If Erdogan can actually mediate and bring some sort of peace.
I believe he deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.
The situation is more brittle than you might think, and something that Erdogan couldn't cope, I believe.
See the map here?
That's what the Ford CSG's eye and ear are in the Eastern Mediterranean right now, they could pick movements all the way to Western Iraq. We know that the 2 CSGs the U.S. Navy stationed there is a direct response to a "third party" which is unmistakeably Hezbollah/Iran.
I doubt Hezbollah will enter the war in significant means, but if they do and they're increasingly signaling so, you will find the theater of war expand from Gaza all the way to Iran, because Iranian proxies extend from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq...with direct links to Iran.
If the U.S wants to cripple Hezbollah they would do so by simultaneously engaging their sister organization in Iraq as well, the PMFs of Iraq. And cut any line of communication from Iran through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
In return, the Iranian faction could target U.S. positions in Syria, particularly the Tanf border crossing base which looks like an Island in areas controlled by the Iranian faction.
In retaliation, the U.S could fly sorties either from the 2 carrier strike group or from allied Arab states like Jordan (Muwaffaq As-Salti AFB), Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan AFB). But this could prove a dilemma because of the emotional state in the Arab world in regards of their kinsmen in Palestine, putting the Arab monarchs in these states in limbo to give clearance for the operation.
A U.S. attack emanating from Arab states could also trigger the long-Iranian threat of raining missiles at those airbases, further expanding the chaos.
Also, if the situation compels, the U.S. could find ways to drag NATO into this, article V is of course only activated if the sovereign land of member countries are attacked, but I believe there's some way to circumvent this. Diego Garcia which is officially a sovereign UK territory hosting U.S troops will be in the crosshairs as well, and this could trigger article V. Which means war with Iran.
If NATO article V is activated, Turkiye will be compelled to participate in the conflict as well, which means your cities and air bases will now be targets of Iranian missiles, in retaliation your warplanes (and NATO's) would sortie to Iran.
This is not something within Erdogan's power to stop.
www.reuters.com
