Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

3billion more weapons are on the way.

Exclusive: Pentagon accounting error overvalued Ukraine weapons aid by $3 billion

The Pentagon overestimated the value of the ammunition, missiles and other equipment it sent to Ukraine by around $3 billion, a Senate aide and a defense official said on Thursday, an error that may lead the way for more weapons being sent to Kyiv for its defense against Russian forces.

www.reuters.com

The defense official said it is possible the amount of overvalued weaponry could grow beyond $3 billion as the Pentagon examines the situation more thoroughly.

In its accounting, the Pentagon used replacement cost to value the weapons aid, instead of the weaponry's value when it was purchased and depreciated, the senior defense officials said.

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Since August 2021, the United States has sent weapons valued at about $21.1 billion to Ukraine from its stockpiles.

Changing the valuation of the equipment could delay the Biden administrations' need to ask Congress to authorize more funds for Ukraine as the debt ceiling fight intensifies.

Saw this as well. 5 more packages at $600 million USD each over the next 3-4 months, is no joke. Lots of toys can be sent. Especially used items, at a bargain price, using drawdown authority.

 

[Afif]

USA could easily send two squadrons (24 aircraft) of F-16s to Ukraine by the conclusion of 2023. The bigger challenge will be to also send enough air defense to keep them safe from missile strikes, as the F-16 is far less capable of taking off and landing on strips of highway and small, underdeveloped rural airfields, than the more rugged Mig-29s and Su-27s. It will be hard to "hide" a sizeable quantity of F-16s. If a coalition of donors were able to form 4 squadrons, totaling 48 aircraft, it would be much more obvious where those aircraft were based, making them a prime target for all types of Russian missile / drone attack.

Honestly, i think those two batteries of PAC-3 that are already in service, could provide protective baubles for two independent airbases. And if Ukraine is provided with 24 (2 squadron) F-16s, they can operate each squadron from each airbase.

 

[Relic]

Below is the list of air defense systems that have been publicly delivered to / committed to Ukraine so far. We know that more have been sent based on pictures that have emerged, but they remain publicly unconfirmed, therefore, I won't speculate.

Stationary Air Defense Systems Delivered

1x MIM-104 Patriot Battery (USA)
1x MIM-104 Patriot Battery + 2x additional launchers (Germany + Netherlands)
2x IRIS-T SLM Battery (Germany)
1x SAMP/T Battery (France + Italy)
2x NASAMS Battery (USA)
1x S-300PMU Battery (Slovakia)
1x Aspide 2000 Battery (Spain)
2x Crotale Battery (France)
1x MIM-23 HAWK Battery + 2x additional firing units (Spain + USA)
Unknown quantity of Aspide 2000 launchers (Italy)
Unknown quantity of Spada launchers (Italy)

Mobile Air Defense Units Delivered

12x Avenger air defense units (USA)
6x Stormer HVM air defense units (Britain)
6x 9K35 Strela-10M air defense units (Czech Republic)
Unknown quantity of S-125 Newa SC air defense units (Poland)
Unknown quantity of 9K33 Osa-AK(M air defense units (Poland)
Unknown quantity of Osa-AKM-P1 Żądłos air defense units (Poland)
Unknown quantity of RIM-7 Sparrow missiles adapted for BUK air defense units (USA)

Man Portable Air Defense Systems Delivered

2000x 9K32 Strela-2 and Strela-3 systems (Germany)
1600x FIM-92 Stinger systems (USA)
500x FIM-92 Stinger systems (Germany)
300x FIM-92 Stinger systems (Denmark)
60x FIM-92 Stinger systems (Greece)
Unknown quantity of PPZR Piorun systems (Poland)
Unknown quantity of Mistral systems (France + Norway)
Unknown quantity of Martlet systems (Britain)

Mobile, Guided Air Defense Guns Delivered

32x Gepard air defense guns (Germany)

Stationary Air Defense Systems Committed

6x IRIS-T SLM Battery (Germany)
6x NASAMS Battery (USA)
1x NASAMS Battery + 2x NASAMs Launchers (Canada + Norway)

Mobile Air Defense Units Commited

2x 2K12M2 KUB-M2 air defense batteries (Czech Republic)
2x 2K12M2 KUB-M2 air defense units (Slovakia)
6x IRIS-T SLS air defense units (Germany)

Mobile, Guided Air Defense Guns, Committed

5x Gepard air defense guns (Germany)
2x Skynex air defense guns (Germany)

This has been a really good start, however, more has to be done. That's especially true among tier 1 type systems that can intercept both hypersonic missiles and cruise missiles at a high rate of success. The following would make a huge difference if it were committed over the coming months.

1x MIM-104 Patriot Battery (USA)
1x MIM-104 Patriot Battery (Germany)
1x MIM-104 Patriot Battery (Purchased by Britain + Canada from USA)
1x SAMP/T Battery (France)
1x SAMP/T Battery (Italy)

 

[Relic]

Honestly, i think those two batteries of PAC-3 that are already in service, could provide protective baubles for two independent airbases. And if Ukraine is provided with 24 (2 squadron) F-16s, they can operate each squadron from each airbase.

I think that Ukraine wants those protecting places like Kyiv and Kharviv / Lviv. Ideally, USA and Germany would donate an additional battery each, or maybe a countries like Canada and Britain could pair up to buy a battery off of the USA and ship it. Those batteries could then be layered with systems such as NASAMS, IRIS-T SLM, and mobile systems such as BUK, KUB, Avenger, or Stormer, and a couple guns such as Gepard or Skynex, in order to provide cost effective and efficient air defenses vs all types of aerial threats that Russia employs.

 

[Kathirz]

I think that Ukraine wants those protecting places like Kyiv and Kharviv / Lviv. Ideally, USA and Germany would donate an additional battery each, or maybe a countries like Canada and Britain could pair up to buy a battery off of the USA and ship it. Those batteries could then be layered with systems such as NASAMS, IRIS-T SLM, and mobile systems such as BUK, KUB, Avenger, or Stormer, and a couple guns such as Gepard or Skynex, in order to provide cost effective and efficient air defenses vs all types of aerial threats that Russia employs.

Yeah, I would add also some city near the current frontline or a logistical hub for the main effort of the counteroffensive, like Dnipro or Zaporizhzhia. Probably all the armor which is coming either parked or in maintenance stations is something you would need to protect.
Mykolaiv is another city which suffered a lot from cruise/ballistic missiles and could be another logistical hub if at some point UKR crosses the Dnipro.

That will move some AD to the frontline letting some cities less protected but it will be needed IMO.

CNN writed yesterday that a Patriot battery was involved in the four aircraft incidents in Bryansk region. I have my doubts if you are willing to risk so valuable equipment so close to RU borders, but who knows. We still don't know the real reasons about such attacks and that could point us to a well preplaned action involving such gear.

Edit: Adding some interesting context about the Patriots:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659330582147375106

That could explain why Russia attacked Kyiv and the Patriot system with such intensity two days ago. Let's wait for more news.

 

[Gary]

Welcome to Urban warfare

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659119653224955905

 

[Ripley]

The US has signaled that it wouldn’t stand on their way if the users wish to supply Ukraine with F16s.

Meanwhile, Mr. Zelensky made a quick stop at Saudi Arabia to attend the Arab Summit briefly and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before his visit to Japan where G7 meeting will take place where he is expected to lobby heavily for the aircraft during the summit.

Although the United States signaled an OK for her allies to transfer F16s from their own inventory, so far she has not shown much ‘enthusiasm’ to do same from her inventory. It is known that The US lawmakers from both sides lobbying for such a transfer but Biden administration resisting to a transfer at the moment not before forming an “international coalition “ to facilitate the transfer(s) through and want to leave it to NATO Summit in in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July as a main agenda issue.

* Gathered from open internet sources and CNN.com

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

 

[Relic]

Ukraine is reporting that overnight in the Donetsk region, a drone spotted 10 T-90 Russian MBTs camouflaged in a forest. They claim to have eliminated all 10 in a HIMARS strike. While plausible, I'll wait on video confirmation from the drone before I'm overly excited.

Big news if true though. Russia CANNOT afford to lose large quantities of their T-90s, especially considering that they'll be replaced by a T-62 pulled out of storage as the replacement... Talk about an enormous drop in capability.

 

[Woland]

Couple thoughts and implications on the F-16s: especially in light of the $3 billion "accounting error" I think that an overlooked reason for the Biden admin's reluctance to provide F-16s is rooted in internal politics, but stating this openly would be unpopular for everyone. The Biden administration wants to spend more money without the appearance of spending more money.

1. A big criticism of Trump and his faction has been that Ukraine is a European issue and that European countries should provide more for its defense. Even during his presidency Trump constantly said (correctly) that Europe should invest more in its defense rather than relying on the US. Both these points will undoubtedly play out in the upcoming election. Trump and other Republicans will attack Biden on providing huge sums of money for Ukraine when at home [insert problems x, y, z].

The F-16s are very expensive and by providing them the US's total contribution to Ukraine will balloon. The closer we get to the election the more Biden wants to keep costs down while being able to say that Europe has been picking up in supporting Ukraine and that he has gathered a coalition effort, rather than, as Trump will frame it, the US is getting a bad deal. The cost to benefit ratio of F-16s compared to other aid is not great. All aid has to be valued and subtracted from the total amount of $ congress approved. This also goes into...

2. Additional aid to Ukraine past the remaining $5.3 billion will require approval from congress. No new aid will be approved until the US debt ceiling is raised, a debacle which is currently unfolding. The approval of a budget for further aid will be made into theater by the MAGA faction and used to score political points for the aforementioned reasons. The lower the costs for helping Ukraine, the less political points can be scored by the MAGA faction. Once again, the cost to benefit ratio for the Biden admin in providing F-16s has to be considered.

3. The recent NYT article https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/ukraine-f-16-biden-netherlands-britain.html that stated: "Kyiv’s pilots are currently not even allowed to train on the F-16s that are owned by European states, according to a senior Ukrainian official who spoke on condition of anonymity" - I don't see why the Biden admin would ever take this stance, I don't think the claim was true.


As a result I don't think the US will provide F-16s anytime soon. The remaining money will be spent on more urgent needs that have a higher immediate payoff- ammo, armored vehicles, etc. I think it's more likely that when the time comes it will be countries like the Netherlands and Denmark that will be first to provide Ukraine with the first F-16s, with the approval of the US.

 

[Umigami]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659599358797443073

 

[GoatsMilk]

Has any Russian mouthpiece ever commentated in a serious manner on the problem of western supplies to Ukraine and the long term problem that posses to Russia?

 

[Umigami]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659875567712325633

 

[Relic]

Per Politico, USA will announce another $375 million arms package for Ukraine in the coming days. The package will include artillery shells, armored vehicles and anti-tank armored vehicles, per the report.

I'll post the full contents of the package as it's released.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659805884854288388

 

[Niaja]

Wagner have finally declared victory in Bakhmut and Artemovski.

 

[UkroTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659875567712325633

Dutch Air Force F-16 fighters

The Dutch Ministry of Defense planned to decommission 28 fighters by May 2024.

So 28 vipers are on the way.

++++++++++

Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, said that Ukraine would receive American F-16 fighter jets from partners in the future. Decisions have already been practically made. He said this in an interview with Channel 24.

Podolyak said that the partners are discussing technical issues, how it is logical to start the process of transferring aircraft to Ukraine.

 

[Relic]

What I would like to see going forward is the transfer of American items to Ukraine, paid for by 3rd parties, while the U.S. continues to fund critical supplies such as ammunition, missiles and air defense systems. As an example, there is no reason why Canada + Sweden (just an example) can't jointly purchase 100 Bradley M2 ODS that are soon to be retired by the Americans, for $2 million each and pay for the Americans to ship them to Ukraine and train another Ukrainian brigade on how to use them. Let's say that cost $500 million ($250 million for each of Canada and Sweden), then the U.S. can pay to ship TOW missiles and 25mm rounds to arm the Bradleys.

There are a lot of countries, mine included, that could easily afford projects such as those, but don't have excess items of our own to send. The Americans would be happy to recoup that money as well, because they could then use it to replenish their own stocks, and buy newer / better replacements for the items they are sending.

 

[Umigami]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659971405071409154

 

[Relic]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659971405071409154

If they are actually getting 45 F-16's, I would image that they'll come slowly, in batches of 10-12, as they are retrofitted for Ukrainian purposes. I can't imagine a reality in which 45 F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine in 2023. If they can all be retrofitted / upgraded by the end of 2024, that would be a huge win! If they can get 24 of them (two squadrons) combat ready this year, that would be impactful.

 

[Gary]

Enjoy while can...that could be the last victory for Moscow.

 

[Soldier30]

Attack of 3 Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles in the Zaporozhye direction. Footage of the attack of three Ukrainian BMP-1s in the Zaporozhye direction in January of this year has been published. The positions of the Russian reconnaissance group of the army special forces and marines of the 177th regiment of the Caspian flotilla were attacked. Three Ukrainian BMP-1s came close to the Russian positions and landed troops. As a result of the ensuing battle, after one of the BMPs was damaged, the Ukrainian units retreated. The details of the battle are unknown, according to the results of the battle, there are wounded on both sides.

A short episode of an oncoming tank battle has been published, a Russian T-80BVM tank, under the command of a fighter with the call sign Altai, with a Ukrainian tank, presumably T-64. Reportedly, a Ukrainian tank leaving the forest belt was attacked by a T-80BVM tank. The video shows part of the battle, where the T-80BVM tank fires a second time at a Ukrainian tank and undermines its ammunition load.