Good, there are lots of artillery, tanks snd IFVs lost by the Russians in a single day, with very few Ukrainian losses.
It has been an enormous week of loses for the Russians as they push into Avdiivka, which is what you would expect trying to conquer well fortified positions.
That said, Ukraine is losing reasonably high number of quality Western equipment as well. They've lost (some are likely repairable) 7 documented M777s in the last week. They've also lost at least 4 (possibly as many as 6) Western donated SPGs.
Obviously we know that Ukraine needs hundreds of thousands of artillery shells in short order, but they also need more Western artillery to keep up with expected attrition.
Namely, they need the following.
200 Additional M198 towed howitzers from USA
: There are roughly 400 of these units in U.S. storage as they were replaced by the M777s. They are still accurate, however, with quality range. They would serve Ukraine as a better version of the Soviet made D-30.
50 Additional M777 towed howitzers from USA
: Ukraine has had approximately 85 (roughly half) of the M777s donated to them damaged / destroyed in the war. A significant number of those damaged are being repaired and returned to battlefield. That said, there are also a significant number (at least 40-50) that have been completely destroyed. An additional 50'ish from U.S. stockpiles would replenish that destroyed total. BAE is restarting production on the M777 immediately, therefore, the U.S. would be able to backfill as required, with some lag time.
30-40 M109 self-propelled howitzers from the EU
: Ukraine has received more than 150 M109s, but like the M777s, expected attrition is taking place. Europe still has a reasonable quantity of M109s in storage, and there others in Europe that belong to private arms dealers. These could be bought up and sent to Ukraine in relatively short order.
62 Additional CAESAR self-propelled howitzers from France
: The French have noted that they will produce 74 CAESARS this year and they are looking for buyers to send them to Ukraine. Ukraine has purchased the first 6 units and France has purchased the next 6 units for Ukraine. Other donors have an opportunity to step up and buy the remaining 62 units that will be produced in 2024 (roughly 6 per month).
72 Additional Bohdana self-propelled howitzers made in Ukraine
: The Ukrainians now vlaim that they are able to produce 6 units per month of their new, domestic, howitzer. If that's indeed the case, they need to ensure that production remains constant for the foreseeable future. Replacing Soviet artillery with these new weapons would go a long way towards helping Ukraine achieve an edge in quality, accuracy and range of howitizers being used across the front.
In the short term, when combined with units that have already been ordered and are now being delivered, the above would ensure that Ukraine has plenty of quality artillery throughout 2024.
time.com
