Casual Discussion Why haven't there been hundreds of nuclear weapons states?

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ekemenirtu

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This is a rejoinder to member and moderator (for the Indo section) @Nilgiri

and his comment found in a different topic:

Top 48 air forces in 2020


Lest that discussion be derailed, I have decided to create a thread here hoping to hold a casual and informal discussion on the topic. If moderators or admins disagree, they are urged to move the thread to an appropriate section.

Regards.




Just a casual discussion.

I would just like to add this here (mods can move this and other parts of convo to a new/existing thread if appropriate)...given we are talking/diminishing about Indonesia and its capacity to develop N-WMD.

Looking at science+engg. outputs w.r.t N-WMD-acquired country that seem to be brought up a bunch:


A) Of course its a "raw" number very much like the OP post, but gives a general idea.


1. Quantity ≠ quality.

2. Statistics must be understood before they are cited.

In other words, you need to know what a certain indicator refers to before you quote statistics for that indicator.

3. The quantity of papers is not an indication of anything else except just that - the quantity.

4. It is also meaningless to lump together such disparate subject areas as Economics, Econometrics & Finance with Arts & Humanities, or Physics & Astronomy with Social Sciences.



I would just like to add this here (mods can move this and other parts of convo to a new/existing thread if appropriate)...given we are talking/diminishing about Indonesia and its capacity to develop N-WMD.

Looking at science+engg. outputs w.r.t N-WMD-acquired country that seem to be brought up a bunch:


A) Of course its a "raw" number very much like the OP post, but gives a general idea.


5. You are welcome to share them. However, a note of caution is in order.

Your personal experience may not reflect the entire universe of all possible experiences.

Your personal experience may have been coloured by many factors that you are cognizant of and many others that you are not aware of.



B) If people want to launch into specifics of what I have personally seen through my own extended sampling/assay of papers from various countries, can start new thread etc


6. This is a devious trick you have used.

The trick is often called "Divide and Conquer". It has been used by the British and Americans with great success in various parts in the world, and most notably, in the wider Middle East in recent decades with tremendous success.

The division observed among various political factions and ruling regimes is, by no means, coincidental. It is the result of a well calculated, well orchestrated, elaborate strategy hatched by the same USA-UK axis. Further discussion on that topic will take us on a tangent to our original discussion.


7. As observed earlier, quantity ≠ quality.

8. Kudos to the diligent researchers, scientists and engineers who have contributed for both Indonesia and Pakistan in the listed journals at Scopus indexing service.

9. The rapid increase in Indonesian tally can be attributed to a simple explanation.

More journals popular with Indonesian authors have been indexed by Scopus in recent years (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019) than in the past.

10. Using the same trick, Scopus could index more journals popular with Chinese authors and that would rapidly catapult Chinese science, engineering, technology and mathematical paper output way past the American one.

Using the same trick, Russian STEM paper output could easily surpass the British or German one so long as more journals popular with Russian/CIS authors are indexed by Scopus.

The same trick can arguably be used to push the Iranian tally of STEM paper output, too and place them ahead of numerous other similar sized European or East Asian (Japan, RoK) developed countries in aggregate tally.

However, the same old note of caution applies: quantity ≠ quality.

C) Further up you go, of course its harder to gain ranks...but interesting to compare fairly equivalent population countries or debated equivalent perceived power etc. w.r.t this conversation unfolding here especially

INA 2010 total = 2.9k (57)
INA 2019 total = 44.5k (21) gained 36 ranks

PAK 2010 total = 7.6k (44)
PAK 2019 total = 24.3k (34) slipped 10 ranks

INA 2010 Physics = 0.3k (60)
INA 2019 Physics = 11.2k (11) gained 49 ranks

PAK 2010 physics = 1k (44)
PAK 2019 physics = 3.6k (29) gained 15 ranks

INA 2010 Engg = 0.4k (62)
INA 2019 Engg = 11.1k (16) gained 46 ranks

PAK 2010 Engg = 0.9k (50)
PAK 2019 Engg = 5.3k (31) gained 19 ranks

10. It is not as easy.

You have not proved, and there is no way you can prove using SJR (the source you cited), that any country is able, or unable, to produce nuclear bombs.

An apt example would be that of North Korea.

Where does North Korea place in SJR ranks either by quality or by quantity?

Yet, it has mastered through collaboration or by indigenous efforts, both the technologies for producing nuclear weapons and for delivering them across intercontinental distances.

Considering this:

A) What it takes to actually make a (crude, semi-advanced or advanced) bomb with well established technology since the 40s,50s,60s respectively. (60 year "freeze" gap now from 60s)

11. The ranking you have produced is mostly irrelevant, however.

As a consequence, the number of countries above Pakistan, France, UK, India, Russia, North Korea or Zionist regime/Israel in that ranking does not tell you much about the ability of the listed countries to produce nuclear weapons or their ability to deliver them to distances beyond 13,000 km.


B) The number of countries above Pakistan in the ranking by raw quantity and also known deployed quality (in STEM, S&E, RnD) that dont have nuclear weapons

12. Test reactors are found in abundance in various parts of the world.

However, various countries such as Iraq, Syria, Libya, Iran, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan and many more have failed after decades and decades of effort, painstaking effort, blood, sweat and tears of millions of their citizens in many cases, to acquire nuclear weapons. And the means to deliver them across intercontinental distances.

The first country in that list to have done so is North Korea. I note with great pleasure that North Korea has remained, so far, immune to any American invasion.

In contrast, when Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan or many other countries were devastated, none of them could retaliate against the United States - in their homelands to deter such misadventures.

You may note with great interest that Pakistan has yet to develop successfully an indigenous ICBM. A feat that has eluded the likes of Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia and the entirety of the wider "Muslim world", as well as Latin America, Africa or ASEAN, has been achieved by supposedly "starving", malnourished, oppressed, totalitarian, isolated, brainwashed citizens of a tiny, sanctioned, blockaded country of North Korea.

My understanding is that you have never developed nuclear weapons and that you have a rather poor grasp on the topic. I am not a specialist in nuclear weapons design, development or production either.

With that admission out of the way, I can safely say you have little clue on the intricacies involved in the successful development and production of nuclear weapons.

While Pakistan has built up expertise in Plutonium warheads, a technology that is not yet available to Iranians, Turks, Indonesians, Arabs and much of the "oppressed world" (such as Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, wider "Muslim world"), you talk about medical isotopes and test reactors.

I request you to consult specialists on the topic since quite clearly, you are not familiar with the intricacies involved.

C) INA has worked in parallel disciplines with test reactors, foreign nuclear institutes/univesities and even medical isotope production w.r.t HEU byproducts

13. Unfortunately, this line of false argumentation has been repeated ad nauseum in various locations despite being debunked repeatedly as well.

My earlier rejoinder to member @Indos will help you understand the flaws in this sort of argumentation.

This is a false line of argumentation.

For instance, according to this line of argumentation, Bangladesh, Nepal or Sri Lanka needs nuclear weapons more urgently than Pakistan since India already possess such weapons, and the Pakistani Armed Forces is substantially more capable than that of all of those three countries combined in more ways than one.

Similarly, you could argue Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would have needed nuclear weapons since China has long had such weapons and since, recently, North Korea has developed and acquired them.

A similar argument would also hold for numerous other countries in other parts of the world. Plenty of countries in the Latin American region, wary of American history of military interventions, assisted coups and regime change operations, would have all the reasons to develop and/or acquire such weapons.

This line of argumentation can be extended further to the Middle East region. Arab and non Arab majority countries alike would like to develop and/or acquire such weapons to counter the American, Israeli, Russian, French and/or British arsenal.

The same line of argumentation can be equally applicable to many countries in the African region, Caucasus region, ASEAN or Oceania region.

I hope it is clear to see that this line of argumentation does not merit much consideration.

The bulk of the world remains without any nuclear weapons in their inventory, as much as they would have liked reality to be different.



It is indeed only political will (and relevant analysis of geopolitical, geostrategic and economic consequence) that makes up the majority of stop sign for INA --> nuclear WMD

14. There are no countries with nuclear weapons in their inventories today that are less advanced in industrial terms than Indonesia. Every single one of them is more advanced than Indonesia. That is precisely why Indonesia lacks any of the ingredients, or the final products, as well as the recipes, that go into making thermonuclear weapons, plutonium warheads, ICBM, SLBM, nuclear powered submarines, nuclear powered aircraft carriers, SLCM, Air launched cruise mimssiles (ALCM), LACM (Land attack cruise missiles) and such.


As it really is only political will (mostly driven by strategic need/pressure) that would push far industrially less advanced countries than INA today (at the time of their acquiring, dev, deploy) to go for N-WMD and to pick one of the two N-WMD main routes: fissile material enrichment (U-235) or breeding (Pu-239) and acquire those at any methods necessary (with compromises in each one)....when their current state at the time w.r.t RnD in the field was (and sometimes still is) a major obstacle

15. That is certainly true for all imitator countries playing catch up ever since and to this day. Including India, "Israel"/Zionist regime, other "emerging" developing powers such as Brazil or South Africa, North Korea, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia or East Asian Tigers of South Korea and Taiwan.

All largely depended on what they had ToT transferred from more advanced countries (in the field and industry in general) at the time under various political and economic guises.

16. Studying a paper and building a nuclear weapons are hardly comparable.

The Turks - for decades - had not only access to papers and patents, but working land vehicle, marine and aero-engines (turboshafts, turbofans, both low bypass and high bypass) as well as Integrated Circuits of all sorts, often purchased on the international market.

Yet, the Turks, like most other countries playing "catch up" are yet to develop and mass produce a reliable engine of any sort - whether for land vehicle, marine vehicle or aviation applications. I have ignored space applications for the time being.

The same is true for any commercial or defence ICs of some degree of sophistication. This is as true of Turkey as it is of India or Indonesia or Vietnam, Philippines, Nigeria, Kenya, Venezuela, Bolivia, Myanmar and much of the world.

Neutron economy is not hard science for 90%+ countries today (and I would suspect majority of members in this forum with a reading over few months of really what amounts to 6 or so papers)


17. Your knowledge on the matter, once again, is unfortunately inadequate.

It was Dr Samar Mubarakmand more than Dr A Q Khan who contributed to Pakistan's nuclear programme. I won't digress on the two competing 'factions' since that will also cause this discussion to be derailed.

Engineering is where handholding required if not enough assured human capital, funding etc (as is what happened in Pakistan's case with URENCO and AQ. Khan for example).


18. You should not pass a judgement when you lack the required experience or expertise in nuclear physics and engineering. Designing, developing and producing a nuclear bomb is not only about the fissile materials, as you are insinuating.

That is just one crucial ingredient. There is a recipe and other ingredients that are often not discussed, and that are not radioactive, that go into making a bomb. Has Indonesia, like many other countries, displayed any ability to manufacture an explosive lens for example?

INA (And even lot more countries less S&E advanced than INA) has more than required on that (technical capability)....say gas centrifuge development....but it would need aforementioned will and consequence.


19. That is, once again, a digression.

As all of those countries are highly technologically advanced and with active nuclear programmes at some time in the past or present, they would be able to build the bomb if they gain political independence.

It has been reported that both the RoK and RoC (South Korea/Taiwan) nuclear weapons programmes were sabotaged and shut down by their American protectors. It was lack of political independence which prevented them from going nuclear.

Japan, having industrialized earlier, and being a highly developed and technologically advanced country, with more people than RoK+RoC combined is able to easily build a bomb and they have shown their ability to deploy ICBMs through their civilian space programme - only if they gain political independence from their American occupiers.




Longer topic are the status of countries like Japan, SoKo and Taiwan w.r.t disassembled screwdriver bomb. (stay within NPT, but high security readiness).

20. Another one of those devious schemes by you to play the "Divide and Conquer" strategy.

It will not work.

However, to the best of my knowledge, there is no nuclear enrichment facility within the territory of Turkey, no commercial nuclear reactor, no reprocessing facility or no plutonium production facility.

The means for delivering those bombs - often called ballistic missiles - are also lacking in the required range and performance parameters.

Whatever the case may be, both Turkey and Pakistan are intricately linked and are willing and eager to share their experiences in all fields for mutual gains and advancements. There is no competition, jealousy, envy, bigotry or animosity - despite all your devious efforts, between the two brotherly countries.


No one reasonable is also going to suggest Turkey is "behind" Pakistan on nuclear physics research (I can easily bring up specific papers showing this if anyone is interested if the scimajor rankings are not good enough on that particular field)....but Turkey deployed development of a N-WMD intersects again with same considerations as Indonesia to stave it off.


On another note, you may have liked to compare the SJR stats that are relevant:

Papers in Nuclear and High Energy Physics
Sorted by their citations per document stats




23
PK
Pakistan1741726634147138.1383

ahead of much more populous, pompous but often found lacking India

71
IN
India1243123022359694817.99167



and ahead of many other supposedly "industrially advanced" countries

28
CZ
Czech Republic43643413779289931.60139

45
SE
Sweden55054314397279626.18159
46
CA
Canada78677720168382925.66199
48
IL
Israel3253238148138925.07141


50
GB
United Kingdom17811763439891385124.70266
75
RU
Russian Federation21212106328521145615.49246


You would do well to repeat the same exercise for other years apart from 2013, as well.

And if you want to play with statistics, you might want to exclude self-citations and recalibrate the stats once again for gaining more strategic clarity on where these states may stand when it comes to Nuclear and High Energy Physics, the subject category of most relevance to our discussion.
 

Kaptaan

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Since Pakistan is being discussed I hope you gents don't mind me joining the party.

C) Further up you go, of course its harder to gain ranks...but interesting to compare fairly equivalent population countries or debated equivalent perceived power etc. w.r.t this conversation unfolding here especially
How exactly are India and Pakistan even remotely equivalent in population? This is like sizing a elephant with wolf. There is no comparison whatsoever. India is aproximately 7 times greater in population than Pakistan. Just one Indian state [out of 36?] Utter Pradesh has same population as Pakistan.

It was Dr Samar Mubarakmand more than Dr A Q Khan who contributed to Pakistan's nuclear programme. I won't digress on the two competing 'factions' since that will also cause this discussion to be derailed.
Actually I would place Dr Munir Khan as the most important figure in Pakistan's nuclear programme as well as Dr Samar Mubarakmand. Also Professor Abdus Salam the Nobel Laureate played critical role. In 1960s Ayub era as the government's scientific advisor he crafted a policy to nurture a generation of nuclear scientists so that when time would come the country would have the human resources. He did this placing young Pakistani students in Western universities and on the Atoms for Peace programme.

Dr AQ Khan was very good at his own image making and managed to give his face to the Project 786 or Pakistan Nuclear Project when he was just one cog in a complex machine.
 

Nilgiri

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I will reply after conferring with mods if its appropriate given the language levelled here...
 
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ekemenirtu

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You are right in your assessment.

Dr Samar Mubarakmand was only mentioned in relation to the rivalry between the two competing 'factions'. One of them led the development of the solid-fuel ballistic missile programme and the other led the development of the liquid-fuel ballistic missile programme as an example.

No country's nuclear weapons programme can be entirely reliant on a single individual or two for quite obvious reasons.


Actually I would place Dr Munir Khan as the most important figure in Pakistan's nuclear programme as well as Dr Samar Mubarakmand. Also Professor Abdus Salam the Nobel Laureate played critical role. In 1960s Ayub era as the government's scientific advisor he crafted a policy to nurture a generation of nuclear scientists so that when time would come the country would have the human resources. He did this placing young Pakistani students in Western universities and on the Atoms for Peace programme.

Dr AQ Khan was very good at his own image making and managed to give his face to the Project 786 or Pakistan Nuclear Project when he was just one cog in a complex machine.
 

Jackdaws

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Since Pakistan is being discussed I hope you gents don't mind me joining the party.


How exactly are India and Pakistan even remotely equivalent in population? This is like sizing a elephant with wolf. There is no comparison whatsoever. India is aproximately 7 times greater in population than Pakistan. Just one Indian state [out of 36?] Utter Pradesh has same population as Pakistan.


Actually I would place Dr Munir Khan as the most important figure in Pakistan's nuclear programme as well as Dr Samar Mubarakmand. Also Professor Abdus Salam the Nobel Laureate played critical role. In 1960s Ayub era as the government's scientific advisor he crafted a policy to nurture a generation of nuclear scientists so that when time would come the country would have the human resources. He did this placing young Pakistani students in Western universities and on the Atoms for Peace programme.

Dr AQ Khan was very good at his own image making and managed to give his face to the Project 786 or Pakistan Nuclear Project when he was just one cog in a complex machine.
INA = Indonesia, not India. The commonly used acronym for India is IND. He has compared Indonesian and Pakistani populations.
 

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