Bloomberg named the problem for the invasion of Ukraine
27 November 2021,
Российской армии придется увеличить свою группировку, чтобы добиться значительного численного преимущества, говорят эксперты.
korrespondent.net
The Russian army will have to increase its force in order to achieve a significant numerical advantage, experts say.
Analysts interviewed by Bloomberg suggested that in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the operation would begin no earlier than January due to weather conditions and poor road conditions, RBC writes on November 27.
For example, the agency refers to the expert of the Jamestown Foundation, Pavel Felgenhauer, who told reporters that "this time of year we have Rasputitsa (this is the word used by Bloomberg), that is, dirt."
In his opinion, in the event of an offensive, Russian units will need to bypass the Ukrainian grouping in the Donbas along the flanks, and then gain a foothold in their positions.
"To achieve this, tanks and other military equipment will have to move on black soil, which is not possible now. But as soon as the frosts hit, they will be able to go wherever they want," the expert said.
In addition, according to Felgenhauer, the Russian army will have to increase its grouping in order to achieve a significant numerical advantage (2-3 times). In his opinion, "not all the necessary units have been deployed to the Ukrainian border yet."
In turn, the former NATO adviser on Russia, Andrew Monaghan, suggested that the strengthening of the Russian military presence on the Ukrainian border may be due to Moscow's dissatisfaction with how the terms of the Minsk agreement on the settlement in Donbas are being respected.
He pointed out that Russia disagrees with how Ukraine is implementing this agreement, and therefore believes that if diplomacy does not work, then the military should get involved.
At the end of October, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the use by the military of the Turkish Bayraktar attack drone in the Donbas. Moscow called this a violation of the Minsk agreements and Kiev's preparation for the return of Donbass by force.
Shortly after reports of the use of a combat drone in the Western media, a series of publications appeared that Russia was again concentrating troops and military equipment closer to the Ukrainian border. The West suspected Moscow of preparing a new invasion and sent destroyers to the Black Sea for exercises, in which Ukraine also took part.