Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Soldier30]

A Ukrainian serviceman of the Lugansk assault regiment filmed the moment when a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier ran over a mine during a battle in the city of Toretsk. A Russian UAV also recorded the moment when the vehicle ran over a mine. It is worth noting that such combinations of footage are rare. The M113 armored personnel carrier was developed in the United States in 1959 and was produced until 2007.

 

[Soldier30]

Episode of the rescue of a Russian Ural truck from an attack by a Ukrainian FPV drone. The video was filmed by Russian servicemen of the 3rd motorized rifle division in the Luhansk region, near the village of Melovatki. The drone is being fired at from small arms at a long distance. The drone was destroyed above the truck itself. Judging by the video, the truck was not damaged.

 

[Spitfire9]

A direct effect of the US tariffs is that trade with many countries is very likely to fall, denting the GDP of those exporting countries. An indirect effect is that world demand for crude may fall, resulting in the price of crude falling and Russia being forced to sell its crude at a lower price. That would make it more difficult for Russia to finance the war, increasing the pressure on Russia to reduce spending on the war.

In the 2025 budget defence spending was forecast to increase, not decrease so I think that Trump has unintentionally made it more difficult for Putin to continue the war.

 

[Soldier30]

We publish archive footage of a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber dropping bombs at an ultra-low altitude in Ukraine. Presumably, FAB-250 bombs were dropped. The location of the shooting is not reported. It is worth noting that low-altitude bombing is no longer used now, as bombs with UMPK have appeared. The launch of a Ukrainian air defense missile is visible after the plane, whether the plane was shot down is unknown, the video does not show. The FAB-250 aerial bomb can be dropped from a height of 50 meters.

 

[Soldier30]

The Russian army has started using FPV drones of the Molniya type in Ukraine, equipped with an incendiary warhead. Technical information about the Molniya-1 UAV is in the link to the video in the comments to the video, there is no technical information yet about the Molniya-2 UAV. The video shows a Molniya- UAV strike on a temporary stay point of the Ukrainian army located in one of the buildings. The location of the shooting is not reported.

 

[Relic]

The price of crude oil continues to tank. It's down about 3% in overnight trading and if the markets react the way we're expecting tomorrow, it might drop 5% in 25 hours, after plumeting sharply last week.

This is music to my ears. Russia doesn't care at all about it's people. They're more than happy to toss their men (young and old) into a wood chipper, in order to support Putin's expansionist desires. The number of fatalities endured by Russia will not bring an end to Russia's aggression, but you know what will? Oil prices. The Russians are already being stretched incredibly thin economically. Interest rates for borrowing money in Russia are in the range of 20%, and have been for some time. Inflation has continued to ravage the country and the people have lost tremendous buying power over the course of the war. The death knell would be oil prices crashing down near $50.00 per barrel, because Russian Urals would trade at a further $5.00-$10.00 discount to that, which would be a devastating blow to Russia's cash flow (especially it's foreign currency liquidity). In that scenario, Putin would basically be forced to negotiate an end to the war, or risk Russia falling off the cliff into a significant financial depression that could take years to recover from.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier running into a mine barrier near the settlement of Kondrashovka, in the Kupyansk direction. The mine barrier is made of three TM-62 mines. The M113 armored personnel carrier was developed in the USA in 1959 and was produced until 2007, a review is available on the channel. At the end of the video, there is an insert showing a Ukrainian T-64 tank running into mines near the settlement of Yampol, in the Krasnolimansk direction.

 

[Spitfire9]

West Texas crude below $60 dollars a barrel 0920 GMT 7th April.

Crude Oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Crude Oil fell to 83.44 USD/Bbl on August 28, 2026, down 0.11% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil's price has fallen 1.21%, but it is still 30.35% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this...

tradingeconomics.com

That is below the EU price cap of $60 per barrel. I guess the EU needs to lower the price cap.

Countries know they can buy Russian crude at a discount to the world market price for crude. It will be interesting to see what price they can squeeze out of Russia now for its crude.

 

[Relic]

Today Norway announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $454 million usd. The entirety of the package is geared towards the purchase of artillery shells and ammunition. The breakdown is as follows:

- $363 million usd is earmarked for the purchase of 155mm and 152mm artillery shells via the Czech led initiative.

- $91 million usd is earmarked for the European Peave Fund to purchase artillery shells from 3rd party sources around the world.

Norway to allocate around $454 million for artillery ammunition for Ukraine

"We are now strengthening our cooperation with the EU to provide Ukraine with, among other things, more artillery ammunition. Europe must assume greater responsibility for supporting Ukraine in its fight for freedom," said Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Relic]

Russian Ural oil traded between $52-$53 per barrel today, dropping by more than $8 per barrel in a 3 day stretch. Why is this important?

The 2025 Russian budget was built on the expectation of $70 oil ($113 billion usd in government revenues), however, only 4 months into the year, oil prices have been underwhelming and as a result, Russia's budget defecits have grown substantially. Russian oil revenues fell by more than 17% year-over-year in the month of March, amounting to $12.8 billion usd in lost revenue.

Meanwhile, Russia's prime interest rate sits at 21%, with the Government being forced to pay back immense interest to borrow money. Corporate tax rate in Russia climbed to 25% to raise extra money for the ear effort. At the same time, Russia's 2024 interest rate was 9.54% and is on track to be 8%-9%, again, in 2025. The average Russian citizen will experience approximately 25% inflation over 3 years, with little wage growth and interest rates so high that borrowing money is next to impossible. Putin has truly fucked his people.

This is not sustainable for Russia over the medium term. If Ural oil prices stay considerably below $60 per barrel for any extensive period of time, the Russian budget defecit will grow out of hand and they'll have no choice but to reduce spending in order to avoid irreversible damage to their economy.

Russia's Oil and Gas Revenues Fall 17% Year-on-Year in March - The Moscow Times

Russia's budget revenues from oil and gas fell 17% year-over-year to 1.08 trillion rubles ($12.8 billion) in March, the Finance Ministry reported Thursday.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Kremlin panics as Russian Urals crude oil price nears crucial $50 mark

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attributed the price decline to "the US decision to introduce tariffs for most countries in the world."

kyivindependent.com

Russia’s budget for 2025: war above all

On 21 November, the State Duma approved, at the third reading, the draft federal budget for 2025 and the general parameters of the 2026–27 budgets. Expenditure will increase for another consecutive year, primarily due to spending on national defence rising at a double-digit rate and internal...

www.osw.waw.pl

 

[contricusc]

Russian Ural oil traded between $52-$53 per barrel today, dropping by more than $8 per barrel in a 3 day stretch. Why is this important?

If oil continues to go down, the discount of Russion oil should also grow bigger, because if there is less demand for oil, importers can become picky. If there is a global recession and demand for oil goes down, guess which is the first oil to exit the market (or the one needing huge discounts to be able to still find buyers)?

 

[Relic]

If oil continues to go down, the discount of Russion oil should also grow bigger, because if there is less demand for oil, importers can become picky. If there is a global recession and demand for oil goes down, guess which is the first oil to exit the market (or the one needing huge discounts to be able to still find buyers)?

The likes of China and India will continue to buy oil from Russia in order to keep the trading relationship strong. That said, we're heading into the summer months when natural gas is already cheap. There are plenty of countries that could squeeze Russia for their natural gas and force them to sell it near break even.

Here is the reality. Russia is planning for approximately $145 Billion usd to be spent on their military budget in 2025. At the same time, they had budgeted for $113 Billion usd in oil revenues ($70 usd ber barrel), which would have paid for the majority of the military budget. If those O&G revenues fall to $85-$90 Billion usd, a massive hole of approximately $26-$31 Billion usd is punched into a Russia defecit that is already being proped up by 21% interest rates (including for Federal borrowing) and 9%+ inflation.

The Russian people are going to leave this war even more broke than when they entered it and the Government's reserves of tangible assets such as foreign currency and gold will be significantly depleted, while the ruble continues to not be worth the paper it's printed on.

I highly doubt they'll agree to do it, but if the EU were to confiscate and liquidate the $300'ish Billion usd worth of Russian assets held in EU financial institutions, Russia would be exceptionally screwed. Ukraine would be able to meet their annual budget defecits for the next 5 years, with near infinite (relative to the timeframe) funds available to mass produce the military equipment, at scale, to ensure that the Russian war effort is soundly defeated.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian FPV drones attacking a Ukrainian M1A1SA Abrams tank. The tank was used by the Ukrainian 47th Magura Brigade. The video was filmed in the Belgorod region of Russia, the tank was moving towards the village of Demidovka to support the evacuation of the wounded. Judging by the knocked-down track, the tank ran over a mine, after which it was attacked by Russian FPV drones. The M1A1SA Abrams tank is made in the USA, a review is available on the channel. To evacuate the Ukrainian M1A1SA Abrams tank, a BREM-1 left the Sumy region of Ukraine, which was also destroyed by Russian FPV drones

 

[mTT]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1909586461029965871

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the use in Ukraine of the Russian M-28NM helicopter, guided missile X-39 LMU, also called "Product 305". In this video, the missile was used against the Ukrainian army command post located in one of the houses. The second part of the video, the strike of the X-39 LMUR missile, against the support of the railway bridge over the Dnieper River. The Russian helicopter Ka-52M can also use X-39 missiles.

 

[Relic]

Belgium announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today, valued at $1.1 Billion usd. The Belgians also announced that they'll continue contributing $1.1 Billion per year in military aid until the war is over. The full extent of the 2025 package has not yet been released, but it is known to include the following:

- 4 F-16 Fighter Jets
- Air Launched Munitions
- Artillery Shells (Via Czech Innitiave)
- Small Arms Ammunition
- Spare Parts
- Cash For Ukraine's Domestic Arms Industry

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belgian-pm-pledges-1-bln-new-aid-package-2025-ukraine-2025-04-08/

Belgium pledges € 1 billion annual military aid to Ukraine, signs defense production deals - Euromaidan Press

Belgian Prime Minister De Wever announces ten defense companies has established manufacturing ties in Ukraine as Brussels seeks to bolster European security.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Relic]

Wow, oil down another 4% right now on fears of and American / Chinese trade war and an associated drop in oil demand globally. Ural oil is threatening to go below $50 per barrel.

If this continues, it's genuinely catastrophic for Russia's ability to fund this war in the medium / long term. Russia CANNOT spend $145 Billion usd per year on a war while floating 21% interest rates and 9% domestic inflation. They need every cent of the $113 Billion usd profit they expected from the oil revenues they budgeted at $70 per barrel. At $50 per barrel that revenue stream gets crushed and their debt skyrockets.

 

[Spitfire9]

Wow, oil down another 4% right now on fears of and American / Chinese trade war and an associated drop in oil demand globally. Ural oil is threatening to go below $50 per barrel.

If this continues, it's genuinely catastrophic for Russia's ability to fund this war in the medium / long term. Russia CANNOT spend $145 Billion usd per year on a war while floating 21% interest rates and 9% domestic inflation. They need every cent of the $113 Billion usd profit they expected from the oil revenues they budgeted at $70 per barrel. At $50 per barrel that revenue stream gets crushed and their debt skyrockets.

With high interest rates the profitability of Russian companies is falling. That means less corporation tax payable.

Listening to economist Konstantin, a Russian with contacts in Russia, he reports that 20% of Russia's road haulage companies have shut down. Is that because the business has transferred to rail? No - he reports that the tonnage shipped by rail has fallen for all sectors except fertilisers. Less goods being shipped signals reduced production to me. Has stagflation arrived in the non-military economy?

In the 2025 budget each barrel of Russian crude is expected to sell at an average price of 70 USD, generating revenues of 113 bn USD. Those revenues would drop by about 34 bn USD if Russian crude sold at an average price of 50 USD per barrel in 2025. Crude price is currently under 58 USD per barrel.

 

[Relic]

With high interest rates the profitability of Russian companies is falling. That means less corporation tax payable.

Listening to economist Konstantin, a Russian with contacts in Russia, he reports that 20% of Russia's road haulage companies have shut down. Is that because the business has transferred to rail? No - he reports that the tonnage shipped by rail has fallen for all sectors except fertilisers. Less goods being shipped signals reduced production to me. Has stagflation arrived in the non-military economy?

In the 2025 budget each barrel of Russian crude is expected to sell at an average price of 70 USD, generating revenues of 113 bn USD. Those revenues would drop by about 34 bn USD if Russian crude sold at an average price of 50 USD per barrel in 2025. Crude price is currently under 58 USD per barrel.

And Russian Urals sell at about a $10 per barrel discount to WTI. It's essentially Russia getting squeezed by China and India because of Western sanctions on Russian oil. In practice, Russian Urals are basically around $50 per barrel right now, maybe slightly less in bulk purchases... If this continues for any extended period of time it's going to be an enormous blow to the Russian economy, especially it's foreign liquidity. Bond rates are going to be insane and inflation will be stupid high.

 

[Relic]

A significant development that I've been tracking and have simply failed to write a long form post about in a while is Ukraine's incredible success in the development and production of the 2S22 Bohdana 2 howitzer. Production of the self-propelled model has now surpassed 20 units per month according to multiple sources, limited only by available chasis. Ukraine is now using 2 seperate chasis to support increased production.

What's more is that Ukraine has now launched production of a towed model as well, with a production target of 40 combined self-propelled and towed units per month. The Bohdana 2 seriously outranges all Russian conventional artillery with the exception of the limited number of Malva units they have in their inventories. 155mm artillery shells (which Bohdana 2 uses) are simply a better quality, longer range and more accurate munition than the 122mm and 152mm shells that the Russians.

Most important is the cost of production for the Bohdana 2. The self-propelled variant costs between $2.5-$2.8 million usd per unit. The towed version is expected to cost approximately $1.5 million usd per unit. Both of these figures are extremely impressive. The self-propelled model costs less than half of one French CAESAar howitzer and about 25% of a German Panzerhaubitze 2000. Lower labour and material costs in Ukraine drag down the price of production significantly, as does the lack of "export" markup attached to them due to the fact that they are domestically made.

How has Ukraine afforded to mass fund the development and subsequent production of the Bohdana 2? They haven't. The overwhelming majority of production funding comes from the "Danish model" in which Western countries that are low on military aid of their own to send Ukraine instead contribute funds to a pool that Denmark collects and uses to fund Ukrainian domestic defense products. The fund has received more than $7 Billion usd in known funding during 2024 and 2025, led my Denmark , Norway , Canada , Sweden , Iceland , The Netherlands , Belgium Lithuania and grants from the European Union .

The Bohdana 2 project has been such a success that Ukraine projects to be able to sustain approximately 75% of it's artillery losses with domestic production alone, a cost as little as $80-$90 million usd per month, which a a very small price for the countries contributing to the fund. Meanwhile, Ukraine will continue to receive CAEASAR from France, Panzerhaubitze 2000 and RCH-155 from Germany, Archer from Sweden, Zuzanna 2 from Slovakia and Dita from Czechia for the remainder of it's artillery needs, as well and undisclosed number of Soviet made howitzers countries such as Poland and Finland.