Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Ukraine will see it's largest influx of self-propelled howitzers in 2026, compared to any other year in the war. Ukraine is expecting the following to arrive over the course if the war.

Germany + Ukraine

At least 200 units of Bohdana 5.0 self-propelled howitzers will enter Ukrainian service in 2026, on a new Mercedes Benz platform. The purchase was financed in Germany, where the vehicles will be made and shipped to Ukraine, where the Ukrainians will add the turret. With capacity for Ukraine to build approximately 40 self-propelled and towed howitzers each month, it's expected that Ukraine will seek other foreign investors to maximize production. It's not unreasonable to think that you Ukraine could build 250-300 units in 2026.

Germany + Ukraine

At least 8 RCH-155 self-propelled howitzers and at least 8 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers. Ukraine has 54 RCH-155 on order and a further 36 Panzerhaubitze 2000. While the bulk of both units will not arrive until the back end of 2027, the above units are scheduled to arrive in 2026.

France + Denmark + Ukraine

At least 36 units of CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzers are expected to arrive in Ukraine in 2026. These are part of a larger order agree to in 2024, financed jointly by France, Denmark and Ukraine. The French have greatly increased production ratss and have prioritized deliveries to Ukraine, allowing for quarterly deliveries of new units.

Sweden + Ukraine

18 units of Archer self-propelled howitzers will arrive in Ukraine during 2026. These units are part of 44 that Sweden has ordered for Ukraine, with deliveries scheduled throughout 2026, 2027 and 2028. The 18 units that will arrive in 2926 were financed in late 2024. Sweden previously donated 8 Archer unit from their own military stocks.

Netherlands + Czechia + Ukraine

An unknown number of DITA self-propelled howitzers were ordered in early 2025, with deliveries starting in the fall of 2025 and expected to continue throughout 2026.

Italy + Ukraine

An unknown number of M109-L howitzers will become possession Ukraine in 2026. Itsly had more than 100 units in storage, but sent batches in both 2024 and 2025. Some of the units needed more significant refurbishment, however, those units will be shipped to Ukraine in 2026.

 

[Soldier30]

The Ukrainian army has launched a counteroffensive near Kupyansk. The attempt to retake the city is primarily using infantry and light armored vehicles. A video shows Russian FPV drones repelling attacks by Ukrainian units near Kupyansk. The drone models are unknown. Media reports indicate that the Ukrainian army has lost up to 200 soldiers, several M113 armored personnel carriers, two Cobra armored vehicles, two Humvees, 13 cars, and other equipment.

 

[Soldier30]

Archival footage of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile striking a Ukrainian company in Dnipropetrovsk. The footage was taken by a local resident. The video also shows the aftermath of the missile strike. The strike presumably targeted the Ukrainian company 3D Printing Dnepr, which produces parts for Ukrainian UAVs. It's worth noting that several companies were operating in the building, including a 3D printing company.

 

[Iskander]

Ukrainian attacks on tankers forced the "shadow fleet" to change its route in the Black Sea, and now Russian ships are sailing along the Turkish coast.

Turkey will, of course, protect Russians from aggressive Ukrainians.

Compassionate Turks are known for protecting defenseless orphans and all those in need.


A cargo ship caught fire in the port of Odessa after a missile strike by Russian forces.
This occurred a week ago.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSNoHL3jfWa/&ved=2ahUKEwi58MDd9cuRAxX-8LsIHUtTNyoQo7QBegQIFhAE&usg=AOvVaw3P1J2vrSLFyrqmnYJkFoMC

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the Russian army's second strike on a strategically important Ukrainian bridge in the village of Mayaki in the Odessa region. The strike used optically guided Geran-2 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile with a cluster munition warhead. The results of the strike are shown at the end of the video. The strike on the bridge has hampered Ukrainian army logistics and could disrupt up to 60% of fuel supplies to Ukraine.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone strikes on the Allseads Black Sea oil extraction complex in the Odessa region of Ukraine. The reasons for the drone strikes are not reported. The video also ends with a Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone strike on a Ukrainian railway bridge in the Odessa region.

 

[Spitfire9]

As we approach 2026 I am unaware what revenue the Russian state anticipates receiving from crude exports. In September a Russian source stated that the average price expected for crude sold would be 59 USD per barrel.

Russia to plan 2026 budget revenues based on oil price of $59/barrel - Siluanov​

MOSCOW. Sept 9 (Interfax) - Russia's Finance Ministry is factoring a forecast average price of $59 per barrel for Urals crude into the drafting of the federal budget for 2026 and projections for its oil and gas revenues, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview with Radio RBC.

"In fact, I believe we have approached the forecasting of energy resource prices, primarily oil, in a very balanced manner. For the next year, Urals oil and the budget revenues from it are based on $59 per barrel," Siluanov said.

"We see that analysts are saying that in the medium term Brent will cost around $60-$65 per barrel. We currently have discounts against Brent crude, so it seems to me that the oil price forecast made by the economy ministry is fairly balanced - $59, around $60 in subsequent years, [this] allows us to feel sufficiently confident in the forecast for oil and gas revenues," Siluanov said.

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/113721/

With Urals crude reportedly selling for 40 USD or less at the moment, it looks like there will be a large hole in Russia's 2026 revenues unless the 2026 budget has been drastically amended.

Will a possible US blockade on Venezuela supplies of crude push up the price of crude? Venezuela is reported to export less than 1 million barrels a day. I believe that with current world supply capacity exceeding world demand the loss of Venezuela supply into the market is unlikely to cause a spike in crude prices.

So I think that 2026 will see Russia having to sell more of its gold to finance government spending. Russian gold is sanctioned so sales outside of Russia will be difficult to achieve unless Russia offers to sell at a discount in the same way that Russian crude needs to be sold at a discount to attract foreign buyers.

I wish the Russian government a Very Unhappy New Year.