World Energy Market

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546113333941735424

 

[TheInsider]

Germany is done. I won't be surprised if Germany pays back the 300 billion $ Russian money that is confiscated with a written apology.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546135221095092225

 

[what]

Germany is done. I won't be surprised if Germany pays back the 300 billion $ Russian money that is confiscated with a written apology.

Your defence knowledge aside, you sure like to say a lot of unqualified things about Germany. Is it something personal?

Because you know, sitting here in Germany, there is no done-ness visible here or any panic. Germany has the economic power to get through a total Russian gas stop with just a minor recession, by the summer next year it will be back to normal.

Germany can afford to buy expensive LNG for years if it has to, to burn coal if it has to, and to restart the nuclear reactors if it has to. You know how rich Germany is? (I'm not bragging, just stating facts) its in a position where it decided to turn of perfectly fine nuclear reactors and very modern state-of-the-art coal power stations because of its effects on the environment.

Germany can afford because it can still loan a shitload of money and still has a good debt to GDP ratio. Germany can afford it because it is exporting more goods into the world in a good month than Turkey does in a year. And I haven't even talked about the companies itself and their plans to withstand the gas stop.

But mark my words, Russia will not stop delivering gas to Germany.
Because:
they need the money
the gas has to go somewhere, they can only store little of what they produce
they cant just stop the gas wells without damaging them or some of them might be gone for good.

they cant sell it elsewhere, because Russia's gas grid and fields are de facto separated with gas fields for the western markets and pipes for it and gas fields for the Asian markets and separate pipe network for it. They are not connected or do not have the capacity to just pump it elsewhere.


My household is heated through district heating and the electricity is coming from the same plant too. Its burning rubbish with an efficiency of 96%. But I'd gladly take one cold winter if its going to hurt Russia and end the war.

Also do you mind answering this question from yesterday?

Sorry, but where did Germany cancel any aid?

Maybe try to use sources for once, instead of just claiming things.

 

[Bogeyman]

Your defence knowledge aside, you sure like to say a lot of unqualified things about Germany. Is it something personal?

Because you know, sitting here in Germany, there is no done-ness visible here or any panic. Germany has the economic power to get through a total Russian gas stop with just a minor recession, by the summer next year it will be back to normal.

Germany can afford to buy expensive LNG for years if it has to, to burn coal if it has to, and to restart the nuclear reactors if it has to. You know how rich Germany is? (I'm not bragging, just stating facts) its in a position where it decided to turn of perfectly fine nuclear reactors and very modern state-of-the-art coal power stations because of its effects on the environment.

Germany can afford because it can still loan a shitload of money and still has a good debt to GDP ratio. Germany can afford it because it is exporting more goods into the world in a good month than Turkey does in a year. And I haven't even talked about the companies itself and their plans to withstand the gas stop.

But mark my words, Russia will not stop delivering gas to Germany.
Because:
they need the money
the gas has to go somewhere, they can only store little of what they produce
they cant just stop the gas wells without damaging them or some of them might be gone for good.

they cant sell it elsewhere, because Russia's gas grid and fields are de facto separated with gas fields for the western markets and pipes for it and gas fields for the Asian markets and separate pipe network for it. They are not connected or do not have the capacity to just pump it elsewhere.


My household is heated through district heating and the electricity is coming from the same plant too. Its burning rubbish with an efficiency of 96%. But I'd gladly take one cold winter if its going to hurt Russia and end the war.

Also do you mind answering this question from yesterday?


Maybe try to use sources for once, instead of just claiming things.

If you read the first message of this topic, you will see that people in Germany are afraid of freezing (last year's news) if there is no gas.
So if the gas goes off, people will be talking about freezing from the cold. You say that the German economy is very strong. I think there will be interesting sights waiting for you there.

In the meantime, you can generate electricity with natural gas. But you cannot heat people with electricity. I think you're having a hard time understanding how you're standing on the brink of a cliff.

 

[Lool]

Your defence knowledge aside, you sure like to say a lot of unqualified things about Germany. Is it something personal?

Because you know, sitting here in Germany, there is no done-ness visible here or any panic. Germany has the economic power to get through a total Russian gas stop with just a minor recession, by the summer next year it will be back to normal.

Germany can afford to buy expensive LNG for years if it has to, to burn coal if it has to, and to restart the nuclear reactors if it has to. You know how rich Germany is? (I'm not bragging, just stating facts) its in a position where it decided to turn of perfectly fine nuclear reactors and very modern state-of-the-art coal power stations because of its effects on the environment.

Germany can afford because it can still loan a shitload of money and still has a good debt to GDP ratio. Germany can afford it because it is exporting more goods into the world in a good month than Turkey does in a year. And I haven't even talked about the companies itself and their plans to withstand the gas stop.

But mark my words, Russia will not stop delivering gas to Germany.
Because:
they need the money
the gas has to go somewhere, they can only store little of what they produce
they cant just stop the gas wells without damaging them or some of them might be gone for good.

they cant sell it elsewhere, because Russia's gas grid and fields are de facto separated with gas fields for the western markets and pipes for it and gas fields for the Asian markets and separate pipe network for it. They are not connected or do not have the capacity to just pump it elsewhere.


My household is heated through district heating and the electricity is coming from the same plant too. Its burning rubbish with an efficiency of 96%. But I'd gladly take one cold winter if its going to hurt Russia and end the war.

Also do you mind answering this question from yesterday?


Maybe try to use sources for once, instead of just claiming things.

I mean no offense but.... it is true that the Germans give priority to their well-being over anything else tbh. Iam not saying it is wrong to do so but if the Germans believe that the cheap russian gas is the way to go, then 10 years later and Putin will invade Germany. Putin just proved to the whole world that he will restore the Soviet Union regardless of the expenses

As TheInsider said, Putin said that the germans reached all the way to Moscow but it was the Soviet flag that flew over Berlin at the end of the day

Recently, public approval for tough sanctions against Putin has been decreasing and the govt is slowly trying to cover for Russia by forcing Lithuania to open its railways for a direct link to Russian kaliningrad (or whatever it was pronounced). There is something wrong when the weakest EU countries have supported Ukraine with billions while the 5000 German helmets have yet to arrive after 5 months

I cant believe Iam saying this, but Putin truly understands the Germans; inside out! I expect no less from a former KGB spy who operated in Germany! Putin is betting on a prolonged war to force EU to reduce arms supplies and financial assistance so that Ukraine will start to slowly crumble and he is already starting to reap the rewards tbh

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545313701774954497

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546264051168182272

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546222908418187264

 

[Anastasius]

Your defence knowledge aside, you sure like to say a lot of unqualified things about Germany. Is it something personal?

Because you know, sitting here in Germany, there is no done-ness visible here or any panic. Germany has the economic power to get through a total Russian gas stop with just a minor recession, by the summer next year it will be back to normal.

Germany can afford to buy expensive LNG for years if it has to, to burn coal if it has to, and to restart the nuclear reactors if it has to. You know how rich Germany is? (I'm not bragging, just stating facts) its in a position where it decided to turn of perfectly fine nuclear reactors and very modern state-of-the-art coal power stations because of its effects on the environment.

Germany can afford because it can still loan a shitload of money and still has a good debt to GDP ratio. Germany can afford it because it is exporting more goods into the world in a good month than Turkey does in a year. And I haven't even talked about the companies itself and their plans to withstand the gas stop.

But mark my words, Russia will not stop delivering gas to Germany.
Because:
they need the money
the gas has to go somewhere, they can only store little of what they produce
they cant just stop the gas wells without damaging them or some of them might be gone for good.

they cant sell it elsewhere, because Russia's gas grid and fields are de facto separated with gas fields for the western markets and pipes for it and gas fields for the Asian markets and separate pipe network for it. They are not connected or do not have the capacity to just pump it elsewhere.


My household is heated through district heating and the electricity is coming from the same plant too. Its burning rubbish with an efficiency of 96%. But I'd gladly take one cold winter if its going to hurt Russia and end the war.

Also do you mind answering this question from yesterday?


Maybe try to use sources for once, instead of just claiming things.

You are missing one of TheInsider's first points which is that the only reason Germany is able to be such a production giant is because of Russian resources. You can't make something from nothing.

And while I hate to admit it, Russia doesn't mind too much if they have to cut back gas exports because it means they can use it domestically. They've already been cutting down for a while before the war started because they are using more and more for domestic consumption.

So while we in America are going through ridiculous gas hikes, the average Russian is coasting along for cheap.

 

[Nilgiri]

Germany should have gone fully nuclear as possible like France for the power grid.

Then it should have built enough LNG terminals and the infra for that, to be prepared to import gas by sea rather than switch to depend on large country that was on other side of cold war for so long.

Its honestly why I hold the French in much greater regard (to the Germans) for their long term strategic thinking.

Germany is classic case of establishment being quite idiotic relative to the potential on offer.

 

[Bogeyman]

Germany should have gone fully nuclear as possible like France for the power grid.

Then it should have built enough LNG terminals and the infra for that, to be prepared to import gas by sea rather than switch to depend on large country that was on other side of cold war for so long.

Its honestly why I hold the French in much greater regard (to the Germans) for their long term strategic thinking.

Germany is classic case of establishment being quite idiotic relative to the potential on offer.

This farsightedness you speak of always remains on paper. In fact, the French neglected the necessary maintenance as they did not train engineers for their nuclear power plants. And after all, only half of the 56 nuclear power plants are operating today.

In other words, the French have become a country that importing electricity from being an electricity exporting country. The French, who are incapable of claiming the strategic value they have, were about to join the rush of closing nuclear power plants a few years ago.

 

[TheInsider]

There are two conditions for the German economy to crash.
1) Russia stops delivering fossil fuels and doesn't change its stance
2) A certain short amount of time needs to pass after the first condition is satisfied because Germany has natural gas reserves in its storage facilities.

If Russia is serious about this and keeps cutting fossil fuel supply Germany has no way to avoid an economical disaster it is simple as that. Germany can't get natural gas from any other source. Neither the US nor Qatar nor a combination of natural gas producer countries are enough to satisfy the needs of the EU. The German economy will crash after the German industry uses whatever strategic natural gas reserve Germany has. If the EU dives into a recession Greeks will be the first ones to feel the heat because of colossal Greek debt. Greeks are financing their debt with unlogical cheap loans. Even though Greeks have debts over %250 of Greek GDP creditors keep giving them money with a %1 interest rate because Greece is an EU country. They are not paying back the debt. They are financing the debt with more debt.

 

[Bogeyman]

Fearing Russian gas shut-off, France's industry turns to oil​

France's energy-intensive companies are speeding up contingency plans and converting their gas boilers to run on oil as they seek to avoid disruption in the event any further reduction in Russian gas supplies leads to power outages.

Gathered over the weekend at a business and economics conference in southern France, several top executives said they were preparing for possible blackouts.

"What we've done is we've converted our boilers, so they're capable of running on gas or oil, and we can even switch to coal if we need to," said Florent Menegaux, the boss of Michelin (MICP.PA), one of the world's leading tyre-makers.

"The aim is to avoid having to shut down a plant in case we face a shortage," he added, saying that while a gas shortage in Europe was likely, oil would still be available as an alternative.

It takes days to start up tyre production at a manufacturing plant, Menegaux said, making it essential to maintain a steady energy supply.

Russia in June reduced flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, its main route for shipping gas into western Europe, to 40% of capacity. Politicians and industry are concerned there will be further supply constraints linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow describes as a "special military operation"

Across Europe, industry has been resorting to more polluting fuel than gas as it gives precedence to tackling the cost to the economy of business disruption and surging energy prices, rather than longer-term targets to switch to zero carbon fuel.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the top corporate executives attending the conference it would be irresponsible not to prepare for shortages.

"Let's prepare for a cut-off of Russian gas," he told them. "Today it's the most likely scenario."

France, relies on nuclear power for around 70% of its electricity, meaning it is far less directly dependendent on Russian gas than neighbouring Germany.

However, the state-controlled electricity producer EDF (EDF.PA) is struggling to meet France's needs because of outages at its ageing power plants, increasing the strain on the rest of the energy sector.

Energy production at 29 of its 56 nuclear reactors has been halted by inspections and repairs.

The French government is checking company-by-company which ones depend on an uninterrupted energy supply.

It has also sought to reduce the impact of a surge in energy prices by capping retail gas and power prices until the end of the year, which has helped to keep French inflation among the lowest in Europe.

A chairman of another large industrial company, who asked not to be named, told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference he believed all big businesses were looking at a switch to oil.

Automaker Stellantis (STLA.MI) is weighing options to produce its own energy in case of an energy crunch, Chief Executive Carlos Tavares said at a French factory last month.

These include building its own energy plant or investing in an existing one to secure part of the production.

Poland's former energy minister Michal Kurtyka, whose country relies on coal for 70% of its energy, told executives at the conference that Europe was headed for a "perfect storm" this winter.

Fearing Russian gas shut-off, France's industry turns to oil

France's energy-intensive companies are speeding up contingency plans and converting their gas boilers to run on oil as they seek to avoid disruption in the event any further reduction in Russian gas supplies leads to power outages.

www.reuters.com

 

[Nilgiri]

This farsightedness you speak of always remains on paper. In fact, the French neglected the necessary maintenance as they did not train engineers for their nuclear power plants. And after all, only half of the 56 nuclear power plants are operating today.

In other words, the French have become a country that importing electricity from being an electricity exporting country. The French, who are incapable of claiming the strategic value they have, were about to join the rush of closing nuclear power plants a few years ago.

The kind of reactors shut down from the peak is a larger story (i.e why are breeder phenix et al not so economical in the long run).

Whatever the transient power grid issues they have (w.r.t exports/imports), nuclear provides the vast bulk of their electricity generation....the only major economy in the world this is the case.

What is the indication that French signalled any move away from nuclear power as bulk of power grid quickly? (especially as quickly as Germans did with the handful of reactors they stupidly closed down prematurely and now chugging on coal to replace).

If anything I have seen French double down on it (and planning next generation expansion), more than any other european country.

French didn't do things as well as they could have been (as it goes for everyone in the end), but they tried and achieved a result right now.

Germans didnt even try. They are clearly worse relative to the French on this.

 

[xizhimen]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546135221095092225

Germany is doomed, good opportunity for global competitors to take over German share of global high end manufacturing sector.

 

[Bogeyman]

The kind of reactors shut down from the peak is a larger story (i.e why are breeder phenix et al not so economical in the long run).

Whatever the transient power grid issues they have (w.r.t exports/imports), nuclear provides the vast bulk of their electricity generation....the only major economy in the world this is the case.

What is the indication that French signalled any move away from nuclear power as bulk of power grid quickly? (especially as quickly as Germans did with the handful of reactors they stupidly closed down prematurely and now chugging on coal to replace).

If anything I have seen French double down on it (and planning next generation expansion), more than any other european country.

French didn't do things as well as they could have been (as it goes for everyone in the end), but they tried and achieved a result right now.

Germans didnt even try. They are clearly worse relative to the French on this.

With 56 reactors, France’s atomic fleet is the biggest after the United States’. A quarter of Europe’s electricity comes from nuclear power in about dozen countries, with France producing more than half the total.

But the French nuclear industry, mostly built in the 1980s, has been plagued for decades by a lack of fresh investment. Experts say it has lost valuable engineering expertise as people retired or moved on, with repercussions for EDF’s ability to maintain the existing power stations — or build ones to replace them.

“EDF’s strategy, endorsed by the government, was to delay the reinvestment and transformation of the system,” said Yves Marignac, a nuclear energy specialist at négaWatt, a think tank in Paris. “The more EDF delays, the more skills keep getting lost, technical problems accumulate and there is a snowball effect.”

But the few new nuclear reactors that EDF has built have been dogged by huge cost overruns and delays. An EDF-made pressurized water reactor at Hinkley Point, in southwest England, won’t start operating until 2027 — four years behind schedule and too late to help Britain’s swift turn from Russian oil and gas. Finland’s newest EDF nuclear power plant, which started operating last month, was supposed to be completed in 2009.

I `m talking about this. It's too late to invest now. Moreover, as you can see in the news, the construction quality of nuclear power plants is creeping on the ground. France doesn't have 10 years anymore.

 

[xizhimen]

I `m talking about this. It's too late to invest now. Moreover, as you can see in the news, the construction quality of nuclear power plants is creeping on the ground. France doesn't have 10 years anymore.

France is not much better than Germany, EU 's energy crisis is self inflicted, no sympathy for them.

France could cut electricity to some companies over energy disruptions

"Let's prepare for a total cut-off of Russian gas. This is now the most likely option," France's economy minister Bruno Le Maire said on Sunday. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

 

[xizhimen]

Thank goodness we didn't follow EU's path to mess with Russia, if China did the same, there would be a knockout blow to the Chinese economy due to the sheer amount of energy we consume.

 

[Nilgiri]

I `m talking about this. It's too late to invest now. Moreover, as you can see in the news, the construction quality of nuclear power plants is creeping on the ground. France doesn't have 10 years anymore.

Any route picked, you will stumble into problems over time. Upkeep, new investment and so on, its budgeting demands and pressures.

I'm talking about the route actually picked in forks in road time (over 2 -3 critical decades or so), Germany did a noticeably bad job on that compared to France.

Its also not like Germany had to follow the same French problems/issues (with their nuclear grid) either necessarily/inevitably....that would depend on their further decision making once the strategy was picked and commited.

But Germany simply doesnt even have the scope of ~ 75% nuclear power (for grid) that France has to work with (problems, issues and everything taken into account)....because of its decision making....and in concert with what it developed with Russian energy reliance to address it instead.

Thus it has far more narrow options when something like this (war) happens....every bit counts in the end.

 

[Anastasius]

The kind of reactors shut down from the peak is a larger story (i.e why are breeder phenix et al not so economical in the long run).

Whatever the transient power grid issues they have (w.r.t exports/imports), nuclear provides the vast bulk of their electricity generation....the only major economy in the world this is the case.

What is the indication that French signalled any move away from nuclear power as bulk of power grid quickly? (especially as quickly as Germans did with the handful of reactors they stupidly closed down prematurely and now chugging on coal to replace).

If anything I have seen French double down on it (and planning next generation expansion), more than any other european country.

French didn't do things as well as they could have been (as it goes for everyone in the end), but they tried and achieved a result right now.

Germans didnt even try. They are clearly worse relative to the French on this.

Germany fell for the Fukushima scare-mongering which is why they are behind. I don't think it's fair to say they didn't even try.

 

[Nilgiri]

Germany fell for the Fukushima scare-mongering which is why they are behind. I don't think it's fair to say they didn't even try.

Yah but I mean the scale French strategically opted for in the 70s and 80s (I think stemming mostly from the oil crisis shock of 70s).

Thats part of reason French also switched the TGV from gas turbine (in the original prototype) to electric as well.

Germans didnt try something like that, rather the nuclear plants they went for is more of a conventional mainstream western hedge....in line with most western/developed countries at large.

But they could have ramped up like French opted to, they were looking at the same situation French did overall....and its not like there is significant gap between their industrial, scientific and technical capabilities (once committed to a program).

But they played safe so to speak....and somewhat too much (especially not hedging for more Gas networking from non-russian sources).

The fukushima consequence is also really wrecking havoc on Japan's electricity availability right now too.

French weathered that pressure from fukushima by its commitment to nuclear, and how its baked in.

 

[what]

You're all making valid points. But it seems like Germany is gathering an unusual amount of attention, when most of the continent continued to rely on Russian gas - because it seemed so unrealistic that Putin would go so far as he did.

If it was up to me nuclear energy would play a larger role until 2035, especially now. Instead coal has to be burned now and the fuel rods for the nuclear powerplants are hard to get or only in 6-9 months.