You would know that two of the biggest overseas Flanker operators are India and China don't you? Apart from them, most international Flanker operators are those who've acquired them for a squadron or two.
Comparing that to F-35 program of record, F-35 orders from Korea and Japan alone covers the total number of Su-30 variants sold to countries apart from China and India. Add in Australian and Israel, then total Asia-Pacific region F-35 sales eclipse total sales figure of Su-27 and Su-30 variants operated and sold to anywhere other than China and India.
You're just understating how big of a market F-35 is placed in. Add Europe and it's not even close. This thing was developed to replace F-16 and Harrier.
250 aircrafts only for Turkiye is absolutely overblown.
As for Pakistan, you'll see, but the actual track record says otherwise.
Azerbaijan sure, they've joined the program afterall, and Kazakhstan maybe, but their numbers doesn't get anywhere near hundreads of aircrafts that's needed to meet your projection. Qatar's number one goal is to keep their weapons supply diversified and keep diplomatic relations through lucrative arms deals, so even if they get Kaan, it wouldn't be as much as they buy different western jets.
That would't stop france from selling Rafales. Also they'll have an advantage in terms of being ITAR free until TF-35000 comes online.
Also, how are you so sure about cost overrun for GCAP when the project is just entering demonstrator phase? Moreover, GCAP will quite literally be in different market segment to Kaan in the first place. Same applies for NGF and the point is actually moot. What really matter is China.
Yeah, and that's 15 years from 2030, around the time which Kaan is planned to be declared IOC. France have sold less than 300 Mirage 2000s abroad and that was a much cheaper aircraft, literally in the Gripen weight class, and again, all the while France had and still has much more experience in international arms sales, foreign influence and ability to issue credit.
Discussion about emerging market/developong nations' economic outlook is a topic for different thread, but if I am to be clear about one thing, it is the fact that middle income trap has been plaguing these so-called developing economies for literally decades. Only exceptions have been Taiwan and Korea in the last 3 deacdes and that's only two out of literally dozens. Even if we count PRC, they are really an outlier, and we'll be able to agree on that.
Without substantial increase of per capita productivity (which is the most important metric when it comes to tax revenue relative to the abaolute size of the economy) in these developong countries, there's no prospect of any substantial increase in military spending capabilities by these countries. And that proved to be incredibly difficult.
Also, if anything, apart from middle income trap, recent re-ashoring trends coupled with increasing capital cost of global warming, growing hurdles of entering more advanced industries, poor political and diplomatic decisions and plethora of other factors, now it's only getting less likely/harder that there will be any new developed, high income economy to emerge anywhere globally.
Sure, more countries will transition from being absolutely dirt poor to the status of "developing economy/emerging market" in the next decade, but ASEAN countries gives you a very good idea of what to expect from these emerging market countries when it comes to their procurement capacity and it isn't all that much.
Moreover, although it might be true that those specific countries you've mentioned above might not be interested in an arms deal with China, many more current emerging market countries are and same will be true for those who newly acquired that status. Just look at ASEAN, South Asian, West Asian and African region and it's clear as a day. If anything, China has only been demostrating that they have formidable capability in supplying weapons to other countries and are really starting to ramp up their involvement in recent year.
So TUSAS and Turkiye trying to pitch Kaan wouldn't only face competition from traditional players like France, but also from China. And China especially shares the same advantage of US made equippment, that they are acquired and operated in large numbers by the country of its origin, ensuring superb economics of scale and garaunteed life cycle support.
