India Indian Economy + Infra Archive

[Jackdaws]

@Iceream manmohan era saw growth due to policy of vajpayee era , upa 2.0 saw economy worsening due to upa 1.0era

UPA 2.0 saw number of scams. But economy was galloping.

 

[iceream]

I

UPA 2.0 saw number of scams. But economy was galloping.

I detest politician in general what do you think of the pli scheme

 

[Jackdaws]

I

I detest politician in general what do you think of the pli scheme

All schemes are good on paper and this is no exception. Proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's see how it helps the manufacturing sector.

 

[Nilgiri]

UPA 2.0 saw number of scams. But economy was galloping.

UPA 2.0 was when the economy started to really suffer.....due to 08 economic crisis putting halt on the growth model India had latched onto (and not taken proper diversification broadly).

This model was the easy somewhat proven one since 1991....and augmented by Vajpayee admin era (UPA 1.0 did little augmentation, they just rode it out for most part).

But it (1991 post lib model) could not and cannot solve the longer problem gestated in India structurally in cold war. GDP is actually not so relevant of a thing to focus on (given the inflation that makes its way to it regardless).....it is a natural result of several other more important underlying things.

Anyway, UPA 2.0 under MMS shockingly did not come up with any decent solutions for it (this stuff in the "GDP" level of things from govt policy side).....they just bumped up bunch of subsidies and welfare (at cost to capital expenditure) which was the wrong thing to do....given what they did not reform at all in 10 crucial years at helm.

 

[iceream]

UPA 2.0 was when the economy started to really suffer.....due to 08 economic crisis putting halt on the growth model India had latched onto (and not taken proper diversification broadly).

This model was the easy somewhat proven one since 1991....and augmented by Vajpayee admin era (UPA 1.0 did little augmentation, they just rode it out for most part).

But it (1991 post lib model) could not and cannot solve the longer problem gestated in India structurally in cold war. GDP is actually not so relevant of a thing to focus on (given the inflation that makes its way to it regardless).....it is a natural result of several other more important underlying things.

Anyway, UPA 2.0 under MMS shockingly did not come up with any decent solutions for it (this stuff in the "GDP" level of things from govt policy side).....they just bumped up bunch of subsidies and welfare (at cost to capital expenditure) which was the wrong thing to do....given what they did not reform at all in 10 crucial years at helm.

All schemes are good on paper and this is no exception. Proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's see how it helps the manufacturing sector.

What's your thoughts on PLI scheme
How is India's. Manufacturing coming along what should be done next to increase gDP
DO YOU think modi fan make an even simple semi conductor fab in india
What's the state of economy now in your opinion
Are the right steps being taken now ?

 

[Nilgiri]

What this mean I am in bio don't understand economics much

The IT sector in India is not stagnant basically. It is evolving and growing with the time.....judging by the diverse projects it is winning internationally.

 

[Nilgiri]

What's your thoughts on PLI scheme
How is India's. Manufacturing coming along what should be done next to increase gDP
DO YOU think modi fan make an even simple semi conductor fab in india
What's the state of economy now in your opinion
Are the right steps being taken now ?

Ask me all this a year or two from now.

Right now there is too much in flux to make solid predictions/analysis on these.

Covid really did a number on India and world as well.....so lot is quite unsettled, we need to wait for somethings to settle.

PLI is quite a good scheme, but it like GST (and reforms in general) needs to be implemented well and efficiently.

I wish we just had 1000 Gadkari clones running the govt highest level.

 

[Nilgiri]

More of the same, this time Morgan Stanley:

India is on the cusp of a virtuous cycle, says Morgan Stanley

India’s capex to gross domestic product ratio is expected to rise by six percentage points between FY21 and FY26

www.livemint.com

India’s capex to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is expected to rise by six percentage points between FY21 and FY26, it said in a report.

“A virtuous cycle, supported by strong capex and productivity, is taking off in India. Strong rates of growth, coupled with benign macro stability risks, set a positive backdrop for the ratio of corporate profits to GDP to rise. This cycle will be unlike the past decade and more like 2003-07," said the report dated 19 October. The broking firm expects India GDP growth to average 7% in FY23-26. It sees India entering a new profit cycle, which may result in earnings compounding at 20-25% per annum for the next four years. According to Morgan Stanley, the India story stands out now, not only from an absolute perspective, but also from a relative perspective, because of this rise in the ratio of corporate profit to GDP.

(More at link)

It is the kind of thing (capex ratio + investment cycle etc) that one needs to hear from Turkey too to get out of a rut its in @Saithan @UkroTurk 🚬 @Indos @xenon5434 @Anmdt ....rather than repeated blah blah about depreciation = exports (with no understanding on what the elastiticities are governing imports vs exports....not to mention inflation costs and measurements).

TR economy thread is suffering from repetition of this....people have just taken a side and believe what they wanna believe....

IMO, never ever believe anything a govt says (esp if only govt is saying it). That is rule no. 1

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

India's poised to grow like it did in 2003-10, says Jefferies

India's economic growth averaged 8.5% to 9% between 2003 and 2010, up from the 5.5%-to-6% average before that. It said the risk appetite of banks is set to increase as bad loans have fallen - just as they did in 2003-04.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

The Indian economy is poised for a repeat performance of growth last seen between 2003 and 2010 led by corporate deleveraging and profitability, lower bad assets and demand for housing, Jefferies said.

India's economic growth averaged 8.5% to 9% between 2003 and 2010, up from the 5.5%-to-6% average before that.

The US brokerage analysed six key components of the economic cycle: Demand for housing, drop in bank NPAs, corporate profitability, interest rates, corporate leverage and capex revival.

It said the risk appetite of banks is set to increase as bad loans have fallen - just as they did in 2003-04.

View attachment 33756


"Between 1997 and 2004, bank gross NPA ratio moved down from 16% to 8%. Similarly, the Indian banking system's gross NPA has moved down from 12% in March 2018 to 7% now and alongside a provisioning jump, the net NPAs are down 59%," Jefferies said. "Provision costs are off drastically. While banks are still risk-averse, we believe that the stage is now set for an increase in risk appetite. Strong capability and seven-year high RoEs further support lending growth."

Although the broader capital expenditure cycle has not turned yet, it is likely to follow the housing cycle with a lag.

"The housing cycle improvement is visible. A historical analysis since 1996/97 suggests that Indian housing up-cycles and down-cycles typically last for 6-8 years," Jeffries said.

"The period between 2012/13 and 2020 was a prolonged down-cycle and 2021 is the first year of an upcycle, with a visible uptick in volumes and pricing. Housing construction is a large job creator and has multiple economic linkages capable of driving an economic upturn."

This along with robust expansion in corporate profitability will push up growth. Annual corporate profit growth was a poor 0.4% between FY11 and FY20, but has increased to 51% between FY20 and FY22.

Jefferies expects profit growth to increase further to 15% between FY22 and FY24, led by the financials and other cyclical sectors.

Companies have also used the slowdown in the last six years to deleverage as a result of which the debt to equity ratio for 600-plus non-financial companies has come off from 1 times to 0.7 times, creating space for the next economic upcycle.

Although interest rates are set to rise from current record lows, it is unlikely to hit the economic recovery despite a rise in yields - as it did in the 2003-2010 economic upcycle. "Corporate investment is still sluggish as capacity utilisation and risk appetite is low. Property uptick should help reduce risk averseness. Overall, the broader capex upturn should follow over the next 4-6 quarters," the US brokerage said.

India should try to attract more companies that wanna move out of CN due to trade war and high labor cost.

 

[iceream]

The IT sector in India is not stagnant basically. It is evolving and growing with the time.....judging by the diverse projects it is winning internationally.

It's bad for our neighbours as they call us IT colloies but now it's a high value job?

 

[Turko]

More of the same, this time Morgan Stanley:

India is on the cusp of a virtuous cycle, says Morgan Stanley

India’s capex to gross domestic product ratio is expected to rise by six percentage points between FY21 and FY26

www.livemint.com

India’s capex to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is expected to rise by six percentage points between FY21 and FY26, it said in a report.

“A virtuous cycle, supported by strong capex and productivity, is taking off in India. Strong rates of growth, coupled with benign macro stability risks, set a positive backdrop for the ratio of corporate profits to GDP to rise. This cycle will be unlike the past decade and more like 2003-07," said the report dated 19 October. The broking firm expects India GDP growth to average 7% in FY23-26. It sees India entering a new profit cycle, which may result in earnings compounding at 20-25% per annum for the next four years. According to Morgan Stanley, the India story stands out now, not only from an absolute perspective, but also from a relative perspective, because of this rise in the ratio of corporate profit to GDP.

(More at link)

It is the kind of thing (capex ratio + investment cycle etc) that one needs to hear from Turkey too to get out of a rut its in @Saithan @UkroTurk 🚬 @Indos @xenon5434 @Anmdt ....rather than repeated blah blah about depreciation = exports (with no understanding on what the elastiticities are governing imports vs exports....not to mention inflation costs and measurements).

TR economy thread is suffering from repetition of this....people have just taken a side and believe what they wanna believe....

IMO, never ever believe anything a govt says (esp if only govt is saying it). That is rule no. 1

" CAPEX " capital expenditure???!! Where's the money in Turkey bra? Who would give us credit with those interest rates? lenders think interest rates are too low, borrowers think they are too high.
We are lack of capital.
Neither Banks give credits nor Bosses eager to own money.
Factories haven't bought new technology for decade.

 

[Lonewolf]

It's bad for our neighbours as they call us IT colloies but now it's a high value job?

It always was , a call center employ earn much more than their per capita , so better than unemployed .

But hey ! Egoistic neighbours can't understand that

 

[Lonewolf]

India should try to attract more companies that wanna move out of CN due to trade war and high labor cost.

Happening but our infra gap needs to be plugged

 

[iceream]

More of the same, this time Morgan Stanley:

India is on the cusp of a virtuous cycle, says Morgan Stanley

India’s capex to gross domestic product ratio is expected to rise by six percentage points between FY21 and FY26

www.livemint.com

India’s capex to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is expected to rise by six percentage points between FY21 and FY26, it said in a report.

“A virtuous cycle, supported by strong capex and productivity, is taking off in India. Strong rates of growth, coupled with benign macro stability risks, set a positive backdrop for the ratio of corporate profits to GDP to rise. This cycle will be unlike the past decade and more like 2003-07," said the report dated 19 October. The broking firm expects India GDP growth to average 7% in FY23-26. It sees India entering a new profit cycle, which may result in earnings compounding at 20-25% per annum for the next four years. According to Morgan Stanley, the India story stands out now, not only from an absolute perspective, but also from a relative perspective, because of this rise in the ratio of corporate profit to GDP.

(More at link)

It is the kind of thing (capex ratio + investment cycle etc) that one needs to hear from Turkey too to get out of a rut its in @Saithan @UkroTurk 🚬 @Indos @xenon5434 @Anmdt ....rather than repeated blah blah about depreciation = exports (with no understanding on what the elastiticities are governing imports vs exports....not to mention inflation costs and measurements).

TR economy thread is suffering from repetition of this....people have just taken a side and believe what they wanna believe....

IMO, never ever believe anything a govt says (esp if only govt is saying it). That is rule no. 1

At least tell me your thoughts on the current state of economy

 

[Nilgiri]

At least tell me your thoughts on the current state of economy

Bad but improving....this year needs lot more stabilising for rest of it.

You are asking me if guy that is getting out of bed is ready for a jog....we need to see lot more stuff in between.

 

[Nilgiri]

India should try to attract more companies that wanna move out of CN due to trade war and high labor cost.

I agree bro, actually I am involved somewhat (consultancy wise in spare time for some friends) with Indian "unicorn" that is right now in process of bringing some decent manufacturing in its niche to Indian shores from PRC.

I know cantonese very well (growing up in HK), it helps....along with connection of HK + Taiwan friends of mine....thave have growing axe to grind with CCP.

In my 40s I will be in position to do even more depending how this all goes.

In the end its matter of applying right pressure in right places over right amount of time and as many times as needed.

It is part of larger reason why CCP-bots in places are very lacking in mental department....there is a cpl predictable complexes and VPN tunnels that funnel and transmit them....all driven by fear and stupidity (mass human wave like you say).

PLA sappers suck bro....is really a very true statement in the end in more ways than most imagine

Whatever I cannot direct India way (in this stuff)....I always recommend to try Vietnam (to same ppl) btw.

Vietnam is fast becoming my 2nd favourite big country in Asia lol. There is lot for India to learn from Vietnam's recent successes.

 

[Nilgiri]

Bengaluru most sought after hub for GCCs in India: Nasscom report

For India to grow as a global hub, GCCs, industry bodies, and the government will need to bridge the skill demand-supply gap and continue to focus on upskilling/reskilling

www.livemint.com

More stuff driving butthurt among some (combined with unicorn news)....

Can confidently say they will not be doing this even in 50 years time...and results will speak for themselves this decade even more and the next ones after even more so.

Why Indians "banter" with the butthurt types means those Indians have an inferiority butthurt complex themselves (and often play this out on fellow Indians quite recklessly too).

Do better things with your time.....leave trash-heap complex to fester with itself and CCP-bot and islamist vultures that love that stuff.

A sad reflection on us (of its own kind) squandering our potential needlessly too.

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

I agree bro, actually I am involved somewhat (consultancy wise in spare time for some friends) with Indian "unicorn" that is right now in process of bringing some decent manufacturing in its niche to Indian shores from PRC.

I know cantonese very well (growing up in HK), it helps....along with connection of HK + Taiwan friends of mine....thave have growing axe to grind with CCP.

In my 40s I will be in position to do even more depending how this all goes.

In the end its matter of applying right pressure in right places over right amount of time and as many times as needed.

It is part of larger reason why CCP-bots in places are very lacking in mental department....there is a cpl predictable complexes and VPN tunnels that funnel and transmit them....all driven by fear and stupidity (mass human wave like you say).

PLA sappers suck bro....is really a very true statement in the end in more ways than most imagine

Whatever I cannot direct India way (in this stuff)....I always recommend to try Vietnam (to same ppl) btw.

Vietnam is fast becoming my 2nd favourite big country in Asia lol. There is lot for India to learn from Vietnam's recent successes.

We have some different in culture (India is Hindu, VN basically is still Confucian culture ), but I think India still can learn something like :

1. Making more friends than more enemies (VN made friend with everyone Russia-CN-US-EU-JP-SK-Aussie etc) even many of them invaded, attack, destroyed VN in the past, but we make friend for Win-Win deal, such as FTA deal with EU, TPP deal with Aussie-JP (US withdrew), not WIn-Lose deal like US-JP Plaza accord in 1985.

2. Love our countries, work hard for the benefit of our countries, not for the benefit of a group (the rich). VN can make Vinfast car, Viettel 5G bcs rich VNese think that they must try hard to make VN become rich & developed nation. If only they (VInfats, Viettel bosses ) are rich, it wouldn't be sustainable way.

3. Have some true friends (India, Soviet/Russia/Cuba) : a friend in need is a friend indeed, even Soviet collapsed, but we never abandon our Cuba brother, we support them food everytime they need cand Cuba hep us Covid vaccine now.

4. Train soldiers and make them can fight till die or at least till the last bullet before surrender, even when facing agaisnt strong enemies that 5, 6 times stronger or (even 10 times like US during VN war )than VN

etc ....

 

[Nilgiri]

2 million tons is nothing actually for a country like India

Supply-hit power cos tap Indonesian miners for coal - Times of India

India Business News: Kolkata: As coal stocks nearing an all-time low, some of the state power utilities along with some non-power coal users have sent SOS to Indonesian co.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

We have some long coal trains in India, the fuel crisis seems to be easing now:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451224289143767040

 

[Indos]

We have some long coal trains in India, the fuel crisis seems to be easing now:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451224289143767040

Where does India get the imported coal from ? 2/3 China coal import comes from Indonesia.

Man, that Indonesia coal producer is now start paying a lot of their debt during this period

------------------------------------------------------

Largest Installment, Bakrie Group Mining Issuer Pays 15th Debt Rp1.1 T ​

The total debt that has been paid by the Bakrie Group entity, Bumi Resources, consists of principal tranche A of US$ 282.4 million and interest of US$ 161.4 million.

Cicilan Terbesar, Emiten Tambang Grup Bakrie Bayar Utang ke-15 Rp1,1 T - Korporasi Katadata.co.id

Total utang yang sudah dibayar entitas Grup Bakrie, Bumi Resources terdiri atas, pokok tranche A sebesar US$ 282,4 juta dan bunga sebesar US$ 161,4 juta.

katadata.co.id