Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Ukraine will see it's largest influx of self-propelled howitzers in 2026, compared to any other year in the war. Ukraine is expecting the following to arrive over the course if the war.

Germany + Ukraine

At least 200 units of Bohdana 5.0 self-propelled howitzers will enter Ukrainian service in 2026, on a new Mercedes Benz platform. The purchase was financed in Germany, where the vehicles will be made and shipped to Ukraine, where the Ukrainians will add the turret. With capacity for Ukraine to build approximately 40 self-propelled and towed howitzers each month, it's expected that Ukraine will seek other foreign investors to maximize production. It's not unreasonable to think that you Ukraine could build 250-300 units in 2026.

Germany + Ukraine

At least 8 RCH-155 self-propelled howitzers and at least 8 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers. Ukraine has 54 RCH-155 on order and a further 36 Panzerhaubitze 2000. While the bulk of both units will not arrive until the back end of 2027, the above units are scheduled to arrive in 2026.

France + Denmark + Ukraine

At least 36 units of CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzers are expected to arrive in Ukraine in 2026. These are part of a larger order agree to in 2024, financed jointly by France, Denmark and Ukraine. The French have greatly increased production ratss and have prioritized deliveries to Ukraine, allowing for quarterly deliveries of new units.

Sweden + Ukraine

18 units of Archer self-propelled howitzers will arrive in Ukraine during 2026. These units are part of 44 that Sweden has ordered for Ukraine, with deliveries scheduled throughout 2026, 2027 and 2028. The 18 units that will arrive in 2926 were financed in late 2024. Sweden previously donated 8 Archer unit from their own military stocks.

Netherlands + Czechia + Ukraine

An unknown number of DITA self-propelled howitzers were ordered in early 2025, with deliveries starting in the fall of 2025 and expected to continue throughout 2026.

Italy + Ukraine

An unknown number of M109-L howitzers will become possession Ukraine in 2026. Itsly had more than 100 units in storage, but sent batches in both 2024 and 2025. Some of the units needed more significant refurbishment, however, those units will be shipped to Ukraine in 2026.

 

[Soldier30]

The Ukrainian army has launched a counteroffensive near Kupyansk. The attempt to retake the city is primarily using infantry and light armored vehicles. A video shows Russian FPV drones repelling attacks by Ukrainian units near Kupyansk. The drone models are unknown. Media reports indicate that the Ukrainian army has lost up to 200 soldiers, several M113 armored personnel carriers, two Cobra armored vehicles, two Humvees, 13 cars, and other equipment.

 

[Soldier30]

Archival footage of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile striking a Ukrainian company in Dnipropetrovsk. The footage was taken by a local resident. The video also shows the aftermath of the missile strike. The strike presumably targeted the Ukrainian company 3D Printing Dnepr, which produces parts for Ukrainian UAVs. It's worth noting that several companies were operating in the building, including a 3D printing company.

 

[Iskander]

Ukrainian attacks on tankers forced the "shadow fleet" to change its route in the Black Sea, and now Russian ships are sailing along the Turkish coast.

Turkey will, of course, protect Russians from aggressive Ukrainians.

Compassionate Turks are known for protecting defenseless orphans and all those in need.


A cargo ship caught fire in the port of Odessa after a missile strike by Russian forces.
This occurred a week ago.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSNoHL3jfWa/&ved=2ahUKEwi58MDd9cuRAxX-8LsIHUtTNyoQo7QBegQIFhAE&usg=AOvVaw3P1J2vrSLFyrqmnYJkFoMC

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the Russian army's second strike on a strategically important Ukrainian bridge in the village of Mayaki in the Odessa region. The strike used optically guided Geran-2 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile with a cluster munition warhead. The results of the strike are shown at the end of the video. The strike on the bridge has hampered Ukrainian army logistics and could disrupt up to 60% of fuel supplies to Ukraine.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone strikes on the Allseads Black Sea oil extraction complex in the Odessa region of Ukraine. The reasons for the drone strikes are not reported. The video also ends with a Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone strike on a Ukrainian railway bridge in the Odessa region.

 

[Spitfire9]

As we approach 2026 I am unaware what revenue the Russian state anticipates receiving from crude exports. In September a Russian source stated that the average price expected for crude sold would be 59 USD per barrel.

Russia to plan 2026 budget revenues based on oil price of $59/barrel - Siluanov​

MOSCOW. Sept 9 (Interfax) - Russia's Finance Ministry is factoring a forecast average price of $59 per barrel for Urals crude into the drafting of the federal budget for 2026 and projections for its oil and gas revenues, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview with Radio RBC.

"In fact, I believe we have approached the forecasting of energy resource prices, primarily oil, in a very balanced manner. For the next year, Urals oil and the budget revenues from it are based on $59 per barrel," Siluanov said.

"We see that analysts are saying that in the medium term Brent will cost around $60-$65 per barrel. We currently have discounts against Brent crude, so it seems to me that the oil price forecast made by the economy ministry is fairly balanced - $59, around $60 in subsequent years, [this] allows us to feel sufficiently confident in the forecast for oil and gas revenues," Siluanov said.

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/113721/

With Urals crude reportedly selling for 40 USD or less at the moment, it looks like there will be a large hole in Russia's 2026 revenues unless the 2026 budget has been drastically amended.

Will a possible US blockade on Venezuela supplies of crude push up the price of crude? Venezuela is reported to export less than 1 million barrels a day. I believe that with current world supply capacity exceeding world demand the loss of Venezuela supply into the market is unlikely to cause a spike in crude prices.

So I think that 2026 will see Russia having to sell more of its gold to finance government spending. Russian gold is sanctioned so sales outside of Russia will be difficult to achieve unless Russia offers to sell at a discount in the same way that Russian crude needs to be sold at a discount to attract foreign buyers.

I wish the Russian government a Very Unhappy New Year.

 

[Spitfire9]

According to this source 24% of Russian companies are reported to be non-performing in servicing loans (90 days or more late with interest payments). With bank loans at 20% per annum or more, some companies face bankruptcy unless they are baled out soon.

 

[Relic]

Japan has agreed to send Ukraine $6 Billion usd worth of financial aid in 2026. The Japanese remain a stalwart supporter of Ukraine's independence and have been a quiet, reliable partner since the outset of the war.

Japan will also expedite $3 Billion usd from their portion of the G7 loan previously extended to Ukraine. The Japanese will send $9 Billion usd to Ukraine in Q1, 2026.

Ukrainian leader thanks Japan for additional financial aid

The Japanese government has pledged to provide an additional $6 billion in financial aid to the war-torn nation next year.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian troops repelling an attack by Ukrainian FPV drones in Donbas. Only small arms were used to destroy the drones. The location of the footage is not disclosed.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Ukrainian M1A1SA Abrams tank being destroyed by Russian FPV drones. The tank was used by Ukraine's 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala." M1A1SA Abrams are rarely used these days, mostly being kept in the rear. The M1A1SA Abrams tank is manufactured in the United States. The M1A1SA Abrams tank was presumably delivered to Ukraine from Australia; the last tanks from this shipment arrived recently. The video was filmed near Pokrovsk, and the M1A1SA Abrams tank was destroyed by drone operators from the Russian 76th Airborne Division.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of an attempted breakthrough into the city of Pokrovsk, featuring a column of armored vehicles belonging to the Ukrainian 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala." The Ukrainian column managed to reach the outskirts of the industrial zone of Pokrovsk, near the stele, at the entrance from Grishino. Ukrainian GUR special forces had previously landed there by helicopter. As a result of the battle in Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian armored column was partially destroyed by Russian FPV drones from the 76th Airborne Division. The video has been shortened. The first Ukrainian M1A1SA Abrams tank, recently received from Australia, was also destroyed.

 

[Spitfire9]

Another economist comes up with a negative analysis of Russia's situation and economic prospects.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of an attack on a Russian armored column near Dobropillya in the Krasnoarmiisk sector. There are no details of the battle. Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery actively targeted the column. Despite the armored vehicles being protected from drones, some were lost. During the fighting near Dobropillya, Russian units landed troops and are gradually advancing. The video is edited to show the active moments of the battle. The authors did not show the entire battle. Ukrainian media reports that reserves are currently being sent to defend Dobropillya, but they are also in short supply.

 

[Soldier30]

A combat scene in Ukraine featuring a Russian 130mm towed gun "M-46" belonging to the 58th Guards Army of the "Dnepr" Force Group. The video was filmed near the village of Novodanilovka in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and fire is directed at Ukrainian army strongholds. Long-range M-46 guns entered service with the USSR in 1951. Technical information about them is available in the link to the video in the comments. Judging by the video, the gun is used in a single fortified position and is not being replaced.

Technical information about the M-46 artillery gun

 

[Relic]

French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Ukraine will receive it's first SAMP/T NG air defense battery in 2026. Ukraine is scheduled to receive 8 SAMP/T NG batteries over a period of 10 years, with the first systems arriving in 2026 and 2027. Ukraine currently operates 3 batteries of the original SAMP/T system, donated by Italy and France .

SAMP/T NG is a cutting edge air defense system, expected to operate with similar capabilities as the most advanced variations of Patriot air defense systems.

France to Deliver First Next-Generation SAMP/T Air Defense System to Ukraine in 2026 - Militarnyi

France will deliver the first SAMP/T NG air defense system to Ukraine in 2026

militarnyi.com

Ukraine to Be First in World to Receive French-Italian New SAMP/T NG Missile Defense Shield

France is set to send the SAMP/T NG air defense system to Ukraine by 2026, providing enhanced protection against threats from Russia.

united24media.com

 

[Soldier30]

A combat mission involving a Russian T-72B3M tank from the 34th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast. The tank suppressed the firing positions of a Ukrainian army stronghold and supported the landing of troops from a Russian MT-LB. A serviceman provides details of the battle.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian Kh-38 missile striking a temporary Ukrainian army base in the village of Grafske in the Kharkiv region. The building housed soldiers from the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. The attack was carried out by a Su-34 fighter-bomber.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian FPV drones attacking a Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 tank. The video was filmed near the village of Nikolaipole in the Donbas. The Leopard 1A5 tank, developed in Germany in 1987, is a modernization of the original Leopard-1 tank, which has since been decommissioned. The Leopard 1A5 has good maneuverability but weak armor. As a result of the drone attacks, the Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 tank was destroyed.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of strikes by a Russian 300mm Tornado-S MLRS on two temporary deployment sites of Ukrainian units in the village of Rodynske in the Donbas. The video shows eight Ukrainian soldiers entering the first building before the missile struck. Three Ukrainian soldiers entered the second building. The strike used a high-precision Tornado-S MLRS rocket with a GLONASS satellite guidance system.