Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

[Dalit]

This is repeating what I've been writing in this very thread. Trying to differentiate between the Taliban and the TTP will result in failure. Both the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban saw both Pakistan to be an enemy state.

only fools in PDF would believe there are 2 Taliban.

LOL are you really that naive? Who says that Pakistanis are ignorant of the fact that Afghans irrespective of their religious identity and ethnicity accept Durand Line? This is undisputed common knowledge.

For Pakistan it makes a huge difference who is ruling Afghanistan. When Northern Alliance was ruling in Afghanistan, India had dozens of consulates in Afghanistan under the watchful eye of US/NATO. We all know what was happening in those consulates.

With IEA in power the Northern Alliance has disappeared and so have Indian consulates that were directly involved in many cross border attacks against the Pakistani state.

We have our differences regarding the Durand Line, but we won't destabalise each other and India won't be there to add more fuel. The border dispute between Pakistan and Afghanistan is as old as the hills.

All I can say to nationalistic Afghans, come and get what you claim. We will see the rest.

 

[Dalit]

The Chinese realized it earlier than I thought. Simply put, the current situation in Afghanistan without security commitments by the IEA, (which they consistently fail btw) will deter any prospect of deepening economic relationship with the IEA.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1466363102094671874

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1466364209885814791

Don't get too happy. IEA has every stake in stabilising the security situation. ISIS-K won't last a day if Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban firmly make a commitment to wipe them out. Right now the Afghan Taliban are dealing with the situation within their borders without Pakistani assistance. Once the assistance flows ISIS-K and the TTP will be history.

 

[Dalit]

I could write an entire thesis about this but to make it short, as I've pretty much reiterate over time here, there is a disconnect between what the Taliban govt wants you to believe the Taliban is (in Int'l relations) and what's the situation on the ground in regards to its neighbors.

Have you heard yourself? You are clutching at straws.

The IEA is resisting outside interference. Nothing more nothing less. If Iran tries to interfere in Afghanistan it can expect Afghan Taliban resistance. It is as simple as that.

 

[Dalit]

Iran tried to establish a border post in Nimroz province - The Taliban replied with force and pushed inside Iran capturing several border posts

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1466061046662283266

Exactly. This is factually how it is.

 

[Dalit]

Lol. What ancient news? Aren't you still a designated major non Nato ally? Isn't Pakistan the errand boy for USA - Taliban talks?

No we are not a US/NATO ally. Pakistan firmly belongs in the China camp. All you have to do is open your eyes and see how the American officials plead to Pakistani masses to be on their side and shun China LOL

 

[Dalit]

Some are. In fact, I have a sneaking suspicion that all Near Eastern wars may have been started intentionally, to start a refugee crisis and turn Europe into US-lite multi-kulti hellhole.

The help that a handful of Afghans are getting in some Western nations is miniscule. Even that help is being scrutinised under the microscope. Let's be honest here. There are 40 million Afghans that would like to flee even with US/NATO presence in Afghanistan.

 

[Jackdaws]

No we are not a US/NATO ally. Pakistan firmly belongs in the China camp. All you have to do is open your eyes and see how the American officials plead to Pakistani masses to be on their side and shun China LOL

Lol. Next time you type, back it up with facts instead of lies.

Major Non-NATO Ally Status - United States Department of State

Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status is a designation under U.S. law [1] that provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation. The Major Non-NATO Ally designation is a powerful symbol of the close relationship the United States shares with...

www.state.gov

 

[Dalit]

Lol. Next time you lie, back it up with facts.

Major Non-NATO Ally Status - United States Department of State

Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status is a designation under U.S. law [1] that provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation. The Major Non-NATO Ally designation is a powerful symbol of the close relationship the United States shares with...

www.state.gov

LOL Is that why US/NATO holds Pakistan responsible for their defeat in Afghanistan?

Let me assure you. Pakistan is not an ally of US/NATO. The designation is symbolic and the US would withdraw it today, but that would have consequences at this point. The US still relies on Pakistan for a few things including Afghanistan.

 

[Kaptaan]

We will do whatever dictates our interests. If supporting IEA means that Indian sponsored terrorism can be kept at bay we will support IEA. Just like India, US and NATO supported Northern Alliance against Pakistan for their own interests.

The Taliban cannot do shit against existing borders. This news might be new to most here. The Pakistanis have been dealing with Afghan and Indian sponsored terror at border region ever since its existence. This is old news and we have been dealing with Afghan nationalism very effectively.

Pakistan will close the border for just 2 days and the Afghans will come to their senses. Don't believe me? Wait in the coming days for this to happen.

Most outsiders fed diet of Indian propaganda vectored by US media which has global influence has created a very distorted picture of the reality. This can be seen on cybespace where given it's gigantic population soon to tip 1.5 billion Indians have a huge footprint - visible on this forum.

The reality is the Pakistani state is far, far more resilient and will prevail if even it takes time. Underlying this strength is the compact between Khyber Paktunkwa province and Punjab. Both peoples provide most of the manpower to the most pivotal insitution in Pakistan - the army.

Today six lane motorways conjoin both provinces with Islamabad being the hub between both. The economic and military gravitas provided by these factors underpins the strength of the Pakistani state. Even the present ruling PTI government of Imran Khan is in fact in power thanks to the support from Khyber Pakhtunkwa and Punjab.

There is deep symbiotic relationship between these provinces and nothing will weaken this. Neither would progress without the other. The amusing thing is Indians think there is some huge barrier separating Punjab from KPK. The truth is both blend into each other around Attock seamlessly.

In my district we have Hindko speaking Punjabis, Gujjars from Kashmir, Pashtuns [speaking Pashto and Hindko] and even a small layer of Tajik/Turks. We have all lived for centuries together and there is no rancour other then the normal leg pulling that goes on like I see between Welsh/Scots/English etc.

 

[Kaptaan]

Have you heard yourself?

Let broken record payers play. They have zero knowledge of the facts on the ground. Not long ago they were talking about that dollar grabber Ashraf Ghani and his ANA as a formidable force until he did a 'gone in 6 seconds' and ANA melted - then we saw ANA crack recruits chasing US transport aircraft on the runway and some members of ANA Special Forces trying free fall jumps!

 

[Gary]

What advantage do you gain from this news? You are celebrating this as if you won something.

I did not "celebrate" anything, I am only reinforcing my claims, the same claims that you and your buddy here mocked back then.

LOL are you really that naive? Who says that Pakistanis are ignorant of the fact that Afghans irrespective of their religious identity and ethnicity accept Durand Line? This is undisputed common knowledge.

You're ignorant that the fact is, not only the Durand line are not acceptable to the Afghanis, and most specifically the jihadist. The very existence of the Pakistani state are not acceptable as it is not an Islamic state according to their criteria. This is what I've been peddling all the time now.

The Taliban leadership might be playing pragmatic with the Pakistani state, but the cadres don't. Your country is next in line. in the end you'll still ended up with a two front conflict with India in the East and with the jihadist in the West.

To be fair, the Indians should not be happy at all, because if Pakistan flipped, India is next in line.

Don't get too happy. IEA has every stake in stabilising the security situation. ISIS-K won't last a day if Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban firmly make a commitment to wipe them out.

No you don't, I have predicted ISIS-K resurgence long before you even realize the depth and scope of their resilience. See this post

Your Pakistan ain't gonna do s**t, they're struggling with the TTP in their land, I don't see how your Pakistan could roll ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

 

[Gary]

Right now the Afghan Taliban are dealing with the situation within their borders without Pakistani assistance. Once the assistance flows ISIS-K and the TTP will be history.

This is where your limited understanding comes in full display. As I've already mentioned long before, economic is just one problem grappling the Afghans into joining ISIS-K. In the long run and more serious problem is its cadres and its policy pursued.

as you know the IEA is playing pragmatic by engaging China (which are engaged in hostile acts against its muslim population), trying its luck to enter the UN, and rapprochement with the West. Something that irks a lot of their own cadres into believing that IEA 2.0 is not the same IEA of Mullah Omar. Hence the mass defection

another problem is the problem of the Taliban members did not follow on their promise for amnesty for former ANA members. Most of these guys ended up joining ISIS as a mean of vengeance. I already explain this back then, scroll it up.

 

[Kaptaan]

Your Pakistan ain't gonna do shit, they're struggling with the TTP in your land

If you combined Afghan Taliban and TTP there is no way they could defeat Pakistan. To understand why you need to understand that Pakistan is where Europe was in early 20th century.

With a huge youth bulge, tough economic conditions and large rural population it has huge pool to draw into the armed forces. This means a large army with heavy reliance on infantry divisions. As it is the army is nearly 650k strong. In addition another 150k paramilitary troops. These forces can be easily doubled.

To fight a war against TTP or AT you need to rely on infantry soldiers on the ground - the more the better. Pakistan could easily take 100,000 dead and still replace those numbers like European armies could in early 20th century. In this scenario TTP or AT would never win. They would be worn out by numbers. In fact in Pakistan this is what has happened - TTP has been ground down. Yes, to be sure they still are pests and can still launch strikes but so could IRA against Britain as late as 1990s after decades of fighting. They nearly killed PM Thatcher, killed some senior British ministers, killed Lord Mountbatten who belonged to the British monarchy.

I don;t think you quite understand how deep the Pakistan Army has it's roots in large tract of northern Pakistan. It's almost as grounded as Turkish Army is in Turkish society.

 

[Gary]

If you combined Afghan Taliban and TTP there is no way they could defeat Pakistan.

Let me give you a wake up call, they don't need to defeat you. Think about what a (single) submarine can do to an entire enemy fleet.

A submarine usually operate at a particular designated arena, that is in coordinate. A report of a presence of an enemy subs nearby could compel an opposing admiral to either:

1. Cancel an entire naval operation
2. Assign a significant part of its fleet to try hunt the submarine, thereby getting tied down on a particular theater.

So what has the analogy of a submarine has anything to do with Afghanistan you ask ?

Simple as, in a war (hypothetical) between the Taliban and the TTP or even ISKP. You will, irrelevant of the might and size of the army in relations to the Afghanis. Be forced to split a significant chunk of your army tied down trying to hunt an invisible enemy. it doesn't matter if your OPFOR is 10, 100 or 1000 strong only, the perceived threat that this 1000 men offers, would compel your commander to be restless at night.

Pakistan could in theory, rolled up any conventional military forces in Afghanistan and forced upon an occupation. But then, the real question is if the Pakistani army could maintain their control upon those lands. I said control not possession, both are very different things. During the 20 years Afghan war, the Afghan and ISAF maintain possession of Afghanistan but not control.

An invasion that quickly turned into an insurgency will force the Pakistani state to divert material and resources which they don't even have to maintain even the slightest order. Thereby will get tied down the same way an admiral getting tied down by a presence of an enemy submarine. This will affect the way you balance thing between the Eastern threat (India) and the Western threat (Afghanistan).

With a huge youth bulge, tough economic conditions and large rural population it has huge pool to draw into the armed forces. This means a large army with heavy reliance on infantry divisions. As it is the army is nearly 650k strong. In addition another 150k paramilitary troops. These forces can be easily doubled.

This has been proven useless in a conventional war in Iraq and Armenia and even more so in an anti- insurgency op.

To fight a war against TTP or AT you need to rely on infantry soldiers on the ground - the more the better. Pakistan could easily take 100,000 dead and still replace those numbers like European armies could in early 20th century. In this scenario TTP or AT would never win. They would be worn out by numbers. In fact in Pakistan this is what has happened -

WRONG ! I t doesn't matter if you could mobilize one million men, if you did not know where to strike, it's useless. An active insurgency is one of the most time and money consuming efforts a nation could bear. Something that Pakistan did not have or have very little of.

For starters a wrong anti-insurgency targeting a wrong person would instead fuel another insurgency. This is what 20 years of NATO anti insurgency has taught us. Anti -Insurgency needs a robust ISR, it's like trying to find a needle in a haystack. And ISR aint cheap.

 

[Merzifonlu]

It doesn't matter if you could mobilize one million men, if you did not know where to strike, it's useless. An active insurgency is one of the most time and money consuming efforts a nation could bear. Something that Pakistan did not have or have very little of.

For starters a wrong anti-insurgency targeting a wrong person would instead fuel another insurgency. This is what 20 years of NATO anti insurgency has taught us. Anti -Insurgency needs a robust ISR, it's like trying to find a needle in a haystack. And ISR aint cheap.

It is not enough to know only the location of the target, it is necessary to know the time as well. The target that is there at time a, will not be there at time b. Because they are constantly moving. Counter-insurgency operations in large and mountainous terrain require a very strong ISR and communications infrastructure and experience. And yes, this infrastructure is certainly not cheap.

As I said before, the Pakistani core state and intelligence organization must face the hard facts as soon as possible. a) Pashtuns will never accept the Durand line as a border. b) The biggest danger for Pakistan is TLP and similar formations and the bigoted mullah class. Collaboration of these structures with extremists abroad will be particularly deadly for Pakistan.

Another problem for the Indian subcontinent is that radical religious movements in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran triggered the same thing in India. The radical hindu called Narendra Modi could not have come to power otherwise.

 

[Dalit]

Most outsiders fed diet of Indian propaganda vectored by US media which has global influence has created a very distorted picture of the reality. This can be seen on cybespace where given it's gigantic population soon to tip 1.5 billion Indians have a huge footprint - visible on this forum.

The reality is the Pakistani state is far, far more resilient and will prevail if even it takes time. Underlying this strength is the compact between Khyber Paktunkwa province and Punjab. Both peoples provide most of the manpower to the most pivotal insitution in Pakistan - the army.

Today six lane motorways conjoin both provinces with Islamabad being the hub between both. The economic and military gravitas provided by these factors underpins the strength of the Pakistani state. Even the present ruling PTI government of Imran Khan is in fact in power thanks to the support from Khyber Pakhtunkwa and Punjab.

There is deep symbiotic relationship between these provinces and nothing will weaken this. Neither would progress without the other. The amusing thing is Indians think there is some huge barrier separating Punjab from KPK. The truth is both blend into each other around Attock seamlessly.

In my district we have Hindko speaking Punjabis, Gujjars from Kashmir, Pashtuns [speaking Pashto and Hindko] and even a small layer of Tajik/Turks. We have all lived for centuries together and there is no rancour other then the normal leg pulling that goes on like I see between Welsh/Scots/English etc.

20 years of relentless campaign by India, US and NATO in Afghanistan is ample proof how resilient Pakistan is. Not only did we survive the onslaught and terror, we replied and in the end came on top.

Pakistan is a melting pot of ethnicities. Let the Americans and her poodles continue to wage a propaganda war against Pakistan. It might have effect in Western capitals, but in Pakistan it is business as usual.

Pakistan is now focused on regional connectivity. The Western powers are now starting their own belt and road initiave trying to mimic China. Too little too late.

 

[Dalit]

Let broken record payers play. They have zero knowledge of the facts on the ground. Not long ago they were talking about that dollar grabber Ashraf Ghani and his ANA as a formidable force until he did a 'gone in 6 seconds' and ANA melted - then we saw ANA crack recruits chasing US transport aircraft on the runway and some members of ANA Special Forces trying free fall jumps!

LOL we all know how these Northern Alliance poodles fled the scene. They are now in safe exile in Tajikistan where they took their CIA dollars with them. They bark from time to time, but what can they possibly do?

The ANA soldiers that they so proudly trained didn't even lift a finger after US/NATO left them high and dry. Do you think the West would remain quiet about a war they waged so fiercely for 20 years? Afghan era US generals have been sidelined without cermony. We all know why they don't want to talk about the Afghan war anymore. It was a farce. From start to end. They are finding out the hard way.

 

[Dalit]

I did not "celebrate" anything, I am only reinforcing my claims, the same claims that you and your buddy here mocked back then.


You're ignorant that the fact is, not only the Durand line are not acceptable to the Afghanis, and most specifically the jihadist. The very existence of the Pakistani state are not acceptable as it is not an Islamic state according to their criteria. This is what I've been peddling all the time now.

The Taliban leadership might be playing pragmatic with the Pakistani state, but the cadres don't. Your country is next in line. in the end you'll still ended up with a two front conflict with India in the East and with the jihadist in the West.

To be fair, the Indians should not be happy at all, because if Pakistan flipped, India is next in line.



No you don't, I have predicted ISIS-K resurgence long before you even realize the depth and scope of their resilience. See this post

View attachment 37683

Your Pakistan ain't gonna do s**t, they're struggling with the TTP in their land, I don't see how your Pakistan could roll ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

You didn't make any such claims so sit back.

Did Dick Cheney and general Petraeus feed you this nonsense? LOL Pakistan is perfectly fine. In fact better than ever before. Terrorist attacks against Pakistan emenating across the border during US/NATO and Indian presence have virtually come to a halt. Should that be a surprise? The Afghan nationalist, US/NATO and Indian gang has been defeated in broad daylight. Northern Alliance thugs have run off to their Tajik capital. Afghan nationalists who were yearning for Pakistani land have run off to Western capitals. You are living in a different universe. Your truth is very far from actual facts. Today, Pakistan is on the verge of mopping up TTP. Only a matter of time before we wipe the floor with these US/NATO and Indian sponsored terrorists. Pakistan will walk into Afghanistan and remove TTP scourge without any hesitation. Who will hold us accountable? No one. We have the time and resources to destroy TTP and we will.

Wasn't Masood supposed to fight the Afghan Taliban from the Panjshir valley? LOL What happened to that promise? Your Afghan nationalist buddies ran off and don't even have a home anymore.

My Pakistan will indeed destroy TTP and there is nothing you or your American/Indian buddies can do about it. LOL at ISIS-K. Another US boogeyman left behind after running from Kabul. It doesn't scare us.

We will nail these final remnants and we will prove it through our actions. We have seen much worse during US/NATO war against Pakistan. Just let that sink in.

When ISIS-K or TTP have occupied Pakistan come back and wake me up LOL Until then keep dreaming about your fantasies. For how many decades have you people been dreaming about Pakistan's destruction? It just hasn't happened for you or has it?

 

[Dalit]

If you combined Afghan Taliban and TTP there is no way they could defeat Pakistan. To understand why you need to understand that Pakistan is where Europe was in early 20th century.

With a huge youth bulge, tough economic conditions and large rural population it has huge pool to draw into the armed forces. This means a large army with heavy reliance on infantry divisions. As it is the army is nearly 650k strong. In addition another 150k paramilitary troops. These forces can be easily doubled.

To fight a war against TTP or AT you need to rely on infantry soldiers on the ground - the more the better. Pakistan could easily take 100,000 dead and still replace those numbers like European armies could in early 20th century. In this scenario TTP or AT would never win. They would be worn out by numbers. In fact in Pakistan this is what has happened - TTP has been ground down. Yes, to be sure they still are pests and can still launch strikes but so could IRA against Britain as late as 1990s after decades of fighting. They nearly killed PM Thatcher, killed some senior British ministers, killed Lord Mountbatten who belonged to the British monarchy.

I don;t think you quite understand how deep the Pakistan Army has it's roots in large tract of northern Pakistan. It's almost as grounded as Turkish Army is in Turkish society.

I have never seen such a loyal Indonesian to US/NATO cause. Is he really an Indonesian you wonder.

This is the same guy that was claiming that Pakistan would provide military bases to the US not so long ago. The same guy that claimed Afghan Taliban would be defeated by Masood in the Panjshir valley LOL The same guy who said that Pakistan would be non-existent. Many came before him and said the same thing. Those US generals who scolded Pakistan are now retired and licking their wounds. Disgraced and humiliated. They will take their Pakistan grudge to their graves. Pakistan would still be here.

 

[Dalit]

It is not enough to know only the location of the target, it is necessary to know the time as well. The target that is there at time a, will not be there at time b. Because they are constantly moving. Counter-insurgency operations in large and mountainous terrain require a very strong ISR and communications infrastructure and experience. And yes, this infrastructure is certainly not cheap.

As I said before, the Pakistani core state and intelligence organization must face the hard facts as soon as possible. a) Pashtuns will never accept the Durand line as a border. b) The biggest danger for Pakistan is TLP and similar formations and the bigoted mullah class. Collaboration of these structures with extremists abroad will be particularly deadly for Pakistan.

Another problem for the Indian subcontinent is that radical religious movements in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran triggered the same thing in India. The radical hindu called Narendra Modi could not have come to power otherwise.

Which Pashtuns are you referring to? The Afghan Pashtuns? I am also a Pashtun, but a Pakistani Pashtun. There is a stark difference between a Pakistani Pashtun and an Afghan Pashtun. The Pakistani Pashtun don't recognise Afghan claims. We are culturally different to Afghan Pashtun. Our culture has evolved in Pakistan. We are loyal to Pakistan because we identify ourselves as Pakistanis. Afghan Pashtun have little in relevance with Pakistani Pashtun. We don't believe in Bacha Khan. We believe in Quaid-e-Azam.

If you mean that Afghan Pashtuns won't accept Durand Line so be it. As said previously, that is nothing new to us. What can the Afghan Pashtuns possibly do about it? The Afghan Pashtuns are free to walk in and take their so-called land. Let's see if they can do it. If the US/NATO and India couldn't deliver Pakistani land to Afghan Pashtun what makes you think that Afghan Pashtun can occupy Pakistani land? Today a vast majority of Pakistani Pashtun are part and parcel of the Pakistani military and ISI intelligence service. Don't question our loyalty to Pakistan. The Pashtun nationalism argument against Pakistan is a dead horse now. Especially after US/NATO loss in Afghanistan.

TLP is not an international terrorist movement like AQ or ISIS LOL It started as a protest against French blasphemous cartoons. This group demanded the expulsion of French diplomatic presence in Pakistan. How can TLP ever cooperate with international terror groups? That is just ridiculous.