Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Vergennes

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Meanwhile the russian army has released a video titled "Logistics support for a special military operation"

 

Vergennes

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Another SU25 downed,pilot KIA.

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My little analysis of Russian and Ukrainian armies based on two weeks of war.

Russians have quite well modernized tanks and modern jets. But their jets lack target pods and guided bombs. Even in their own propaganda video there are only dumb bombs:


Thats why whenever Russian jets want to hit some military target they need to come low and became a target for MANPADS.

Russian soldiers lack ceramic vests, knee pads, red dot sights and most important night googles. Russian army is simply unable to lead night offensives which is a standard mode for Western armies.

Russian army does not have normal divisions. Instead they use BTG - battalion tactical groups. Thats very bad for coordination.

The initial Russuan tactics was to advance rapidly from all directions and shock the Ukrainians. As result wheeled vehicles came in front and tanks lagged behind, huge number of wheeled vehicles were destroyed and later significant number of tanks which were left without support. But in south that tactics however worked not bad.

Now Russians came back to their usual modus operandi: slowly wiping everything. The strong side of Russia is that they have very low sensitivity to losses.

There is very little i can tell about the Ukrainian army. It looks to me more like some rebel force rather a conventional army. They can defend territory, make ambushes, but unable to lead mobile warfare. Their air force, air defence, artillery is amature at most.
This map is good illustration of my words:

243070_0.jpg


Russians simply advanced along the roads and after few days just stuck there. Ukrainians dont do any organized counterattacks no attempts to cut and encircle stretched Russian lines. Just guerilla style ambushes.

Ironically Russians used same exactly insane road column tactics in Georgia Ossetia 2008 war:

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And these endless columns managed to shock and scare the Georgians so they just stopped fighting and Russia achieved everything they wanted just in 5 days.

So now they just repeated same in Ukraine. It started good:


Ended not so good:


Also currently fighting is in South/Eastern Russian speaking part of Ukraine. Putin thought population will welcome him there. But it was not the case.

Kharkiv was one of the most pro Russian cities in Ukraine in 2014 and now it is doing the most fierce resistance to Russians.
 

Vergennes

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What Russia wanted to avoid is just happening before our eyes.

Putin bet on a clean and swift operation,the quick surrender of Ukraine and eastern Ukraine rallying on the Russian cause,welcoming Russian troops as liberators,a quick war that would limit the worldwide outrage and the world's response to the Russian invasion.

The exact opposite happened. Ukraine is resisting,majority Russian speaking towns are the ones resisting the most to Russian assaults,Zelensky didn't surrender,Ukrainians living under Russian occupation haven't welcomed Russian as liberators,but are protesting against the occupier.

Meanwhile the operation is pretty much stalling,what Putin didn't want. Because the longer the operation lasts,the higher the cost is in Russian lives and for Russian finances. (You've got to fund that 200K strong force.... and they can't forever).

The longer the conflict lasts,the more destructions Ukraine will suffer,higher the international outrage would be and higher the sanctions would be,higher the international support for Ukraine would be...

What has Putin achieved so far is ruining Russia's economy,turning Russia into a pariah state on par with North Korea,getting Europe and NATO even more united,making more and neutral countries wanting to join NATO (NATO expension which the Russians do not want) and last but not least showing the whole world the questionnable performance and quality of the Russian armed forces on the ground.
 

goldsilver

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More detail on this video:

"Ukraine claims to have defeated a Russian tank regiment and eliminated its commander in the city of Brovary near the capital Kyiv.

The military intelligence service of the Ukrainian government, which is under the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, posts a video to Twitter showing several military vehicles being struck by artillery fire.

It says the battalion tactical group of the 6th tank regiment of the 90th tank division of the Central Command “suffered significant losses” and the regiment’s commander, Colonel A. Zakharov, was killed."

 

tomthebotfly

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Increasing temperatures around Kyiv, now mostly over the zero threshold. Possible muddy nightmare for the Russians? Forests aren't the only thing that can halt an advance.
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Last Week for comparison, with constant negative 0 temperatures (N/A data was due to fighting around weather station perhaps?)
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