Weaponry Spending Spree

Madokafc

Experienced member
Think Tank Analyst
DefenceHub Diplomat
Messages
5,913
Reactions
4 10,053
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia

Weaponry Spending Spree​


12 November 2020 18:19 WIB

922707_720.jpg



TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - IT is ironic: at a time when state funds are needed to battle the pandemic, the Indonesian Ministry of defense is spending more and more on the procurement of weapons. Claiming the need to modernize weapons systems to safeguard the sovereignty of the nation, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is seeking weapons systems in Europe and the United States. According to the Central Statistics Agency, imports of weaponry and ammunition in the first quarter of 2020 were 606 percent higher than the same period last year.


Although it decreased in 2018, the budget for defense and procurement of weapons in the era of Minister Prabowo has continued to rise, and now has the second-largest ministerial allocation in the state budget. Next year, the defense budget, which is largely funded from foreign debt, will increase by around Rp20 trillion. Whilst, spending on health next year will be cut by 20 percent, and allocation for the cooperatives and medium and small businesses ministry, which plays a significant role in economic recovery during the pandemic, will only be 0.7 percent of the defense budget.
Prabowo plans to purchase 15 secondhand Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets from the Austrian Air Force. Although their effectiveness has been questioned, these aircraft will replace the Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft purchased by the previous defense minister. These changes show that decisions about the procurement of equipment are not based on long term considerations. There is the impression that a new minister means new contracts for different weapons.
The purchase of weapons to defend the sovereignty of a nation is an old song that is played every time the ministry of defense proposes an increase in its budget. However, there have been limited explanations about why these procurements are so urgent or about the magnitude of the threat to our sovereignty such that it needs to be protected by additional fighter jets. It is time the government realized that Indonesia's sovereignty is not threatened by external forces, but rather by government policies that ignore people's rights, for example in Papua.

Seemingly of the same mind as the ministry, the House of Representatives as the stakeholder in determining the budget has not criticized the request from the ministry of defense. Moreover, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani, who usually protests about spending that makes no sense, has also remained silent.
It has long been considered by experts that an increase in the defense budget is not simply a reflection of one country wanting to show off its power to others but also is a demonstration of a nation's direction to democracy. A study carried out by the University of London on defense spending in 112 nations from 1960 to 2000 showed that countries with a commitment to democracy spend a smaller percentage of their GDP on military spending. Conversely, authoritarian nations allocate more funds.
ADVERTISEMENT


Prabowo’s secretive stance on the spending on weaponry weakens the public control of Indonesian military spending. The claim of the need for secrecy in the interests of national security is in practice used as a reason to allow for misuses of defense spending. In the last 10 years, there has been a number of corruption cases involving the procurement of equipment. For example, from 2010 to 2014, corruption over the purchase of F-16 fighter jets and Apache helicopters was discovered. There were also indications of bribery in the 2016 purchase of August-Westland 101 helicopters.
President Joko Widodo should not allow this increase in defense spending to go ahead unless he wants to signal agreement with the frequently expressed opinion that Indonesia is moving from a democratic nation towards an autocracy.


This is how SJW outlet trying to giving a false narative on how a country should acts and do. By quoting from the rising of import statistic and not to see from the whole picture one can give a false narative on how thing is work. Indonesian defense spending is remain low and at the lowest level ever with the budget set at 136,9 trillion rupiah from around 2770 trillion rupiah state budget look at this. That's only around 5 percentage of 2021 budget


And when one doing such article they actually should do their homework properly, Indonesia had giving post covid treatment and business incentive as utmost priority with more to be spend on social securities and infrastructure development. That's unprecedented even in Indonesia history.

By giving Papua narative at weapon spending in which actually had nothing much to do they actually had fallen to separatist agenda and not looking into the whole issues. As Indonesia government had long been giving Police as the spearhead to resolve Papua issues and only giving TNI as backup roles, one can't see on how much TNI and Police officers who died at the terrorist hand in Papua and rarely giving voice for the terrorist action there.

This article is not good at all and only being served for masturbation pieces for SJW wannabe
 

Madokafc

Experienced member
Think Tank Analyst
DefenceHub Diplomat
Messages
5,913
Reactions
4 10,053
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Even they quoted how military spending corelated with democracy, as they don't see how USA spending around 15 percentage of their budget for defense and more when you looking at whole number (veteran fund and home defense aka National guard), the rest of the list of Ten biggest spender on defense is full of democracy countries like Japan, South Korea, UK, France , Australia and India and they are spend more on defense related with their whole state budget compared (8 to 18 percentage) to Indonesia which is very low and modest at 5 to six percentage of their state budget. This is all about the overdue of Indonesia to start modernized their
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
duhhh, did any of it materialize??
  1. Iver
  2. additional leopards??
  3. Osprey??
  4. 30FFM??
  5. F-16V??
  6. SU-35???
 

Madokafc

Experienced member
Think Tank Analyst
DefenceHub Diplomat
Messages
5,913
Reactions
4 10,053
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
duhhh, did any of it materialize??
  1. Iver
  2. additional leopards??
  3. Osprey??
  4. 30FFM??
  5. F-16V??
  6. SU-35???

That's why such article is rubbish not even we got decent additional of hardware badly needed by our Armed Forces, they even asking to decrease it
 

Gundala

Well-known member
Messages
415
Reactions
1 506
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
Spending more on defence amid covid? How about knowing other nation from the North tyring to take advantage amid covid in the region by pushing her agenda right into our own front yard?

Limited explanation on why we need to increase our military spending? To me its more like limited understanding on why we have to do so. Most of the National threat, specially the most dangerous one wont be open to the public. There are good reasons for it as it will take many angle to view it on, many discipline to chew the informations which not many people or group dont have the capacity to begin with. It may lead to misconception, misunderstanding and erupt unnecessary domestic instability.
 

trishna_amrta

Experienced member
Messages
1,606
Reactions
1,925
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
specially the most dangerous one wont be open to the public. There are good reasons for it as it will take many angle to view it on, many discipline to chew the informations which not many people or group dont have the capacity to begin with. It may lead to misconception, misunderstanding and erupt unnecessary domestic instability.
if only you realize how vulnerable our utility and our financial infrastructure against cyberattack. Its make the whole things on Natuna sea look like a joke
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,632
Reactions
37 19,741
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey
As I understand it from some of the articles posted by @Indos and @#comcom and few others. Indonesia has internal threats that needs to be dealt with, add to that the increasing Chinese activity and expansionism, you have a coctail that seems to scream for increased arms spending.

But you can't possibly do that by also opening up for Chinese investments as you're pretty much stuck between two different kind of poisons. Then you have the US, which really isn't going to invest in your country, but use you as a pawn, and the more you can be kept struggling the better it is for the US and China.

Because a solid strong Indonesia would not bend to either. I think seeking alliances in the region is the best solution, but you also need to diversify your suppliers.

Too many countries are beginning to develop everything inhouse because they do not want to be reliant on external delivery, but that is very costly.

Truth be told if Indonesia could without fail always rely of Turkish (and some others) delivery to cost price even joint production then you would always have delivery from one external supplier to support your own production.

Remember at cost means you still make money, and agreeing to optimize and reducing cost prices would be even better.

Let's say MT Kaplan developed with PT Pindad and FNSS costs 5 mio usd. if the price can be reduced to 3,5 mio usd, then that would be awesome in itself.

My point is you have an immediate need and off the shell buying is the most expensive. Having deeper cooperation with some countries might yield better results in determining optimal solutions.

@anmdt has already lined up some criterias for better internal cooperation in the field of R&D, but your current need won't be addressed that way.
 
A

adenl

Guest
As I understand it from some of the articles posted by @Indos and @#comcom and few others. Indonesia has internal threats that needs to be dealt with, add to that the increasing Chinese activity and expansionism, you have a coctail that seems to scream for increased arms spending.

But you can't possibly do that by also opening up for Chinese investments as you're pretty much stuck between two different kind of poisons. Then you have the US, which really isn't going to invest in your country, but use you as a pawn, and the more you can be kept struggling the better it is for the US and China.

Because a solid strong Indonesia would not bend to either. I think seeking alliances in the region is the best solution, but you also need to diversify your suppliers.

Too many countries are beginning to develop everything inhouse because they do not want to be reliant on external delivery, but that is very costly.

Truth be told if Indonesia could without fail always rely of Turkish (and some others) delivery to cost price even joint production then you would always have delivery from one external supplier to support your own production.

Remember at cost means you still make money, and agreeing to optimize and reducing cost prices would be even better.

Let's say MT Kaplan developed with PT Pindad and FNSS costs 5 mio usd. if the price can be reduced to 3,5 mio usd, then that would be awesome in itself.

My point is you have an immediate need and off the shell buying is the most expensive. Having deeper cooperation with some countries might yield better results in determining optimal solutions.

@anmdt has already lined up some criterias for better internal cooperation in the field of R&D, but your current need won't be addressed that way.
If they started serious cooperation with Turkish defense industry in 2010, they would be receiving some very sophisticated weaponry from 2015 onwards (Atak, UAV's, artillery, missiles, subs, amphibious vehicles) and would satisfy almost all their needs by 2025 from this Turkish-Indo cooperation. And with the KF-X starting delivery from 2026 on, they would be ready and set within 5 years from now and would've no need from the Chinese nor the US in matters of defense.

Prospects for Turkey and Indonesia were very promising in 2010 and their large distance made sure there would be no conflict of interest between them for such a close dense cooperation to come to fruition. The Indonesians have sure shot themselves in the foot by not seizing such an opportunity and is depended on an irrational spending spree.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Indos

Contributor
Think Tank Analyst
Messages
1,219
Reactions
1,537
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
As I understand it from some of the articles posted by @Indos and @#comcom and few others. Indonesia has internal threats that needs to be dealt with, add to that the increasing Chinese activity and expansionism, you have a coctail that seems to scream for increased arms spending.

But you can't possibly do that by also opening up for Chinese investments as you're pretty much stuck between two different kind of poisons. Then you have the US, which really isn't going to invest in your country, but use you as a pawn, and the more you can be kept struggling the better it is for the US and China.

Because a solid strong Indonesia would not bend to either. I think seeking alliances in the region is the best solution, but you also need to diversify your suppliers.

Too many countries are beginning to develop everything inhouse because they do not want to be reliant on external delivery, but that is very costly.

Truth be told if Indonesia could without fail always rely of Turkish (and some others) delivery to cost price even joint production then you would always have delivery from one external supplier to support your own production.

Remember at cost means you still make money, and agreeing to optimize and reducing cost prices would be even better.

Let's say MT Kaplan developed with PT Pindad and FNSS costs 5 mio usd. if the price can be reduced to 3,5 mio usd, then that would be awesome in itself.

My point is you have an immediate need and off the shell buying is the most expensive. Having deeper cooperation with some countries might yield better results in determining optimal solutions.

@anmdt has already lined up some criterias for better internal cooperation in the field of R&D, but your current need won't be addressed that way.

I still think we dont have immediate serious threat for the next 15 years since US will still be in SCS and ready to challenge China together with its NATO friends if some thing serious happen during that period, this will be an opportunity for US to create conflict with China as China hasnt yet too strong, but after 15 years from now as China grows much stronger US will likely not to intervene.

So Indonesia has 15 years to focus on economy and local defense industry so that if that time comes, we should be able to make China think 30 times before they start acting aggressively on us. If we are strong enough, China will likely to seek friendship with Indonesia and let go their nine dash line ambition that enroach Indonesia EEZ while they could still bully the rest nations (Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Philippine).

In order to withstand China power at 2035 above, we should have enough defense spending that is supported by strong defense industry. Acting like Middle East countries with their defense spending that is mostly used for imported weapons is not our option since we are going to withstand the next superpower, not just Iran.

It doesnt mean we will beat China if conflict arise, but just force them to think 30 times if they get bad intention on us. Making a hug chunk of our defense spending for our own local industry can make our potential big spending beyond 2030 when we are projected to have at least 2 trillion USD nominal GDP as sustainable enough economically.
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,632
Reactions
37 19,741
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey
I still think we dont have immediate serious threat for the next 15 years since US will still be in SCS and ready to challenge China together with its NATO friends if some thing serious happen during that period, this will be an opportunity for US to create conflict with China as China hasnt yet too strong, but after 15 years from now as China grows much stronger US will likely not to intervene.

So Indonesia has 15 years to focus on economy and local defense industry so that if that time comes, we should be able to make China think 30 times before they start acting aggressively on us. If we are strong enough, China will likely to seek friendship with Indonesia and let go their nine dash line ambition that enroach Indonesia EEZ while they could still bully the rest nations (Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Philippine).

In order to withstand China power at 2035 above, we should have enough defense spending that is supported by strong defense industry. Acting like Middle East countries with their defense spending that is mostly used for imported weapons is not our option since we are going to withstand the next superpower, not just Iran.

It doesnt mean we will beat China if conflict arise, but just force them to think 30 times if they get bad intention on us. Making a hug chunk of our defense spending for our own local industry can make our potential big spending beyond 2030 when we are projected to have at least 2 trillion USD nominal GDP as sustainable enough economically.
While I understand your stance. I have to point out that China and their doctrin isn't (imo) centered around any direct clashes, as that would imo still be to their advantage as you'll notice that every small fishing vessel is pretty much PLAN or such (There are several articles about this).

It's more into muscling and bullying their way into the region they want. My take is that the best way to counter this is network of defence cooperation and supporting countries that have interest in the areas.

Philippines is a country that has a verdict in their favour in Arbitration, but who's is supporting or backing up Philippines in their claim. If everyone thinks "me first" then it will be too late to act because China will have muscled its way deep into the territory, like the militarization atm.

Your take is that 15 years is enough for Indonesia to grow strong enough to not need US against China because your economy will grow big until that time and thus your armed forces should be strong enough too.

But IMO that is a wrong way of seeing things. You're first line of defense should not start inside your EEZ, but should start from Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and such.

Also I don't think the US is going to be a shield for you while you comfortable build up your armed forces and such, that is not how the world works. An Indonesia in the throws of chaos and mired in troubles is much easier to control than alternatively, so expect things not going as you wish.

Let's say you have 3 years, what will you do ?
 

Indos

Contributor
Think Tank Analyst
Messages
1,219
Reactions
1,537
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
If they started serious cooperation with Turkish defense industry in 2010, they would be receiving some very sophisticated weaponry from 2015 onwards (Atak, UAV's, artillery, missiles, subs, amphibious vehicles) and would satisfy almost all their needs by 2025 from this Turkish-Indo cooperation. And with the KF-X starting delivery from 2026 on, they would be ready and set within 5 years from now and would've no need from the Chinese nor the US in matters of defense.

Prospects for Turkey and Indonesia were very promising in 2010 and their large distance made sure there would be no conflict of interest between them for such a close dense cooperation to come to fruition. The Indonesians have sure shot themselves in the foot by not seizing such an opportunity and is depended on an irrational spending spree.

I think Indonesia is still rational, Prabowo might be irrational, but Jokowi is still very rational. For 2020-2024 period, the cooperation with Turkey will be in amphibious IFV between Pindad and FNSS and also possible Turkish missile for Black Eagle UAV.

More cooperation could likely happen after 2024 as the new administration comes. This is also the time where Indonesia local defense industry is likley to be strong enough financially and technologically to make more ambitious cooperation with Turkey. State owned defense holding that is currently being worked will likely become solid organizationally at that time. I also think new administration that will likely be lead by younger generation leaders who are raised by upper middle class family will likely to have more ambitious target about future Indonesia. Much bigger R&D spending I think will be quite possible.

The opportunity is still there for much cooperation in 2024-2034. I dont think China will wage war any way over fishing right dispute with Indonesia in our EEZ. They are clever and patience bunch and even still forgive Myanmar after Myanmar bombed Chinese village near their border. They need ally to face USA.
 

trishna_amrta

Experienced member
Messages
1,606
Reactions
1,925
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
It's more into muscling and bullying their way into the region they want. My take is that the best way to counter this is network of defence cooperation and supporting countries that have interest in the areas.

Philippines is a country that has a verdict in their favour in Arbitration, but who's is supporting or backing up Philippines in their claim. If everyone thinks "me first" then it will be too late to act because China will have muscled its way deep into the territory, like the militarization atm.
I believe I could provide more insight into this. ASEAN start as what on the surface as economic block, but it is not. The block was formed on the premise of preventing zero-sum games among the original members states and to prevent & contained communism. And the best way to prevent zero-sum is by fostering mutual trust trough trade / commerce and people to people connectivity. Unfortunately the region has always been politically, ethnically, linguistically, culturally, and religiously diverse as long as written history goes. Furthermore, a long history (as in thousand years) of random war fighting among the members states doesn't help much.

Now fast-forward to present days. Countries such as Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are for all-purpose & intent is China client state. While countries such as the Philippines is leaning (pro) toward China as well despite their treaty with US. I'm not sure as to where Vietnam, Thailand stand, but Malaysia is already deep in China debt trap, while Brunei is just too small to make any difference whatsoever.

Also I don't think the US is going to be a shield for you while you comfortable build up your armed forces and such, that is not how the world works. An Indonesia in the throws of chaos and mired in troubles is much easier to control than alternatively, so expect things not going as you wish.
Actually US doctrine has always to let their ally / partner to take the brunt while they're mobilizing the bulk of their force (case example WW2 & Korean War) In this case Indonesia and (maybe) Australia will need to take the brunt of the initial fighting

Let's say you have 3 years, what will you do ?
3 years is too long. Make that 2 years top.

Personally I will do what within my personal means, which is to prep for such eventually. Food & drinking water I've already managed. However, tertiary dwelling, power, fuel, sanitary water, and digital communication are legging far behind.
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,632
Reactions
37 19,741
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey
The opportunity is still there for much cooperation in 2024-2034. I dont think China will wage war any way over fishing right dispute with Indonesia in our EEZ. They are clever and patience bunch and even still forgive Myanmar after Myanmar bombed Chinese village near their border. They need ally to face USA.
Aren't we belittling the fishing rights issue ? If there are islets near the EEZ border (SCS) I can guarentee you that China will build another island for military expansionism. IMO it's a brilliant ploy even if costly because you'll have military, and naval outpost out where sea trade sails through, and you have control over whoever wants to sail there. I know I would if I had the trade balance in my favour as a country.

I believe I could provide more insight into this. ASEAN start as what on the surface as economic block, but it is not. The block was formed on the premise of preventing zero-sum games among the original members states and to prevent & contained communism. And the best way to prevent zero-sum is by fostering mutual trust trough trade / commerce and people to people connectivity. Unfortunately the region has always been politically, ethnically, linguistically, culturally, and religiously diverse as long as written history goes. Furthermore, a long history (as in thousand years) of random war fighting among the members states doesn't help much.

Now fast-forward to present days. Countries such as Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are for all-purpose & intent is China client state. While countries such as the Philippines is leaning (pro) toward China as well despite their treaty with US. I'm not sure as to where Vietnam, Thailand stand, but Malaysia is already deep in China debt trap, while Brunei is just too small to make any difference whatsoever.


Actually US doctrine has always to let their ally / partner to take the brunt while they're mobilizing the bulk of their force (case example WW2 & Korean War) In this case Indonesia and (maybe) Australia will need to take the brunt of the initial fighting


3 years is too long. Make that 2 years top.

Personally I will do what within my personal means, which is to prep for such eventually. Food & drinking water I've already managed. However, tertiary dwelling, power, fuel, sanitary water, and digital communication are legging far behind.
Thank you. I was aware of China's reach to some of these lands, and that is why I kinda mention Philippines specifically as Duterte is aware of their need for USAF. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...-the-hague-ruling-against-china-in-un-address

I was thinking that Indonesia could support Philippines even if only 1 mio usd on their outposts etc in spratly island and such. Anything to help Philippines strengthen their hold and solidfy it.
 
Last edited:

trishna_amrta

Experienced member
Messages
1,606
Reactions
1,925
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
I was thinking that Indonesia could support Philippines even if only 1 mio usd on their outposts etc in spratly island and such. Anything to help Philippines strengthen their hold and solidfy it.
The main problem with the Philippines is their lack of political will to stand on their own. Instead, they are hoping for the US to bail them out at the first instance and somehow forgetting that during WW2 the US was retreating from the Philippines to consolidate their own force. So far the US has been supplying (granting) the Philippines more military aid than any countries could ever manage. And yet Duterte administration still remain embracing China in practice. Sadly certain region in Indonesia has also embracing China influence regardless the national gov't and the rest of the country stand
 

Kafkaesque

Active member
Messages
26
Reactions
20
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Aren't we belittling the fishing rights issue ? If there are islets near the EEZ border (SCS) I can guarentee you that China will build another island for military expansionism. IMO it's a brilliant ploy even if costly because you'll have military, and naval outpost out where sea trade sails through, and you have control over whoever wants to sail there. I know I would if I had the trade balance in my favour as a country.

I only quoted this post, but I'd like to respond to a few points on the other posts.

We don't really have a problem internally. I mean, yes, there is Covid-19, there are intolerance / terrorism issues every now and then, and even now there is a problem with a certain organization, but I believe the government is firmly on control. The last time we had a really big internal problem was around 2 years ago (before and right after Presidential election), but now that the government "reconcile" with the (now ex) opposition, they have a very solid control on internal issues.

The sea around Natuna may be rich, but it is nothing compare to our trade with China, or their investment in Indonesia. Yes, they could build artificial islands, but then everybody will know that is a plain robbery and that will cost them all trades, mining rights, smelters etc - worth tens of billion of dollars of yearly profit. I am sure they are smart enough to do the math.

Other than that, it will be a very foolish move of them if they go to war with Indonesia, while Taiwan, Japan, Korea and Vietnam, all of them literally have direct borders with China, with political status at best as frenemies, are still "unsolved". Unless there is a very, very good reason, if China suddenly invade us, these countries will invade China as a preemptive measure. If China is crazy enough to go a long way and attack Indonesia, it means they are next. Of course, the most likely to happen is China attack them first before attacking Indonesia. So if they are still at peace, or they don't make a very good pact with China, then I wouldn't be wary China's attack on Indonesia.

We have to be ready, for China also for the US, India, Russia.. for anyone, true. But as of now and a few more years we don't have a real, direct (security) threat. In 10, 15 or 20 years, maybe, but as things stands now, not in the near future.

EDIT:

There is something that was "missed" during the last China's fishing vessels "attack" on the sea around Natuna. Indonesia's MoD (Prabowo) was just visiting China and met with China's MoD, and at least according to the local news, he was "warmly received". Right after he went home, China's fishing vessels "attacked" and then some people said "we need more weapons!" (we really do BTW).

Dec 16th 2019 (sorry, in Indonesian):


Jan 1st 2020:

 
Last edited:

Madokafc

Experienced member
Think Tank Analyst
DefenceHub Diplomat
Messages
5,913
Reactions
4 10,053
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
I only quoted this post, but I'd like to respond to a few points on the other posts.

We don't really have a problem internally. I mean, yes, there is Covid-19, there are intolerance / terrorism issues every now and then, and even now there is a problem with a certain organization, but I believe the government is firmly on control. The last time we had a really big internal problem was around 2 years ago (before and right after Presidential election), but now that the government "reconcile" with the (now ex) opposition, they have a very solid control on internal issues.

The sea around Natuna may be rich, but it is nothing compare to our trade with China, or their investment in Indonesia. Yes, they could build artificial islands, but then everybody will know that is a plain robbery and that will cost them all trades, mining rights, smelters etc - worth tens of billion of dollars of yearly profit. I am sure they are smart enough to do the math.

Other than that, it will be a very foolish move of them if they go to war with Indonesia, while Taiwan, Japan, Korea and Vietnam, all of them literally have direct borders with China, with political status at best as frenemies, are still "unsolved". Unless there is a very, very good reason, if China suddenly invade us, these countries will invade China as a preemptive measure. If China is crazy enough to go a long way and attack Indonesia, it means they are next. Of course, the most likely to happen is China attack them first before attacking Indonesia. So if they are still at peace, or they don't make a very good pact with China, then I wouldn't be wary China's attack on Indonesia.

We have to be ready, for China also for the US, India, Russia.. for anyone, true. But as of now and a few more years we don't have a real, direct (security) threat. In 10, 15 or 20 years, maybe, but as things stands now, not in the near future.

EDIT:

There is something that was "missed" during the last China's fishing vessels "attack" on the sea around Natuna. Indonesia's MoD (Prabowo) was just visiting China and met with China's MoD, and at least according to the local news, he was "warmly received". Right after he went home, China's fishing vessels "attacked" and then some people said "we need more weapons!" (we really do BTW).

Dec 16th 2019 (sorry, in Indonesian):


Jan 1st 2020:


The negotiation is going off and FUBAR, the content likely will be classified though. And there is almost open secret Indonesia diplomatically and militarily is likely going more leaned toward the West but not much toward meddlesome US but more with her allies in Europe and Asia. But alas our relationship with US still warm and quite cordial but not into the level of close relationship like Australia, Japan, South Korea and other US close Ally.
 

Kafkaesque

Active member
Messages
26
Reactions
20
Nation of residence
Indonesia
The negotiation is going off and FUBAR, the content likely will be classified though.

You mean Prabowo visit to China? That is IMO 1 between 2 possible explanation (the other being they were in cahoots (in term of it was actually Indonesia's request to give a reason for weapon spending).

And there is almost open secret Indonesia diplomatically and militarily is likely going more leaned toward the West but not much toward meddlesome US but more with her allies in Europe and Asia. But alas our relationship with US still warm and quite cordial but not into the level of close relationship like Australia, Japan, South Korea and other US close Ally.

We will never be as close as they are, at least not now. The "anglo sphere" have common roots and moral values, which some of them are even the opposite of ours. As for Japan and Korea, they owe their current prosperity to the US, if US and her allies decided to close their market, it is pretty much game over for them (Japan and Korea). We on the other hand, are big enough to have an "economy" of our own, just like what we are doing right now. We are still trading with China, US and others, but it is a small-ish part in our economy.

In a way, it is good for our pride *cough*, we can stand up to US or any other country as we don't really need them to survive (China or US can invade and win, but it'll be pyrrhic victory and permanent occupation is nearly impossible), but as you know, it also has its own problems.
 

Madokafc

Experienced member
Think Tank Analyst
DefenceHub Diplomat
Messages
5,913
Reactions
4 10,053
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
You mean Prabowo visit to China? That is IMO 1 between 2 possible explanation (the other being they were in cahoots (in term of it was actually Indonesia's request to give a reason for weapon spending).



We will never be as close as they are, at least not now. The "anglo sphere" have common roots and moral values, which some of them are even the opposite of ours. As for Japan and Korea, they owe their current prosperity to the US, if US and her allies decided to close their market, it is pretty much game over for them (Japan and Korea). We on the other hand, are big enough to have an "economy" of our own, just like what we are doing right now. We are still trading with China, US and others, but it is a small-ish part in our economy.

In a way, it is good for our pride *cough*, we can stand up to US or any other country as we don't really need them to survive (China or US can invade and win, but it'll be pyrrhic victory and permanent occupation is nearly impossible), but as you know, it also has its own problems.

For what? Look after Prabowo visit, not only China Made blatant disregard toward our Sovereign over North Natuna Sea, but not long after there is Covid19 case in which had happened in Wuhan!!! And now amid pandemic China keep increased their presence in South China Sea and using vacsine they are developing (in which i am quite suspicious on how they are able to complete Vacsine development in less than one year, meanwhile incubation process and selection of strain and sampling process should need much more longer time) China using Kungflu as biological weapons as diplomatic tools and coerce other to push their interest toward other countries.
 

Follow us on social media

Top Bottom