Pakistan Why Replacing Pakistan’s F-16s Is Harder Than the J-35 Hype Suggests

[Fatman17]

Why Replacing Pakistan’s F-16s Is Harder Than the J-35 Hype Suggests​

Pakistan's F-16s retire by 2040 and the J-35 is the frontrunner — but not a lock. Defence Uncut breaks down the Typhoon, F-16 Block 72, and the PAF's next fighter.

ByQuwa Team·July 9, 2026·4 min read
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Pakistan’s three F-16A/B Block-15 squadrons are scheduled to retire by 2040, with no service life extension left to keep them flying past that point. That timeline sets up the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) largest fighter decision in a generation.
The retirement date is effectively confirmed by the $686 million support and upgrade deal Pakistan signed with the United States in December 2025, aimed largely at keeping the F-16 fleet viable through the 2030s.

The latest episode of Defence Uncut – Quwa’s Pakistani defence news and commentary podcast, hosted by Bilal Khan and Arslan Khan – works through the question that follows. The common assumption is that the Shenyang J-35 stealth fighter simply steps in, but the hosts explain why the real answer is more complicated.

A Mainstay With Big Shoes to Fill​

The F-16 is the PAF’s mainstay multi-role fighter, valued less for any single capability than for its reliability and consistently high availability. It is the aircraft air headquarters can count on for any mission, and it integrates alongside JF-17 Thunder and J-10C formations.

Given that role, the replacement question is not simply about which fighter looks best on paper. As the episode frames it, the PAF must find an aircraft capable of performing the specific jobs the F-16A/Bs perform across three squadrons and roughly 50 to 55 airframes.
The F-16 also brings interoperability with NATO and with regional partners such as Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. That bridge to Western systems is a factor the PAF will weigh, even as it moves further towards Chinese platforms.

The J-35 vs. Western Options​

The Shenyang J-35AE, offered through the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), is the leading candidate – largely because it is the only fifth-generation aircraft currently on offer to the PAF.
Even so, the hosts caution that a stealth fighter does not automatically inherit the F-16’s workhorse role, since low-observable designs tend to carry smaller payloads and require more maintenance between sorties.

This is why the episode argues against writing off the Eurofighter Typhoon. Drawing on cost-per-flight-hour comparisons, the hosts contend that the Typhoon is not as prohibitively expensive as is often assumed, especially when a single Typhoon’s ability to carry heavy payloads over long ranges is weighed against several lighter aircraft.
The political objections are valid, however. Germany’s restrictions on integrating Pakistani munitions are a genuine obstacle, though the hosts note that interface solutions and Türkiye’s own new-build Typhoon order could be factors as well.
There is also a strong case for new-build F-16 Block 72s. The PAF already operates the Block 52, so inducting the closely related Block 72 would carry little transition difficulty, and the F-16 line is expected to support airframes into the 2070s.
Interestingly, the hosts suggest the PAF might prefer a Chinese heavyweight such as the J-16 if it were on offer, given that aircraft’s role as the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s mainstay. That option is not on the table, and older strike platforms such as the JH-7B are treated as effectively dead ends.

 

[Fatman17]

PAF has only 2 western combat aircraft in its inventory.
The F-16 - which consist of 18 C/D block 52s - 45+ AM / BM MLU and 16 ADF.
The other is the French Mirage lll/V ROSE roughly 40 in number.
PAF is a "western " trained AF which is replacing its western origin aircraft with Chinese origin aircraft like the JF-17 Thunder and the J-10CE.
If Pakistan has to induct additional F-16s in its inventory it has to do so with sovereign funds. A further 18 F-16s would cost around 2-3B$ based on the configuration and weapons systems.
Pakistan needs to take advantage of the current "warmth " between the US and Pakistan to secure this critical deal.
Pakistan has also indicated that a further 20 examples of J-10CE are planned and the procurement may be in the works.