News No Cold War? Chip War in Search of World Dominance Between US-China & Why The World Need Taiwan

[Gundala]

Many experts suggest that future of world domination will be based on Artificial Intellegence (AI) & Chip Industry. The world largest & most advance Chip manufacture is TSMC which is a Taiwan company followed by Intel & Samsung. Now this chip is use in consumer products, cars, phone, and even military. With this fact we know how important Taiwan to the world or rather how important TSMC to the world strategically. Trust me when I say neither US or China want TSMC to be the casualty of war and disrupt the global supply chain of advanced chip that both of them and the rest of the world needed. Now we know why China & US have been elbowing each other about Taiwan issue, not about preserving democracy nor the reason of unifying China, it all just a mumbo jumbo to make Taiwan status quo preserved simply because the one who "Get" Taiwan might be able to control the world and how important Taiwan is to the world.

We as Indonesian must know the geopolitic & strategic placement in the region to have better understanding on what lies beneath all those news from main stream media. Why? Because it will effect us in a political manner then trickle down to our own every day people. We have the freedom to choose our way of living but in some cases it chooses us and leave us with very few option to begin with.

Japan bold statement that say they will step in if China attack Taiwan is not because of friendship, preserving human rights, they hate China or any other reasons we see in the media. Not at all, Japan as highly advanced industrial nation need the advanced chips. Without it their industry will get disrupted or forced to use older technology/chip. Imagine how its going to effect their GDP if it happen.

China is bidding on their own Chip manufacturing technology, they know how important it is to be self reliant is this are. US is also doing the same bid by trying to give insentive to Intel which is currently one of the biggest chip manufacture in the world. The race is on and the new version of cold war is happening.

So what is the current standing between US & China? In AI sector US is leading the way here as many experts have said. In chip manufacturing China also playing a catch up game to US as well in a hope somehow beat Taiwan and be no.1 to make the world relly on them. US Intel also get many supports from US Govt as their Govt know how important it is to keep the lead and sprint away if possible.

How it connected to us? Remember SCS? China starting to "Police" or rather acting like "Polantas" to hold the grip on this strategic waterway. But keep in mind that it might also include "Air Trafficing" in a future simply because human greed has no boundery. How it is going to affect Chip global supply chain? As always, I leave it up to you to decide.

To us, the region temperature is showing the tendency to get hotter. Tho we rather "far" from SCS but when sh*t hit the fan the world will relly toward Indonesia to provide them with safer alternate route/detour and protect the security of the traffic. Perhaps the imaginery line from @FPXAllen can be translate into that? I dont know, but what I know the importance of choosing the type of military assets we going to get (naval/ground/air) and the country origin of the military assets (geopolitic) is to be taken in more serious manner and require more cumulative consideration from alot of Indonesian Ministry, think tank, etc. How its going to be translated into military assets acquisition and is our military ready to face the future challange? Only time will tell

Edit: Spelling/Wording

 

[FPXAllen]

Just chip in (pun intended) briefly for now because I'm still in the middle of work, but:

Perhaps the imaginery line from @FPXAllen can be translate into that?

It's not Imaginary!

#leylineftw
#leylinewillsaveusall

 

[trishna_amrta]

Many experts suggest that future of world domination will be based on Artificial Intellegence (AI) & Chip Industry.

I've already lost count how many times I've mention semi-conductor industry capability. But then again, most of you guys here doesn't have the slightest clue as what semi-conductor is in the first place.

Japan bold statement that say they will step in if China attack Taiwan is not because of friendship, preserving human rights, they hate China or any other reasons we see in the media. Not at all, Japan as highly advanced industrial nation need the advanced chips. Without it their industry will get disrupted or forced to use older technology/chip.

The current global chip shortage is for low-end chip, NOT for high end. have more than enough capability to design & manufacture any kind of chip. What they don't have is capacity. It can be done, but it will take several Billions USD and 3 - 4 years to set up shop. private sector have all the money, but they certainly don't have the time.

China is bidding on their own Chip manufacturing technology, they know how important it is to be self reliant is this are. US is also doing the same bid by trying to give insentive to Intel which is currently one of the biggest chip manufacture in the world.

With the current rate of industrial progress, will reach semiconductor independency capability in the next 10 years, however currently being embargoed by on semiconductor design tool & manufacturing tool & machineries that will be setting back progress by at least another additional 10 years.

Having the know-how to design & manufacturing a chip is one thing, having the tools & machineries is another. While having the capability to design & manufacture the needed tools & machineries such as the private sector is another level entirely that would require adopting Freedom & Democracy in every aspect.

The current shortage for low-end chip will persist until Q2 2023. This is where all the current manufacturer began shipping out their chips from their new factories.

 

[Ravager]

I've already lost count how many times I've mention semi-conductor industry capability. But then again, most of you guys here doesn't have the slightest clue as what semi-conductor is in the first place.


The current global chip shortage is for low-end chip, NOT for high end. have more than enough capability to design & manufacture any kind of chip. What they don't have is capacity. It can be done, but it will take several Billions USD and 3 - 4 years to set up shop. private sector have all the money, but they certainly don't have the time.


With the current rate of industrial progress, will reach semiconductor independency capability in the next 10 years, however currently being embargoed by on semiconductor design tool & manufacturing tool & machineries that will be setting back progress by at least another additional 10 years.

Having the know-how to design & manufacturing a chip is one thing, having the tools & machineries is another. While having the capability to design & manufacture the needed tools & machineries such as the private sector is another level entirely that would require adopting Freedom & Democracy in every aspect.

The current shortage for low-end chip will persist until Q2 2023. This is where all the current manufacturer began shipping out their chips from their new factories.

The moment mainland get their Chip's independence . That was the day we had to enter the underground bunkers and worrying about the real nuclear fallout in actuality .

 

[Jackdaws]

Good to know Tata isn't sitting idle

Tata Sons to make semiconductors, leveraging opportunity arising out of global chip shortage

The in-house semiconductor manufacturing facility in Hosur will ensure supplies to group companies Tata Motors and Tata Power and open prospects for catering to local and global markets

www.moneycontrol.com

Tata Sons plans to start making semiconductors at its Hosur facility under Tata Electronics, taking advantage of a global shift in supply chain dynamics and a worldwide chip shortage that may continue into next year.

“At the group, we have already set up a business to seize the promise of high-tech manufacturing of electronics, precision manufacturing, assembly and testing, and semiconductors in the medium term,” chairman N Chandrasekaran said.

@Nilgiri

 

[Gundala]

It's not Imaginary!

#leylineftw
#leylinewillsaveusall

My bad

 

[trishna_amrta]

Good to know Tata isn't sitting idle

Tata Sons to make semiconductors, leveraging opportunity arising out of global chip shortage

The in-house semiconductor manufacturing facility in Hosur will ensure supplies to group companies Tata Motors and Tata Power and open prospects for catering to local and global markets

www.moneycontrol.com

Tata Sons plans to start making semiconductors at its Hosur facility under Tata Electronics, taking advantage of a global shift in supply chain dynamics and a worldwide chip shortage that may continue into next year.

“At the group, we have already set up a business to seize the promise of high-tech manufacturing of electronics, precision manufacturing, assembly and testing, and semiconductors in the medium term,” chairman N Chandrasekaran said.

I just check that news article. It's very dubious. It's more like Tata Electronic merely investing in the ATMP side (Assembly, Testing, Marking, Packaging). So it will not be chip fab.

 

[trishna_amrta]

The moment mainland get their Chip's independence . That was the day we had to enter the underground bunkers and worrying about the real nuclear fallout in actuality .

doesn't need to wait that long. All they need to do is hit our teleco & power distribution trough cyber domain. With teleco & power grid went down, how would you're going to get foods, clean water, and fuel

In that kind of scenario, most of you guys here, particularly those of you who reside at Jabodetabek area will be the first to go as a result of metro area wide riot, looting, killing, rapping, (you know the usual menu) or a simple case of not having foods & drinking water.

 

[Jackdaws]

I just check that news article. It's very dubious. It's more like Tata Electronic merely investing in the ATMP side (Assembly, Testing, Marking, Packaging). So it will not be chip fab.

Honestly i dont know enough about the topic. If I find out more, I will post it.

 

[FPXAllen]

Many experts suggest that future of world domination will be based on Artificial Intellegence (AI) & Chip Industry. [...]

The thing that bothers me most when it comes to semiconductor vis-a-vis Indonesia, is that in the 1980's we had a chance to have a semiconductor manufacturing facility built in here when Fairchild corporation offered their proposal to the Indonesian government back then. It was rejected because it was not "Padat Karya" by Soeharto.

And this was also something that Fairchild was developing in the 1980's. That means, thanks to Soeharto's shortsightedness and insistence to only allow labour intensive industries to open their shop here back then, we've missed the opportunity big time. Twice.

Thrice, if you include this guy:

Sehat Sutardja - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Oh well...

 

[Gundala]

The thing that bothers me most when it comes to semiconductor vis-a-vis Indonesia, is that in the 1980's we had a chance to have a semiconductor manufacturing facility built in here when Fairchild corporation offered their proposal to the Indonesian government back then. It was rejected because it was not "Padat Karya" by Soeharto.

And this was also something that Fairchild was developing in the 1980's. That means, thanks to Soeharto's shortsightedness and insistence to only allow labour intensive industries to open their shop here back then, we've missed the opportunity big time. Twice.

Thrice, if you include this guy:

Sehat Sutardja - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Oh well...

Oh man dont even go there , it breaks my heart even alot more seeing that kind of things still happening but for a different "silly" reason. I know some recent projects that have the same faith and couple of them are strategics imo. But hey chin up! at least some of them get thru and now we dont have to worry much about "dikarungin" if we throw critics to the govt like in Soeharto era right?

 

[Nilgiri]

Good to know Tata isn't sitting idle

Tata Sons to make semiconductors, leveraging opportunity arising out of global chip shortage

The in-house semiconductor manufacturing facility in Hosur will ensure supplies to group companies Tata Motors and Tata Power and open prospects for catering to local and global markets

www.moneycontrol.com

Tata Sons plans to start making semiconductors at its Hosur facility under Tata Electronics, taking advantage of a global shift in supply chain dynamics and a worldwide chip shortage that may continue into next year.

“At the group, we have already set up a business to seize the promise of high-tech manufacturing of electronics, precision manufacturing, assembly and testing, and semiconductors in the medium term,” chairman N Chandrasekaran said.

@Nilgiri

It is moving along the MVA chain (yes things like this were not being done in India this long, which is shameful).

But trishna is correct its not level of a chip fab (which is really the top tier echelon of it...along with the capital machinery involved in that fab).

Think of semiconductor industry as many layers and tiers....India is (inevitably) now slowly moving into tiers past just import (ready complete system) + deploy like it has been used to. There is lot of MVA in assembling components and testing systems itself (that India forks out money instead of labour for currently).

@Rajaraja Chola is actually the guy you should talk to on this stuff.

 

[Barry]

mate i just want affordable geforce cards

 

[trishna_amrta]

mate i just want affordable geforce cards

ooops you're not going to get any. We, crypto miners already bought them all in bulk

 

[xizhimen]

China set to achieve 14 nm breakthrough in 2022
Tuesday 13 July 21​

China consumes about 70% of global semiconductor production. But the country’s plans to mass produce 14 nm chips next year within the country is likely to make China the biggest semiconductor supplier globally.​

A sudden surge in demand for electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented shortage of semiconductor chips worldwide. Right from gaming consoles, laptops and desktop to even digital thermometers have been faced with an acute chip shortage due to a sudden increase in demand, bringing to fore the importance of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing. China is taking a lead in addressing the global shortage of chips by accelerating the development and manufacturing of 14 nm chips, which are expected to go into mass production in the country in 2022.

While China is the world's biggest consumer of semiconductors, a large part of that demand has been met through imports so far. However, the country is making rapid strides in becoming self-reliant and developing a strong ecosystem of semiconductor design and manufacturing.

“China has a lot of work to do, but the plan appears to address main areas of weaknesses—Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software and semiconductor equipment for lithography. China needs not just to fabricate the chips, but they also need to design software and equipment without having to rely on other countries for those. China has to approximately double its production of semiconductors for its own consumption from 15% of its needs to 30% to lessen the effect of supply disruptions and production of electronics,” says Christopher Taylor, Director, RF and Wireless at Strategy Analytics said while talking about the areas that need to be addressed by China in semiconductor production.

Developing New Competencies
In lithography, China’s Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment Company already offers the 600/20 flagship lithography machine, which uses an argon fluoride excimer laser generating 193 nanometers deep UV light and immersion lithography for 90 nm chips. By Q4 of this year, the company will offer machines capable of 28 nm, the equivalent of ASML’s 1980Di machine.

“With this capability, Chinese semiconductor companies will not have to rely on buying machines from ASML and having them to be maintained and serviced,” Taylor said. He pointed out that with multiple patterning, it should be possible to make a more advanced version of the Shanghai Microelectronics machine capable of 7 nm chips, which is equivalent to more advanced ASML machines. “We think China will have its own 14 nm capable machines in 2022. In EDA, China has a world-class EDA company with worldwide customers. It also has some promising EDA startups,” he added.



The development of 28 nm and 14 nm chips within the country is one of the most significant milestones that China has been able to achieve so far in its journey towards self-sufficiency. For example, China’s biggest semiconductor foundry, SMIC, is already producing 28 nm and 14 nm chips for high volume applications such as smartphone applications processors. There is a significant volume for 14 nm chips, especially in low-end smartphones.

“China has a big role to play in 28 nm and 14 nm chip production. We also see that automotive and industrial applications can benefit from 28 nm chips. We think China is well-positioned to address these applications, including low-end smartphones, automotive, and industrial,” said Saravan Kundojjala, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics.

Today, Taiwan and South Korea account for the majority of 14 nm production. But the success of China in 14 nm and 28 nm is critical for the country to claim its stake in the global semiconductor industry, Kundojjala pointed out.

The 28 nm chips are the most popular process known globally. Production of chips of 28 nm and above, therefore, is expected to have an overall impact on self-sufficiency and shortages. Taylor pointed out that chips with 14 nm should be adequate for many processors for phones and other devices, although it is not quite the cutting edge. “Today, 5nm is considered leading-edge. However, leading-edge chips at 7 nm and below made up only 6.4% of the $440 billion of chips sold last year, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization. It is, therefore, a relatively small proportion right now. Today, more than 95% of the market is at 14 nm and above,” Taylor said.

Addressing global shortages
Any production of more chips will help in addressing the global chip shortage. According to China’s general administration of customs, China imported about $310 billion of chips in 2020 out of the $440 billion semiconductor market, which is about 70% of the market. Most of the imported chips went into electronics production, more than half of which China exported to the rest of the world.

The semiconductor shortage is expected to persist even through 2022. Multiple factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic-driven demand, earlier than anticipated recovery in the market in sectors such as automotive, stockpiling, double ordering etc., led to this shortage.

“The industry is looking at more capacity. China adds geographic diversity. Companies outside China can also benefit from China’s semiconductor investments and progress,” Kundojjala said. “If you look broadly, shortages point to strong underlying demand. Many companies expect these shortages to persist through 2022. If you look at the total available market for semiconductors, Covid-19 helped the industry permanently increase the TAM of the global semiconductor market size in multiple areas. Thanks to the acceleration of digital transformation, we think China’s contributions and investments will definitely help the world.”

China’s investments in 28 nm and above nodes will help alleviate shortages in power management chips, display driver ICs etc. Semiconductor shortages have highlighted the importance of self-sufficiency, and China is progressing well in that regard. The mass production of 28 nm chips is expected to be realized by the end of this year.

Placing a tough bet?
While highlighting the importance of gambling on self-reliance, Taylor pointed out a similar situation that the US faced three decades ago. “In the 1990s, US semiconductor companies took a gamble on ASML’s immersion lithography machines to avoid buying machines from Japan, kind of a similar situation between the US and China today. Even though it was a gamble, ASML machines turned out to be a big advancement for smaller nodes compared to machines from Canon and Nikon at the time. Today China has the scientific and engineering talent to come up with a similar equivalent. I think they will come up with some innovations,” he said.

China is well placed to use innovations to develop advanced chips for artificial intelligence, machine learning and other emerging applications. While it is hard to know what these innovations will be, advancements in EDA and semiconductor machine technologies promise to place China in the front seat.

China set to achieve 14 nm breakthrough in 2022

China consumes about 70% of global semiconductor production. But the country’s plans to mass produce 14 nm chips next year within the country is likely to make China the biggest semiconductor supplier globally.

www.totaltele.com

 

[Rajendra Chola]

I just check that news article. It's very dubious. It's more like Tata Electronic merely investing in the ATMP side (Assembly, Testing, Marking, Packaging). So it will not be chip fab.

Honestly i dont know enough about the topic. If I find out more, I will post it.

The ATMP side is for electronics manufacturing. The article mentioned "and semiconductors". The CEO obviously just read out what he knows and has less idea on the layers involved in semiconductor manufacturing and he doesn't need to know the technicalities.


I have enough contempt against Indian MNC even though they were rich enough in 90' and early 2000, they did not take a damn worthwhile effort towards electronics manufacturing or chip manufacturing. Companies which started in the last 10 years have raised twice or thrice the valuation of the 100 history old companies. Just proves my point that Indian MNC are purely after consumer profits and did not think of overall vision which could have been beneficial to the company and the nation in large.

I mean a company like Foxconn was probably making 17B dollar revenue back in 2004. Tata made some 40B revenue in the same timeframe. Now Foxconn makes 180B in revenue and Tata around 112B. They made some stupid acquisition in Europe instead of developing Indian steel sector. It took nearly 11 years to incorporate technologies from Jaguar Land Rover and incorporate them in local Tata cars cos they didn't want to spend money or provide quality to Indian consumers. Same goes for Birla,Bajaj, Godrej etc etc.

India is inexplicably part of Chip and Hardware/Firmware design ecosystem. All top chip companies design stuff here, create protos in US Fabs and then send it here for testing. So it's not like we don't have a base. Infact we even have quite a lot of Chip companies start ups in Bangalore and Chennai. Jio was looking to acquire a company in chip design around 2 years back and they did. Smaller one but with design experience for bigger guys.

Foundary is capital intensive. We need not have an foundary for top end chips but for basic MCs, timers, oscillators, memory, communication etc. We don't even need to design them. Very very older design which are still being used today, the company can pay a very nominal license fee and start manufacturing in your own damn name. There are lots of ICs like that. The problem being India needs an huge electronics manufacturing base to make use of the chips being manufactured. We do, and we have improved by leaps and bounds in that field. But the constant complaint I hear is, India is still not cheap enough to manufacture. We need to do more.

But I hope these tiny steps and we have a one huge foundry in the next 10 years. It's better than nothing obviously.

 

[trishna_amrta]

I have enough contempt against Indian MNC even though they were rich enough in 90' and early 2000, they did not take a damn worthwhile effort towards electronics manufacturing or chip manufacturing. Companies which started in the last 10 years have raised twice or thrice the valuation of the 100 history old companies. Just proves my point that Indian MNC are purely after consumer profits and did not think of overall vision which could have been beneficial to the company and the nation in large.

I'm guessing they need profit quick enough for paying the bank loan. As you had stated yourself, foundry is capital intensive. And investment in chip fab require more than just capital, but also sense of long term confidence from the investors toward their investment beneficiary.

Foundary is capital intensive. We need not have an foundary for top end chips but for basic MCs, timers, oscillators, memory, communication etc.

Aren't basic MC is what currently in shortageAlthough there is a spike of demand for high-end GPU during this Great Plague of China period, it's just a spike rather than something that look like mountain range in the sales chart. Customer who bought those high-end GPU will be using it for at least 3 years (or longer) before they need a new one.

Anyway, I'm glad there is someone here who know and have industrial perspective in semiconductor.

 

[Rajendra Chola]

I'm guessing they need profit quick enough for paying the bank loan. As you had stated yourself, foundry is capital intensive. And investment in chip fab require more than just capital, but also sense of long term confidence from the investors toward their investment beneficiary.


Aren't basic MC is what currently in shortageAlthough there is a spike of demand for high-end GPU during this Great Plague of China period, it's just a spike rather than something that look like mountain range in the sales chart. Customer who bought those high-end GPU will be using it for at least 3 years (or longer) before they need a new one.

Anyway, I'm glad there is someone here who know and have industrial perspective in semiconductor.

I am not sure on that count. Automobile processors have to be qualified. Basic ones simply can't be used if I am right. Cos it needs to pass some amount of thermal and vibration tests.
I had a chance to work once on a comm device to be mounted on a UAV, and the main motherboard PCB actually failed the vibration tests. The parts and chips came out. I am sure there is an standard for MCs to be used in automotive industry. But again since the volume is "low" for automotive industry, some 1/2 locations might have shortage resulting in no production. But anyway I am not sure on what exact chip/company is causing the shortage.

 

[Gundala]

I am not sure what cause the chip shortage, but late last year I know we having issues shipping items (large items) to certain country up north. Its not easy finding vessels to ship it in time to our liking. Seems like there are less scheduled vessels to certain destination compare to before Covid. Maybe combination of some factors resulting to that shortage.

 

[Nilgiri]

I have enough contempt against Indian MNC even though they were rich enough in 90' and early 2000, they did not take a damn worthwhile effort towards electronics manufacturing or chip manufacturing. Companies which started in the last 10 years have raised twice or thrice the valuation of the 100 history old companies. Just proves my point that Indian MNC are purely after consumer profits and did not think of overall vision which could have been beneficial to the company and the nation in large.

Looking back its combination of issues.

A huge part in itself originates from why India could not attract bulk electronics manufacture to begin with (that provides lot of the demand locally for MC and PCB etc):

- A sheer lack of raw amount of blue collar workforce and the effect on proper labour availability/ease (given the overall education quantity and quality imparted to the cohorts since 1947).

- Critical lack of blue collar "control + mgmt" labour....i.e folks monitoring and process managing the line on factory. What little of this was there, was soaked up into IT boom (which provided more quick returns) at cost of harnessing larger labour pool for productive work (for them).

- Lack of govt incentive (either direct subsidy for 10+ year gestation or full can-do attitude to onshore factories as far as possible) to make use and work with what was there anyway

- No deep reform in rural areas (to push surplus labour there to cities to train into blue collar assembly).

That is all what then gestates time period for corporates to invest into capital for electronics components...and move up the tiers with time) from their end given the raw local demand (for electronic sector at large).

The ball does not rest only in their court....they need to be steered and managed by proper govt policy (before, during and after) w.r.t what the input they have at hand is in the country at scale.

Anyway, I'm glad there is someone here who know and have industrial perspective in semiconductor.

Yes I'm glad I tagged him, and also he came by fairly quick coincidentally