed more to reek of desperation to me, like they hadn't thought it through to a step 2, or a "what if the Russians don't take the bait?".

 

[contricusc]

For all of Zelensky's "bargaining chip, better position for us for negotiations!" schtick, it just seemed more to reek of desperation to me, like they hadn't thought it through to a step 2, or a "what if the Russians don't take the bait?".

The Kursk incursion achieved two very important strategic goals for Ukraine:

1) A huge boost of morale for Ukrainian forces, that also helps with recruitment, which greatly offsets any losses in Donbas

2) It proved to the Western allies that Russia will not go nuclear even in the event of losing territory, so all the excuses about the fear of escalation if Russia proper is targeted are being proven as just excuses

Everybody knows now that the US has no excuse to deny Ukraine the right to hit inside Russia using Western technology, and the only reason the US is doing that is because it is complicit with Putin and it doesn’t want Ukraine to win the war. Now the truth is laid bare to be seen by anyone, and Europeans can see what kind of ”ally” they rely on.

So the Kursk offensive has achieved two important goals, as it boosted Ukrainian morale and also clarified the situation when it comes to ally support. I just hope that Europeans will learn their lessons from this and will boost their defense industry, because the US is clearly not a reliable ally.

 

[SilverMachine]

The morale boost evaporated once they lost more territory to Russia in the east.

Your second point doesn't make any sense. The U.S. hasn't given that permission yet, to use U.S. weapons inside Russia. It may happen in future, but as of now hasn't, thus the Kursk offensive didn't "achieve" that.

Ukraine deployed a *lot* of awesome troops and materiel to Kursk that could have been better spent elsewhere, in the hopes that the Russians would divert their troops from Eastern Ukraine to deal with the guys in Kursk. Putin didn't fall for it and didn't take the bait, therefore Kursk didn't achieve shit beyond a momentary "we're awesome!" feeling among Ukrainian troops, and the cost of it was Russia more-easily taking the territory in the east.

It's truly that simple. Zelensky made a gamble, one not all of his generals and intel people supported, and it didn't pay off.

 

[Spitfire9]

Vladimir Putin is all too aware that economic pressure brought down the Soviet Union as he is forced to hike defence spending and slash social benefits to fund his war in Ukraine, according to Western officials.

Vladimir Putin 'fears Soviet-style collapse' amid pressures to fund Ukraine war

Warning comes after Russia’s government unveiled plans to hike defence spending to highest levels since the Cold War

www.standard.co.uk

The massive attack on Ukraine, which all expected to succeed in defeating the country in a few days or weeks, did not succeed. The prospects of a drawn out war succeeding were very poor once 'the West' decided to back the continuing existence of Ukraine as an independent state. At that point Russia should have started looking for ways to disentangle itself from a failed strategy. Putin chose not to do that.

The consequences of Putin choosing to continue with a strategy very unlikely to succeed were suffered by the world - disruption in trade, increased fuel prices, increased food prices etc. While the countries of the world have largely adapted to the new reality of a Russia cut off from its previous trading partners, Russia is now facing severe economic problems.

Inflation: near 10%
Central bank rate: 19%
Unemployment rate: lower than 2.5%

Russia has effectively run out of labour, resulting in a bidding war as the Russian army, defence producers and civil producers try to attract labour to their sector. Normally central banks raise interest rates to suppress inflation by reducing demand for goods and services. Demand for goods and services is not the problem here.

It does not help by further reducing one's labour stock by sending it to a place where it can be eliminated through death or incapacitation.