I hate to inform you of this, but Russia is getting their teeth kicked in right now, by all available evidence.
1. The overwhelming majority of Russia's best troops are already KIA, WIA or MIA. They've had entire brigades of their very best forces made combat ineffective because of catastrophic casualties. Upwards of 50% of the VDV is completely gone. It can only be backfilled by mobilized men, with no training and combat experience. The 155th marine infantry brigade just got shattered at Vuhledar. They lost 136 armored vehicles and of the original 5000'ish men that comprised the brigade, they lost more than 2000 of them, including the majority of the combat troops. The "elite" 1st Guards Tank Army was so badly beaten down after the failed Kharkiv offensive and the subsequent retreat from the region, that they've had to refit back in Russia and are now being provided 50 year old T-62 tanks to backfill their loses due to a shortage of modern T-72 and T-90 tanks. Those are just a couple examples of some of Russia's best units that have been mauled.
2. Russia's most effective fighting force, Wagner, has been deeply depleted around Bakhmut. They're running out of recruited prisoners to throw into the meat grinder and are now being forced to engage with their best forces, north of Bakhmut. Ukraine has reinforced that area significantly, and is willing to pay a high price in casualties in order to further deplete Wagner's numbers and capabilities. Time in on Ukraine's side, not Wagner's. They are running out of ammunition, artillery shells and able bodies. When Bakhmut does eventually fall, and Ukraine pulls back to the defensive line at Chasiv Yar, Wagner is going to be deeply depleted and with it, so will Russia's ability to advance in that region.
3. Quality armor (tanks and IFVs) is a problem for Russia, at a time when Ukraine is just starting to receive some of the West's better stuff. The Leopard's, Bradley's, CV90's and Stryker's haven't even arrived in country yet, or have just started to trickle in. By mid April there will be a steady flow of Western equipment coming into Ukraine, while Russia continues to pull 50+ year old T-62 tanks and BTR-50's out of storage to backfill the catastrophic loses of their best tanks and IFVs. In the recent months we're also starting to see the uptick in lost Russian artillery as well. Russia still has plenty of it, but Ukraine is increasingly winning the counter battery artilery battle and as more and more, advanced Western systems show up in Ukraine, the Russian artillery losses are also starting to mount.
4. Ukraine is just NOW starting to get some of the "good stuff" from the West. GLSDB from Boieng and JDAM-ER are now allowing Ukraine to pack a bigger punch. HIMARS have made a huge difference in Ukraine's ability to target Russian logistics and command centers. But they've be using relatively small warheads in GMLRS. JDAMs can be attached to 2000lb glide bombs, the likes of which the USA used to devastate enemy strongholds in Afghanistan. It won't take long before Ukraine starts using "big boy" bombs to smash Russian concentrations of troops. We're now seeing the commited of larger Kamikaze drones as well, similar to the Lancet drones Russia is using. Wait until their advancing artillery starts coming under mass drone strikes and their ability to use artillery to support their advancing mechanized forces starts dwindling. We'll start to see the daily casualty totals skyrocket beyond there already high levels.
5. Russia's inventory of cruise missiles is dwindling quickly, at the same time as modern Western air defense systems increasingly come online in Ukraine. Russia has used a majority of its best, modern cruise missiles, which it uses for strategic strikes, and Ukraine is just now starting to receive Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS and SAMP/T missile defense systems to replace their outdated S300 systems. Therefore, as Russia's missile stockpile dwindles, Ukraine's ability to intercept them grows exponentially.
Russia is not winning this war right now, no matter how hard you try to convince us otherwise. Ukraine is training ten's of thousands of troops in Europe and they're receiving much better training and being outfitted with much better equipment than mobilized Russian soldiers that are LITERALLY being asked to provide their own gear through purchase by their families. The quality of the forces that Ukraine can reinforce and backfill their units with is much greater than that of Russia, despite the Russian numbers advantage. The technology edge is also substantially on the side of the Ukrainians and it's growing increasingly.
As we move towards the rainy season and the mud becomes a major factor again, Russia's ability to press on the offensive will continue to be an increasing issue. They are terrified to use their Air Force deep inside of Ukraine for fear of anti-air systems and they still haven't captured a major Ukrainian city of note since Mariupol, which essentially sits on the Russian border, months ago. Russia has delusions of taking Bakhmut, breaking through the defensive line at Chasiv Yar and taking the regional capitol at Kramatorsk. They've been trying to take tiny little Bakmut for 8+ months and have endured tens of thousands of casualties in the attempt to take the city. What do you think is going to happen when a fully reinforced Ukrainian defense at Kramatorsk digs in? What will that cost the Russian Army, another 100,000 combat troops and 3000-5000 armored vehicles? Eventually the cupboards become bare, especially as Ukraine wreaks havoc on Russian supply lines that are increasingly incompetent, every mile they advance from the Russian border.
The West ABSOLUTELY has an agenda. Anybody discounting that is delusional. But you are WAY off base if you think Russia is performing well in this war to this point. Remember that in the last 6 months they've lost substantially more ground in their retreats from the Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson regions, than they've gained throwing tens of thousands of fighting men to their deaths in their attempts to take Soledar and Bakhmut... Meanwhile, 40,000+ more Ukrainians are digging in and waiting for them in the highlands along the defensive line south of Chasiv Yar.
Good luck Russia... May ten's of thousands more women, children and parents in your country never see their sons, husbands, boyfriends, and children again. One can only hope they die cold, scared and alone, in an empty field, litered with artillery and mortar craters in Ukraine.
