News Indonesia - US - China Relation, and ASEAN. Whats going on?

[trishna_amrta]

In theory yea, but in reality the probability is prety low. Biggest chance is when it enter mid course up, but when it already came down the chance is getting smaller and smaller. The SAM system need to have longer range and altitude to have better chance of intercepting. Imo, on paper off course, S400 is the better all rounder SAM system with various missiles combination avaiable to suit the need but surely not the export version.

You were referring to something else entirely than what I've had stated. I wasn't referring to an ICBM, but to both IRBM and hypersonic weapon which has become more proliferate lately.

With the exception of an ICBM system,

Since you were referring to counter an ICBM system, then the only practical counter is limited within mid-course phase using either Arrow-3 or SM-3. Again, everything has a counter weapon.

 

[Gundala]

You were referring to something else entirely than what I've had stated. I wasn't referring to an ICBM, but to both IRBM and hypersonic weapon which has become more proliferate lately.

Are we talking about IRBM = Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile? If so then they are pretty much the same aside from their range.

Since you were referring to counter an ICBM system, then the only practical counter is limited within mid-course phase using either Arrow-3 or SM-3. Again, everything has a counter weapon.

Balistic Missile must be detected early after launch to counter, and that require satelite surveilance. For balistic missile the counter currently rather popular is "kinetic kill" interceptor or hit to kill type which designed to destroy target by physically slamming into it rather than traditional warhead, which require crazy precission. This is one of the reason why developed country invest technology hit it during its midcourse and not after because they know how low the possibility going to be. Satellite is definetly a must have in this type of engagement and we dont have any atm.

Hypersonic; off course each SAM system will claim able to take down heypersonic missiles but in reality the possibility is still low specially to counter the one that flying low. Seeing the missiles and able to lock on it are 2 different things, to see it coming the SAM def system need AWACS flying 24 hours a day simply because it cant see whats coming over the horizon. WIthout AWACS the best reponse time for the system to lock the target would be when it appear on the horizon, with that kind of speed it will reduce the response time. This is when the man behind the system, Firing protocol, beurocracy, system computation speed and type of missiles to be fired, etc will decide the outcome. And with Hypersonic missiles the chance to be able to fire the second missile if the first one miss is really low.

Yes everything has a counter weapon but to think it will effectively take the threat down with high possibility is against the reality, even with good IADS the possibility remain low to counter certain type of threat. This is why almost every major military naval excersice, missiles testing, there is often shadowed by their adversary (ship or aircraft) to gather telemetry , electronic intelligence from missile, radar signature, etc to have more information how to counter them. In the case of US they have RC-135S Cobra ball.

 

[FPXAllen]

Are we talking about IRBM = Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile? If so then they are pretty much the same aside from their range

Been playing SimpleRockets 2 for the last month or so, and although it doesn't turn me into an expert of any kind, but I believe there are also another differences aside from range and, obviously, dimensions:

To be able to reach the distance of up to halfway around the world, a ballistic missile must reach a much higher altitude compared to the shorter range ones. While exact specifications of each ICBM is understandably being kept secret, but they probably have have a maximum altitude of between 1000 to 2000 km ASL.

Thus, an IRBM only need to reach a much lower altitude, probably between 500 to 1000 km depending on its range.

This makes intercepting an ICBM a much harder thing to do although it's by no means "easy" with IRBM.

 

[trishna_amrta]

Are we talking about IRBM = Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile? If so then they are pretty much the same aside from their range.

Balistic Missile must be detected early after launch to counter, and that require satelite surveilance. For balistic missile the counter currently rather popular is "kinetic kill" interceptor or hit to kill type which designed to destroy target by physically slamming into it rather than traditional warhead, which require crazy precission. This is one of the reason why developed country invest technology hit it during its midcourse and not after because they know how low the possibility going to be. Satellite is definetly a must have in this type of engagement and we dont have any atm.

Hypersonic; off course each SAM system will claim able to take down heypersonic missiles but in reality the possibility is still low specially to counter the one that flying low. Seeing the missiles and able to lock on it are 2 different things, to see it coming the SAM def system need AWACS flying 24 hours a day simply because it cant see whats coming over the horizon. WIthout AWACS the best reponse time for the system to lock the target would be when it appear on the horizon, with that kind of speed it will reduce the response time. This is when the man behind the system, Firing protocol, beurocracy, system computation speed and type of missiles to be fired, etc will decide the outcome. And with Hypersonic missiles the chance to be able to fire the second missile if the first one miss is really low.

Yes everything has a counter weapon but to think it will effectively take the threat down with high possibility is against the reality, even with good IADS the possibility remain low to counter certain type of threat. This is why almost every major military naval excersice, missiles testing, there is often shadowed by their adversary (ship or aircraft) to gather telemetry , electronic intelligence from missile, radar signature, etc to have more information how to counter them. In the case of US they have RC-135S Cobra ball.

*tepok jidat* dech gue

There is something called the law of natural world aka the law of physic. And in rocket related subject, these fine gentlemen have a lot of says ;

 

[trishna_amrta]

Been playing SimpleRockets 2 for the last month or so, and although it doesn't turn me into an expert of any kind, but I believe there are also another differences aside from range and, obviously, dimensions:

To be able to reach the distance of up to halfway around the world, a ballistic missile must reach a much higher altitude compared to the shorter range ones. While exact specifications of each ICBM is understandably being kept secret, but they probably have have a maximum altitude of between 1000 to 2000 km ASL.

Thus, an IRBM only need to reach a much lower altitude, probably between 500 to 1000 km depending on its range.

This makes intercepting an ICBM a much harder thing to do although it's by no means "easy" with IRBM.

Hypersonic weapon is more of a political weapon rather than an actual military practical weapon. It's the same thing with and aircraft carrier, they are merely for political posturing than battlefield effective platform. Which is why I've mention earlier in this thread that our OPFOR do not have effective aircraft carrier.

The deciding factor is not dimension or flight altitude, but its SPEED. Which is why hypersonic weapon is an effective political posturing, albeit they could be counter just like any other cruise missile during their terminal phase where they need to slowing down to supersonic speed in order to acquire target (they will miss if they don't brake during terminal phase)

 

[Umigami]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428545301044883461

 

[Gundala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428545301044883461

nice to see our CG is also there

 

[Umigami]

Indonesian intelligence agency compromised in suspected Chinese hack

Chinese hackers have breached the internal networks of at least ten Indonesian government ministries and agencies, including computers from Indonesia's primary intelligence service, the Badan Intelijen Negara (BIN).

www.google.com

 

[xizhimen]

SCS needs a peaceful settlement for long term purpose, and US won't be a factor in the region in 20-30 years time.

 

[Gary]

SCS needs a peaceful settlement for long term purpose, and US won't be a factor in the region in 20-30 years time.

on the contrary the US will be increasingly important as our security partner

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433886088423251976

 

[xizhimen]

on the contrary the US will be increasingly important as our security partner

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433886088423251976

They can be there for now, but can they be there forever? it's a fast declining power retreating globally. People must be in denial if saying not seeing it happening.

 

[Gary]

They can be there for now, but can they be there forever? it's a fast declining power retreating globally. People must be in denial if not seeing it happening.

there's no retreat, more accurately they're re-positioning.

the US also "retreated" from Vietnam in '75. remember ???

 

[xizhimen]

there's no retreat, more accurately they're re-positioning.

the US also "retreated" from Vietnam in '75. remember ???

They are re positioning cause they can no longer afford their current scale, in 1975 no one was coming close to them but now China is posing to overtake them in economy in less than a decade, in two or 3 decades China will be leading US in a big margin, after economic overtaking, what'll come next? US retreating and relative declining is an unavoidable future event. So it's safe to say in 30 years, US will be no longer a factor in South China Sea region.

You are just being used as their paws now, US will not blink an eye to sell you down the river once they decide no longer play this game.

 

[Gary]

They are re positioning cause they can no longer afford their current scale, in 1975 no one was coming close to them but now China is posing to overtake them in economy in less than a decade, in two or 3 decades China will be leading US in a big margin, after economic overtaking, what'll come next? US retreating and relative declining is an unavoidable future event. So it's safe to say in 30 years, US will be no longer a factor in South China Sea region.

actually retreating from the global scene is what China under Xi is doing right now. China currently are:

1. Isolated
2. Increasingly unpopular with global democracies

with significant headwinds that will curtail China's growth like the ugly demographics problem, red tapes and Xi cracking down on the capitalists.

When Will China Rule the World? Maybe Never​

 

[xizhimen]

actually retreating from the global scene is what China under Xi is doing right now. China currently are:

1. Isolated
2. Increasingly unpopular with global democracies

with significant headwinds that will curtail China's growth like the ugly demographics problem, red tapes and Xi cracking down on the capitalists.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

China's ovetaking US is a consensues even accepted by most western countries and their public, you can be in denial as you like. we'll see. it's not smart to be used by foreign powers, you leaders and politicians seem to know this simple fact much better than you. Have an eye for the future and what fits the nation better long term.

 

[Gary]

China's ovetaking US is a consensues even accepted by most western countries

the consensus in 60s is that the Soviet Union would eventually overtake the US
while the consensus in the 80s is that Japan would overtake the US

both didn't happen.

anyway its good for Indonesia to be closer to countries which doesn't pose a threat to its sovereignty.

 

[xizhimen]

the consensus in 60s is that the Soviet Union would eventually overtake the US

Really, any links to this claim? USSR never managed to have their economy even close to US. So What consensus do you mean?

 

[xizhimen]

anyway its good for Indonesia to be closer to countries which doesn't pose a threat to its sovereignty.

Sure. but you guys better know US just uses you as a paw. They will desert you instantly when bullets start flying. In 1974, they didn't blink an eye to abandon South Vietnam when China decided to take over the Paracel islands from US ally South Vietnam despite repeated begging from their ally, if it was so distant in the past, think about Afghanistan just happened recently.

 

[schuimpjes]

Sure. but you guys better know US just uses you as a paw. They will desert you instantly when bullets start flying. In 1974, they didn't blink an eye to abandon South Vietnam when China decided to take over the Paracel islands from US ally South Vietnam despite repeated begging from their ally, if it was so distant in the past, think about Afghanistan just happened recently.

You can't make us to be pacifist. With or without US, we will against you if you come here aggressively like you do with your Nine Dash Line.

It's not about US or anyone, it's about ourselves. If their concerns and interests are same as us, then they are our friends.

Btw... I haven't a slice idea what your Emperor want actually. Its better to live in peaceful Asia Pacific based on rule of law without lot of warship in SCS ready to launch their missiles, but Xi just enigmatically escalated it.

 

[xizhimen]

You can't make us to be pacifist. With or without US, we will against you if you come here aggressively like you do with your Nine Dash Line.

It's not about US or anyone, it's about ourselves. If their concerns and interests are same as us, then they are our friends.

Btw... I haven't a slice idea what your Emperor want actually. Its better to live in peaceful Asia Pacific based on rule of law without lot of warship in SCS ready to launch their missiles, but Xi just enigmatically escalated it.

That's why I said this region needs a long term peaceful settlement and don't be used as a fool by foreign powers. China hasn't fired a single shot to any foreign countries for 4 decades, we also want peace in this region, it's for everyone's interest besides outside powers who like to see this region burn and destroyed, who also have a good track record in making those disasters happen all around the world.

China and all other claimants have their respective claims unchanged in SCS for decades, for the most part of the history this region was very quiet and peaceful, why suddenly it became a global hotspot and hit headlines everyday? It's because of US and its ulterior motive against China, fools will be used as cannon fodder and paws, smart people can see through the trick and stay calm and keep a cool head.