Indonesia Casual Discussion Warkop Indonesia

[Gary]

It just like people everywhere enjoying Chinese stuff. What you expect when movements can’t do anything nowadays

One of the thing that cements my belief that liberal democracies won't survive anything and merely hang by the thin thread that is U.S power is the fact that most of them are bunch of cengeng.

At this point in history, the Taliban would have regrouped in the mountains of Pakistan, Abu Omar of ISI would have regrouped in the desert if Anbar, Mao Zedong forced his battered army in a series of long March, Gaddafi would have had his coup takeover plan in hand etc etc

And people think that these kids...

has what it takes to run a country the size of China and not chicken out when options runs dry.

AIPAC Chinese cousin would love the kind of political landscape run by these morons.

 

[Lordimperator]

Aihh pingin muntah

"Tian an men is a blessing"
Sounds like 50 cents army

 

[schuimpjes]

One of the thing that cements my belief that liberal democracies won't survive anything and merely hang by the thin thread that is U.S power is the fact that most of them are bunch of cengeng.

At this point in history, the Taliban would have regrouped in the mountains of Pakistan, Abu Omar of ISI would have regrouped in the desert if Anbar, Mao Zedong forced his battered army in a series of long March, Gaddafi would have had his coup takeover plan in hand etc etc

And people think that these kids...

has what it takes to run a country the size of China and not chicken out when options runs dry.

AIPAC Chinese cousin would love the kind of political landscape run by these morons.

There are people more senior than them

Your mood like this, huh?

Format Factory Unser Staat Ist Siegreich : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Nasheed Unser Staat ist siegreich

archive.org

 

[Gary]

There are people more senior than them

Jimmy Lai? Lmao

Your mood like this, huh?

When you have the HK protesters as a showcase of liberal democracies in one hand and the likes of ISIS as a challenger of this system on the other hand, you would've realize the grave situation that the future awaits.

Everyone knows that the Hongkongers are a bunch of weaklings that will only survive in a political landscape of barely functioning third world country susceptible to pressure from foreigners (think Ukraine) . They chose instead to do this in China LOL. Where the U.S has no way to deter China from doing what it wants.

It took the CCP just a single knock and demosisto disbanded itself. Their leaders either gave up to arrests (Jimmy Lai and Joshua wong) , fled to Canada for 'study' (Agnes Chow), fled to London in exile (Nathan law) while their armies of younglings now spend their time in Shenzhen doing active struggle against cholesterol.

This is gotta be the gayest of gay struggle anywhere in recent memory.

 

[schuimpjes]

Jimmy Lai? Lmao

Hadeh terserah

When you have the HK protesters as a showcase of liberal democracies in one hand and the likes of ISIS as a challenger of this system on the other hand, you would've realize the grave situation that the future awaits.

At least tamkin of IS Central is no more now. They clearly become insignificant now, compared to few years back that there were something about them everyday on Twitter.

 

[Gary]

Hadeh terserah

At least tamkin of IS Central is no more now. They clearly become insignificant now, compared to few years back that there were something about them everyday on Twitter.

ISIS is just one challenger of the liberal order. There's Russia, there's China, the Taliban., North Korea, Mexican cartels etc.

The Taliban actually won though. Imagine spending trillions of dollars, an Almighty alliance of the entire West for 20 years in Afghanistan, only to replace the Taliban...with the Taliban.

The Hongkongers doesn't worth a toe nail when it comes to sacrifice to those I listed before. And people think they are the 'real deal' LMAO

 

[schuimpjes]

ISIS is just one challenger of the liberal order. There's Russia, there's China, the Taliban., North Korea, Mexican cartels etc.

It is easier to get rid of Islamists in hurry like IS and Al-Qaeda than against slow burning political Islamists like Muslim Brotherhood

 

[Gary]

It is easier to get rid of Islamists in hurry like IS and Al-Qaeda than against slow burning political Islamists like Muslim Brotherhood

Doesn't matter, Russians, Islamists, China, North Korea, Mexican cartels and basically most of the political thought outside of the Western liberal system are aware that the U.S is their only opposition to get what they want. Get rid of it, and you have free hand on everything.

Of course from all of this contra liberals, the U.S is well aware that Islam is their mortal enemy and constant long term threat, because Islam is the exact opposite of the West in every aspect that compels the U.S to spend more time trying to deal with it than let's say Mexican cartels next door.

It doesn't matter though. The U.S has its own limits and even if they wanted to they simply couldn't have their hands on everything.

If the U.S at the peak of their power (1990s-2000s) couldn't achieve their goal of recreating political Islam to their liking, there's actually less chance for them to succeed this time while having to deal with peer state like China/Russia. Islamist (shia and Sunni alike) are aware of this.

And then there's the Hamas raid and the subsequent Gaza war that snowballed into a domestic struggle in the states. That will COMPEL the U.S to put more resources inward. It couldn't be worse for the AIPAC guys running the U.S Foreign Policy.

2 days ago, The Economist wrote this. Which is just a repetition of what I've writing here for quite some time.

The liberal international order is slowly coming apart

Its collapse could be sudden and irreversible

www.economist.com

They know everything is falling apart, they're likely trying to stop it, but to no avail.

If you look at the Saudis gambling on normalization, followed by UAE and Saudis softening on Iran, it's basically a signal. Both MBS and MBZ knows from closed doors that the American order is fading away and the happy 2000s is fast receding. On their front door there's basically 2 options going forward:

1. Getting swallowed by Iran and their minions.
2. getting wiped by popular unrest that will eventually be taken over by Sunni Islamist like in Syria.

Anyways both ways not good prospect for them.

 

[Lordimperator]

Doesn't matter, Russians, Islamists, China, North Korea, Mexican cartels and basically most of the political thought outside of the Western liberal system are aware that the U.S is their only opposition to get what they want. Get rid of it, and you have free hand on everything.

Just because Western liberal is suck on their spineless act at Gaza invasion and rainbow movements, you dont have to idol those savages like Chicomm, Kim dictatorships which imprisoned their own people or even IS .

 

[NEKO]

 

[schuimpjes]

The U.S has its own limits and even if they wanted to they simply couldn't have their hands on everything.

Overstretched? No, 2 pronged conflicts is nothing new. “But the scale now is bigger and requires more money”, nothing new. Middle East problem of Hamas would end near time however it is.

What fascinates me is how bleeding heart leftists (not liberals) and Islamists could join force lol. I admit Sakharovsky and Andropov Operational Preparations of the Environment/preconditioning of Israeli-Palestinian conflict during the Cold War was through the roof.

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789673969563607502

No Hanhwa Ocean insight...
No more Changbogos?

 

[Gary]

Overstretched? No, 2 pronged conflicts is nothing new. “But the scale now is bigger and requires more money”, nothing new.

I could remember in 2016 DefenseOne publish the story about how CENTCOM is scrambling all over the world for bombs to keep up pressure against the Islamic State. And this is just one 'state' with no foreign backers, relying on captured weapons and the U.S at the time could count on its soft power to keep China and Russia in check and not do anything that would compel the U.S to be careful with its stockpile.

The US is Raiding its Global Bomb Stockpiles to Fight ISIS

The anti-ISIS coalition has dropped more than 41,500 bombs, leading the Pentagon to borrow from stockpiles in other regions.

www.defenseone.com

Next time,I don't think they'll not be so lucky. The war in Ukraine is sucking up their ability to stock ordnance (because they keep sending them to Ukraine), now add industrial juggernaut China into the list of potential wars and I could understand why MBS and MBZ felt vulnerable.

Please remember that Western modeled Middle Eastern armies when faced with significant opposition always ended up the same. And it's always the US who finally came to save their Arab asses. The monarchs of Doha, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi knows that for the first time in quite a long time, their money couldn't solve their problem which is that of their ineffective army.

Iraq 2014

Yemen 2015

Middle East problem of Hamas would end near time however it is.

Hmm no, Hamas is still there and if Hamas is defeated, and Israel's plan to move Palestinians to Sinai move forward. One group will be particularly happy

Islamic State – Sinai Province - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That's like a fuck ton of fighting age men going to ISIS jaw. And we all know ISIS is the most hard to crack groups out there, capable of surviving even under circumstances that other groups otherwise fail.

Just last March, which is like a month and a half ago, ISIS (likely taking advantage of US pre-occupation with Gaza and Ukraine) score their largest tally in Syria since the fall of the physical caliphate in 2019.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775559369880703258

That Polish Pawel guy noted this

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784120478874866052

What fascinates me is how bleeding heart leftists (not liberals) and Islamists could join force lol. I admit Sakharovsky and Andropov Operational Preparations of the Environment/preconditioning of Israeli-Palestinian conflict during the Cold War was through the roof.

Islamists themselves are many, there are pragmatist Islamist or hardcore Islamists, they're going separate ways but they're still both a problem that the US are compelled to tackle, just this time, without the easy mode of being able to put all of their focus on one chunk of the planet.

This is not to say Islamist are natural allies to lefties, but at this point they have likely secretly nodded that they have the same goal of eroding the U.S ability to 'govern' the globe and will do their part to undermine it.

 

[schuimpjes]

Next time,I don't think they'll not be so lucky.

Just see then. Btw, US just released Presidential Drawdown list few days ago to Ukraine you must know it too, not new actually, but official list is new. Drawdown doesn’t need Congress approval, with quota or cap of only few hundred million dollars every year, not more, whatever it is, Ukraine need it fast. You must know that Russian ramping up their effort again recently. But still, your master Putin couldn’t took Chasiv Yar on 9th May lol.

Even though like that, Ukraine still di ujung tanduk now, I’m not gonna be over confident they gonna defend smaller villages, their manpower getting thinner means longer shift for the rotation because of less personnel, this equal to more fatigue and less productivity while Russian manpower keep coming new and fresh, the advantage of having more population. Attrition warfare, drone everywhere and artillery become the main weapons, with roughly 90% Ukrainian casualties near Chasiv Yar from drone attacks during the attrition phase. Modern warfare make your threats not only in front of you, but also agile things above you and you know how worthless the gun you holding against that and just run for hiding. Intense.

Edit:
Btw, new legislation made the cap for Drawdown to billions not millions of dollars anymore.

 

[Gary]

Just see then. Btw, US just released Presidential Drawdown list few days ago to Ukraine you must know it too, not new actually, but official list is new. Drawdown doesn’t need Congress approval, with quota or cap of only few hundred million dollars every year, not more, whatever it is, Ukraine need it fast. You must know that Russian ramping up their effort again recently. But still, your master Putin couldn’t took Chasiv Yar on 9th May lol.

The ones that came up with Russia going for Chasiv Yar on May 9th is Ukraine's. Russians themselves never talked about this.

Anyway, Russia going for Kharkiv out of the blue is classic move of military deception, make them think you'll go for something (Chasiv Yar), instead invade the other (Kharkiv) where Ukrainians were caught with their pants down.

Syrski and to a certain extent, Zelensky should read more about deception. Maybe next time they'll avoid movie like trailers for an upcoming offensive.

Even though like that, Ukraine still di ujung tanduk now, I’m not gonna be over confident they gonna defend smaller villages, their manpower getting thinner means longer shift for the rotation because of less personnel, this equal to more fatigue and less productivity while Russian manpower keep coming new and fresh, the advantage of having more population. Attrition warfare, drone everywhere and artillery become the main weapons, with roughly 90% Ukrainian casualties near Chasiv Yar from drone attacks during the attrition phase. Modern warfare make your threats not only in front of you, but also agile things above you and you know how worthless the gun you holding against that and just run for hiding. Intense.

Moving forward, Ukraine is going to war with a population that is not interested in war. The daily footage of Ukrainian man getting dragged into vans confirm this.

Some example what little will to fight could result into =

1. smaller manpower, a lot less ammo and no will to fight

2. A lot larger manpower, a lot more ammo and no will to fight

 

[schuimpjes]

Anyway, Russia going for Kharkiv out of the blue is classic move of military deception, make them think you'll go for something (Chasiv Yar), instead invade the other (Kharkiv) where Ukrainians were caught with their pants down.

Russian came in with armored troops, that kind of assault need bigger weapons to stop. But not in the city of Kharkiv yet, not even the vicinity. So East and North Ukraine now, South must be on high alert.

I don’t know if Russian side Belgorod north of Kharkiv would be MACV SOGed by GUR unconventional warfare (backed) forces to disrupt the logistics and to busy Russian with insurgency within their own border or not. Supply deliveries with GUR’s old UH-60A when?

Moving forward, Ukraine is going to war with a population that is not interested in war.

They started to talk about not giving any consular service to military age male Ukrainian abroad. I don’t know would Ukrainian asking for help to the host countries to do something about it, if yes, say goodbye to Bali lol.

 

[Gary]

Russian came in with armored troops, that kind of assault need bigger weapons to stop. But not in the city of Kharkiv yet, not even the vicinity. So East and North Ukraine now, South must be on high alert.

I don’t know if Russian side Belgorod north of Kharkiv would be MACV SOGed by GUR unconventional warfare (backed) forces to disrupt the logistics and to busy Russian with insurgency within their own border or not. Supply deliveries with GUR’s old UH-60A when?

There's Kharkiv the city and there's Kharkiv the oblast.

Russia's land grabbing in Kharkiv oblast make sense though, by threatening settlements as important as Kharkiv, the Russians compels the Ukrainians to pull troops out of the Donbas, making it easier for Russian troops currently storming their way towards Pokrovsk.

Another offensive towards Sumy/Kyiv would automatically forced AFU command to draw even more troops out of Donbas. Once Donbass is secured, Russia could either opt slow methodical encircelemnet of Kharkiv, or attempt another capture of Kherson.

They started to talk about not giving any consular service to military age male Ukrainian abroad. I don’t know would Ukrainian asking for help to the host countries to do something about it, if yes, say goodbye to Bali lol.

Russia could rely on their ally Hungary to make sure Ukrainians prefer to stay abroad.

Hungary will not extradite military-age Ukrainian men

Budapest will not hand over male Ukrainian refugees who are liable for military service to Kyiv, Hungarian Deputy Prime Minister Zsolt Semjén has said.

www.eurointegration.com.ua

 

[schuimpjes]

There's Kharkiv the city and there's Kharkiv the oblast.

Russia's land grabbing in Kharkiv oblast make sense though, by threatening settlements as important as Kharkiv, the Russians compels the Ukrainians to pull troops out of the Donbas, making it easier for Russian troops currently storming their way towards Pokrovsk.

Another offensive towards Sumy/Kyiv would automatically forced AFU command to draw even more troops out of Donbas. Once Donbass is secured, Russia could either opt slow methodical encircelemnet of Kharkiv, or attempt another capture of Kherson.

I rather wait than sure that this Kharkiv assault as diversion to make forces in the East goes North. The forces just under different Operational Command (East and North), but doesn’t mean the forces can’t be transferred to another command tho.

Russia could rely on their ally Hungary to make sure Ukrainians prefer to stay abroad.

Ah yes, Hungary. Where Chinese and Russian influence are rampant to the government officials.

Look what this NGO put to Hungary lol they have sense of humor

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

 

[Gary]

I rather wait than sure that this Kharkiv assault as diversion to make forces in the East goes North. The forces just under different Operational Command (East and North), but doesn’t mean the forces can’t be transferred to another command tho.

doesn't matter, if Ukraine takes the bait, Donbas offensive will be a lot easier, if they don't, Russia will creep towards Kharkiv even closer.

Ah yes, Hungary. Where Chinese and Russian influence are rampant to the government officials.

Look what this NGO put to Hungary lol they have sense of humor

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

Still a lot better than AIPAC

 

[schuimpjes]

doesn't matter, if Ukraine takes the bait, Donbas offensive will be a lot easier

Unconfirmed.

Battle hardened Kraken in Kharkiv (North) from Chasiv Yar (East). Who knows it just portions of them or all. Kraken is under GUR, more flexible to move them around, they not permanently attached to any Operational Command.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789968457078857851