Yes, Offence is becoming increasingly difficult in 21st century warfare. This is not only the opinion of defence enthusiasts like us but also, it is coming from the peoples who are leading expert in the field.
Listen from BGen Mark Clingan, (USMC
Assistant Deputy Commandant to CD&I and Deputy Commanding General of MCCDC) and the other experts.
Experts discuss what lessons policymakers should draw from land warfare in Ukraine and what adaptations the United States, as well as allies and partners, sh...
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The problem with large number of UGV charging ahead is if they are not well armoured/protected as manned tanks, they would get killed more easily. The same is true if you cannot put Expensive APS on them for cost saving.
But more importantly, The issue is not so much that if you can compensate the lack of adequate armour and APS on UGVs by adding quantitative advantage through deploying large numbers of them, (or even lets say, you actually put an APS on them) rather, due to the increasing of precision and autonomy of modern weapon system the very notion of traditional
Concentrated thrust/maneuverer are becoming increasingly obsolete Against a near-peer adversary.
1. I mean, the first obstacle is obviously mines, we saw Russians are making good use of them against Ukrainian counter offensive. And it doesn’t even have to completely destroy the vehicles. Just bowing up their tracks would kill the
Tanks/UGVs Mobility and make them sitting ducks.
Here you can see the devastation of an advancing Ukrainian formation from Russian mines.
2. Second killer would be the Artillery, (additionally, loitering ammunitions) even with advance counter measures like APS on each tank/UGV And (let’s say) individual Triple-A C-RAM VSHORAD organically deployed with each Tank company, (if you can practically afford such distribution of rather expensive VSHORADs)
Multiple Rounds Simultaneous Impact (MRSI) from 1 battery (6x) 155mm heavy artillery (salvo of 18-20 rounds
) or (in the future
) interconnected autonomous swarm of loitering ammunition are simply going overwhelm the counter measures. (APS and C-RAM)
And likely to kill 50% of the advancing Tank/UGV formation.
We already saw countless videos of both Russian and Ukrainian armour/mechanised formations getting taken out by precision artillery fires And loitering ammunition.
View attachment 59315
1/2 vehicle were hit by mines. (remember,
Now I saw people criticising Ukrainian army by saying that, they emulating the Russian tactics hence the disaster.
However, the fact of the matter is,
the Tactics for any concentrated thrust/manoeuvre the infiltrate enemy line is more or less same for every military. (Whether it follows the Western doctrine or Eastern doctrine)
That is why BGen Mark Clingan said, (in the presentations)
he is yet to see any evidence that Western tanks will fair better compare to their Russian counterparts.
Similarly, UGVs just through greater numbers unlikely to make any difference, and very likely to end up like the vehicles (in the photo above) in any Traditional concentrated offense scenario.
(However, it can be argued that, an Advancing manoeuvre formation can put their own Artillery fire support to good work in combined arms tactics (like their defending adversary) to effectively disintegrate and neutralise the defensive line so an armoured breach by the advancing formation can be conducted more successfully and with less resistance. I will addresses that in a bit)
3. And after that, (mines and joint fire support) when you will reach the well prepared enemy defence line, enemy Tanks, IFVs, UGVs as well as infantry equipped with advanced ATGM will be waiting for you.
And give the advantage of pre-preparation they will make the best use of Camouflage, concealment and deception. (CCD) Thus, Defending is very likely to see first and shoot force first.
There are maybe misconceptions that, due to incredible advance in sensor technologies like HD MWIR FLIR or AESA SAR old school Camouflage, concealment and deception (CCD) is became obsolete.
However, that is not true.
Obviously, it is no brainer that with adequate camouflage you can mask your self with terrain from cheap UAVs that only has TV sensor yet lacks FLIR.
But also, there are advance multi-spectral camouflage nets that, not only can hide light infantry against IR sensors.
(This is below SAAB's Baracuda series multi-spectral camouflage)
View attachment 59318
View attachment 59319
But also, it works for tanks/IFVs/UGVs quite well.
View attachment 59316
View attachment 59320
(MCS stands for 'mobile camouflage system' for vehicles. You can see it’s effectiveness compared to unprotected vehicle)
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And here its effectiveness against Modern SAR.
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And if leafs are added on top MCS or it takes cover under trees lines, it becomes totally invincible even to the most modern AESA sensor like APG-81. (When it’s not moving)
View attachment 59323
(Let's not also forget that, recently with AbramsX the concept of silent watch has been introduced. Where Engine won’t be running, (almost completely eliminating the IR signature) yet Tank will remain capable of ISR, targeting and shooting its cannon.)
Now, despite you having formidable ISR assets in numbers (like small/medium UCAVs equipped with advanced IR sensors,) Modern CCD remain effective for the defending line.
Thus, (back to argument of heavy Artillery employment against well prepare defending line) employment of heavy Artillery, close air support or loitering ammunitions in support of combined arms offensive manoeuvre formation against the well prepared defending force does not nearly bring the similar effect as it brings on advancing concentrated formations for the defending force.
As concentrated advancing manoeuvre formation is simply more exposed to the defending force's ISR assets (when they are moving) than the other way around
(Also, let's keep in mind that, in a near-peer conflict both party would make extensive use of EW to disrupt and delay Adversary’s kill-chain by jamming the ISR assets and effective communication.)
But that does not mean, CCD can completely protect the defending line from offensive joint fire support (mostly artillery, but also CAS and loitering ammunitions)
in fact far from,
Modern ISTAR is still very formidable and likely to take out a good numbers of tanks/IFVs and infantry position in advance for the offensive manoeuvre formation.
But than again, Defending force won’t be sitting duck completely.
The most important lesson from Russo-Ukraine war seems to be, in modern conflict against near-peer adversary
dispersion coupled with high mobility is the most effective tactic to increase the survivability of the friendly force.
As this RUSI report puts it-
- For land forces, the pervasive ISTAR on the modern battlefield and the layering of multiple sensors at the tactical level make concealment exceedingly difficult to sustain. Survivability is often afforded by being sufficiently dispersed to become an uneconomical target, by moving quickly enough to disrupt the enemy’s kill chain and thereby evade engagement, or by entering hardened structures. Shell scrapes and hasty defences can increase immediate survivability but also risk the force becoming fixed by fire while precision fires and specialist munitions do not leave these positions survivable. Forces instead should prioritise concentrating effects while only concentrating mass under favourable conditions – with an ability to offer mutual support beyond line of sight – and should give precedence to mobility as a critical component of their survivability.
Conclusion- I don’t think changing manned tanks with UGVs for
traditional offensive concentration would produce desirable effect.
Rather, Dispersion coupled with high mobility would likely to remain the most effective tactic in tomorrow’s battlefield against near-peer adversaries. (and UGV likely to play an important role in that)