Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Huelague]

It's looks increasingly likely that later this week the European Union will free up a loan mechanism for Ukraine of approximately $200 Billion usd, that will be paid back using confiscated Russian financial assets. At $100 Billion usd per year, the funds are designed to cover 2/3 of Ukraine's Government and military budget for the two year period of 2026 and 2027. If the plan passes later this week, step 1 in Europe's plan to take the invasion of Ukraine into their collective hands will be complete. As Donald Trump prepares significantly sever the U.S. role in Europe's defense matters, this will mark beginning of Europe fighting for itself.

With the Russian asset backed loan in place, the next step is to ask individual EU countries + Canada , Britain and Norway to continue to dig deep and support Ukraine use their own budgetary funds to augment the loan and increase the military support to Ukraine through programs such as PURL, the Czech Ammunition Initiative and the Danish model of direct support for Ukraine's domestic defense industry, where it is cheaper to build many weapons than it is in the West.

Below are some figures detailing planned support from Ukraine's Allies in 2026, over and above the loan being discussed.

Germany : $13.5 Billion usd
Norway : $8.4 Billion usd
Britain : $6.0 Billion usd
Sweden : $4.8 Billion usd
Netherlands : $4.5 Billion usd
Canada : $3.0 Billion usd
France : $2.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Italy : $1.5-2.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Denmark : $1.5 Billion usd
Spain : $1.0 Billion usd
Belgium : $1.0 Billion usd
Poland : $1.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Portugal : $250 Million usd
Lithuania : $250 Million usd
Latvia : $120 Million usd
Estonia : 117 Million usd

Total: $49 Billion usd

These are the numbers that have been made public to this point. Numerous other countries have not yet detailed what their respective financial support will look like. It's safe to assume that the support will rise to over $50 Billion usd, however.

If we are to assume that Ukraine gets approximately $100 Billion usd via the Russian asset loan, and a further $50 Billion in funding EU countries, they are set to receive an influx of approximately $150 Billion usd in 2026, and a similar number in 2027. That's a massive surge funds, thr likes of which Ukraine has not received in any year of this war. If there was ever an opportunity for Ukraine to significantly increase the strength of their military via an insane weapons buying spree, 2026 and 2027 are the years in which to do it.

So much about the financial aspect of the situation. Now, how much of the assets will be used to fight Russians and how much will be used to build mansions? Next question, if they really want to use this money buy weapon system, who will use this? The million Ukraine refugees in Europe?

 

[Relic]

So much about the financial aspect of the situation. Now, how much of the assets will be used to fight Russians and how much will be used to buiatld mansions? Next question, if they really want to use this money buy weapon system, who will use this? The million Ukraine refugees in Europe?

Lol, I know your questions are rhetorical, but I'll bite anyways.

1. There is corresponding mechanism being proposed that an EU monitoring apparatus tracks the specific use of funds and ensure they're used as intended. This was proposed after the most recent $100 million usd corruption scandal in Ukraine. Everybody knows who Ukraine is. Far from a perfect country plagued some of the same Soviet style corruption that can be found in Russia. That said, they're a country battling to clean it up and they're actively arresting and jailing people as they're getting caught and they're working with international security intelligence agencies to help overcome the pervasive issue.

2. Ukraine has a standing military of approximately 800,000 personnel. Some 6 million people have fled Ukraine since the outset of the war from a pre-war population of 43 million people. Even counting the estimated war dead, there are 36-37 million people living in Ukraine. It's still the 8th most populous country in Europe despite all they been through over the last 4 years. Ukraine has a shortage of soldiers at the front. That's well captured. Largely, however, that has to do with badly needed pay reforms (something large scale funding would help solve) and bad rotational policy and an unwillingness to drop the conscription age. Many of Ukraine's manning problems could be solved in under a years if targeted reforms were put into place.

 

[MaciekRS]

Our foreign minister

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001187246402130411

Also Sikorski about russia
"Sikorski: “What makes Russia unfriendly is simply, it's not just the person of vladimir putin, it is Russia's state ideology. Russia had its episode when the heroes were Sakharov, right, the dissidents, and now it's the Tsars again, and the most expansionist and cruel ones—Stalin and so on. A country that has such a state ideology is by definition a threat to its neighbors. Every American administration learns about Russia and Europe anew. I think every American administration believes that if we talk to these Russians in a friendlier way, they will reciprocate. And they always pay back in the same coin. We know this in our region. We, as Europe, the European part of NATO, have doubled our defense spending since the first Trump administration. If the allies do most of what they themselves committed to, by the end of the decade we will have military capabilities that will be sufficient to deter putin."

 

[contricusc]

If the allies do most of what they themselves committed to, by the end of the decade we will have military capabilities that will be sufficient to deter putin."

Europe’s military problem is not solved by only pouring more money into conventional forces. European countries need to make nuclear weapons, and ICBMs. Unless they do that, the only European countries that matter will remain France, and to a lesser degree the UK (which is dependent on US tech for its nuclear deterrent).

The rest of Europe needs to understand that in order to deter Russia, you need to have the means to wipe out Moscow from the map. And long term, it is equally important to be able to deter the US, and the only way to do that is by being able to wipe out New York with a nuke.

The rules based order guaranteed by the US post 1990 is over. The US is back to its imperial mindset, and non-nuclear countries will be at the mercy of the negotiations between US, China and Russia.

Europe meeds to make nukes, and advanced delivery systems. If you want to matter in the XXI century, you need to be able to nuke the US, China and Russia. That’s the only way to guarantee that you won’t end up as collateral damage between the ambitions of imperial powers.

 

[Spitfire9]

What's the situation?

In 2022 Russia set out to invade, defeat , occupy and install a puppet government in Ukraine or else annexe the country. The short, sharp war to take over Ukraine did not work out as planned. Nearly 4 years later

- hundreds of thousands of Russian troops have been killed

- Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine

- Russia's non-military industry has been decimated

- Russia's national wealth fund has almost been exhausted

- Russia's GDP is heading for negative growth if that has not yet arrived

- Russia's banks have been forced to make unwise loans to Russia's MIC, risking banks with future collapse

- state revenue from crude oil has fallen, resulting in the state being unable to balance income against spending

- with a shortfall in state revenues, Russia is selling gold reserves and raising taxes on business and citizens

- apart from companies in the MIC, Russian companies are posting reduced profits or losses

- many Russian businesses are closing down or are heading for bankruptcy

- Russia is suffering attacks on its infrastructure and industrial infrastructure

This is not what Putin foresaw when he invaded Ukraine. The invasion has proved to be disastrous for Russia's armed forces, for Russia's economy, for Russia's finances and for Russia's people.

Apart from the things I have listed above (and more I have not listed), all is going great in Russia due to its special military operation in Ukraine!

 

[Soldier30]

A Russian drone attacks a group of Ukrainian FPV drones. To conserve battery power, the drones do not fly but wait for targets. Russian drones also use this method. After detecting the Ukrainian drones, the Russian drone dropped ammunition. The video was filmed in the village of Mayak, in the Pokrovsky district of Donbas.

 

[Relic]

Germany and Ukraine agreed to a $1.4 Billion usd deal today to fund the domestic production of Ukrainian military equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The agreement is substantial and consists of the following:

- 200 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers on Zetros chassis, valued at $880 million usd.

- $235 million usd towards the domestic production of Ukrainian long range attack drones.

- Joint serial production in Ukraine of Linza surveillance drones.

- Long term spare parts agreement for Patriot Air Defense Systems.

- Tactical electronic warfare systems.

Ukraine and Germany sign new defence agreements worth over €1.2 billion

Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine's Defence Minister, has announced the signing of a number of important agreements with German partners totalling more than €1.2 billion.

www.yahoo.com

Germany to fund 200 Ukrainian howitzers and buy drones in €1.2 billion deal

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[Relic]

USA has passed a $901 Billion usd defense budget for 2026. The Budget includes $800 million usd in military funding in Ukraine inside the USAI envelope. The majority of the funds will be used to provide continued intelligence to Ukraine and to funds logistics and the transfer of weapons associated with PURL packages.

Defense bill passes with troop raise, pushes Hegseth over Venezuela

Congress just passed its $900 billion annual defense policy bill, sending it to President Trump's desk for a signature.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Relic]

Norway announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today, valued at $314 million usd. The package will consist of the following:

- S-300 air defense missiles purchased from an undisclosed country that dud jot want to be identified.

- APKWS multi-purpose rockets purchased from USA . Ukraine has mounted the reasonably affordable rockets on their F-16 fleet and is currently using them as a cheap, accurate and effective counter to Russian drones.

It's been two years since Ukraine virtually exhausted their inventory of S-300 air defense missiles, however, they still have numerous launchers in storage. These precious missiles will be used to intercept Russian cruise and ballistic missiles targeting key infrastructure, in a smiliat role as Patriot and SAMP/T systems.

Norway pledges 314 mln USD in F-16 ammunition, air defense aid to Ukraine

Norway pledges 314 mln USD in F-16 ammunition, air defense aid to Ukraine-

english.news.cn

 

[Huelague]

urope’s military problem is not solved by only pouring more money into conventional forces. European countries need to make nuclear weapons, and ICBMs. Unless they do that, the only European countries that matter will remain France, and to a lesser degree the UK (which is dependent on US tech for its nuclear deterrent)

You are absolutely right. The whole world should to develop nukes to the teeth. It would makes the world a better place and safer.

 

[Relic]

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has issued a final warning to Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich that he is to donate the $3.5 Billion usd worth of funds that are frozen in a British bank to Ukraine, or the British government will confiscate the funds through the court and send the funds to Ukraine themselves.

The $3.5 Billion usd are the proceeds of Abramovich's forced sale of Chelsea FC, which happened in 2022, due to thr Oligarch's proximity to Putin.

Keir Starmer warns Roman Abramovich over Chelsea sale funds

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned Roman Abramovich that "the clock is ticking" for him to donate the proceeds from the sale of Chelsea to Ukraine.

www.espn.com

 

[Soldier30]

The video shows the use of the new Russian 152mm Giatsint-K 2S44 self-propelled howitzer in combat in Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast. In this case, the Giatsint-K howitzer's fire is being adjusted by a ZALA Z-16 UAV. The howitzer fires at a range of 30 kilometers, targeting Ukrainian army positions located in forest belts. Typically, the shelling is short-lived due to the threat from drones, after which the positions are changed.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian FPV drone striking a Ukrainian Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun. The location and drone model are not disclosed. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun has been produced in Germany since 1998, but is now rarely seen in the Ukrainian army; perhaps there are few howitzers left. As a result of the Russian drone attack, the Ukrainian army's Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun was destroyed by fire.

 

[Soldier30]

Rare footage of the use of a Russian Lancet-51 kamikaze drone to strike a Ukrainian gas storage facility near the village of Semenovka in Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast. This is not the first Russian drone strike on Ukraine's gas infrastructure in the Chernihiv Oblast.

 

[Relic]

Today (into tomorrow) marks the European Union's most important decision of the war. Will they agree, on either of the two mechanisms to fund 2/3 of Ukraine's Government / Military needs for the next two years?

The EU is trying to agree on a $105 Billion usd to package to keep Ukraine fiscally solvent through 2026 and 2027, with Canada , Britain , Norway and a series of international financial institutions prepared to collectively cover the remaining $52 Billion, for a whopping $157 Billion influx of funds into Ukraine.

We might know by later today what that looks like!

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of two Ukrainian drones striking, presumably two Russian S-400 air defense missile system launchers. The video was filmed between the villages of Raevka and Verkhniy Olshanets in Russia's Belgorod region, 50 kilometers from the border. The air defense systems were unescorted and unprotected from the drones. Judging by the video, the air defense systems were not carrying missiles, as there was no explosion during the fire. As a result of the drone attack, one S-400 air defense system burned, and the second was damaged.

 

[Relic]

USA is officially willing to sell Ukraine's allies $15 Billion usd worth of PURL packages for Ukraine in 2026. It amounts to $1.25 Billion usd worth of weapons per month, right in the middle of the $12-$18 Billion usd worth of weapons that was earlier projected.

Ukraine is now actively trying to put the funding together through it's approximately 30 allies. Now that we know the figure, my suggestion for how to pay for it would look something like the following:

Germany : $2.5 Billion usd
Britain : $2.0 Billion usd
Norway : $2.0 Billion usd
Canada : $1.5 Billion usd
Netherlands : $1 Billion usd
Sweden : $1 Billion usd
Spain : $1 Billion usd
Denmark : $1 Billion usd
France : $500 Million usd
Italy : $500 Million usd
Poland : $500 Million usd
Belgium + Czechia : $250 Million usd
Portugal + Greece : $250 Million
Latvia + Lithuania + Estonia : $250 Million usd
Romania + Bulgaria + Croatia : $250 Million usd
Finland + Luxembourg + Iceland : $250 Million usd
Australia + New Zealand: $250 million usd

 

[Relic]

Politico is reporting that 24 European Union countries have agreed to provide Ukraine $105 Billion usd to cover 2/3 of Ukraine's outstanding military and government needs for 2026 and 2027. Britain , Norway and Canada will combine to cover the remaining 1/3, in conjunction with international financial institutions. Slovakia , Hungary and Czechia are not participating in the funding mechanism, in turn, forfeiting their right to veto the plan.

Of important note, frozen Russian funds WILL NOT be used to fund a loan, as European leaders failed to convince Belgium (the holder of the majority of the funds) that the Russian asset backed loan was a better strategy than the use of joint EU debt.

Regardless, it appears that the details of the plan will be ironed out tomorrow and Ukraine will continue to receive robust funding throughout 2026 and 2027, much to the frustration of Russia.

EU SUMMIT LIVE: Summit closes, with €90B Ukraine loan sealed but reparations call delayed | Euractiv

Negotiations over how to keep Ukraine financially afloat in 2026 and 2027 are set to continue

www.euractiv.com

 

[contricusc]

Of important note, frozen Russian funds WILL NOT be used to fund a loan, as European leaders failed to convince Belgium (the holder of the majority of the funds) that the Russian asset backed loan was a better strategy than the use of joint EU debt.

Ukraine needs to sue Russia at the Hague for crimes against humanity, and demand reparations for the crimes commited in the first year of war, equal to the frozen Russian assets. If the court orders Russia to pay, Belgium should be complied to abide by the court order.

And Russia would still be liable to pay reparations for all the damage done on the subsequent years of war, so it would simply be a trick to take Russia’s money without absolving them of any future liabilities.

Europeans need to be more creative to bypass the stupid legal hurdles and the opposition of a few traitor leaders.

But common debt is also a good idea, as once it is accepted as a solution, it can be done in perpetuity, basically providing infinite liquidity for war.

It boggles my mind why Europe is so hesitant to “print” money out of thin air to finance the war and the building of a stronger MIC. If all the newly created money are spent on war and weapons, it would have close to no impact on inflation. If it happens to negatively affect the exchange rate of the Euro, it would all be for the better, as European exports would become more competititve,

 

[Relic]

Ukraine needs to sue Russia at the Hague for crimes against humanity, and demand reparations for the crimes commited in the first year of war, equal to the frozen Russian assets. If the court orders Russia to pay, Belgium should be complied to abide by the court order.

And Russia would still be liable to pay reparations for all the damage done on the subsequent years of war, so it would simply be a trick to take Russia’s money without absolving them of any future liabilities.

Europeans need to be more creative to bypass the stupid legal hurdles and the opposition of a few traitor leaders.

But common debt is also a good idea, as once it is accepted as a solution, it can be done in perpetuity, basically providing infinite liquidity for war.

It boggles my mind why Europe is so hesitant to “print” money out of thin air to finance the war and the building of a stronger MIC. If all the newly created money are spent on war and weapons, it would have close to no impact on inflation. If it happens to negatively affect the exchange rate of the Euro, it would all be for the better, as European exports would become more competititve,

I would have preferred to see Russia's own assets used to fund the killing of their soldiers, and the destruction of their military inventory, but joint debt, shared among 24 countries, is a perfectly acceptable secondary option. The reality is that $105 Billion usd is a "drop in the bucket" for the an economy the size of the EU to endure over the next two years.

Most importantly, for the first time during this war Ukraine can plan on having the entirely of their budget deficit funded for multiple years. That will enable a significant increase in domestic arms production. Ukraine currently has domestic arms production capabilities in the neighbourhood of $35 Billion usd annually, however, in 2025 funding shortfalls caused them to be able to use only approximately $15 Billion usd worth of that capacity. That means that Ukraine could more than double it's domestic production.

Now that this funding is secured, the next step is to get individual countries to agree to max out funding for the PURL initiative. Since it's outset I. The summer of 2025, Ukraine's Allies have purchased approximately $5 Billion usd worth of weapons from USA via PURL packages. USA has agreed to sell $15 Billion usd worth of those vital weapons to Ukraine's Allies in 2026, but the 30 country coalition supporting Ukraine have to be willing to fully fund it. There is no questions that countries such as Germany, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Poland and The Netherlands will continue contribute quarterly to the purchase of PURL packages, however, convincing large economies such as Britain, Spain, Italy, France and Poland to ramp up funding, rather than spend funds strictly domestically, will go a long way towards maxing out PURL purchases. As it stands, it will take approximately $1.25 Billion usd per month in funds to take full advantage of PURL.