Faced with many difficulties, China's economy may decelerate sharply

Gary

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What caused China's economy to grow only 4.9% in the third quarter?
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China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.9% in the third quarter, due to weaker-than-expected industrial output growth and other reasons. This growth rate of the world's second largest economy disappointed observers...
Dỡ than từ tàu chở than tại một cảng biển ở Liêu Ninh hôm 14/10/2021 - Ảnh: Getty/CNBC.

Unloading coal from a coal tanker at a seaport in Liaoning on October 14, 2021 - Photo: Getty/CNBC.

Data released by the General Statistics Office of China (NBS) this morning (October 18) showed that the country's GDP increased by 4.9% over the same period last year. Previously, experts polled by Reuters news agency had forecast a 5.2% increase.China's industrial output grew only 3.1% in September, much lower than the 4.5% growth forecast by experts. The slowdown in industrial production is believed to be a major cause of China's GDP growth falling short of expectations.

"Since the start of the third quarter, risks and challenges at home and abroad have increased," NBS spokesman Fu Linghui told a news conference. Mr. Fu said the power shortage had had a "definite effect" on production, but said the economic impact of the power shortage crisis was "controllable".

Many factories in China had to suspend production at the end of September due to soaring coal prices and electricity shortages forcing localities to suddenly cut power. The Chinese government then demanded to increase the mining output of the coal mines and ensure the supply of electricity.

Recently released data also shows that Chinese enterprises are currently hesitant to pour capital into new projects. Fixed asset investment in the first three months of the year in the country increased by 7.3% year-on-year, lower than the forecast for a 7.9% increase.

"Investment activity weakened due to tight credit conditions," said Chaoping Zhu, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Zhu estimates that year-on-year, China's fixed-asset investment in September fell 2.5% year-on-year, mainly due to a 3.5% drop in development investment. real estate projects.

Real estate and related industries account for about a quarter of China's GDP, according to estimates by credit rating agency Moody's. Over the past 18 months, Beijing has stepped up efforts to reduce debt in this area.


In such a context, real estate giant Evergrande plunged into a debt crisis, warned of the risk of default and missed interest payments on two lots of USD bonds. On Friday, China's central bank said that Evergrande was an isolated case and that most of the country's other real estate companies remained stable.

Speaking on October 18, Mr. Fu acknowledged that the deceleration of the real estate sector in the third quarter made the industry's contribution to economic growth also decrease. However, the official is optimistic that the impact on overall economic growth will be limited.
Tốc độ tăng trưởng GDP hàng quý của Trung Quốc so với cùng kỳ năm trước.


China's quarterly GDP growth rate year-on-year.

The latest data shows that Chinese consumers keep spending, despite the impact of anti-Covid restrictions and the country's auto sales have fallen for the fourth straight month. Retail sales in September rose 4.4% year-on-year, far exceeding the 3.3% increase forecast by experts surveyed by Reuters.

China's urban unemployment rate in September was 4.9%. For 16-24 year olds, the unemployment rate is much higher than the general figure, up to 14.6%.

Recently, a series of banks have cut China GDP growth forecasts for 2021 due to power shortages and efforts to reduce debt in the country's real estate industry, in addition to other sources of pressure such as weak consumption.

“China once led the world in economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, that recovery is losing momentum," said China Renaissance expert Bruce Pang, pointing to a number of obstacles to China's economic growth, from sporadic Covid-19 infections to efforts to country to reduce carbon emissions.

“On the issue of supervision regulations, we believe that the authorities will better manage the speed and intensity of the campaign to strengthen supervision, to ensure the achievement of key economic and social development goals. set out for this year and the next 5-10 years,” Mr. Pang told CNBC. “Officials can better communicate with the market about the motives behind policy moves and signal in advance about future surveillance ‘hotspots’. We think so.”

It's been sliding down since Q2… probably will continue sliding down to Q4
 

Viva_vietnamm

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It's been sliding down since Q2… probably will continue sliding down to Q4
China economy today relies on polluting industries such as steelmaking and aluminum smelting and the world's demand for steel and aluminum is still very high.

If China wlling to exchange pollution for growth, then they may still grow in Q4. But everyone will realize that CN is just a country trying to survive, even by exchanging pollution for growth, not a "super power" nation as they brag day after day anymore.
 

Gary

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China's 4.9% growth is still much better than US 2% and Vietnam's -6.7%, no?
Not really, the US is a bigger economy so just 2% amount to much more than China's.

OTOH it seems China won't outpace the US GDP like many predicted.

 

Viva_vietnamm

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China's 4.9% growth is still much better than US 2% and Vietnam's -6.7%, no?
No. iPhone 13 willing to delay its delivery times and wait till we can re-open the factories while Iphone will quit CN like Samsung if CNese stop buying those expensive Iphone .

It mean VN's GDP will bounce back to normal as all factories willing to wait till we can re-open.

---------------
"Assemblers can still produce the new iPhones, but there's a supply gap [in] that the inventories of the camera modules are running low," one of the executives with direct knowledge told Nikkei Asia. "There's nothing we can do but to monitor the situation in Vietnam every day and wait for them to ramp up the output
 
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xizhimen

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Not really, the US is a bigger economy so just 2% amount to much more than China's.
No, China added more to GDP than US.

"In the third quarter of 2021, the total nominal GDP reached 29.1 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), which is roughly equal to 4.55 trillion US dollars at the current exchange rate of 6.4. In the past two days, the United States has just announced its report card, which is less than 5.8 trillion U.S. dollars. In other words, China’s total GDP has reached 78% of that of the United States.

This year is not over yet, judging from the resuts of the three quarters, the gap between China and the United States are expected to shrink by five percentage points in 2021.

If China can narrow the GDP gap with US by 5% each year, China's total GDP will catch up with the United States by 2026."
 

xizhimen

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OTOH it seems China won't outpace the US GDP like many predicted.
Different researchers have different opinions, the analysis of what you posted dosne't carry more authority than tons of articles which said the opposite.
 

xizhimen

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Not really, the US is a bigger economy so just 2% amount to much more than China's.
今年前三季度,中国GDP增量已经高达2.38万亿美元,中美两国前三季度经济规模已经缩小了9500亿美元左右。

in the first three quarters of this year, China’s GDP growth has reached US$2.38 trillion, and the economies of China and the United States have shrunk by about US$950 billion in the first three quarters.

It's expected that China's GDP will account for over 80% of that of US by the end of this year.
 

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No, China added more to GDP than US.

"In the third quarter of 2021, the total nominal GDP reached 29.1 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), which is roughly equal to 4.55 trillion US dollars at the current exchange rate of 6.4. In the past two days, the United States has just announced its report card, which is less than 5.8 trillion U.S. dollars. In other words, China’s total GDP has reached 78% of that of the United States.

This year is not over yet, judging from the resuts of the three quarters, the gap between China and the United States are expected to shrink by five percentage points in 2021.

If China can narrow the GDP gap with US by 5% each year, China's total GDP will catch up with the United States by 2026."

source ??
 
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Gary

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今年前三季度,中国GDP增量已经高达2.38万亿美元,中美两国前三季度经济规模已经缩小了9500亿美元左右。

in the first three quarters of this year, China’s GDP growth has reached US$2.38 trillion, and the economies of China and the United States have shrunk by about US$950 billion in the first three quarters.

It's expected that China's GDP will account for over 80% of that of US by the end of this year.
source??
 

Gary

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You can use google translation if you don't know Chinese


The US at the end of 2021 would likely be a $24T economy, if the recent Q4 suggestion are correct, now they are at $23.1 T

that means the US added $4T from last yeat $20T GDP (nominal)

China OTOH, will only add $2T from last year $14.7T to the estimated $16.7-16.8T

f77316aad87695f6887bc8095c342da1.jpg
 

xizhimen

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The US at the end of 2021 would likely be a $24T economy, if the recent Q4 suggestion are correct, now they are at $23.1 T

that means the US added $4T from last yeat $20T GDP (nominal)

China OTOH, will only add $2T from last year $14.7T to the estimated $16.7-16.8T

f77316aad87695f6887bc8095c342da1.jpg
source?
 

xizhimen

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Gary

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My own sources clearly says the gap between the economies of China and the United States have shrunk by about US$950 billion in the first three quarters.
yes but your source clearly shows this

f77316aad87695f6887bc8095c342da1.jpg


btw the US had already surpass $23T up from last year $20T
 

xizhimen

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yes but your source clearly shows this

f77316aad87695f6887bc8095c342da1.jpg


btw the US had already surpass $23T up from last year $20T
The results are shown in the article, China is fast shrinking the gap. And now US 's economy is in a very bad shape, we'll see what would happen in the last quarter.
 

Viva_vietnamm

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The local treasury/Budget, is empty, the bus driver is owed 8 months' wages
15:15, 04/11/21

Chinese media reported that bus drivers in Pingdingshan City, Henan Province went on strike on Monday (November 1) because they had not received wages for eight months. This problem is attributed to the fact that the financial situation in many Chinese localities may have been exhausted.

"Company leader: Please disband.


Woman: CEO Lan, do your words count?

Company leader: If I don't keep my word, can you slap me next time?

Woman: Okay, I won't slap you, just keep your word.

A video circulating online shows a woman standing in front of a bus, having a heated argument with a group of company leaders. Another woman was filming and consulting a leader and asked him to fulfill his promise [pay salary].

By comparing images online, a reporter from Radio Free Asia (RFA) said that the company leader called 'General Director Lan' in the video is Mr. Lan Hoi (Lan Hui) - Secretary of the Party Committee. cum Chairman of Binh Dinh Son Public Transport Company Limited.

In another video, a group of employees squatted in front of the company's parking lot, trying to stop a bus from leaving, some of them quite agitated.

Debt of salary of civil servants and public employees is prolonged
The publication 'Tan Hoang Ha' of Jinan Daily quoted netizens as revealing, bus drivers and employees of Binh Dinh Son public bus company, a 100% state-owned company in Ha province. Nam, went on a collective strike and demanded that the company pay workers' wages.

According to a driver who was demanding wages during the strike, Binh Dinh Son company owed the bus driver salary for 8 months, owed the salaries of other logistics staff for more than 1 year, their social security money was only paid. paid until 2017.

The company claims that it will pay 4 months salary to all employees within a week, but it is not known whether the employees will receive the promised salary or if this salary will be paid. Can it be converted to cash? Converting to cash means that the company can pay wages in kind, something other than yuan (CNY).

On Tuesday (November 2), The Paper quoted an employee of the Binh Dinh Son City Citizens Hotline as confirming that the local bus had indeed stopped working on Monday. bus lines resumed on Tuesday, after a day. The Binh Son City Traffic Office has stepped in and related matters are currently being coordinated.



Public information shows that Binh Dinh Son Public Transport Company was established in 1958 and is a state-owned public welfare enterprise primarily engaged in urban public transport. In 2012 and 2020, employees of this company reported 19 times of "persistent salary debt problems".

Why is the government so late?
After the incident broke out, many netizens expressed anger. Most netizens blamed the local government for this situation because this is a local government business.

However, Zou Tao, a financial commentator based in Shenzhen, told RFA that the authorities are probably not unwilling to help, but that they themselves are really "short of money".

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($174 billion) into the financial system to rescue the Chinese economy, which has been plunging because of the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic.
The coffers of many local governments in China have been empty. (Image: Getty Images)
"Binh Dinh Son is a coal-producing city. Coal accounts for a high proportion of local budget revenue. However, the state has recently introduced policies to keep coal prices down... If local governments don't have it, money, they can only prioritize resources to pay civil servants or some big projects."

Of course, the bus drivers and staff here are not civil servants, and these are not the big projects that can immediately help the local source of revenue or simply disburse the budget to increase the income. GDP performance for local government.

However, Mr. Zou Tao analyzed that Chinese urban people in general rely heavily on public transport. Once the public transport system is shut down, production and many people's lives will be severely affected, with the risk of erupting into mass incidents that threaten local officials.

This case is just a slice reflecting the tight and tense financial situation of localities in China. The "City Debt Ratio Ranking" co-published by the new media channel 'Databao' of the Securities Times (STCN) and China's Tencent Finance shows that the debt ratio of most major cities in China The country has already passed the warning threshold, while the debt ratios of some less developed cities are even more shocking.

Empty treasury/Budget, local government debt sets new record

According to a recent data, the financial revenue of 31 provinces and cities nationwide in the second quarter of China was negative, only Shanghai was positive. Even the traditionally high-income provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang are in dire straits. It is not difficult to see that these provinces are being rescued by the central government.

In fact, the province's government and state-owned enterprises are not able to pay salaries for civil servants, public employees, and laborers. There have been governments in many localities that are heavily indebted and cannot even pay teachers' salaries. Recently, teachers and civil servants in Liaoning, Henan, and Anhui took to the streets demanding pay. The missing salary from 2007 to now is just over 70 million CNY, but the government can't afford it, what could be the cause?

During the recent flood in Henan, the government announced a grant of CNY 50 to each farmer who had "no income". "If a farmer's family has a dead pig, they will be compensated CNY 80 each." This amount is pitifully small compared to the damage farmers suffer, and ridiculously small for a country with the second largest economy in the world.



Netizens have given a lot of evidence and inferences that: The government ordered the discharge of reservoir water without notifying the public. If the accident is due to negligence in the performance of official duties, then they should normally stand up to compensate at the market price. If the treasury is full, why can't the government be generous once, while reducing the pressure of foreign criticism but also gaining popularity? Is the CCP's stinginess here proof that they can't afford to compensate?

Meanwhile, local debt from special bond issuance has just set a new record. In the first 10 months of 2021, the scale of new debt issuance by local governments surpassed CNY 6.48 trillion, higher than CNY 6.44 trillion of debt issuance in the whole of 2020. Local government debt China's side has officially set a new historical record.

 

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