TR TF-X KAAN Fighter Jet

[Heartbang]

and the thing invented a nonexistent case to use as a point for their defense

That's exactly what have happened, and that is also what we have here to deal with.

 

[Heartbang]

It would be very normal if they sell each unit for 200 millions with full package. (Logistics, spare parts, weapon systems and training.)

B R U H
It'll initially start from 100 million, and gradually drop to 80 and less through economies of scale.

Mark my motherfucken words, when all is said and done, KAAN WILL OUTSELL THE F-35.

 

[B_A]

B R U H
It'll initially start from 100 million, and gradually drop to 80 and less through economies of scale.

Mark my motherfucken words, when all is said and done, KAAN WILL OUTSELL THE F-35.

Unless Japan,korea,india and Eu turn to KAAN.....

I just hope KAAN can outell the Chinese Jets.

 

[YeşilVatan]

Unless Japan,korea,india and Eu turn to KAAN.....

I just hope KAAN can outell the Chinese Jets.

We don't know what 2040s will be like. 20 years ago the world was a very different place.

 

[Windchime]

I was messing around and decided to ask a Chatbot about the difference between the UK and France's 6th generation jet and Turkey's 5th jet's capabilities.

This is what it gave me.


The UK and France are developing 6th-generation fighter jets, known as the Tempest and the FCAS, respectively. Turkey is also developing a 5th generation of fighter jet known as the KAAN.

Here is a table comparing the three aircraft:

Feature	Tempest	FCAS	KAAN
Generation	6th	6th	5th
First flight	2035 (planned)	2040 (planned)	2029 (planned)
Speed	Mach 2.5+	Mach 2.5+	Mach 2+
Range	3,000+ miles	3,000+ miles	2,000+ miles
Payload	10+ tons	10+ tons	6+ tons
Stealth	Highly stealthy	Highly stealthy	Moderately stealthy
Weapons	Lasers, directed energy weapons, hypersonic missiles	Lasers, directed energy weapons, hypersonic missiles	Air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground missiles
Artificial intelligence	Highly integrated AI	Highly integrated AI	Limited AI

(The KAAN's first flight date is wrong, I know)

As you can see, the Tempest and FCAS are both highly advanced aircraft with similar capabilities. They are both highly stealthy, have long ranges, and can carry a large payload of weapons. They also both integrate artificial intelligence to a significant degree.

The KAAN is less advanced than the Tempest and FCAS, but it is still a capable aircraft. It is moderately stealthy, has a shorter range, and can carry a smaller payload of weapons. It also does not integrate artificial intelligence to the same degree as the Tempest and FCAS.

In terms of their capabilities, the Tempest and FCAS are both designed to be dominant air superiority fighters. They are equipped with a wide range of weapons and sensors, and they are designed to be able to defeat any current or future air threats. They are also designed to be able to operate in contested airspace, where they will be exposed to enemy air defences and electronic warfare systems.

The KAAN is also designed to be an air superiority fighter, but it is not as capable as the Tempest and FCAS. It is primarily intended for use in the Turkish air force, and it is not expected to be exported to other countries.

The Tempest and FCAS are both still in development, so it is difficult to say definitively which aircraft is superior. However, they are both very promising aircraft, and they represent the future of air combat.

..........................................................................................................................................................................

I asked it to elaborate on what led it to believe KAAN isn't as stealthy or isn't as AI integrated as Tempest and FCAS, and it answered.


There are a few reasons why I believe the KAAN is not as stealthy as the Tempest and FCAS.

• The KAAN is a smaller aircraft than the Tempest and FCAS. This means that it has a smaller radar cross-section, which makes it more difficult to detect by radar. However, it also means that it has less internal space for stealth features, such as radar-absorbent materials and shaping.
• The KAAN is not expected to use the same stealth technologies as the Tempest and FCAS. The Tempest and FCAS are both expected to use cutting-edge stealth technologies, such as metamaterials and quantum radar. The KAAN is not expected to use these same technologies, as they are still in development and relatively expensive.
• The KAAN is not expected to be as heavily invested in stealth as the Tempest and FCAS. The Tempest and FCAS are both designed to be highly stealthy, as stealth is one of their most important capabilities. The KAAN is not expected to be as heavily invested in stealth, as it will also need to be capable of carrying a large payload of weapons and operating in contested airspace.

It is important to note that the KAAN is still in development, and its stealth capabilities may improve over time. However, based on the information that is currently available, I believe that the KAAN is not as stealthy as the Tempest and FCAS.

There are a few reasons why I believe the KAAN is not as AI-integrated as the Tempest and FCAS.

• The KAAN is a smaller aircraft than the Tempest and FCAS. This means that it has less space for AI hardware and software.
• The KAAN is not expected to use the same AI technologies as the Tempest and FCAS. The Tempest and FCAS are both expected to use cutting-edge AI technologies, such as machine learning and artificial neural networks. The KAAN is not expected to use these same technologies, as they are still in development and relatively expensive.
• The KAAN is not expected to be as heavily invested in AI as the Tempest and FCAS. The Tempest and FCAS are both designed to be highly integrated with AI, as AI is one of their most important capabilities. The KAAN is not expected to be as heavily invested in AI, as it will also need to be capable of operating without AI in case of electronic warfare or other disruptions.

It is important to note that the KAAN is still in development, and its AI capabilities may improve over time. However, based on the information that is currently available, I believe that the KAAN is not as AI integrated as the Tempest and FCAS.
In addition to the reasons mentioned above, it is also worth noting that the KAAN is being developed by a single country, Turkey, while the Tempest and FCAS are being developed by multiple countries, the UK and France. This means that the KAAN is not benefiting from the same level of international collaboration and expertise as the Tempest and FCAS. As a result, it is likely that the KAAN will lag behind the Tempest and FCAS in terms of AI integration.
Overall, I believe that the Tempest and FCAS are both more advanced than the KAAN in terms of stealth and AI integration. However, it is important to remember that the KAAN is still in development, and its capabilities may improve over time.

So what do you guys think about the AI's analysis?

Do you believe that KAAN might still be able to sell after the 6th-generation jets' entire production, or are you concerned that KAAN might turn into another Saab Gripen?

Sorry, this is absolutely hot garbage from start to bottom. Unfortunately generational text AI currently out there for consumer use are no good when it comes to military matter, or generally anything too technical. We'll see how Google and Microsoft's own programs would be which are known to have been trained with way deeper and vaster database and are based on way larger variables.

The comments by Bard isn't very useful. But in terms of AI integration I believe processing power will be an issue. We have some drones that use stuff like Nvidia components, but we are not capable of making such advanced chips and I don't know if we will want to use those. You may know one of F35 block 4's most important upgrades is TR3 package which boosts processing power significantly. In terms of being a system of systems and managing other drones though I think our system would work fine: we have more experience with drones than UK and France.
In terms of stealthiness I think KAAN in next blocks will be decent. The biggest problem with B2 bomber was how maintenance heavy the RAM coating was, which was one of the issues F35 solved, we may have such issues but our RAM paint has already been shown to be quite good at reducing radar signal returns. The engine, IR signature and maybe certain aspects of geometry would have room for improvement.

It isn't optimal, but HW is not the biggest problem here. Turkiye just like anyone else have the choice of acquiring COTS chips that suits their needs and unless they become a definitive US adversary like China or Russia they would still be able to secure their supplies, since these are as the word suggest, "commercial" products. Be it FPGA, processing accelerator or NPU it's hard to imagine that there will be so much difficulties in finding at least one supplier.

The actual deficit is industrial capacity and capability on the SW side, especially since AI has a strong civil-military technological connection. There's quite a gap between what's in Turkiye/what Turkiye is capable of now, compared to what's going on elsewhere in other parts of the world. And those countires with advanced software capabilities also happens to be the developers and manufacturers of fighter jets. We'll get to know how much the Turkish research will be able to get up to speed in this part of future capabilities and time will tell.

edit: proof reading

 

[Windchime]

No, by 2045 KAAN will be in service with 8-10 Air Forces in numbers.
Probably around 500-550 KAAN will be produced in various blocks.

Those are some very optimistic numbers, especially for a fighter jet as large as Kaan.

B R U H
It'll initially start from 100 million, and gradually drop to 80 and less through economies of scale.

Mark my motherfucken words, when all is said and done, KAAN WILL OUTSELL THE F-35.

Sorry, not happening.

-Therefore I am quite optimisitc about the sales of KAAN not only KAAN but all sorts of Turkish Products from ordinary artillery shells to Manpads Anti tank missiles and Helicopters to corvettes to frigates to Unmanned land sea and Air platforms Flirs you name it even sub systems. Future is bright! The logic of Economy dictates that since we are manufacturing affordable quality.

Once more, very wishful thinking. Turkiye's edge in international arms market is supplying non-aligned, technologically advanced weaponery for relatively cheap price. This works well when the size of the deal isn't as big, but once the deal gets bigger, most developing countries demand massive amount of soft-loan and offset deals.

This is where traditional arms exporters, especially the likes of France who have a similar market position to Turkiye have the edge, who also happens to be very close to the core of international financial systems, have better access to credit and are in general just outright larger economies with larger pocket from which they could issue credit.

KAAN has a big enough airframe. Hypothetically, it can become 6th gen in later iterations with significant but doable changes.

We don't even yet know how and what we'll need to define as generational differences between 5th and 6th gen, so all these discussions about 'if Kaan could be 6th gen or not' really doesn't mean much for now.

Frankly speaking Hurjet training befor KAAN can only provide may be some very basic orientation to avionics set up ! KAAN will be a different kind of beast in every single way. Luckly Havelsan is in a diffrent league when it comes to simulators.

Embedded LVC - XR training is absolutely changing the advanced trainer landscape. If Hurjet is only capable of what you are talking about, that's just because Hurjet is that much behind compared to other advanced trainers around the world currently in the market.

Take a look at how western air forces are restructuring their pilot training programs and how they are planning to improve it further near term to meet 5th gen and 6th gen needs, and it's very clear that advanced trainers will become even more integral part of future air forces with advanced capabilities than they have been up until a couple of years ago.

Chances are that Hurjet could become much more advanced system than you think. If THK actually has such visions for that to become a reality, we'll see.

edit : proof reading

 

[Heartbang]

Unless Japan,korea,india and Eu turn to KAAN.....

I just hope KAAN can outell the Chinese Jets.

No need. Russia's MIC is marching into irrelevance. Those Flanker's aren't going to fly forever...

 

[Afif]

Thaose are some very optimistic numbers, especially for a fighter jet as large as Kaan.

Apperantly, I consider them as realistic numbers. Türkiye alone has a requirement for 250 airframes.
And you can almost be sure from current posturing that, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Qatar and Kazakhstan are pre-registered customers.

There are other countries that won't go for US or Chinese platforms.
For them relatively lucrative option is France, (not only for the soft loan, but also because of France's open minded approach to the arms sale) but then, their FCAS ain't coming before 2040s.

Tempset could be another option but it runs in to the same issues as US hardwares. ( too many political strings and cost overrun)

Also, my timeline is 2045. Which is btw, a really long time. Unless you are assuming many relatively large developing countries will stay poor even in next 15/20 years, then some of the hurdles you mentioned are not gonna apply by then.

 

[B_A]

Apperantly, I consider them as quite realistic numbers. Türkiye alone has a requirement for 250 airframes.
And you can almost be sure from current posturing that, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Qatar and Kazakhstan are pre-registered customers.

There are other countries that won't go for US or Chinese platforms.
For them relatively lucrative option is France, (not for the soft loan, rather, because of France's open minded approach to the arms sale) but then, their FCAS ain't coming before 2040s.

Also, my timeline is 2045. Which is btw, a really long time. Unless you are assuming many relatively large developing countries will stay poor even in next 15/20 years, than some of the hurdles you mentioned are not gonna apply by then.

They maybe choose Korean KF21

Also the Japanese toy if they do as well as they claimed(but i didnt trust any Japanese claims from 2005,their F-3 with UK would end like Dassault nEUROn,japanese super engine IHI Corporation XF9 slient more than 3years)

 

[uçuyorum]

Apperantly, I consider them as quite realistic numbers. Türkiye alone has a requirement for 250 airframes.
And you can almost be sure from current posturing that, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Qatar and Kazakhstan are pre-registered customers.

There are other countries that won't go for US or Chinese platforms.
For them relatively lucrative option is France, (not for the soft loan, rather, because of France's open minded approach to the arms sale) but then, their FCAS ain't coming before 2040s.

Also, my timeline is 2045. Which is btw, a really long time. Unless you are assuming many relatively large developing countries will stay poor even in next 15/20 years, than some of the hurdles you mentioned are not gonna apply by then.

Replacing each F16 with twin engine much more expensive KAAN will be difficult for sure, I imagine total number of KAAN + F16 would stay around 250-300, but retiring of most F16s can go beyond 2045.

 

[B_A]

Replacing each F16 with twin engine much more expensive KAAN will be difficult for sure, I imagine total number of KAAN + F16 would stay around 250-300, but retiring of most F16s can go beyond 2045.

I guess KAAN would be as few as J20 and F22

And KF21 or Upgraded version of Kızılelma will replace F-16 and MIG29s

​

 

[boredaf]

as few as J20

China recently decided to increase the production numbers of J-20, I remember reading about that. It'll still fall short of F-35 production numbers, but they are certainly aim to have a lot more of it. Not to mention, F-35 is having its own problems right now.

 

[Ryder]

5th gen platforms still have their problems now the problems would become more with 6th gen.

I dont think F16s, F15s all those those 4th gen planes wont be going any time soon.

Just like how the Ar15s and the Ak have been the standard issue rifle for a lot of armies still going strong despite newer and better platforms.

Kaan will be complimenting the F16s until they fully takeover it wont be soon either.

 

[Zafer]

Kaan will probably have a good decade of time to dominate fighter sales considering some of the market will be taken up by planes like the Kızılelma mostly from 4th gen fighters. F16, Rafele, and Eurofighter sales will decrease as F35 takes up a bigger chunk until Kaan kicks in. Once in Kaan, in its various incarnations can sell to countries left outside the F35 realm along with Kızılelma while 4th gens fall short against 5th gens.

 

[Bogeyman]

By the time KAAN will enter the inventory, BURFIS will probably have completed its tests. Therefore, looking at AESA radars for KAAN's operational capabilities blunts the real potential of the project.

If you are going to expect from the KAAN or compare it with the F-22, you should base it here. On the other hand, with KAAN BURFIS, sensor fusion will likely take its capabilities to a new level.

Of course, we are talking here without knowing exactly what the project can give us. However, our potential is not limited to the MURAD project. I wanted to remind him.

 

[Windchime]

No need. Russia's MIC is marching into irrelevance. Those Flanker's aren't going to fly forever...

You would know that two of the biggest overseas Flanker operators are India and China don't you? Apart from them, most international Flanker operators are those who've acquired them for a squadron or two.

Comparing that to F-35 program of record, F-35 orders from Korea and Japan alone covers the total number of Su-30 variants sold to countries apart from China and India. Add in Australian and Israel, then total Asia-Pacific region F-35 sales eclipse total sales figure of Su-27 and Su-30 variants operated and sold to anywhere other than China and India.

You're just understating how big of a market F-35 is placed in. Add Europe and it's not even close. This thing was developed to replace F-16 and Harrier.

Apperantly, I consider them as realistic numbers. Türkiye alone has a requirement for 250 airframes.
And you can almost be sure from current posturing that, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Qatar and Kazakhstan are pre-registered customers.

There are other countries that won't go for US or Chinese platforms.

250 aircrafts only for Turkiye is absolutely overblown.

As for Pakistan, you'll see, but the actual track record says otherwise.

Azerbaijan sure, they've joined the program afterall, and Kazakhstan maybe, but their numbers doesn't get anywhere near hundreads of aircrafts that's needed to meet your projection. Qatar's number one goal is to keep their weapons supply diversified and keep diplomatic relations through lucrative arms deals, so even if they get Kaan, it wouldn't be as much as they buy different western jets.

For them relatively lucrative option is France, (not only for the soft loan, but also because of France's open minded approach to the arms sale) but then, their FCAS ain't coming before 2040s.

Tempest could be another option but it runs in to the same issues as US hardwares. ( too many political strings and cost overrun)

That would't stop france from selling Rafales. Also they'll have an advantage in terms of being ITAR free until TF-35000 comes online.

Also, how are you so sure about cost overrun for GCAP when the project is just entering demonstrator phase? Moreover, GCAP will quite literally be in different market segment to Kaan in the first place. Same applies for NGF and the point is actually moot. What really matter is China.

Also, my timeline is 2045. Which is btw, a really long time. Unless you are assuming many relatively large developing countries will stay poor even in next 15/20 years, then some of the hurdles you mentioned are not gonna apply by then.

Yeah, and that's 15 years from 2030, around the time which Kaan is planned to be declared IOC. France have sold less than 300 Mirage 2000s abroad and that was a much cheaper aircraft, literally in the Gripen weight class, and again, all the while France had and still has much more experience in international arms sales, foreign influence and ability to issue credit.

Discussion about emerging market/developong nations' economic outlook is a topic for different thread, but if I am to be clear about one thing, it is the fact that middle income trap has been plaguing these so-called developing economies for literally decades. Only exceptions have been Taiwan and Korea in the last 3 deacdes and that's only two out of literally dozens. Even if we count PRC, they are really an outlier, and we'll be able to agree on that.

Without substantial increase of per capita productivity (which is the most important metric when it comes to tax revenue relative to the abaolute size of the economy) in these developong countries, there's no prospect of any substantial increase in military spending capabilities by these countries. And that proved to be incredibly difficult.

Also, if anything, apart from middle income trap, recent re-ashoring trends coupled with increasing capital cost of global warming, growing hurdles of entering more advanced industries, poor political and diplomatic decisions and plethora of other factors, now it's only getting less likely/harder that there will be any new developed, high income economy to emerge anywhere globally.

Sure, more countries will transition from being absolutely dirt poor to the status of "developing economy/emerging market" in the next decade, but ASEAN countries gives you a very good idea of what to expect from these emerging market countries when it comes to their procurement capacity and it isn't all that much.

Moreover, although it might be true that those specific countries you've mentioned above might not be interested in an arms deal with China, many more current emerging market countries are and same will be true for those who newly acquired that status. Just look at ASEAN, South Asian, West Asian and African region and it's clear as a day. If anything, China has only been demostrating that they have formidable capability in supplying weapons to other countries and are really starting to ramp up their involvement in recent year.

So TUSAS and Turkiye trying to pitch Kaan wouldn't only face competition from traditional players like France, but also from China. And China especially shares the same advantage of US made equippment, that they are acquired and operated in large numbers by the country of its origin, ensuring superb economics of scale and garaunteed life cycle support.

 

[Afif]

You would know that two of the biggest overseas Flanker operators are India and China don't you? Apart from them, most international Flanker operators are those who've acquired them for a squadron or two.

Comparing that to F-35 program of record, F-35 orders from Korea and Japan alone covers the total number of Su-30 variants sold to countries apart from China and India. Add in Australian and Israel, then total Asia-Pacific region F-35 sales eclipse total sales figure of Su-27 and Su-30 variants operated and sold to anywhere other than China and India.

You're just understating how big of a market F-35 is placed in. Add Europe and it's not even close. This thing was developed to replace F-16 and Harrier.


250 aircrafts only for Turkiye is absolutely overblown.

As for Pakistan, you'll see, but the actual track record says otherwise.

Azerbaijan sure, they've joined the program afterall, and Kazakhstan maybe, but their numbers doesn't get anywhere near hundreads of aircrafts that's needed to meet your projection. Qatar's number one goal is to keep their weapons supply diversified and keep diplomatic relations through lucrative arms deals, so even if they get Kaan, it wouldn't be as much as they buy different western jets.


That would't stop france from selling Rafales. Also they'll have an advantage in terms of being ITAR free until TF-35000 comes online.

Also, how are you so sure about cost overrun for GCAP when the project is just entering demonstrator phase? Moreover, GCAP will quite literally be in different market segment to Kaan in the first place. Same applies for NGF and the point is actually moot. What really matter is China.


Yeah, and that's 15 years from 2030, around the time which Kaan is planned to be declared IOC. France have sold less than 300 Mirage 2000s abroad and that was a much cheaper aircraft, literally in the Gripen weight class, and again, all the while France had and still has much more experience in international arms sales, foreign influence and ability to issue credit.

Discussion about emerging market/developong nations' economic outlook is a topic for different thread, but if I am to be clear about one thing, it is the fact that middle income trap has been plaguing these so-called developing economies for literally decades.

Without substantial increase of per capita productivity (which is the most important metric when it comes to tax revenue relative to the abaolute size of the economy) in these developong countries, there's no prospect of any substantial increase in military spending capabilities by these countries. And that proved to be incredibly difficult.

Also, if anything, apart from middle income trap, recent re-ashoring trends coupled with increasing capital cost of global warming, growing hurdles of entering more advanced industries, poor political and diplomatic decisions and plethora of other factors, now it's only getting less likely/harder that there will be a new developed, high income economy to emerge anywherr globally.

Sure, more countries will transition from being absolutely dirt poor to the status of "developing economy/emerging market" in the next decade, but ASEAN countries gives you a very good idea of what to expect from these emerging market countries when it comes to their procurement capacity and that's not much.

Moreover, although it might be true that those specific countries you've mentioned above might not be interested in an arms deal with China, many more current emerging market countries are and same will be true for those who newly acquired that status. If anything, China has only been demostrating that they have formidable capability in supplying weapons to other countries and are really starting to ramp up their involvement in recent year.

So TUSAS and Turkiye trying to pitch Kaan wouldn't only face competition from traditional players like France, but also from China. And China especially shares the same advantage of US made equippment, that they are acquired and operated in large numbers by the country of its origin, ensuring superb economics of scale and garaunteed life cycle support.

Anyway, let's agree to disagree than.

 

[Windchime]

Anyway, let's agree to disagree than.

There's nothing to disagree really. It's just a hard fact that new fighter have become more expensive even accounting for inflation, all the while inequalities in global scale have increased and there's more competition in the market.

Though, sure, if the numbers are right we'll see. If we could actually nail the numbers, we shouldn't be here typing in an amateure enthusiast forum but should be hired by the likes of Forecast Int, Teal or IHS Markit. Then, even those guys who are paid to make those guesses get it wrong plenty of times.

Hopefully this forum will continue to exist for the next two decades, so that we'll get to see who was right. Frankly, you being right would mean more global development so I'm not against it anyway.

 

[what]

One part of defence export success is financing. We lack the financial power to give out loans for countries to buy our equipment on debt.

 

[boredaf]

At this point, for me, there is zero chance that we'll receive any KAAN before 2030(optimistically speaking).

Timelines we always unrealistic. We might get them some as 4.5 gen jets, with foreign engines. But we are definitely not going to get them as true 5th generation jets with domestic engines designed specifically for 5th gen planes.