Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Afif]

If Ukraine can hang on another 8'ish months, their supply of artillery shells is going to grow exponentially as we move towards 2025.

Here is recent breakdown of expanding Western artillery shell production capacity. It will increase substantially throughout 2024, and by 2025 the West's shells production will be more than enough to keep Ukrainian artillery pieces firing is near perpetuity.

2025 capacity...

USA DOD: 1,200,000
Rheinmetall: 700,000-800,000
BAE: 500,000-750,000
Nexter: 120,000-150,000
Europlasma: 150,000-180,000
General Dynamics: 50,000-75,000
South Korea: 200,000-300,000
Poland: 75,000-100,000
Czech Republic: 75,000-100,000
Sweden: 75,000-100,000
Finland: 75,000-100,000
Ukraine domestic: 75,000-100,000
All other sources: 200,000-300,000

By 2025 the West will have the capacity to produce between 4,000,000-4,500,000 artillery shells per year. If 2,500,000 of those shells go to Ukraine, they'll have the capacity to fire more than 208,000 shells per month, a sustained rate of 7,000 shells per day. Among those shells will be tens of thousands of GPS guided shells, that are extremely deadly when combined with Western counter battery RADAR.

Afaik, US DoD plants are operated by General Dynamics and BAE system in USA. Counting them sperately would be misleading.

 

[Sanchez]

Türkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria Sign Memorandum Against the Mine Threat in the Black Sea​

"The expectations of our non-coastal allies to this organization are valuable, but this initiative will only be open to the ships of the three coastal ally countries. Contributions from other coastal countries to the Black Sea in specific areas, as agreed, can occur over time and when conditions are appropriate, again with the unanimous agreement of the three countries."

Türkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria Sign Memorandum Against the Mine Threat in the Black Sea

At the ceremony held in Istanbul, the National Defence Minister Yaşar GÜLER, Romania`s Defence Minister Angel TILVAR, and Bulgaria`s Deputy Defence Minister Atanas ZAPRYANOV signed the

www.defenceturkey.com

 

[UkroTurk]

Manufacturing a million shells for Ukraine: the European Union made an important promise

11.01.24



The European Union made an important promise to produce a million shells for Ukraine

Now the European Union does not say when the manufactured shells will be delivered to Ukraine.


This was announced at a briefing in Brussels by the press secretary of the European Commission for the internal market, defense industry and space, Johanna Bernsel, and the representative for foreign affairs and security policy of the European Commission, Peter Stano. In particular, as Bernsel said, the European Commission is confident that the annual production capacity of the European defense industry will achieve its goal of producing one million shells.



At the same time, as Stano said, by the end of 2023, more than 300 thousand shells for ground-based installations and 3 thousand 300 rockets from existing reserves had been delivered to Ukraine. “We have at least 180 thousand shells for which orders have already been placed as of the end of December, but this number is increasing in accordance with existing contracts,” Stano said.

According to him, more deliveries of shells are in progress and more contracts are being fulfilled because we are talking about joint procurement. In particular, more than 20 framework contracts are already being implemented to provide Ukraine with at least 180 thousand shells.

EC AV PORTAL

audiovisual.ec.europa.eu

 

[UkroTurk]

Victory Is Ukraine’s Only True Path to Peace


And EU and NATO Membership Are the Only Way to Achieve Enduring Security

Victory Is Ukraine’s Only True Path to Peace

EU and NATO membership are the only way to achieve enduring security.

www.foreignaffairs.com

As long as Putin is in charge, Russia will always threaten not just Ukraine but also the security of all of Europe. It is therefore vital for the democratic world to ensure that a free and independent Ukraine prevails. To do so, it should put in place the security architecture needed to deter a militaristic and imperialistic Russia. If Putin sees the West making strong commitments to Ukraine—through military assistance, accession to the EU, and membership in NATO—he will finally understand that he cannot outlast Kyiv. Only then is there a possibility of a sustainable peace.

 

[UkroTurk]

Administration must enable Kyiv to take “back its airspace.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4400276-putin-is-weaponizing-ukrainian-civilians/

His targets? Ukrainian civilians — men, women and children. As Putin’s counteroffensives stall in Avdiivka, Kupiansk and elsewhere in the Donbas, the Kremlin has sought to achieve a military advantage for its beleaguered forces by putting Ukrainian noncombatants in the crosshairs of its Iranian supplied Shaded drones, Kinzhal missiles and Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers.




Putin is forcing Kyiv to deploy the bulk of its Patriot and other missile defensive systems in and around its major population centers.









As the war in Ukraine devolves into trench warfare resembling World War I across most of its 600-mile front, Zelensky and his generals are reaching a critical inflection point this winter. This is largely of Washington’s making.

Capitol Hill’s ongoing failure to fully fund the war militarily and economically in Ukraine is one major factor. So is the Biden Administration’s failed military strategy when it comes to correctly assessing what Zelensky and his generals need in terms of military capabilities and protection of Ukrainian civilians.


Defending Ukraine for as long as it takes is a recipe for a forever war. It will not win the war. It is also a recipe for ensuring Putin continues to target civilians. The former is allowing Putin to perpetrate the latter, if not unintentionally incentivizing him to do so.

Washington must change course, and fast. Pfarrer is correct in his assessment that the Biden Administration must enable Kyiv to take “back its airspace.” Not only the airspace over Ukraine’s major population centers, but over the front lines in the Donbas and in the south in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The Ukrainians need weapon systems to attack the Russians’ launch sites, their crews, and their missile/drone storage facilities.

 

[Soldier30]

A group of Russian military personnel came under attack from cluster shells from the Ukrainian army. The unique first-person video was taken in the Kremensky forest; judging by the video, no one was hurt. Presumably the attack was caused by a 155 mm cluster shell. At the moment, no one has ever made such video footage. The video has been shortened.

 

[UkroTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1740789720928624721

 

[Relic]

Afaik, US DoD plants are operated by General Dynamics and BAE system in USA. Counting them sperately would be misleading.

General Dynamics Ordinance and Tactical Systems Canada is who I was referring to when I noted "General Dynamics". They produce shells in Quebec, Canada.

BAE also creates artillery shells in Southern Wales and Northern England. Their operations are not limited to their U.S. based production lines.

 

[Afif]

General Dynamics Ordinance and Tactical Systems Canada is who I was referring to when I noted "General Dynamics". They produce shells in Quebec, Canada.

Yes, but iirc, General dynamics also run 1/2 massive US army production plants on US soil.

BAE also creates artillery shells in Southern Wales and Northern England. Their operations are not limited to their U.S. based production lines.

That's right, they have plants in South Africa and elsewhere.

 

[Relic]

Yes, but iirc, General dynamics also run 1/2 massive US army production plants on US soil.



That's right, they have plants in South Africa and elsewhere.

I'm not suggesting that you're incorrect, but the numbers I'm referencing are accurate from any source I can find.

For example, GDOTS in Quebec has a standing contract to produce 3000 domestically made shells per month. Those shells are made exclusively in Canada. They have surge capacity up to 6000 shells per month, which they produced while Canada was involved in the War in Afghanistan. 6000×12 is 72,000, hence the 50,000-75,000 range I provided. Those shells are completely seperate from the 1.2 million shells USA plans to create domestically by 2025.

My point being that there was no attempt on my behalf to mislead folks in the thread. I simply should have stated that the General Dynamics I was talking about in this instance was the Canadian division and, that their shell production was / is seperate from American domestic production.

 

[Relic]

Britain revealed that the AIM-132 ASRAAM air defense missiles that they have sent to Ukraine are intercepting aerial targets at a 90% success rate. The ground launched ASRAAMs are being fired from an undisclosed number of Supacat HMT mobile launch platforms (essentially a truck with a big enough bed for the launcher) and are being used as short range air defense, largely against drones and slower missiles.

Britain recently noted that they will send Ukraine an additional 200 AIM-132 ASRAAM missiles for air defense purposes. It is believed that Ukraine is operating approximately 6 Supacat HMT launch platforms to fire the missiles.

It's unclear how many ASRAAM missiles Britain has in stock, and it's also unclear how many they produce each year. What we do know is that they are created by British defense contractor MBDA, they have an effective range of more than 25km, and they cost approximately 255,000 usd each to build (cost effective for a modern missile). It's likely that Britain could send upwards of 500 ASRAAMs to Ukraine by 2025, at a reasonable cost of approximately $128 million usd.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-send-200-air-defence-missiles-ukraine-2023-12-29/#:~:text=LONDON%2C%20Dec%2029%20(Reuters),of%20defence%20said%20on%20Friday.

 

[UkroTurk]

Russia attacks 'arrogant British' after Sunak visits Ukraine to announce new aid

Officials say the £2.5bn package will provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition and maritime security - with Rishi Sunak stressing the UK's continued backing for Kyiv, amid Ukrainian fears interest in their war against Russia is flagging.

news.sky.com

Officials said the £2.5bn package will provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition and maritime security - with Rishi Sunak stressing the UK's continued backing for Kyiv, amid Ukrainian fears interest in the war against Russia is flagging.

 

[Relic]

Following up on UkroTurk's post above. Britain has announced that they will provide Ukraine $2.5 Billion pounds ($3.2 Billion usd) worth of military aid in 2024. Initial deliveries of contents from this new package will begin in in April. The package includes the following...

- Unknown quantities of additional Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

- Unknown quantities (200 initially) of AIM-132 ASRAAM air defense missiles.

- Unknown quantities of 155mm and 105mm artillery shells.

- Unknown types of drones, valued at 200 million pounds. "The largest quantity of drones thay Ukraine has received from a single source since the outbreak of the war". The drones will be assembled in Britain and shipped to Ukraine throughout the year.

Sunak vows that Ukraine will never be alone as he pledges £2.5bn package

Rishi Sunak announces the package, the largest since Russia's invasion, on a surprise trip to Kyiv.

www.bbc.com

 

[UkroTurk]

Russia for the first time announced about ADM-160 MALD



01/12/24



ADM-160 MALD developed by USA

Officially, Ukraine did not receive these missiles from its allies.

The Russian Ministry of Defense in its report for the past week announced the destruction of two MALD-type missiles from Ukraine.

“Aviation of the Aerospace Forces and air defense assets destroyed two MALD aircraft guided missiles within a week [...],” the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

ADM - 160 "MALD" is a kind of hybrid between a drone and a missile. They are launched from aircraft and play the role of “decoys” for loading enemy air defense systems. The flight range of such missiles is 460-570 km, depending on the modification.

More Evidence That Ukraine Secretly Got ADM-160 MALD Decoy Drones From the U.S. | Defense Express

With all the secrecy shrouding this unannounced supply, at least two important remain unknown: when the Ukrainian Air Force received them and what aircraft is used for launch

en.defence-ua.com

 

[UkroTurk]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-more-attack-aircraft-war-effort-ground-forces-commander-2024-01-12/

Ukraine's ground forces commander said on Friday that Kyiv need more military aircraft for its war effort, such as U.S. A-10 attack jets to support infantry and planes that could fire long-range cruise missiles.

"The A-10s will provide critical support to ground forces as they try to seize the initiative against a well-equipped enemy", Syrsky said. He added that attack helicopters such as the AH-64 Apache and AH-1 Super Cobra, as well as the UH-60 Black Hawk, could also play an important role.

 

[Ecderha]

Ukraine drone used as artillery. Many salvos on ruzzians

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1745783740775698663

 

[Relic]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-more-attack-aircraft-war-effort-ground-forces-commander-2024-01-12/

Ukraine's ground forces commander said on Friday that Kyiv need more military aircraft for its war effort, such as U.S. A-10 attack jets to support infantry and planes that could fire long-range cruise missiles.

"The A-10s will provide critical support to ground forces as they try to seize the initiative against a well-equipped enemy", Syrsky said. He added that attack helicopters such as the AH-64 Apache and AH-1 Super Cobra, as well as the UH-60 Black Hawk, could also play an important role.

I'm not going to sit behind a screen and pretend that I know what Ukraine needs more than their military does, but I can't see a reality in which A-10s would be at all survivable in the current landscape, for the same reason that both Ukraine and Russia have been losing SU-25s at such an alarming rate. CAS is great in an environment where you have air superiority, but neither side does right now.

I can see the need for Blackhawks and the desire to have Apaches and Super Cobras, but even those would have a hard time surviving in these conditions. The training timeline for pilots and cost of each airframe don't lend to the idea of these being a short term solution.

 

[Relic]

More information regarding the $255 million usd worth of drones that Britain will send Ukraine. The package will consist of drones numbering in the "tens of thousands" and they will be assembled in both Britain and Ukraine. The drones will be broken down into 3 categories....

- Long range attack.
- Surveillance.
- FPV munition carrying.

UK allocates £200 million to manufacture drones for Ukraine

The UK will allocate £200 million to manufacture various drones for the Ukrainian military.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[UkroTurk]

I'm not going to sit behind a screen and pretend that I know what Ukraine needs more than their military does, but I can't see a reality in which A-10s would be at all survivable in the current landscape, for the same reason that both Ukraine and Russia have been losing SU-25s at such an alarming rate. CAS is great in an environment where you have air superiority, but neither side does right now.

I can see the need for Blackhawks and the desire to have Apaches and Super Cobras, but even those would have a hard time surviving in these conditions. The training timeline for pilots and cost of each airframe don't lend to the idea of these being a short term solution.

Longer than 600km battle line. Land Forces can't defend every attack in every step. Sometimes Russians are heavily trying to infiltrate in Ukrainian lines. So at some points Ukrainian Land Forces urges CAS.



armed UAVs are on the top of their limitations.
How to prevent enemy? Just from artillery? Ukraine also needs Decreasing loses and supporting weakened ground defense points .

Also currently the war between trenches and artillery battalions. Need to destroy enemy artillery.

So low flying, rapid, heavily armed aircrafts are vital , CAS aircrafts don't care about air superioty as they don't infiltrate deep inside Russian airspace.

 

[Relic]

Longer than 600km battle line. Land Forces can't defend every attack in every step. Sometimes Russians are heavily trying to infiltrate in Ukrainian lines. So at some points Ukrainian Land Forces urges CAS.



armed UAVs are on the top of their limitations.
How to prevent enemy? Just from artillery? Ukraine also needs Decreasing loses and supporting weakened ground defense points .

Also currently the war between trenches and artillery battalions. Need to destroy enemy artillery.

So low flying, rapid, heavily armed aircrafts are vital , CAS aircrafts don't care about air superioty as they don't infiltrate deep inside Russian airspace.

A-10's are just such an easy target in modern warfare. There is a reason the USA is phasing them out quickly (age of airframe not withstanding). There are moder. Helicopter platforms with much better CAS capabilities, IMO, although I acknowledge that they're not likely to make their way into Ukrainian hands any time soon.

If you're going to provide Ukraine a multirole aircraft with good ground attack ability, I'd rather see them sent a couple squadrons of Panavia Tornadoes. I prefer their weapons payload to that of an A-10 and I think they'd be much more survivable in these conditions. Britain, Germany and Italy have retired significant quantities (dozens of them) over the the past decade. Many could probably be "brought back to life" fairly quickly.

By early 2025 (if you started training pilots now) you could probably convert existing SU-25 pilots, bolstered by a cohort of fresh trainees, into capable Tornado pilots. 24-36 airframes could likely be reasonably delivered between now and the end of the first quarter of 2025.