You say I have no clue, but you just reinforce what I stated. Switzerland is not in the EU and NATO, that’s a fact. And it is by choice, not because it was not welcome. When you refuse to join the EU and NATO, you lose prioriy.
Ukraine has asked to join both the EU and NATO. Unlike Switzerland, which was allowed in but didn’t want to join, Ukraine has the will to join, but was still not accepted.
Ukrainians want to be in NATO and the EU, so of course we need to think about the future. Strategies ae about the future.
Of course the war had a negative effect on the European economy, but it is a negligible effect compared to COVID for example, or to the systemic issues I mentioned.
You don’t give up on freedom and lose a war because of some negligible economic effects.
You are delusional and have no gasp of history. If you think a military alliance like NATO is a guarantee of safety against Russia, I have a bridge to sell you.
Look at how Trump is viewing NATO, and how he treats his European “allies”. Look at JD Vance’s stance on Europe or at Pete Hegseth. Are you that certain that they would let the US go to war with Russia to defend Estonia?
Also, the same people who think Russia will never attack a NATO member are the ones who thought Russia is not crazy to invade Ukraine.
Europe needs to be strong by itself, and not rely on the US for its defence. If Russia is allowed to conquer Ukraine, it will be emboldened to try to take more, and it would believe NATO is weak and won’t do anything if they go for Moldova or Estonia.
If Russia would be defeated in Ukraine and its economy crippled by tougher sanctions and strikes on its industrial capaciy and oil refineries, it would collapse economically. This could lead to a revolution, or civil war, or separatist wars. The communist revolution came after Russia’s military failures in WW1.
If Russia’s military is weakened and humiliated while the economy collapses, this is a recipe for the disintegration of the Russian Empire into smaller states, which should be the goal of the EU, to esolve the Russian problem for the long term.
Also, the EU should try to force regime change in Belarus as well, in order to take that country as well from Russia’s hands.
A collapsing Russia may result in anarchy and chaos and another plutocratic regime like the one of Boris Yeltsin, which would be ideal for Europe as it would open possibilities like buying Kaliningrad and getting Russian resources on the cheap.
The “not insane” thing was also invoked by those who said Russia will never invade Ukraine. How did that turn out?
While 5% is indeed a lot, it is not as much as you paint it to be. Most European countries have a government budget of around 35%-40% of GDP. So 5% of GDP means 12% to 15% of government expenditure.
European countries already have bloated government spending, and they spend a lot more on useless things like welfare programs, which do more harm than good.
While under normal circumstances 2-3% of GDP would be enough for defence, the current situation has urgency and Europe needs to catch up for years of underspending, and it needs to boost its MIC, and for this you need oversized spending for a few years.
Again, basing your military strategy on hope and wishful thinking is not smart. Your whole strategy is based on two hopes: that Russia is not insane to attack NATO, and that Trump will be out soon and the US will go back to how it was before.
When planning your military strategy, you plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
And those peace talks must happen with a collapsed Russia that is willing to make huge concessions because of its precarious position. As long as Russia is not in a very bad position, there should be no talk with it.
Negotiations should start when Russia is willing to give up on all its gains just to stop the war and avoid further losses.
They must lose Crimea after this war, so that they will understand that it was a big mistake to invade Ukraine, and their territory should end up smaller than before the invasion.
Allowing Russia to gain any territory by starting this war is a recipe for future war. You don’t understand Russia if you think otherwise.
