Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

[Jackdaws]

China Criticized the Afghan War. Now It Worries About the Withdrawal.​

An explosion that killed Chinese workers in Pakistan has stirred fears in Beijing of regional instability.

Kabul, Afghanistan, this month. Statements by senior Chinese officials made it clear that they would blame the United States for any insecurity that spreads in the region.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times


By Steven Lee Myers
July 15, 2021
阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版
The Chinese government rarely passes up a chance to accuse the United States of military adventurism and hegemony. In the case of Afghanistan, though, it has changed its tone, warning that Washington now bears the responsibility for the hasty end to its two-decade war there.
“The United States, which created the Afghan issue in the first place, should act responsibly to ensure a smooth transition in Afghanistan,” China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said this month at a forum in Beijing. “It should not simply shift the burden onto others and withdraw from the country with the mess left behind unattended.”
While China has not called on President Biden to reverse the military withdrawal he ordered, statements by senior officials made it clear that they would blame the United States for any insecurity that spreads in the region.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — neither of them close friends of the American president — raised concerns about the withdrawal in a call the two leaders had in late June, citing “the increasingly complicated and severe security situation,” according to the state news agency Xinhua.

An explosion and vehicle crash that killed nine Chinese workers in Pakistan on Wednesday has punctuated China’s fears of regional instability in the wake of the final American military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the chaos that is now spreading across the country.
China was quick to describe the explosion as an act of terrorism. Pakistan later described it as an accident, but the details remain murky, and China has previously found itself the target of threats from those opposed to its growing economic and diplomatic influence in the region.
Pakistan’s information minister, Fawad Chaudhry, said on Thursday that investigators had found traces of explosives, presumably on the bus carrying the Chinese workers. “Terrorism cannot be ruled out,” he wrote on Twitter.



Image

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, with Premier Li Keqiang in March at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Mr. Xi raised concerns about the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in June, citing security concerns.Credit...Nicolas Asfouri/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“They’re certainly feeling nervous,” said Barnett R. Rubin, a former State Department official and United Nations adviser on Afghanistan who is a senior fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation.

With only a residual military contingent left to protect the American Embassy in Kabul, the Taliban have been steadily expanding their political control as Afghan government forces crumble or retreat. This month, Taliban forces seized Badakhshan, the province that reaches the mountainous Chinese border through the Wakhan Corridor. While that narrow territory poses little direct security threat, China fears that the breakdown of order in Afghanistan could spill out of the country to other neighbors, including Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan.

Mr. Wang is traveling through Central Asia this week with the Afghan situation high on the agenda.
“We don’t want to see a turbulent country around us that becomes such a soil for terrorist activities,” said Li Wei, an analyst at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a research organization in Beijing affiliated with the Ministry of State Security.
The Taliban, when they governed Afghanistan before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, gave haven to some Uyghur fighters resisting Chinese rule in Xinjiang, the predominantly Muslim province in western China that the fighters call East Turkestan.
Video

A bus carrying dozens of construction workers fell into a ravine after a gas leak in the vehicle caused an explosion. The crash killed at least 12 people including nine Chinese, Pakistani officials said.CreditCredit...Rescue 1122, via EPA, via Shutterstock

Twenty-two of those fighters ended up in American custody in the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, only to be released slowly to several other countries, including Albania, Slovakia, Bermuda and Palau. Uyghur militants have also fought in Syria’s civil war, and there are reports that some have returned to Afghanistan.
“If there’s more disorder in Afghanistan, the Uyghurs could get a foothold again, or a bigger one,” Mr. Rubin said.

After the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States designated the East Turkestan Islamic Movement as a terrorist organization, in part to cultivate China’s support for American efforts in the “war on terror.” The Trump administration revoked the designation last year, saying that there was no evidence that the group continued to carry out attacks. China has cited the threat of Uyghur extremism as a reason for its mass detention camps in Xinjiang.
According to the United Nations, the Uyghur group once maintained links to Al Qaeda and organized attacks on targets inside and outside of China, including ones in Xinjiang that killed 140 people in 1998.
Liu Yunfeng, the director of the Counter-Terrorism Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, said this week at a news conference that while there had been no major terrorist attack in China in the past four years, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement continued to promote terrorism from abroad and train fighters “to sneak into our territory.”
“We still need to maintain a high degree of vigilance,” he said, according to a transcript posted by the ministry.

The Hotan bazaar in Xinjiang, China. The Taliban gave haven to Uyghur fighters resisting Chinese rule in Xinjiang when they were in power in Afghanistan.Credit...Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

With the American withdrawal on the horizon, China has sought to keep channels open to both the Taliban and Afghan forces, appealing for a peaceful resolution to decades of conflict that predated the American intervention. It has been a delicate diplomatic balance.
China has praised the current Afghan government, including what it says are efforts to fight the East Turkestan militants. It also played host to a delegation of Taliban leaders in 2019. While China has said little about the nature of its discussions with the group, it has muted its criticism as the American-led military presence winds down.


In recent statements, Taliban representatives have also sought to assuage China’s concerns about its past support for enemies of Chinese rule, saying a restored Taliban government would pose no threat to the country. In fact, it would welcome Chinese investments.
As the Taliban have steadily gained ground, China has left its diplomatic options open. The Global Times, a Communist Party newspaper that generally reflects the government’s hawkish side, suggested this week that fears about the collapse of the current Afghan government were overstated.
“With the evolving Afghanistan situation, the Taliban is quietly transforming itself to improve its international image, easing the concerns of and befriending neighboring countries,” the newspaper wrote on Tuesday.
Such views also reflect China’s close relationship with Pakistan, which provided support for the Taliban leadership during the long American involvement in Afghanistan.

Bagram Air Field in 2019 in Kabul. With the withdrawal of the American military, the Taliban have been steadily expanding their control, which China fears could bring chaos to neighboring countries.Credit...Erin Schaff/The New York Times

After Chinese officials initially denounced Wednesday’s deaths in Pakistan as a terrorist attack, they tempered their remarks when the Pakistani Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that the explosion that sent a truck tumbling into a ravine was caused by a mechanical malfunction. Exactly what happened remains unclear, however. At least two Pakistani paramilitary soldiers and two other civilians died, while more than 40 people were injured. It was not clear if the soldiers were guarding the workers as they traveled to a Chinese-built hydroelectric project at Dasu, a city in the country’s rural northwest, about 100 miles from the capital, Islamabad.


China has faced terrorist threats in Pakistan before. In 2018, three suicide attackers stormed the Chinese Consulate in Karachi, killing two police officers and two civilians before being killed themselves. The group that claimed responsibility for that attack, the Baluchistan Liberation Army, attacked a luxury hotel in Gwadar a year later, saying they were targeting Chinese guests.
In April, a different group attacked a hotel in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, only moments before China’s ambassador was scheduled to arrive. Although it was not clear if the attackers knew of the ambassador’s arrival, the group that claimed responsibility, the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, said its intended targets were “locals and foreigners” staying at the hotel.
After speaking with Pakistan’s foreign minister about the explosion on Wednesday, Mr. Wang, the foreign minister, called for greater security measures for Chinese construction projects in Pakistan, many of them being built under China’s “belt and road” initiative.
Chinese officials have offered to extend those projects to Afghanistan, but have made little progress. Previous Chinese projects there failed to live up to expectations, most prominently a copper mine concession that Chinese companies acquired in 2007.
“If it is a terrorist attack,” Mr. Wang said of the episode on Wednesday, “the perpetrators must be arrested immediately, and the perpetrators must be severely punished.”

China Criticized the Afghan War. Now It Worries About the Withdrawal. (Published 2021)

An explosion that killed Chinese workers in Pakistan has stirred fears in Beijing of regional instability.

www.nytimes.com

=================

@Nilgiri , as I said b4, retreat from Afghanistan is a geopolitical master stroke by Biden

Reminds me of the story from Charlie Wilson's War

There lived an old farmer who had worked in his fields for many, many years. One day, his horse bolted away. His neighbors dropped in to commiserate with him. “What awful luck,” they tut-tutted sympathetically, to which the farmer only replied, “We’ll see.”

Next morning, to everyone’s surprise, the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. “How amazing is that!” they exclaimed in excitement. The old man replied, “We’ll see.”

A day later, the farmer’s son tried to mount one of the wild horses. He was thrown on the ground and broke his leg. Once more, the neighbors came by to express their sympathies for this stroke of bad luck. “We’ll see,” said the farmer politely.

The next day, the village had some visitors – military officers who had come with the purpose of drafting young men into the army. They passed over the farmer’s son, thanks to his broken leg. The neighbors patted the farmer on his back – how lucky he was to not have his son join the army! “We’ll see,” was all that the farmer said!

 

[Dalit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416285543298736128

According to tweet, Ankara. Refugees are coming en mass.

The refugee deal is a bigger problem than ever. Scrap it and whatever will happen will

Reintroduce death sentence, even if it means the end of EU membership it will make it harder for EU to send people back to Turkey. And traitors can seek assylun in Western countries. We can make them and their kids person non grata like the Ottomans were for 100 years.

They are all heading to European capitals. Mark my words. European capitals will be forced to accommodate Afghan refugees. Just like Syrian and Iraqi refugees.

 

[Gary]

Reminds me of the story from Charlie Wilson's War

There lived an old farmer who had worked in his fields for many, many years. One day, his horse bolted away. His neighbors dropped in to commiserate with him. “What awful luck,” they tut-tutted sympathetically, to which the farmer only replied, “We’ll see.”

Next morning, to everyone’s surprise, the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. “How amazing is that!” they exclaimed in excitement. The old man replied, “We’ll see.”

A day later, the farmer’s son tried to mount one of the wild horses. He was thrown on the ground and broke his leg. Once more, the neighbors came by to express their sympathies for this stroke of bad luck. “We’ll see,” said the farmer politely.

The next day, the village had some visitors – military officers who had come with the purpose of drafting young men into the army. They passed over the farmer’s son, thanks to his broken leg. The neighbors patted the farmer on his back – how lucky he was to not have his son join the army! “We’ll see,” was all that the farmer said!

Can Beijing avoid being drawn into the Afghan quagmire?
16 Jul 2021|Connor Dilleen

Since Washington’s February 2020 agreement with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan, some commentators have suggested that China may step into the vacuum. Beijing may be watching recent events with some apprehension, but it will also see the US withdrawal as presenting opportunities.
China has significant strategic, security and economic interests in the region that give it a stake in Afghanistan’s future stability. Its direct economic interests in Afghanistan include a 30-year lease on the Mes Aynak copper mine, which it has held since 2007 but hasn’t been able to exploit due to the volatile security situation. Beijing also likely has an eye on Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources, which are estimated to be worth more than US$1 trillion and include significant quantities of rare-earth elements.
Over the past 20 years, China has benefited from American and NATO involvement in the region, which provided the security environment that enabled Beijing to pursue its Belt and Road Initiative across Pakistan and Central Asia. China has invested particularly heavily in both Pakistan and Tajikistan, which represent important elements of two key BRI corridors. But they also share long and porous borders and ethnic and tribal links with Afghanistan and are acutely vulnerable to instability in Afghanistan.
China also sees Afghanistan as important to the security of its Xinjiang region because Afghanistan has long been used as a refuge by Uyghurs fleeing persecution in China, and also reportedly as a base by Uyghur militants.
While the form and substance of Beijing’s Afghanistan strategy are still taking shape, it will likely focus on drawing whoever is in power in Kabul into its orbit through targeted financial support and investment. Beijing may want to avoid undertaking any heavy lifting on Afghan security, but it will probably act to limit any instability or threats arising from the US departure that would impinge upon Chinese security interests or regional BRI investments.
Some commentators have argued that China will pursue its agenda in Afghanistan via a cooperative framework involving Pakistan, Russia and Iran and will stop short of committing ‘boots on the ground’ in Afghanistan. Others have suggested that Afghanistan is so central to China’s ‘march west’ that it’s inevitable that China will play a more direct and influential role in Afghanistan’s future security.
Beijing has long demonstrated a willingness to play both sides of the Afghan divide. In 2018, it emerged that a Chinese delegation to Kabul had gained agreement from the government of President Ashraf Ghani to construct a Chinese military base in north Afghanistan. In 2020, it was reported that Beijing had entered into negotiations with the Taliban, promising ‘sizable investments in energy and infrastructure projects’—including motorways linking Afghanistan’s main cities and projects involving electricity generation and oil and gas transportation—in return for ‘peace’. And in late 2020, Beijing’s relationship with Kabul was rocked by revelations of a Chinese intelligence operation working with the terrorist Haqqani network—a close Taliban ally that maintains links with both al-Qaeda and Islamic State—to hunt down Uyghurs in Afghanistan.
China’s interaction with the Taliban and the Haqqani network also suggests that Beijing has long understood what Washington has refused to admit: that the US’s rapid drawdown will inevitably lead to a Taliban ascendency in Afghanistan. This has been reinforced by the Taliban’s gains in the past two months. Between 1 May and 13 June 2021, the group increased its share of territory under its control from 73 districts to 223. The number of government-controlled districts has correspondingly declined from 115 to 73, and the Taliban are currently contesting control of a further 111 districts.
Beijing has also offered to facilitate a new peace process involving the Afghan government and the Taliban, and has lobbied for a new UN assistance mandate for Afghanistan to succeed the mandate that expires in September 2021. As Brahma Chellaney noted in a recent piece, however, Beijing may favour the Taliban and use the lure of international recognition and economic aid to cement its relationship with a future Taliban government.
Beijing appears confident that it has the skills to navigate the volatile political and security situation in Afghanistan. An opinion piece in the Global Times—the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party—said that China can’t ‘sit idle and keep itself out of Afghan affairs’, arguing that ‘compared to other powers, China has the ability to get involved in Afghan affairs without becoming entangled in it’. If this comment reflects the thinking of the Chinese leadership, it demonstrates a wicked combination of hubris and naivety that may lead to miscalculation.
Events in Afghanistan already appear to be escalating faster than anticipated and may defy Beijing’s ability to step into the role of peacemaker. The conflict is also threatening to draw in Afghanistan’s neighbours. Tajikistan is already dealing with an influx of Afghan refugees, including Afghan National Security Forces, and has effectively lost control of its border with Afghanistan. It has mobilised 20,000 troops on its border and called for support from Collective Security Treaty Organization members, which include Russia. These events clearly cut across Beijing’s interest given that Tajikistan is of great strategic importance to it. China already maintains a military base on Tajik soil and the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan may force Beijing to commit to a more direct role in the region, including through the deployment of peacekeepers in Afghanistan.
While the Taliban currently appear amenable to Beijing’s overtures, there’s no guarantee that they’ll continue to be once the US is fully out of the picture, even if Beijing delivers on its investment promises. Over time, China will likely come to be viewed as yet another meddling imperialist power exploiting Afghanistan’s suffering for its own benefit. And while the Taliban have turned a blind eye to China’s persecution of its Turkic Muslim minorities, it’s plausible that grassroots resentment over this issue may become more prominent over time. In addition, the Taliban aren’t the only militant Islamist group active in the region. Groups such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State have already indicated their intent, in actions and in words, to attack Chinese interests in the region.
The deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan has significant ramifications for China’s regional interests. Despite Beijing’s belief that it can engage with Afghanistan on its terms and at arm’s length, it’s likely that China will soon find itself deeply entangled in post-US Afghan affairs. As demonstrated by the experience of other ‘imperialist powers’ that dared to step into the Afghan cauldron, this rarely ends well.

Can Beijing avoid being drawn into the Afghan quagmire? | The Strategist

Since Washington’s February 2020 agreement with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan, some commentators have suggested that China may step into the vacuum. Beijing may be watching recent events with some apprehension, but it will ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

 

[Jackdaws]

Can Beijing avoid being drawn into the Afghan quagmire?
16 Jul 2021|Connor Dilleen

Since Washington’s February 2020 agreement with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan, some commentators have suggested that China may step into the vacuum. Beijing may be watching recent events with some apprehension, but it will also see the US withdrawal as presenting opportunities.
China has significant strategic, security and economic interests in the region that give it a stake in Afghanistan’s future stability. Its direct economic interests in Afghanistan include a 30-year lease on the Mes Aynak copper mine, which it has held since 2007 but hasn’t been able to exploit due to the volatile security situation. Beijing also likely has an eye on Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources, which are estimated to be worth more than US$1 trillion and include significant quantities of rare-earth elements.
Over the past 20 years, China has benefited from American and NATO involvement in the region, which provided the security environment that enabled Beijing to pursue its Belt and Road Initiative across Pakistan and Central Asia. China has invested particularly heavily in both Pakistan and Tajikistan, which represent important elements of two key BRI corridors. But they also share long and porous borders and ethnic and tribal links with Afghanistan and are acutely vulnerable to instability in Afghanistan.
China also sees Afghanistan as important to the security of its Xinjiang region because Afghanistan has long been used as a refuge by Uyghurs fleeing persecution in China, and also reportedly as a base by Uyghur militants.
While the form and substance of Beijing’s Afghanistan strategy are still taking shape, it will likely focus on drawing whoever is in power in Kabul into its orbit through targeted financial support and investment. Beijing may want to avoid undertaking any heavy lifting on Afghan security, but it will probably act to limit any instability or threats arising from the US departure that would impinge upon Chinese security interests or regional BRI investments.
Some commentators have argued that China will pursue its agenda in Afghanistan via a cooperative framework involving Pakistan, Russia and Iran and will stop short of committing ‘boots on the ground’ in Afghanistan. Others have suggested that Afghanistan is so central to China’s ‘march west’ that it’s inevitable that China will play a more direct and influential role in Afghanistan’s future security.
Beijing has long demonstrated a willingness to play both sides of the Afghan divide. In 2018, it emerged that a Chinese delegation to Kabul had gained agreement from the government of President Ashraf Ghani to construct a Chinese military base in north Afghanistan. In 2020, it was reported that Beijing had entered into negotiations with the Taliban, promising ‘sizable investments in energy and infrastructure projects’—including motorways linking Afghanistan’s main cities and projects involving electricity generation and oil and gas transportation—in return for ‘peace’. And in late 2020, Beijing’s relationship with Kabul was rocked by revelations of a Chinese intelligence operation working with the terrorist Haqqani network—a close Taliban ally that maintains links with both al-Qaeda and Islamic State—to hunt down Uyghurs in Afghanistan.
China’s interaction with the Taliban and the Haqqani network also suggests that Beijing has long understood what Washington has refused to admit: that the US’s rapid drawdown will inevitably lead to a Taliban ascendency in Afghanistan. This has been reinforced by the Taliban’s gains in the past two months. Between 1 May and 13 June 2021, the group increased its share of territory under its control from 73 districts to 223. The number of government-controlled districts has correspondingly declined from 115 to 73, and the Taliban are currently contesting control of a further 111 districts.
Beijing has also offered to facilitate a new peace process involving the Afghan government and the Taliban, and has lobbied for a new UN assistance mandate for Afghanistan to succeed the mandate that expires in September 2021. As Brahma Chellaney noted in a recent piece, however, Beijing may favour the Taliban and use the lure of international recognition and economic aid to cement its relationship with a future Taliban government.
Beijing appears confident that it has the skills to navigate the volatile political and security situation in Afghanistan. An opinion piece in the Global Times—the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party—said that China can’t ‘sit idle and keep itself out of Afghan affairs’, arguing that ‘compared to other powers, China has the ability to get involved in Afghan affairs without becoming entangled in it’. If this comment reflects the thinking of the Chinese leadership, it demonstrates a wicked combination of hubris and naivety that may lead to miscalculation.
Events in Afghanistan already appear to be escalating faster than anticipated and may defy Beijing’s ability to step into the role of peacemaker. The conflict is also threatening to draw in Afghanistan’s neighbours. Tajikistan is already dealing with an influx of Afghan refugees, including Afghan National Security Forces, and has effectively lost control of its border with Afghanistan. It has mobilised 20,000 troops on its border and called for support from Collective Security Treaty Organization members, which include Russia. These events clearly cut across Beijing’s interest given that Tajikistan is of great strategic importance to it. China already maintains a military base on Tajik soil and the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan may force Beijing to commit to a more direct role in the region, including through the deployment of peacekeepers in Afghanistan.
While the Taliban currently appear amenable to Beijing’s overtures, there’s no guarantee that they’ll continue to be once the US is fully out of the picture, even if Beijing delivers on its investment promises. Over time, China will likely come to be viewed as yet another meddling imperialist power exploiting Afghanistan’s suffering for its own benefit. And while the Taliban have turned a blind eye to China’s persecution of its Turkic Muslim minorities, it’s plausible that grassroots resentment over this issue may become more prominent over time. In addition, the Taliban aren’t the only militant Islamist group active in the region. Groups such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State have already indicated their intent, in actions and in words, to attack Chinese interests in the region.
The deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan has significant ramifications for China’s regional interests. Despite Beijing’s belief that it can engage with Afghanistan on its terms and at arm’s length, it’s likely that China will soon find itself deeply entangled in post-US Afghan affairs. As demonstrated by the experience of other ‘imperialist powers’ that dared to step into the Afghan cauldron, this rarely ends well.

Can Beijing avoid being drawn into the Afghan quagmire? | The Strategist

Since Washington’s February 2020 agreement with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan, some commentators have suggested that China may step into the vacuum. Beijing may be watching recent events with some apprehension, but it will ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

I think there are too many possibilities to predict what will happen. All these analyses are based on the Taliban being one entity. I doubt it. There must be fissures based on tribes and regions even within the Taliban. They aren't even very good fighters considered over the last couple hundred years they have been conquered by whoever has come in. But they are tenacious and can play the waiting game till their conquerors just give up trying to civilize them.

 

[Gary]

I think there are too many possibilities to predict what will happen. All these analyses are based on the Taliban being one entity. I doubt it. There must be fissures based on tribes and regions even within the Taliban. They aren't even very good fighters considered over the last couple hundred years they have been conquered by whoever has come in. But they are tenacious and can play the waiting game till their conquerors just give up trying to civilize them.

The Taliban is a decentralized organization, that means whatever the dudes in Doha are trying to portray themselves should not be taken as face value, just last week the Taliban killed Hazara just because they're Hazara, and in June they burned a Hazara town.

We should not ignore the fact that many Taliban fighters (like all Jihadi) are very sensitive towards Islam and muslims in general let alone the Uyghurs next door.

If Saudi Arabia after decades of watering down Islam to be US foreign policy compatible couldn't stop many of it's citizens joining jihad abroad then what chances are decentralized org like Taliban?

We're not even talking ISIS Khurasan or TTP, which could flourish once the US is gone. This time it's in China hands to choose wether they step foot in Afghanistan to go after them like the previous failed superpower.


But yeah this is too early to make a judgement. But from the looks of it not that good

 

[Dalit]

@Kaptaan @Corona @Nein2.0(Nomad) @Philips

That is right folks. This is the day why we built the fence and the US/NATO kept criticising Pakistan.

Pakistan-Afghan border security has been beefed up & 2611 KM stretch of border has now been fenced.

Forts have also been built with proper mechanisms and new FC wings developed to manage the posts.

 

[Dalit]

China could soon have an unlikely supporter in Central Asia -- the Taliban

Following the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban is again resurgent, taking control of great swathes of the country. The speed at which Afghan security forces have lost control to the Taliban has shocked many, and led to concerns the capital Kabul could be next to fall.

The Islamist group is already planing for such a future, with a Taliban spokesman telling the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post earlier this week that China was a "welcome friend," and conversations over reconstruction should begin "as soon as possible."

The possibility of the Chinese government cooperating with the Taliban in a post-US Afghanistan is not as unlikely as it may first appear. Afghanistan remains a key component in Beijing's long-term regional development plans. In May, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Beijing was in discussions with Islamabad and Kabul to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan, including expanding transport and trade networks between the three countries.

Nor is China averse to dealing with the Taliban, having publicly welcomed the militant group to Beijing in September 2019 for peace talks.

The Taliban, meanwhile, has made clear it would be willing to overlook any perceived grievances, with a spokesman telling the Wall Street Journal earlier this month the group had no interest in criticizing China over its alleged repression of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. "We care about the oppression of Muslims ... But what we are not going to do is interfere in China's internal affairs," he was quoted as saying

China could soon have an unlikely supporter in Central Asia -- the Taliban | CNN

One is a government accused of detaining more than 1 million Muslims in a vast system of internment camps. The other is one of the world's strictest Islamist militant groups. Yet despite their differences, the Chinese Communist Party and the Taliban may soon find themselves working together, at...

edition.cnn.com

It is all falling in place.

 

[Dalit]

Agony of the Afghan translators' wives abandoned by Britain: Their husbands won sanctuary - but small print says loved ones can't join them​

She has so far been unable to join him in Britain and accused the UK Government of ‘cruelty’ and denying her the right to live with her husband.

‘It is heartbreaking,’ the 34-year-old said. ‘I am suffering from deep depression. I know that the Taliban is growing stronger and with it the threat against me becomes greater.

‘My life is nothing without my husband. Britain is a country which believes in the rights of women and hears the voice of women – but it is denying me the basic right of living with my family.’

Mohammadi is one of a dozen wives of ex-Afghan interpreters to have begun unprecedented legal action against the British Government to allow them to join their husbands in this country.

They are caught in a loophole because they were engaged but not yet married to their husbands when the men were granted sanctuary in the UK.

This means they must apply under normal immigration and asylum rules, one requirement being that they must speak English.

Had they been married at the time of relocation, the wives would have been able to join their husbands in the UK.

The agony of the Afghan translators' wives abandoned by Britain

Mohammadi is one of a dozen wives of ex-Afghan interpreters to have begun unprecedented legal action against the British Government to allow them to join their husbands in this country.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Looks like Western capitals need to prepare for a full fledged arrival of Afghan families. Laws need to be changed to acommodate Afghans.

It is funny to read the comments. Right wing elements are torn apart whether European nations should take in Afghans. Many argue that Afghans cannot be trusted. Even if they risked their lives to assist US/NATO forces. It is going to get ugly.

 

[Dalit]

Pompeo: Afghans should step up to fight Taliban​

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Friday the Afghan people should take up arms to prevent the Taliban from gaining full control of the country.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Friday the Afghan people should take up arms to prevent the Taliban from gaining full control of the country.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Pompeo said that as U.S. forces withdraw from Afghanistan, he believes Afghan forces can secure the country, but it will depend on whether they have the will to fight. Thousands of Afghanis have fled the country in recent days as Taliban forces have surged through northern Afghanistan.

"I saw some 22, 23-year-old Afghan male saying 'It's really dangerous here. I want to get out,'" Pompeo said. "What those Afghans should've been saying 'It's really dangerous here. Give me an M-16.' They need to fight for their own country. We don't need to send Americans to fight if the Afghan people aren't willing to fight for their freedom."

Pompeo: Afghans should step up to fight Taliban

www.republicworld.com

Wow. Just wow. Pompeo is pleading to young Afghans to pick up arms and fight for the US cause. Nice one. The audacity of these people.

 

[Gary]

It's one thing to conduct a successful nation wide insurgency, and it's a whole lot different thing when you shift into nation building.

Isis for example execute a very successful campaign of insurgency and conquest in Iraq and Syria in the 2011-2013 period, then they decide it's time to scale up things a little bit and so they did, in 2014 they declared their caliphate,.......

And now they're gone.

Once the Taliban ruled Kabul once again it will face the stress which is the governance of a nation, 20 years had passed and the Taliban isn't the only player in town, as I said before, like all Jihadi, many of it's fighters have a sense of zealously towards Islam and muslims (hence they join Jihad in the first place) . They're not (I repeat) they are NOT your usual nationalistic fanboys, they do all this because they believe in god and god will reward them. Your usual nationalism ideas of national interest doesn't matter at all for them.

The Taliban appearing weak in front of China which oppressed it's Muslim population could resulted in many of it's fighters doing attacks on China's interest unauthorized by the Taliban central govt itself. This could be manipulated by ISIS-KP who seeks to be seen as the only Jihadis who is harsh towards China. Also in the list is the TTP

Again if this happened China will have to choose if they wanted to step on the path that the previous superpower had stepped in before.

A scenario of China suddenly become embroiled in Afghanistan will resulted them being seen as another imperial power in Afghanistan by the locals. And that is dangerous.

We still haven't talked about how the regional powers could share the country for influence. Might want to remember that even the closest allies in the surface tends to bicker below the desk. the Russian-Iran relationship in Syria is one such example.

 

[Dalit]

Superb article explaining China's plans in Afghanistan.

China could help deliver to Afghanistan what America promised to

Some nations love to destroy, while others love to create. And few nations make their policy preferences – and differences – clearer than the U.S. and China.

Today, as the U.S. is forced to leave Afghanistan after destroying it, China's assistance could prove equally helpful to the war-torn nation.

This familiar pattern of western barbarism or apathy followed by Chinese assistance could soon be seen in Afghanistan. While the West has spent 20 years killing more than 200,000 people and mauling Afghanistan beyond recognition, China appears to stabilize it and build much-needed infrastructure.

China would hope that after the complete exit of destabilizing NATO forces, Afghanistan could clean up and participate in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Given the proper environment and patient deal-making, China could very well be able to replicate the BRI's global success in the war-torn nation.

Afghanistan is also an observer state in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group has a meeting on July 13-14.

With the violent superpower out of the way, China could very well help deliver to the people of Afghanistan what America promised it would.

China could help deliver to Afghanistan what America promised to

Some nations love to destroy, while others love to create. And few nations make their policy preferences – and differences – clearer than the U.S. and China.

news.cgtn.com

 

[Dalit]

There you go. Who says China cannot trade with Afghanistan even when a full fledged war is ongoing?

Chinese freight arrives in Hairatan​

AFGHANISTAN: The first shipment of Chinese commercial and transit goods to arrive in the current solar year was delivered to the commercial port of Hairatan on July 11, having been moved by rail from Urumqi via Uzbekistan.

Chinese freight arrives in Hairatan

AFGHANISTAN: The first shipment of Chinese commercial and transit goods to arrive in the current solar year was delivered to the commercial port of Hairatan on July 11, having been moved by rail from Urumqi via Uzbekistan. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the train organised by ...

www.railwaygazette.com

The Afghan Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement on Wednesday that China's shipment of goods arrived in Afghanistan from the Hairatan Port, a borden town and a port in the north of Balkh province.

The consignment included 513 containers of commercial goods from China, which arrived in the country via railroad for the first time during the current solar year.

The cargo was shipped from the Chinese city of Urumqi and imported by Afghan cargo via the railway.

Officials at the port say the shipment includes electrical appliances, toiletries, clothing for women, men and children, children's toys and other commercial goods.

The port of Hairatan is one of the connecting points of the country with Central Asia , connecting Afghanistan with the Republic of Uzbekistan. According to the Afghan government, most of the country's commercial goods currently enter Afghanistan through Uzbekistan and through the port of Hairatan.

China's First Shipment to Afghanistan Through Hairatan Port Enters Afghanistan

The Afghan Ministry of Commerce and <a target=_blank href=https://menafn.com/MenaGoogleSearch.aspx?cx=partner-pub-1786942026589567%3Asao396-3ere&c

menafn.com

 

[Gary]

It's useless showing whatever China economic activities in the country as proof that China has been waiting for NATO departure.

China HAD already did that many years ago. All while under the security umbrella of NATO.

Mes Aynak - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Gary]

Russia: Afghan instability heightens with hasty US retreat​

By KATHY GANNON, VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV and MSTYSLAV CHERNOVyesterday




TASHKENT, Uzbekistan (AP) — America’s hasty retreat from Afghanistan has destabilized the region and worsened the terrorist threat, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a conference of world powers and Afghanistan’s neighbors Friday as they sought a common path toward resolving the country’s escalating violence.
Participants gathering in the Uzbek capital of Tashkent traded stinging criticisms and finger-pointing over the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. Taliban forces have surged in recent weeks, capturing dozens of districts and key border region from the faltering Afghan security forces and military as the U.S. and NATO complete their withdrawal.
The conference had originally been intended to discuss building better transportation links across Central and South Asia, but that agenda was trumped by the Taliban advances.
All the participants — including the U.S., Russia, China and many of Afghanistan’s neighbors — have hands in the Afghan conflict. Few want an outright Taliban takeover in the country, but the conference’s early tone pointed to the difficulty of finding common ground over how to salvage a peaceful settlement.

Russia: Afghan instability heightens with hasty US retreat

TASHKENT, Uzbekistan (AP) — America’s hasty retreat from Afghanistan has destabilized the region and worsened the terrorist threat, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a conference of world powers and Afghanistan's neighbors Friday as they sought a common path toward resolving the country's

apnews.com

 

[Dalit]

China-proposed regional connectivity a 'specific and concrete step' to work on Afghan peace: analysts

China urges Central and South Asian countries to forge a closer regional connectivity partnership through high-quality cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed on Friday. Analysts say the move is a concrete plan to glue regional countries together on working on a solution for Afghan peace.

Wang made the remarks while attending a high-level international conference themed "Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity, Challenges and Opportunities."

The minister said China is ready to work with all parties to align their infrastructure development strategies, push forward "hard connectivity" and "soft connectivity" in parallel, and build an all-dimensional, multi-faceted and sustainable connectivity network.

China will continue to work with the international community, especially Afghanistan's neighboring countries, to facilitate peace talks through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other mechanisms, Wang said.

China-proposed regional connectivity a 'specific and concrete step' to work on Afghan peace: analysts - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

China stating crystal clear its intentions. Regional connectivity priority number one.

 

[Dalit]

LMAO look who is worried and pitching Chabahar. Wasn't India kicked out of Chabahar project?

Jaishankar pitches for connectivity with Afghanistan via Chabahar, takes jibe at China, Pakistan​

Jaishankar pitches for connectivity with Afghanistan via Chabahar, takes jibe at China, Pakistan

Addressing a conference in Tashkent on regional connectivity of Central & South Asia, also attended by China & Pakistan, Jaishankar said connectivity efforts must conform to international laws.

theprint.in

Get ready folks. Intense rivalry, enmity and geopolitical tussles are on their way. It will be China versus India. As US/NATO was preparing Indian entry into CAS which spectacularly failed, we will now witness a fierce competition between these regional powers.

 

[Gary]

It's interesting all these Chinese economic projects "proposed" in Afghanistan.

Isis in Afghanistan (ISIS-K) is known to conduct an economic warfare campaign, their usual modus operandi is by blowing up infrastructure, like electrical towers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1407786150480257027

I hope China and whoever wants to enter Afghanistan realized the risk of such thing.

The only way China could ensure almost total stability on its projects is by deployments of troops, but then they'll be stepping on that very same path the Soviets ,US and UK troops had all took before.

 

[Dalit]

Pakistan, Afghanistan can serve as bridge connecting Central Asia, Arabian Sea: FM

Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi says Pakistan has a vital interest in a peaceful, stable, united and prosperous Afghanistan, as it would enable both countries to serve a bridge connecting Central Asia and the Arabian Sea and beyond.

The Foreign Minister was addressing through video-link the forum of Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), the third Charter organ of the United Nations on its 75th anniversary.

He said there are numerous shovel-ready projects awaiting peace in Afghanistan, such as TAPI gas pipeline, CASA-1000 electricity grid from Tajikistan and the railway connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

He said first phase of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is nearly to complete and the second phase envisages the creation of several Special Economic Zones, which are open to participation of third countries.

He said Pakistan greatly appreciates the intention of several fraternal and friendly countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey and others, to invest in Pakistan's economy.

Pakistan, Afghanistan can serve as bridge connecting Central Asia, Arabian Sea: FM

Pakistan, Afghanistan can serve as bridge connecting Central Asia, Arabian Sea: FM

www.radio.gov.pk

The writing is on the wall. Regional connectivity.

 

[Dalit]

PM Imran calls upon EU, int'l community to support rehabilitation of Afghan refugees​

Imran says Afghan peace can be settled through Afghan-owned and led process, asks international community for support

Prime Minister Imran Khan on Saturday called upon the European Union and the international community to support Pakistan in the rehabilitation of Afghan refugees.

The premier’s remarks came during a meeting with the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borell, on the sidelines of the Tashkent conference in Uzbekistan.

“The upcoming rail project between Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan would connect the people of the region and boost development,” he said.

PM Imran calls upon the EU to support refugee rehabilitation | The Express Tribune

Imran says Afghan peace can be settled through Afghan-owned and led process, asks international community for support

tribune.com.pk

Oh I am loving this. What an outspoken PM we have. May God bless him.

 

[Gary]

How US withdrawal from Afghanistan will undermine Russia's efforts to dominate Eurasia​

Most of those decrying the imminent termination of America's military mission in Afghanistan tend to do so in terms of the logic of liberal internationalism. According to this logic, the end of the Cold War created a new international order defined by unipolarity (with the United States as the sole superpower) and the ascendancy of an essentially liberal set of norms, rules and institutions that it was believed would deliver both perpetual peace and universal prosperity.

With the birth of the "unipolar moment," however, new threats also appeared. While the existential menace of Soviet hegemonism had disappeared, the lesser-but-still-worrying dangers posed by "rogue states," "global terrorism" and "state failure" replaced it in the geopolitical imagination of the American foreign policy establishment.

In turn, this gave rise to a new grand strategy - liberal internationalism - the main thrust of which was that U.S. military primacy and unmatched soft power resources should be used to uphold, police and defend the newly minted "Liberal International Order" (LIO). A replacement for the Cold War grand strategy of containment, like that earlier geopolitical framework liberal internationalism became the overarching vision guiding U.S. foreign and defense policy.

Viewed against this backdrop, the two decade-long U.S. mission to Afghanistan makes a great deal of sense - at least as an aspiration. Illiberal forces had attacked not just the United States, but two of the principal icons of the LIO, the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Moreover, they had done so from beyond the frontiers of the liberal world - from the illiberal and therefore dangerously retrograde country of Afghanistan. From the perspective of liberal internationalism, a U.S. invasion to extirpate al Qaeda and its Taliban patrons, followed by a campaign to transform Afghanistan into a functioning liberal democracy, made perfect sense. Indeed, viewed through the lens of liberal internationalism, it was the only option that made sense.

Conversely, when viewed from the perspective of liberal internationalism, the now-imminent U.S. withdrawal looks like a serious mistake. For not only does it augur the retrocession of Afghanistan to a place beyond the liberal pale - with all that that entails for those Afghans who threw their lot in with the U.S. and other forces of liberalism - but it also signals a failure of the U.S. to uphold and defend the LIO itself. Both sentiments are on prominent display in the recent hand-wringing about the "loss" of Afghanistan.

But there is another way to look at the U.S. withdrawal. If one rejects the nostrums and shibboleths of liberal internationalism and adopts instead a more realist perspective, concerns about threats to the LIO - now increasingly re-branded as the "rules-based order" - and the loss of Afghanistan to the forces of illiberalism quickly fade. And as those concerns fade, a strategic upside begins to come into focus. Most immediately, this upside takes the form of a decisive end to the flow of American blood in, and treasure to, Afghanistan. As importantly, however, the upside to a U.S. withdrawal from that country also takes the form of destabilizing Russia's southern flank and thus weakening Moscow's ability to pursue its great power ambitions in both Central Asia and Europe.

How so?



Well, consider the likely outcome of the U.S. withdrawal - the collapse of the Afghan national government and the emergence of a Taliban emirate in its place. If this were to happen, and the Taliban - like so many revolutionary movements - were to seek to export the revolution, this might well destabilize neighboring Central Asian states.

Tajikistan is already experiencing the tremors that might well presage a regional geopolitical earthquake and has been forced to call on Russia and other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) - a post-Soviet, Russian-dominated military alliance - to provide assistance in dealing with security challenges emerging from neighboring Afghanistan. Russia seems likely to respond by augmenting its military forces already deployed to its base at Dushanbe, the country's capital.

Should this tremor in fact prove to be the harbinger of more general unrest in Central Asia, Russia will be required to devote more - perhaps considerably more - military resources to the region. For should any of the CSTO member states fall to Taliban-aligned movements emboldened by the fall of the Afghan national government and the "defeat" of the United States, Russia's status as regional security-guarantor and hegemon will be cast into considerable doubt.



But even if the Kremlin's worst-case scenario does not come to pass, continued Taliban-fomented unrest throughout the region will still demand Russia's increased attention. Quite apart from the region's economic importance - it is an important source of cheap migrant labor for the Russian economy - Central Asian instability and insurgencies have a way of spilling over into Russia proper. And we shouldn't forget that Russia still sees the region as part of its near-abroad - a space that it believes it is entitled to dominate by right.

For all of these reasons, Moscow simply cannot afford the luxury of sitting idly by while the Taliban stir up trouble in the region. If Kabul falls, Russia will be drawn ever more deeply into an increasingly unstable Central Asia. And while the likelihood of it being drawn once again into the graveyard of empires is remote, that of being drawn into the immediate environs of that graveyard is considerable.

And that is why, from a realist perspective, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan does not constitute a strategic disaster. In a new era of great power competition, preventing any country from dominating the heart of Eurasia should be a goal of American grand strategy. A Taliban-dominated Afghanistan, emboldened by its victory over the United States to take its insurrection on the road, is likely to undermine Russian efforts - and perhaps Chinese ones, too - to achieve such dominance. While this will doubtless prove most unwelcome in Moscow, it should be viewed much more favorably in Washington. Whether it will or not largely depends on whether the American foreign policy establishment is finally ready to move beyond the liberal internationalism of yesteryear and embrace instead the timeless logic of balance-of-power realism.



Andrew Latham is a professor of international relations at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota.

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I'd rather listen to a international relations Professor.

i've been right all along, the retreat from Afghanistan is a geopolitical master stroke