Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[blackjack]

Russians are calling the agreement a "basis" or a "foundation" meaning they would be asking for more shit from that agreement.

 

[blackjack]

I am pretty sure the oil attack on Kazakhstan works against the interests of the US trying to drive a wedge between Russia and Kazakhstan.

 

[Relic]

The Netherlands announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today in the form of a $290 million usd contribution to a PURL package from the United States . PURL packages are valued at $500 million usd, therefore, the Dutch will be teaming up with an undisclosed nation (at least to this point) who will provide the other $210 million usd to complete the purchase. The package will will consist of the following:

- Air Defense Missiles (NASAMS/Patriot)
- AIM-9 and AIM-120 Missiles (F-16s)
- Recon and Kamikaze Drones
- Sustainment and Spare Parts for F-16s

F-16 ammunition, air defenses — Netherlands announces $290 million Ukraine aid package

The Netherlands on Dec. 1 pledged to purchase U.S. arms for Kyiv worth 250 million euros ($290 million) under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL).

kyivindependent.com

Dutch gov't pledges 250 mln euros military aid to Ukraine

Dutch gov't pledges 250 mln euros military aid to Ukraine-

english.news.cn

 

[Relic]

Italy has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, it's 12th package of the war. In keeping with Italian "tradition" the contents of the package have not been divulged, although anonymous sources have stated that the package contains, among other things, armored vehicles and SAMP/T air defense missiles.

Italy also signaled that they will join the list of countries contributing to the PURL initiative to buy U.S. made weapons directly for Ukraine. The Italians did not announce how much money they'd be donating to the PURL purchase.

Italy approved new package of military assistance for Ukraine

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[Relic]

Today Luxembourg announced a $17 million usd pledge towards a PURL package from the United States .

Meanwhile, Germany , Norway and Poland indicated that they will team up to jointly fund a PURL package in December.

Politico is reporting that Australia and New Zealand are expected to jointly announce their co-funding of a package in the coming days.

Mark Rutte has indeed indicated that the goal is for Ukraine's allies to contribute AT LEAST $1 Billion usd per month to the PURL initiative in 2026. That would include the purchase of 24 packages, valued $500 million usd each. Rutte also noted that while the majority of Europe's key players + allies in Canada , Australia and New Zealand have joined the funding initiative, some key funders have not yet made their intentions known. Italy has agreed to provide funds, but hasn't detailed how much support they are willing to contribute. Meanwhile, Britain and France have not yet contributed to PURL, instead focusing on domestically made weapons for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Greece , Portugal and the Czech Republic are examples of mid sized European countries Rutte and the rest of the EU hope to convince to step up.

If Ukraine's Allies are going to fund the $12 Billion usd project in 2026, I suspect it would like something like the following....

Germany : $2 Billion usd
Norway : $1.25 Billion usd
Canada : $1.25 Billion usd
Netherlands : $1Billion usd
Spain : $1 Billion usd
Sweden : $750 Million usd
Denmark : $750 Million usd
Britain : $500 Million usd
France : $500 Million usd
Italy : $500 Million usd
Finland : $500 Million usd
Poland : $500 Million usd
Belgium : $250 Million usd
Czech Republic : $250 Million usd
Australia : $250 Million usd
Greece : $250 Million usd
Portugal : $100 Million usd
Latvia : $100 Million usd
Lithuania : $100 Million usd
Croatia : $100 Million usd
Estonia : $50 Million usd
Luxembourg : $50 Million usd
New Zealand : $50 Million usd
Bulgaria : $50 Million usd
Romania : $50 Million usd

 

[Relic]

As expected, Australia and New Zealand have jointly announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $110 million usd. The package consists of the following...

- Tactical Air Defense RADARS
- Military Engineering Equipment
- $65 million usd contribution to the PURL Initiative to purchase weapons from USA for Ukraine.

Note: Ukraine is also in conversation with Australia surrounding the transfer of additional Bushmaster APCs, as well as Australia's soon-to-be-retired fleet of Eurocopter / Airbus Tiger attack helicopters.

Australia announces $95m in cash and equipment for Ukraine

The package includes $50 million in cash for a weapons fund, $43 million worth of material such as munitions and radars and fresh sanctions on Russia.

www.afr.com

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[Oublious]

Kushner and Witkoff are now talking in Russia, what kind sell out are they talking about?

 

[Spitfire9]

President Vladimir Putin has warned again that Ukrainian troops must withdraw from Ukraine's eastern Donbas region or Russia will seize it, rejecting any compromise over how to end the war in Ukraine.

"Either we liberate these territories by force, or Ukrainian troops will leave these territories," he told India Today. Moscow controls around 85% of Donbas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out ceding territory.

Putin says Russia will take Donbas by force or Ukraine's troops will withdraw

The Russian leader's comments come as US and Ukrainian negotiators are due to hold a new round of talks.

www.bbc.co.uk

So, no peace in Ukraine for some time. When did Russian-backed fighters start trying to take the Donbas? Was it 2014?

About oil/gas revenues:

Russia's oil export revenues, measured in rubles, have plunged 50% this year, tumbling from the equivalent of 7.6% of GDP to just 3.7%, according to Goldman's analysis.

The bank's report landed just as the Russian Finance Ministry disclosed that oil and gas tax revenues fell 34% from a year ago, underscoring the fiscal strain.

Russia is still exporting plenty of oil — but earning far less to fund its war on Ukraine

Russia's oil export revenues, measured in rubles, have plunged 50% this year, according to Goldman Sachs.

www.businessinsider.com

I guess Russia's economy is now contracting. I think that figures released end January will show that Q4 2025 economic output was lower than Q4 2024 economic output... if the figures are not doctored. There is some speculation that inflation figures published are understating the real level of inflation. For example, officially inflation in October was 7.7%. Many analysts place the true inflation rate at a far higher level.

 

[contricusc]

I think that figures released end January will show that Q4 2025 economic output was lower than Q4 2024 economic output... if the figures are not doctored.

All economic figures released by Russia are fake. Lying it’s ingrained in their culture.

 

[Spitfire9]

A picture is worth a thousand words...

Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Russia expanded 0.60 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Spitfire9]

If Ukraine's Allies are going to fund the $12 Billion usd project in 2026, I suspect it would like something like the following....

Germany : $2 Billion usd
Norway : $1.25 Billion usd
Canada : $1.25 Billion usd
Netherlands : $1Billion usd
Spain : $1 Billion usd
Sweden : $750 Million usd
Denmark : $750 Million usd
Britain : $500 Million usd
France : $500 Million usd
Italy : $500 Million usd
Finland : $500 Million usd
Poland : $500 Million usd
Belgium : $250 Million usd
Czech Republic : $250 Million usd
Australia : $250 Million usd
Greece : $250 Million usd
Portugal : $100 Million usd
Latvia : $100 Million usd
Lithuania : $100 Million usd
Croatia : $100 Million usd
Estonia : $50 Million usd
Luxembourg : $50 Million usd
New Zealand : $50 Million usd
Bulgaria : $50 Million usd
Romania : $50 Million usd

My congratulations and gratitude for all the research needed to come up with those numbers.

Short of the wheels coming off the Russian economy - which looks increasingly probable to me in 2026 - the war will probably continue. I guess that Ukraine's war costs (weapons, essential infrastructure repairs to keep the country functioning, army/air force personnel costs etc) are 5+ billion USD a month. Could be 10 billion USD a month. Whereas there are many analyses made publicly where Russia's economy, finances and war spending are concerned, I have seen none regarding Ukraine.

Unfortunately generous European support of 10 or 20 or 30 or 40 billion USD in 2026 looks unlikely to be enough to keep Ukrainian resistance adequately financed, now that the US has halted support for Ukraine and sees the place as a potential profit centre.

IMO Europe needs to wake up, pull out all the stops and really commit to a Russian defeat on the battlefield and to the destruction of Russia economically. If Europe does not grasp the nettle financially speaking and provide Ukraine with massive support now it is likely it will end up spending hundreds of billions USD more in the next few years than if it helped Ukraine now.

 

[blackjack]

Losses

What is factually known

1. Anyone that calls a ceasefire 1st contradicts the statements of what their losses are in comparison to their adversaries of why the so called "winners" need a time break while the other doesn't.

2. The U.S. made the concessions for Ukraine; there was a tweet that Zelensky supported it, Europe then comes in and makes disagreements on it, Zelensky pulls out and sides with Europe. While the U.S. is playing bad cop and Europe is playing good cop no one has asked the worst cop yet being Russia on the proposed peace deal. If Ukraine was winning Zelensky would have not initially agreed to the US before listening to Europe to pull out of it.

3. Orban has been caught a few times with Trump mocking the idea of Ukraine's victory like Trump asking if he thinks Ukraine can win he responds miracles can happen and Trump just went along with that statement. The US has funded more than half of NATO's spending, them leaving the responsibilities to Europe in 2027 suggests they have some kind of Intel in how they think this war will end if they thought about "shifting responsibilities" like they no longer see a point in trying to shift east and doubt anyone cares about Moldova after Ukraine to be of any strategic use.

4. Blinken atleast during the Biden administration suggested in November 2024 that Ukraine lowers the mobilization age to 18 before they let congress pass any kind of large spending bill. Assuming if there was an agreement it would have sparked headlines everywhere of manpower shortage that even the most bias news sources couldn't cover it up to make anything positive out of it.

It doesn't matter who would have won the US election, one side would have just speeded up the war to end faster (not in Ukraine's favor since they disagreed with passing another mobilization law to lower the age) The other side that did win suggest they offer concessions without asking if the Russians agreed to it who would have obviously asked for more. I personally gave up listening to 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and maybe 2026 of the Russian economy crashing any day now. The further hilarious part is Syria's new leader asking Russia for some kind of military assistance against Israel.

 

[Iskander]

While the question was not directed at me, I would like to add that I share your opinion about Russia’s economy, and I think Trump’s current attempt at ending the war is a desperate attempt to save Russia from total economic collapse.

Trump is trying to save Putin from bankruptcy, in the same way that Russian banks saved Trump decades ago from his own bankruptcy.

It is important that Europe blocks the attempts of Trump’s administration to force Ukraine to capitulate, because if the current “peace” talks collapse, Russia will not be able to avoid economic collapse.

I believe the widespread belief in Ukraine about Trump's possible secret ties to Moscow is most likely a conspiracy theory (although I acknowledge that Trump sympathizes with Putin).

Trump is a businessman and views geopolitics from a businessman's perspective. Putin understands this and offers him all sorts of grandiose projects, such as vast oil and gas fields worth trillions of dollars. Unfortunately, Whitkoff, Trump's representative in negotiations with the Kremlin, is also a businessman.
Trump also lacks empathy, and despite his claims to have ended eight wars in eight months, he seems more concerned with golf than with matters of war and peace, including in Ukraine.

I have no doubt that in all of Whitkoff's meetings with Putin's representative Dmitrov, where Putin slyly persuaded Trump, the conversations revolved more around "joint" business projects than about Ukraine. Putin is trying to deceive Trump and bring Ukraine under his complete control at any cost. Putin has no interest in these so-called "joint projects." After all, even before Russia's attack on Ukraine, several major joint Russian-American projects existed!
Where are they?!
What happened to them?!
Putin, furious at the sanctions, simply canceled them.
These grandiose projects will suffer the same fate.
They say Trump has already gone bankrupt in business four times.
I hope he doesn't bankrupt America.

 

[mehmed beg]

My congratulations and gratitude for all the research needed to come up with those numbers.

Short of the wheels coming off the Russian economy - which looks increasingly probable to me in 2026 - the war will probably continue. I guess that Ukraine's war costs (weapons, essential infrastructure repairs to keep the country functioning, army/air force personnel costs etc) are 5+ billion USD a month. Could be 10 billion USD a month. Whereas there are many analyses made publicly where Russia's economy, finances and war spending are concerned, I have seen none regarding Ukraine.

Unfortunately generous European support of 10 or 20 or 30 or 40 billion USD in 2026 looks unlikely to be enough to keep Ukrainian resistance adequately financed, now that the US has halted support for Ukraine and sees the place as a potential profit centre.

IMO Europe needs to wake up, pull out all the stops and really commit to a Russian defeat on the battlefield and to the destruction of Russia economically. If Europe does not grasp the nettle financially speaking and provide Ukraine with massive support now it is likely it will end up spending hundreds of billions USD more in the next few years than if it helped Ukraine now.

Well this might sound a bit odd , but Spain, Italy, Netherlands and Slovenia are withdrawing from Eurovision for the sake Israel.
So only what really matters to the European leaders is Israel and their own chairs, it is pretty obvious.
So war will go on as long as the Jewery wants it. How much of damage they want to induce to Europe, basically that what it is.
Of course, that is suitable for for Russia. Any lie , any nonesense just to grab something. These things happened before.
This i just prolonged agony.

 

[contricusc]

Trump is a businessman and views geopolitics from a businessman's perspective. Putin understands this and offers him all sorts of grandiose projects, such as vast oil and gas fields worth trillions of dollars. Unfortunately, Whitkoff, Trump's representative in negotiations with the Kremlin, is also a businessman.
Trump also lacks empathy, and despite his claims to have ended eight wars in eight months, he seems more concerned with golf than with matters of war and peace, including in Ukraine.

While Trump is a businessman and sees everything through a transactional point of view, he has a weak spot for Putin. He is simply too soft whenever he speaks to Putin. I do’t believe in conspiracy theories that Putin has something on Trump, but I do believe that Trump is a very frustrated beta male who feels very insecure whenever he meets strongmen.

Trump can be very aggressive and arrogant when he confronts democratic leaders, but he is very attentive with dictators. With Kim Jong Un, he went from being publicly called a ”dotard” to granting him a meeting.

As for Whitkoff, he is just pathetic. The Russians humiliate him whenever they have the chance, by keeping him waiting for hours before he can meet his master, and he continues to kiss Putin’s backside.

 

[blackjack]

Even if Trump didn't win the elections, like the Biden administration Harris would have kept pushing Ukraine to lower the mobilization age before passing any huge spending bill, but Ukraine pretty much declining their last request just shows that Ukraine's leadership is more desperate to cling to power as long as they can then it ever was about winning the war.

Before anyone accuses my 4th point that I am lying the information is still all archived on the web.

The funny part is that I think Zelensky is happier that Trump won because the other administration began pressuring them to lower the draft age which would have pushed the war to ending faster then slower.