Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Era_shield]

edit: since Vietnam war

Since the China-Vietnam war of 1979, in which China had its butt kicked.

 

[Jagdflieger]

How is the Russian Baltic fleet going to go against the combined might of NATO in the Baltics then ?

i don't see that happening (yet) - the issue was as to Russia having bases for it's Baltic fleet - which they have.

 

[Jagdflieger]

I'm sure significant compromise with Russia had been achieved when the EU+US didn't punish Russia much for annexing Crimea, nor did the Russians face a token of resistance when it tried to interfere in US election, nor did it face any punishment for its extrajudicial killings in Europe against dissidents.

Russia take this European+US compromise as a weakness, hence war started.

Yes encouraged Russia to take further actions - but the war/issue in 2014 and 2022 started due to Russia not willing to accept NATO's continued expansion - specifically not towards Ukraine.

 

[Gary]

Yes encouraged Russia to take further actions - but the war/issue in 2014 and 2022 started due to Russia not willing to accept NATO's continued expansion - specifically not towards Ukraine.

NATO as a military pact NEVER invited any of those member, is NATO to blame here ? Russia is mad because its expansionist intent has been checked. For many countries like Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine, it is a strategic necessity to join NATO to prevent getting absorbed into Russia.

if NATO accepts Ukraine before 24th Feb, this war will not happen, regardless of how people might think.

 

[Jagdflieger]

NATO as a military pact NEVER invited any of those member, is NATO to blame here ? Russia is mad because its expansionist intent has been checked. For many countries like Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine, it is a strategic necessity to join NATO to prevent getting absorbed into Russia.

From Russia's point of view - that is a nonsensical excuse - since clear verbal statements had been made by NATO; not one inch East.
NATO could have said NO - to any applicant if it hadn't had the intention to expand eastwards. Those former East-Block countries could very well have formed an own "neutral" block. - even beholding a clause that NATO would side with them in case of future Russian aggression.

Fact is that NATO and the USA arrogantly thought Russia as a military power (aside from it's nukes) and economic power has vanished and would become some non-influential democratic country - as such they simply took advantage of this situation.
Russia economy had reemerged - especially since Putin - and now he want's what he perceives as a Russian zone of influence.

if NATO accepts Ukraine before 24th Feb, this war will not happen, regardless of how people might think.

But they didn't - and neither NATO nor Ukraine took any convincing/necessary steps to ensure Ukraine's safety. Now both NATO and Ukraine are paying the price for this disastrous neglect - in view of Putin having gotten serious.

 

[Gary]

From Russia's point of view - that is a nonsensical excuse - since clear verbal statements had been made by NATO; not one inch East.

‘There was no promise not to enlarge NATO’ - Harvard Law School

Robert Zoellick, the U.S. diplomat who helped negotiate the end of the Cold War, says Vladimir Putin’s claims about Ukraine are part of a disinformation campaign.

today.law.harvard.edu

Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it well known his antipathy towards NATO, claiming the Alliance took advantage of Russian weakness after the collapse of the Soviet Union in violation of promises allegedly made to Moscow by Western leaders. Steven Pifer argues that no such promises were...

www.brookings.edu

 

[Jagdflieger]

‘There was no promise not to enlarge NATO’ - Harvard Law School

Robert Zoellick, the U.S. diplomat who helped negotiate the end of the Cold War, says Vladimir Putin’s claims about Ukraine are part of a disinformation campaign.

today.law.harvard.edu

Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it well known his antipathy towards NATO, claiming the Alliance took advantage of Russian weakness after the collapse of the Soviet Union in violation of promises allegedly made to Moscow by Western leaders. Steven Pifer argues that no such promises were...

www.brookings.edu

There is no question that the U.S. and NATO — President George Bush and Secretary of State James A. Baker — made a deal in early February 1990 with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze.

According to documents declassified in 2017, the deal essentially was that the Soviets would allow German unification with the written “ironclad guarantees”, that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward”, in the words of James Baker.

The Bush/Baker promises regarding NATO expansion into eastern Europe were kept through the Republican administration.

But in 1998 after the Democrats took over, Bill Clinton’s foreign policy team said “we’re going to cram NATO expansion down the Russian’s throats because Moscow is weak…, The cold war is over for you but not for us.” according to an article in The New York Times.

‘Not One Inch Eastward:’ How the War in Ukraine Could Have Been Prevented Decades Ago

Blake Fleetwood writes about how decades of broken American promises led to the current crisis in Ukraine.

scheerpost.com

 

[Kathirz]

There is no question that the U.S. and NATO — President George Bush and Secretary of State James A. Baker — made a deal in early February 1990 with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze.

According to documents declassified in 2017, the deal essentially was that the Soviets would allow German unification with the written “ironclad guarantees”, that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward”, in the words of James Baker.

The Bush/Baker promises regarding NATO expansion into eastern Europe were kept through the Republican administration.

But in 1998 after the Democrats took over, Bill Clinton’s foreign policy team said “we’re going to cram NATO expansion down the Russian’s throats because Moscow is weak…, The cold war is over for you but not for us.” according to an article in The New York Times.

‘Not One Inch Eastward:’ How the War in Ukraine Could Have Been Prevented Decades Ago

Blake Fleetwood writes about how decades of broken American promises led to the current crisis in Ukraine.

scheerpost.com

Looking at the events from an imperialist point of view everything could match, even a comment in a hallway could be a good reason to invade a sovereign country after breaking most fundamental international laws and treaties.

If we just look to the world map we can see how big is Russia.... and how difficult to defend could be having borders with 14 countries... we can understand why part of it's security strategy is having buffer countries under its control sphere, a good example is Belarus.
For not losing that buffer you can't let that them to prosper above you, so we could imagine the job Russia was doing in Ukraine for years, bribing politicians, brainwashing population, hindering their social integration, constantly threatening them, etc.

But I can't understand some people to play others for fools. So If I live in a international recognized country why I can't have a real democracy? Why I can't take my own political decisions and join any economic or political alliance for the sole purpose of develop my country and increase my prosperity?? Some other country will not accept it? Is the empire not feeling secure losing buffer states and world power?

That's why baltic states ran under NATO legs as soon they could, if not, no democracy, no technological advances, no good wealth distribution, no prosperity and no freedom. As with the empire you don't reach to mutual agreedments, you are just ruled by them and that should be something from the past!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527756125260681219

And then they came with goodwill gestures and the war it's because of the others.

 

[Jagdflieger]

Looking at the events from an imperialist point of view everything could match, even a comment in a hallway could be a good reason to invade a sovereign country after breaking most fundamental international laws and treaties.

If we just look to the world map we can see how big is Russia.... and how difficult to defend could be having borders with 14 countries... we can understand why part of it's security strategy is having buffer countries under its control sphere, a good example is Belarus.
For not losing that buffer you can't let that them to prosper above you, so we could imagine the job Russia was doing in Ukraine for years, bribing politicians, brainwashing population, hindering their social integration, constantly threatening them, etc.

But I can't understand some people to play others for fools. So If I live in a international recognized country why I can't have a real democracy? Why I can't take my own political decisions and join any economic or political alliance for the sole purpose of develop my country and increase my prosperity?? Some other country will not accept it? Is the empire not feeling secure losing buffer states and world power?

That's why baltic states ran under NATO legs as soon they could, if not, no democracy, no technological advances, no good wealth distribution, no prosperity and no freedom. As with the empire you don't reach to mutual agreedments, you are just ruled by them and that should be something from the past!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527756125260681219

And then they came with goodwill gestures and the war it's because of the others.

As I had stated already many times, it all starts off with Ukraine breaking the Alma Ata Declaration. The Baltic States never signed this, since they were not the founders of CIS and were never members of that organization.

Off course Ukraine is also free do so - but then a responsible government and NATO need to take appropriate actions to prevent a Russian attack onto Ukraine, (because common sense will dictate that such an attack is inevitable) and not just to provoke this issue and then end up facing the present situation.

According to Putin's historic review, (and I can't even counter it) there was never an independent state called Ukraine. It was a Soviet Republic who's vast borders were simply artificially designed by the Soviet-Union. As such Putin does not recognize these borders (respectively the territory of Ukraine) - especially due to Ukraine having abandoned the Alma Ata Declaration.
And obviously he doesn't care about the UN recognition of Ukraine.

Imagine that Spain would design a province called Basque in 1940 that stretches from Valencia to Barcelona to Saragossa, Bilbao and Andorra. Due to economic and political instability of Spain, Basque declares it's independence in 1991 based on such a territory. In-spite of having signed a deceleration of neutrality they opt to join a military alliance/pact with Russia in 2006.
Common sense will dictate that neither Spain nor NATO would simply accept this - just because the UN opted to recognize Basque as an independent country.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542874415439917058

 

[GoatsMilk]

Inshallah Putin has plenty more good will to hand out. Before snake island it was good will over Kiev. Maybe a day comes when he's overflowing with so much good will he decides to leave Ukraine completely. Has any other nation when starting a war and invading another nation ever shown this much "good will" to their enemy?

 

[Gary]

If I remember my history classes in Singapore correctly - this Indonesian attack onto Malaysia involved 4 agents dropped via parachute and two Mig 19's entering Malaysia airspace.

we did many (mostly failed) inflitration... but this is not the thread to do so

You could discuss this in the ID section

 

[Kathirz]

As I had stated already many times, it all starts off with Ukraine breaking the Alma Ata Declaration. The Baltic States never signed this, since they were not the founders of CIS and were never members of that organization.

Off course Ukraine is also free do so - but then a responsible government and NATO need to take appropriate actions to prevent a Russian attack onto Ukraine, (because common sense will dictate that such an attack is inevitable) and not just to provoke this issue and then end up facing the present situation.

According to Putin's historic review, (and I can't even counter it) there was never an independent state called Ukraine. It was a Soviet Republic who's vast borders were simply artificially designed by the Soviet-Union. As such Putin does not recognize these borders (respectively the territory of Ukraine) - especially due to Ukraine having abandoned the Alma Ata Declaration.
And obviously he doesn't care about the UN recognition of Ukraine.

Imagine that Spain would design a province called Basque in 1940 that stretches from Valencia to Barcelona to Saragossa, Bilbao and Andorra. Due to economic and political instability of Spain, Basque declares it's independence in 1991 based on such a territory. In-spite of having signed a deceleration of neutrality they opt to join a military alliance/pact with Russia in 2006.
Common sense will dictate that neither Spain nor NATO would simply accept this - just because the UN opted to recognize Basque as an independent country.

AGREEMENTS ESTABLISHING THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

Independent states....

I'm not an expert in this treaty but can you please tell me how Ukraine broke this treaty ? Maybe article 5 ?

Article 5
The High Contracting Parties acknowledge and respect each other's
territorial integrity and the inviolability of existing borders within the
Commonwealth.

Can't Ukraine just leave the agreedment? Or is something like being part of a gangster gang you can join but you can't leave without a few bullets in your body?

I think we can review a lot of treaties, including Budapest Memorandum, which Lavrov signed its assurances in the UN security council.
If you build your reality appart from international laws, so there is no need to agreed with nothing, just tell your own history of things, like "special military operation" and "denazify Ukraine" as you are an empire desperate for taking lands from others with any pretext.

I can imagine that example but it is so far from reallity, Spain is an international recognized state, so any insurrection by any territory wouldn't lead to a generalized international recognition to the new "state", as International Law in UN emanates from founder countries and International recognized sovereign states, this new "state" could sign anything with wathever country or person, but it will not fall into international laws, it will worth the same as a t-shirt signed by Lavrov.

Bismarck:
"I am firmly convinced that Spain is the strongest country of the world. Century after century trying to destroy herself and still no success“

 

[UkroTurk]

Zelensky about the strike on the Odessa region:​

Terror of Russia​

"Today, the Russian army launched another brutal missile strike.
It was a supersonic cruise anti-ship missile.
It hit an ordinary residential building in the Odessa region.
Such missiles were created to destroy aircraft carriers and other large warships."

Zelensky said that the strike is not accidental. "This is not an accidental blow, as the media in the Russian Federation speaks of.
This is a targeted missile strike by Russia, the terror of Russia, we will be frank, against our cities and villages, against our people, adults and children," the president said.


At the moment, 21 people are known to have died (16 people - a residential building and 5 people - a recreation center, including 1 child), 39 people were injured.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542800269687275520

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542946692949020674

 

[Mailman]

As I had stated already many times, it all starts off with Ukraine breaking the Alma Ata Declaration. The Baltic States never signed this, since they were not the founders of CIS and were never members of that organization.

Off course Ukraine is also free do so - but then a responsible government and NATO need to take appropriate actions to prevent a Russian attack onto Ukraine, (because common sense will dictate that such an attack is inevitable) and not just to provoke this issue and then end up facing the present situation.

According to Putin's historic review, (and I can't even counter it) there was never an independent state called Ukraine. It was a Soviet Republic who's vast borders were simply artificially designed by the Soviet-Union. As such Putin does not recognize these borders (respectively the territory of Ukraine) - especially due to Ukraine having abandoned the Alma Ata Declaration.
And obviously he doesn't care about the UN recognition of Ukraine.

Imagine that Spain would design a province called Basque in 1940 that stretches from Valencia to Barcelona to Saragossa, Bilbao and Andorra. Due to economic and political instability of Spain, Basque declares it's independence in 1991 based on such a territory. In-spite of having signed a deceleration of neutrality they opt to join a military alliance/pact with Russia in 2006.
Common sense will dictate that neither Spain nor NATO would simply accept this - just because the UN opted to recognize Basque as an independent country.

Yeah, whenever the aggressor was guilty? The victim has to blame itself, who else? Teasing Russia like this, stupid!

Regarding the threat to Russia, I have a personal story to share. When I was young and spent my time within the USSR (lucky me, ah?), I was a member of The All-Union Leninist Young Communist League, usually known as Komsomol. Among other many things we did there, we had the privilege to pay every month 2 kopeks to support peace (read USSR war machine) mostly through building peaceful and well-minded atomic ballistic missiles (this was how it was explained to us) in order to avoid the bloody US attacking us. Everybody was absolutely convinced that after showing any signs of weakness, we will be nuked into the stone age and we all had to give our share to avoid this.

Then this sad occasion happened and USSR fall into pieces. Weird enough, the US did not attack former USSR member states or Russia for some peculiar reason. Not one American soldier crossed the Russian borders with guns in order to steal their property and become the owner of their vast resources. Instead, they helped Russia to avoid the loss of their nuclear weaponry- undoubtedly for selfish reasons, but still. Thinking of this, I feel somehow disappointed or deceived...

Nobody wants to conquer this stinkhole these days, except China perhaps. A lot of inhabited lands and missing infrastructure added to brainwashed population filled with weird understanding about their world-saving mission justifying whatever crimes they are doing. Find a meaning to the word "mankurt" and you will understand what I mean.

Point is, that this insecurity feeling in Russia is purely and utterly made up to show Russians as victims in this and many other cases. My guess is, that a small victorious war is an effective way to attract attention from other problems like the shitty life quality of ordinary people or from stealing behind them. This club of kleptocrats ruling Russia has to justify somehow why they failed to build a normal country. Foreign enemy myth combined with paranoia works well.

Joke: two worms, father and son, crawl out from the pile of shit to admire the sunny world outside. "Would it be nice to live inside an apple?" wonders son-worm. "Yes, it would!" agrees his father-worm. "Why we are not living inside an apple then?" asks son-worm. "Son, one cannot choose its motherland!" says father-worm strictly and they crawl back to the pile of shit.

 

[Kathirz]

I don't fully understand this. Is the smoke curtain to avoid an air raid and help to miss the target??

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542854408156872704

The locals thought that the bridge had already been blown up, perhaps with good reason.

 

[Kathirz]

Also is Putin watching TV today? Maybe his doctor won't let him:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542780976039968769

Russian TV

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542950109201272835

 

[Gary]

Lmao one mil forum actually closes their Ukraine Russian war thread for no reason (other than maybe constant L for one participant nation).

Thank god DH exist.