Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429756402516463622

Take this case for example. A Taliban govt who is numb to the persecution of fellow muslims let alone outright appeasing China could very well be a cause of unease among even of it's most hardline supporters.

The Islamist will took notice on how the Taliban leadership reacts.

again a hard situation for the Taliban leadership:

1. Either they covertly help the insurgency in Pakistan ,China and India so they don't lose their Jihadi credentials. But probably caught red handed by the intelligence agencies in those countries. Making situation worse if not outright impossible for so called "integration".
2. Giving up on jihadi matters and blend into normal int'l politics. But in the process attract the anger of the Jihadist who is instrumental in their victory and power.

either way, it's a hard choice which could probably cost them a lot.

 

[Kaptaan]

1.Either dispose the hardliners to gain international legitimacy (could be limited to China and Pakistan)

Pakistan will not recognise IAE until a block emerges. At minimum China, along with Russia, Iran and Uzbekistan. This is minimum threshold for Pakistan and FM Qureshi's trip abroad as detailed in my post above referances this.

once the insurgents who successfully ran an insurgency and routed the communists from power.

True but is is Taliban. The much talked about Haqqani network has it's genesis from that era. Mullah Omar the founder of Taliban had lost a eye fighting the Russians. Even OBL was a Afghan jihad veteran. So nothing conspicious about that.

And I will say it again. The key to the future play is the five countries I listed. If they can work as a team everything will pan out nicely. Russians and Chinese have Central Asia in their grip. Only Iran is wild card. But Russians have some influence on Iran. Afghanistan is lynchpin of Eurasia thus it is for Eurasian powers to sort this mess out. Not Europe, not USA or India.

 

[Kaptaan]

anger of the Jihadist who is instrumental in their victory and power.

Your mistaken there. A typical Talib is a simple, mountain goat herder, has extreme trait of Pashtun xenophobia mixed in a cocktail of tribal code, a very rigid translation of Islam and regional politics. There is little interest with outside world which is why Taliban are not Al Qaeda. Taliban might even be taken as form of Pashtun nationalism.

 

[Gary]

Pakistan will not recognise IAE until a block emerges. At minimum China, along with Russia, Iran and Uzbekistan. This is minimum threshold for Pakistan and FM Qureshi's trip abroad as detailed in my post above referances this.

Ok

True but is is Taliban. The much talked about Haqqani network has it's genesis from that era. Mullah Omar the founder of Taliban had lost a eye fighting the Russians. Even OBL was a Afghan jihad veteran. So nothing conspicious about that.

which again refering to my post #5,126. Haqqani, Mullah Omar, OBL...all of them belong to the Islamist hardliner camp.
are you saying that the Taliban are all moderates in 2021???

I could say with certainty that there are already talks of dissent towards the Taliban leadership from among it's Islamist ranks after they had signal it's abandonment of int'l jihad, or after it had moderated it's view with the Hazara Shiites.

again Mr. Baradar of Taliban could be in a position of Karzai in 2001-2002.

the question this time is, who will the new IEA turn to when shit hits the fan ?? What if Mr.Baradar have to face an islamist insurgency while relying on low morale ex-ANA recruits in the future ???

it's the hardliner islamists in particular that rebuild the organization of it had been smacked by the US.

Your mistaken there. A typical Talib is a simple, mountain goat herder, has extreme trait of Pashtun xenophobia mixed in a cocktail of tribal code, a very rigid translation of Islam and regional politics. There is little interest with outside world which is why Taliban are not Al Qaeda. Taliban might even be taken as form of Pashtun nationalism.

haha

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1426877376726773761

And I will say it again. The key to the future play is the five countries I listed. If they can work as a team everything will pan out nicely. Russians and Chinese have Central Asia in their grip. Only Iran is wild card. But Russians have some influence on Iran. Afghanistan is lynchpin of Eurasia thus it is for Eurasian powers to sort this mess out. Not Europe, not USA or India.

great powers don't work together. They compete.

 

[Lonewolf]

Your mistaken there. A typical Talib is a simple, mountain goat herder, has extreme trait of Pashtun xenophobia mixed in a cocktail of tribal code, a very rigid translation of Islam and regional politics. There is little interest with outside world which is why Taliban are not Al Qaeda. Taliban might even be taken as form of Pashtun nationalism.

If it's pashtun nationalism , pakistan have lot of FC soldiers to save as pashtun on this side cough cough ..... Ttp .... Coughs , will ensure to create a mess greater than potential of pakistan to clear up .

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to Others

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430466268839153668

 

[Glass🚬]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430544903348658179

 

[Kaptaan]

them belong to the Islamist hardliner camp.

Islamists come in all shapes and sizes. It is continuum. Not a point on the line. If they were all a point you would see unity when I see little. They even fight with each other. Saudi's are also Islamists, you might even include Pakistan's PM Imran Khan as one and his detractors cal Erdogan a unrepentent Islamists.

As said before the crucial factor is will Taliban go with Afghan translated Islamism or go global Islamism. Thus far they have exhibited more nationalism fused with Islam then Al Qaeda style global jihad. You might and with good basis ask if that were the case why did Taliban V.01 host global jihadi's back in 2001 which is what got them in bother with USA.

The obvious reason is they beholden to OBL and other Arabs who had fought with them in the jihad against Russia in 1980s. Today most of that link has been killed by USA and Taliban v.02 have had 20 years to muse over what mistakes they made and Afghanistan as a country, like any country has moved forward.

The final thing to keeo in mind is back in 2001 Russia, Central Asia and Iran were putched against Pakistan and supported NA. Moscow still was very hostile to Pakistan but in 2021 relations are better. Pakistan has done much leg work with Uzbekistan and Iran. So there is good chance of regional consensus emerging which will weigh heavy on Taliban.

It is quite apparent to those of us who followed events in Afghanistan of 1990s like I did that Taliban v.02 are modified. Not quite as modified as some of us would like but they indeed have evolved. I personall expect IEA to look like Saudia Arabia sans gold plated Rolls Royces and palaces.

 

[Kaptaan]

If it's pashtun nationalism , pakistan have lot of FC soldiers to save as pashtun on this side cough cough ..... Ttp .... Coughs , will ensure to create a mess greater than potential of pakistan to clear up .

Instead of coughing so much, why not clear your throat and elaborate what your on about?

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to Others

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430499380759564291

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to Others

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430475706941722624

 

[Gary]

Islamists come in all shapes and sizes. It is continuum. Not a point on the line. If they were all a point you would see unity when I see little. They even fight with each other. Saudi's are also Islamists.

WRONG, Islamist had one thing in common, an establishment of the islamic law and transnational caliphate, the only difference is how they wanna do it. Al-Qaeda prefers Emirates like the Taliban while biding it's time, ISIS goes full berserk and starts attacking everyone.

when I said Islamist I mean hardline islamist, if they're Islamist in name only, then they would stay in Saudi Arabia instead of hiding in caves in Tora Bora striving to create an Islamic emirate.

As said before the crucial factor is will Taliban go with Afghan translated Islamism or go global Islamism. Thus far they have exhibited more nationalism fused with Islam then Al Qaeda style global jihad. You might and with good basis ask if that were the case why did Taliban V.01 host global jihadi's back in 2001 which is what got them in bother with USA.

correct, and those are shown from their leaders, dissent among the hardliners as post #5,123 shown, is guaranteed.

Today most of that link has been killed by USA and Taliban v.02 have had 20 years to muse over what mistakes they made and Afghanistan as a country, like any country has moved forward.

unless, they don't

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1426862781832339457

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430211121420570625

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430148206718078998

and it doesn't translate to the rank and file either

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1426877376726773761

It is quite apparent to those of us who followed events in Afghanistan of 1990s like I did that Taliban v.02 are modified. Not quite as modified as some of us would like but they indeed have evolved. I personall expect IEA to look like Saudia Arabia sans gold plated Rolls Royces and palaces.

Which is why the Taliban will be in trouble. the Islamist hated Saudi Arabia.
but in defense of Saudi Arabia, the country is rich and functioned under a central govt , while Afghanistan is not.

 

[Kaptaan]

MOSCOW: Russia, China, the United States and Pakistan are interested in serving as mediators in resolving the crisis in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday.

Pakistan among states ready to mediate in Afghanistan: Lavrov

Islamabad says an inclusive political settlement is the best way forward for peace and stability.

www.dawn.com

@AlphaMike sorry ran out of time but you do raise some very pertient questions. When I get time I will get to them.

 

[Gary]

MOSCOW: Russia, China, the United States and Pakistan are interested in serving as mediators in resolving the crisis in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday.

Pakistan among states ready to mediate in Afghanistan: Lavrov

Islamabad says an inclusive political settlement is the best way forward for peace and stability.

www.dawn.com

@AlphaMike sorry ran out of time but you do raise some very pertient questions. When I get time I will get to them.

anytime

 

[Lonewolf]

Instead of coughing so much, why not clear your throat and elaborate what your on about?

Taliban is a mixture of Islamist ideology suiting them plus pashtun nationalism , eariler they had a fear of attack of west , at this moment west is weak and they might get better deal with china than china can have with pakistan , so in case of them gaining confidence , they may start offensive in KP , they still are sanctuary to ttp and use ttp as bargain chip against Pakistan , they won't destroy ttp but use them to hurt pakistan at the same time show that they don't support pakistan .

And if they gain much more strength than present than durrand line offensive will be humongous as ttp supporter in KP will make hell . Also taliban is quite good at propoganda to further support in kyber .

This victory that pakistan is celebrating is not for pakistan population but for pakistan army in quest of kashmir as more terrorist are sourced , but for pakistan people , lot of bloodshed is on the way .

 

[Jackdaws]

This underlines what I said. How come the Dharmics don't grab the opportunity to go to fastest growing economy on earth - India? The reason is like any migrants USA, Canada and Europe are the preferred choices.

Here is a fact. If United States offered 100,000 free air seats to USA and a free hotel waiting on the other side with American citizenship guaranteed to Indians from Kolkatta I would wager millions would flood the airport to get a free ride to the first world. This applies to any Third World country.

They call it economic migration. The Afghan imbroglio is being used as a cover for economic migranation with perhaps 10% being genuine.

@Jackdaws These Hindus might be afraid of Taliban fanatics but what are they afraid of in India and instead prefer freezing Canada - RSS hooligans would take them in open arms - no?

Is this 10% number based on any evidence or is it a figment of your imagination?

Of course the Afghan Hindus and Sikhs would prefer the West over India. It's not rocket science that standard of living is significantly higher there.

Lol @ RSS. I've never even seen an RSS guy - it's not as if they are roaming around everywhere.

There is nothing hypocritical about the Hindus and Sikhs in Afghanistan preferring the West over India.

Of course what's hypocritical is the cheerleading Talibuddies continuing to reside in the West instead of going to live in Afghanistan they seem to so love.

 

[Jackdaws]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430565472962060294

 

[Jackdaws]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430565420424126471

 

[Jackdaws]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430565367273988099

 

[Jackdaws]

Link

My daughter saw Taliban kill four people. She is traumatised, Afghan national talks about his escape to India

Mohammad Khan, 32, said his daughter saw Taliban kill four people in front of her. Speaking to India Today TV, Khan tells the story of his escape from the war-torn nation.

www.indiatoday.in

A32-year-old Afghan national, who escaped the Taliban on an evacuation flight to India, said his younger daughter saw the Taliban fighters kill four people in front of her eyes.


Mohammad Khan is currently in West Bengal's Howrah district with his wife and two daughters, aged eight and nine. The man said he had landed in Delhi but later moved to Kolkata since he has a friend in Bengal.
"My daughter is so traumatised from the incident that she cries at night. I keep telling her to go back to sleep and that we are in India, and the Taliban are not here," said Mohammad Khan.