Is Taiwan Next?

[Gary]

It is not what China has done in the last 30 years, it is what she can do TODAY! China cannot guarantee to Emporer Xi that they can sail 100 troopships and 100 supplyships to Taiwan and arrive intact. Eisenhower did but he had 100% domination of the sea and air.

What weapons she has and how good they are is the thing to consider.

That is the big question, that could only be answered by war itself. Until that this is at best a blind assessment. Effective or not its not wise to just to assume that PLA advancement in military science is keeping pace with equipment modernization at least at the theoretical and exercise level.

Its arrogant to assume red China is behind Taiwan when Taiwan itself has a history of losing wars against the reds. Taiwan hasn't been at war with anyone since the KMT expulsion to Taiwan.

Many Singaporean servicemen who had done military exercises with the Taiwanese (read: project starlight), give a low assessment on their morale and general readiness.

The Taiwanese are NOT stupid and they have been digging for 40 years, and all the important stuff is 100s of feet in the rock. The politicians and the generals and the computers are all protected. The planes will be in their caves and the ships nowhere near the ports.

Neither the PLA, the PLA are serious people. All those modernization, unmatched industrial espionage are there for a purpose.

The very key to the defence is the 3 main missiles, Brave Wind, Sky Bow and Yun Feng, and the fact that they are MOBILE, and China cannot kill them if they cannot find them. No bomber, fighter or paratroop transport can hope to outrun the Mach 7 Sky Bow.

How can you come with conclusions like this ? You do realize that Taiwan is only like 36000km sqd ? That's pretty small and by sheer numbers alone the PLAAF and its PLAN naval aviation could have covered the whole airspace in and around.

China surveillance assets will keep tabs on their movement. China's ISR is second only to the US at the moment.

there's the high altitude drone like the WZ-7, which could fly as high as 60.000ft.

This is only the high tech one. we don't know how invested the Taiwanese are with PRC HUMINT assets on the ground. In short while mobile launchers offers an increase in survivability, this is not as straightforward as you might think.

The area from the China coast to the beach is the critical killing field in the maybe 10 hours sailing. D-Day WILL be the "longest day", but in April or October.

In fact I will go out and say that Taiwan can do the job on their own!

OC

That is if Taiwan mobile launcher could survive the PLA aerial and missile onslaught. The initial war will be China trying all its cards to silent the launchers and Taiwan trying its best to survive at least until the tide no longer favors the invader.

If China is not convinced that it has silenced enough launchers, they will not move forward with the invasion. If they are convinced they will move forward with the landfall.

 

[Old Codger]

Gary,

I am going to have to follow your example and break this down to 'bite size chunks' in reply.


"That is if Taiwan mobile launcher could survive the PLA aerial and missile onslaught. The initial war will be China trying all its cards to silent the launchers and Taiwan trying its best to survive at least until the tide no longer favors the invader.

If China is not convinced that it has silenced enough launchers, they will not move forward with the invasion. If they are convinced they will move forward with the landfall."


Mobile launchers are so popular all over the world now for the same reason, they are very hard to find and follow and destroy. I will guess and say that Taiwan has or should have maybe 400 or so of them. 200 for anti ship and 200 for anti air, all with 4 rounds per load. And they can be ANYWHERE! Stationary, heading north or heading south, and at 50 KMH or 80KMH. Who is to know from one minute to the next.

Those launchers are the #1 threat that China MUST solve.


OC

 

[Old Codger]

Gary,

"How can you come with conclusions like this ? You do realize that Taiwan is only like 36000km sqd ? That's pretty small and by sheer numbers alone the PLAAF and its PLAN naval aviation could have covered the whole airspace in and around.

China surveillance assets will keep tabs on their movement. China's ISR is second only to the US at the moment."


A Chinese SRBM or MRBM will have a CEP of maybe 50 feet, and a blast area of maybe twice that. The 36,000 Sq Kms is 36 BILLION Sq Metres. Of that maybe 1000 targets gives you the need for 36 MILLION missiles, if every one was a bullseye. Or you can say that China can destroy 1000 targets with 1000 missiles IF she knows EXACTLY where they are. (underground?)

I have no idea just how long a satellite pic travels from lens to transmission to assessment to targeting and to launch. TEN minutes?? or one hour??

As for surveillance I can only assume that Taiwan wil have the benefit of the US spy satellites that overfly the eastern China 8 to 12 times a day, or so i have read.


OC

 

[Old Codger]

Gary,

Neither the PLA, the PLA are serious people. All those modernization, unmatched industrial espionage are there for a purpose.


I have read that Taiwan is crawling with Chinese spies, and I am inclined to believe it. I have also read that Taiwan knows who most are and they are being weeded out or neutralised. Maybe!

To me the across the board copying, industrial espionage, of western military R and D is an indication of a lack of confidence in China's ability to do its own. Its ability to produce gear on a par or better than the USA or Taiwan. It cannot even match RUSSIAN fighter engines!

OC

 

[Old Codger]

Gary,

That is the big question, that could only be answered by war itself. Until that this is at best a blind assessment. Effective or not its not wise to just to assume that PLA advancement in military science is keeping pace with equipment modernization at least at the theoretical and exercise level.

Its arrogant to assume red China is behind Taiwan when Taiwan itself has a history of losing wars against the reds. Taiwan hasn't been at war with anyone since the KMT expulsion to Taiwan.



I suggest that you read about invasion of Kinmen 1949, where China failed totally, and also of Invasion of Vietnam 1979 where China was handed its arse by Vietnam.

"Many Singaporean servicemen who had done military exercises with the Taiwanese (read: project starlight), give a low assessment on their morale and general readiness."

I give little cred to a "serviceman' who has an opinion of some individuals he trained with. I prefer the 'big picture'.

Taiwan WILL fight, they will have no choice, except to end up like Hong Kong, Tibet, or the Urghars.

OC


PS,
IF, Taiwan has done its homework and spent the money and effort, she can defend the home island and the Pescadores, also Matsu and Dongsha. Kinmen will be the first battle and China will probably win that one, but it will be a BIG gamble for Matsu and Dongsha.

 

[Old Codger]

........and as I like to point out, ALL of the Chinese soldiers and airmen are an ONLY CHILD, and if he carries his parents DNA into the Taiwan Strait Mum and Dad are going to be VERY angry.

Emporer Xi will be about #99 on the Chinese popularity poll and the CCP will be #100.

OC

 

[Old Codger]

"China won't do it, Chinese don't fight Chinese"


Does that mean that all the bovine excreta, sabre rattling and threats is just that, Bovine Excreta Maximus?

I say yet again, Taiwan is NOT stupid, and she will not poke the dragon for no good reason. She will bide her time and build the missiles by the thousand while China builds ships and planes by the dozen.

OC

 

[Old Codger]

depends on how the world/UN react to this invasion i guess

Russia or China will veto anything that China does not like.

OC

 

[Old Codger]

I have many friends from Taiwan, they all tell me that China doesn't really have to do attack Taiwan, China just need to test fire some missiles around Taiwan and the next hour all Taiwan airports will be packed with people struggling to catch the next flight out of Taiwan. Taiwan 民心脆弱

There is no logic in such an expectation.

The average Taiwanese citizen can see what is happening in Hong Kong, Tibet, and to the Urghars.

They will fight if they have to.

OC

 

[Old Codger]

These Taiwan islands are just within a grenade throw from the mainland, during the low tide you can almost walk up to them, why PRC hasn't taken them after 70 years? Just like China didn't take over Hong kong and Macao after 1949, it's not because China can't, it's not the right time .

The last time China tried to capture Kinmen they were given a terrible hiding.

The entire force was dead or POWs.

OC

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640058776610029569

 

[Gary]

Anyway, a bit of useful statistics if the US navy were to join the fight.

There is some question about how risky PLAN blue-water ops were, or if they were “blue-water” at all. China’s J-15, a reverse-engineered copy of Russia’s Su-33, is marginally larger than the venerable U.S. F/A-18E/F Super Hornet—10 percent longer and wider, with 40 percent more wing area. The J-15’s 20,000 pounds of internal fuel stores purportedly give the J-15 an impressive high-altitude transit range of more than 1,600 nm.4 Assuming low-intensity flight operations relatively close to the carrier, a J-15 theoretically would be able to reach the Chinese mainland from 700 nm if it maintained a 50 percent fuel reserve. J-15s also have demonstrated limited proficiency in air-to-air refueling, using the Russian UPAZ-1A fuel pod for fighter-to-fighter “buddy tanking.”5 The large, center-mounted tanks were not seen in photos or videos of Liaoning flight operations, nor were there any reports of PLA Air Force (PLAAF) H-6 or Y-20 air-to-air tankers from the mainland supporting carrier flight operations.​

​

The PLAN likely pursued cautious, low-intensity flight operations to maximize aircraft fuel reserves for a divert and reduce overall risk to carrier operations. JMSDF photos and PLA video of the deployment showed J-15s either flew “clean,” without any drag-inducing external stores or with a few relatively light air-to-air missiles. No large payloads involving air-to-surface weapons, drop tanks, or pods were noted. Japanese officials reported the Liaoning conducted more than 300 aircraft sorties during the May 2022 deployment.6 Over the 12 days of reported flight ops, that averages to fewer than 20 fighter sorties per day, combined with dozens of helicopter flights throughout the deployment. Chinese military commentators declared this to be a “decent number” of sorties for training.7 For some perspective on those numbers, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) recently set a record for completing 170 sorties in eight and a half hours of training.8​

​

Lessons from the Changing Geometry of PLA Navy Carrier Ops

China’s improving carrier capabilities are shifting where its navy can operate.

www.usni.org

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​

@Nilgiri ​

The Shandong (CV-17) now upped the ante with 80 sorties in 3 days or 27 sorties per day. A quite marked increase from the Liaoning

U.S., Chinese Aircraft Carriers Operating Near Taiwan, Chinese Carrier Shandong Launched 80 Fighter Missions in Weekend Drills - USNI News

Both a U.S. and a Chinese carrier strike group are operating near Taiwan as political tensions continue to simmer following a Taiwanese presidential meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), USNI News has learned. On Monday, the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group was operating in the...

news.usni.org

 

[Nilgiri]

 

[Bogeyman]

US Can’t Use Philippine Bases for China Offensive, Marcos Says​

5 Mayıs 2023

• Philippines leader tries to strike balance between two powers
• Marcos says he reassured China’s foreign minister Qin on bases

Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the US can’t use military bases in his country for “offensive action” against China in the event of a future war over Taiwan, as the Southeast Asian nation continues to balance strengthening American defense ties with increasing pressure from Beijing.

“I think we are in lockstep with the US with that,” Marcos said. “And that they understand the concerns that the Philippines has, and are sensitive to the reasons why we have those concerns.”

Marcos, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington on Thursday, said the Biden administration had never raised the possibility that the military bases provided under an expanded defense cooperation agreement could become “staging areas for any offensive action against any country.”

The Philippines leader, who was elected last year, said he had even reassured Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang over American use of the sites when the top Chinese diplomat visited in late April.

“I assured him that no, these are not intended to be military bases to attack, to move against anyone, any country — not China, not any country,” Marcos said in a question-and-answer session following remarks on US-Philippine relations.

Marcos, in a separate Reuters interview, said joint patrols with the US, Australia, Japan and even South Korea in the disputed South China Sea could begin this year. Manila is in talks with Washington and Tokyo for a trilateral defense treaty, he added. He also told Reuters that expanded US access in the Philippines can be used for disaster responses and to evacuate Filipinos in Taiwan in case of conflict.

The comments come after the US and the Philippines announced an expansion of the so-called Enhanced Defense Cooperation Arrangement between the two nations, bringing the total number of military sites the US can access in the Philippines to nine from five.

Acrimony over Taiwan has worsened already discordant US-Chinese relations, and President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if the island were attacked, breaking with Washington’s longtime ambiguity on the issue.

Beijing, which has had disputes with many Southeast Asian countries over its expansive claims in the South China Sea, has criticized the US-Philippine defense agreement. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the accord would “escalate tensions and endanger peace and stability in the region,” while warning Southeast Asian nations to “remain vigilant and avoid being coerced or used by the US.”

Marcos — who spent the majority of his remarks pitching the Philippines as an alternative for companies restructuring supply chains in Asia — said his country’s foreign policy was based on peace and that it doesn’t wish to “provoke” China.

He added that the Philippines is still trying to set up a hotline between Manila and Beijing to ensure that maritime disputes don’t escalate, and stressed that the defense agreement with the US wouldn’t allow deployed forces to attack China from Philippine sites.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Nilgiri]

US Can’t Use Philippine Bases for China Offensive, Marcos Says​

5 Mayıs 2023

• Philippines leader tries to strike balance between two powers
• Marcos says he reassured China’s foreign minister Qin on bases

Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the US can’t use military bases in his country for “offensive action” against China in the event of a future war over Taiwan, as the Southeast Asian nation continues to balance strengthening American defense ties with increasing pressure from Beijing.

“I think we are in lockstep with the US with that,” Marcos said. “And that they understand the concerns that the Philippines has, and are sensitive to the reasons why we have those concerns.”

Marcos, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington on Thursday, said the Biden administration had never raised the possibility that the military bases provided under an expanded defense cooperation agreement could become “staging areas for any offensive action against any country.”

The Philippines leader, who was elected last year, said he had even reassured Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang over American use of the sites when the top Chinese diplomat visited in late April.

“I assured him that no, these are not intended to be military bases to attack, to move against anyone, any country — not China, not any country,” Marcos said in a question-and-answer session following remarks on US-Philippine relations.

Marcos, in a separate Reuters interview, said joint patrols with the US, Australia, Japan and even South Korea in the disputed South China Sea could begin this year. Manila is in talks with Washington and Tokyo for a trilateral defense treaty, he added. He also told Reuters that expanded US access in the Philippines can be used for disaster responses and to evacuate Filipinos in Taiwan in case of conflict.

The comments come after the US and the Philippines announced an expansion of the so-called Enhanced Defense Cooperation Arrangement between the two nations, bringing the total number of military sites the US can access in the Philippines to nine from five.

Acrimony over Taiwan has worsened already discordant US-Chinese relations, and President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if the island were attacked, breaking with Washington’s longtime ambiguity on the issue.

Beijing, which has had disputes with many Southeast Asian countries over its expansive claims in the South China Sea, has criticized the US-Philippine defense agreement. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the accord would “escalate tensions and endanger peace and stability in the region,” while warning Southeast Asian nations to “remain vigilant and avoid being coerced or used by the US.”

Marcos — who spent the majority of his remarks pitching the Philippines as an alternative for companies restructuring supply chains in Asia — said his country’s foreign policy was based on peace and that it doesn’t wish to “provoke” China.

He added that the Philippines is still trying to set up a hotline between Manila and Beijing to ensure that maritime disputes don’t escalate, and stressed that the defense agreement with the US wouldn’t allow deployed forces to attack China from Philippine sites.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

He can say whatever he wants to...to try smooth things over with PRC....past however you define all the words used to begin with in the end.

US will give its gentle nod and shrug as well if Marcos asks.

But PRC wont buy it deep down....why allow the US to return and set up these bases in first place?