You do realize that at the rate Russia has captured land in Ukraine (the easiest land to take because it's closest to their borders and was home to many that wound up fighting for Russia), it would take Russia another 12+ years to take all of Ukraine. And it would actually take longer because Russia would lose ungodly amounts of equipment (which is dwindling quickly) taking Kharkiv and Kramtorks / Slovyansk in the East. Estimates are that Russia would have to be willing to ensure 20+ million casualties to sweep across the country East to West and try to take large Ukrainian cities along the way (let alone hold them)... Ukraine is not falling to Russia, the way the Russians dreamt it would. The war will, at some point, end in a negotiation, where Ukraine will surrender something like 15% of it's territory (including land swaps to leave Russia) and in turn they'll be allowed to join the EU and they'll get some kind of protection status from NATO that will be better than complete neutrality (which is what Putin wants so he can invade again later).
Extra sanctions by Trump will hurt, but what really hurts Russia the most is the constant re-supply of equipment from the West (especially America). The Americans has such high levels of manufacturing and their equipment is of such good build that the quality / quantity combination makes it difficult for the Russians to overcome, no matter how deep they dig into their Soviet stockpile.
I'll give you an example. Western sourcing believes that Russia can produce approximately 30 brand new BMP-3 IFVs per month. That is objectively impressive by all global production metrics. Anybody refutting that reality is a moron... Here is the problem though. All of the visually confirmed / geolocated sourcing shows Russia losing between 20-40 BMPs (including order models removed from storage) per week, depending on the intensity of fighting. The Russians are making small advancements but they're doing it into the teeth of highly capable, accurate artillery, land mines that are becoming more common and swarms of drones that are hunting MBTs / IFVs and APCs at an alarming rate. Therefore, while Russia might be producing 30 new BMP-3s every month, they're losing between 80-160 units each month, meaning that they have to dig deeper into their dwindling supplies of old BMP-2s and BMP-1s in order to mechanize their infantry into anything other than the useless death trap that is a MT-LB. When you start talking about running vehicle deficits of 50-110 units of your most important IFV every month, you can see the grim math. Russia simply cannot afford another 600-1000 BMPs lost this year. The shortages will become catastrophic to their offensive capability, which largely relies on infantry being carried close to the front before dismounting and attacking fortified positions in meat waves.
Trump's biggest impact would be refusing to send Kyiv more military aid despite having the PDA funding to do so and despite American production being at the point currently where they can send meaningful quantities ($500-$750 million usd in value) of equipment each month and fully replace that equipment with brand new stuff rolling off the production lines, keeping stocks at adequate levels... Trump very well stop any NEW military aid from being committed, and if he does, that will objectively hurt Ukraine significantly. There is no denying that. I've been saying for some time that if Trump and Rubio maintain their resolve and the West sends the following to Ukraine in 2025, Russia will be a in a really bad place with with their access to combat vehicles.
2025 MBTs For Ukraine
80 Leopard 1s
40 Leopard 2s
80 M1A1 Abrams
60 T-72s
60 T-64 Czech
2025 IFVs For Ukraine
200 Bradley M2-ODS
100 Marder
100 CV-90
50 BTR-4
50 Rosomak
50 BMP-2
40 Lynx
40 AMX-10RC
2025 APCs / MRAPs For Ukraine
100 Stryker
100 MaxxPro
300 M113
100 FFG
100 VAB
50 LAV 6.0 ASCV
50 BMPC Kirpi
2025 Artillery For Ukraine
36 M777
54 M109A6/L
36 RCH-155
18 Panzerhaubitze 2000
36 CAESAR
36 Bohdana 2
12 Zuzana 2
12 DITA Czech
All of that is highly sustainable for the West as they ramp up production lines and make significant orders for new equipment to replace their aging stuff. The above would significantly replenish exisiting Ukrainian brigades, allowing Ukraine to train adequate manpower to replace losses, rather than focusing on creating new brigades. Ideally, you could rotate exisiting brigades away from the front for rest, reconstitution and training. When they returned to to the front they'd have an entirely new supply of Western equipment at their disposal, while Russia continues to face awful attrition to their own equipment.
