I would be very suprised to see 7-8 TF2000 enter service in under 10 years. Especially combined with other projects of the Navy ongoing (AC+OPV+TTHB+MILDEN) I think budget wise it is impossible. I would be satisfied with having 3 ships in service by that date honestly and 2-3 more under contract.
Üstad, really I don't know if the share of the naval forces in the defense budget will increase, but the total amount allocated to construction activities will continue to increase at very significant rates. My forecast is that the dramatic increases in the overall budget will continue. Of the three main topics that make up this forecast, the first one is regional and national risk factors, the other one is that the delayed procurement planning will start back-to-back as the efforts that have been going on for more than 20 years finally start to materialize, and my forecasts for the macro-economic structure in 2025-2035.
As a concrete example, I think one of the most important indicators is the focus on the launch of aircraft carrier construction activities between 2025 and 2027. By the time this platform is in active service - let's assume 2034-35 - the Turkish navy should have a fleet structure capable of carrying an aircraft carrier. The other issue is the overseas basing strategies and the navy's doctrines of relevance, which are becoming more and more evident. As you know, it was recently decided to send another frigate to Somalia. When the strategic rapprochement and logistical cooperation with Iraq is evaluated within the framework of cooperation with Qatar, there is another sea area from Basra to the Oman Sea where the Turkish navy's effectiveness will definitely increase. the issue is not limited to these, in fact, there are some plans that go as far as ASEAN zone, but there will be too much speculative discussions yet. In short, the work underway today is not in today's conditions, but in the years that are planned to be in service... Even now, frigates going to Somalia are a significant burden for the Turkish navy.
As a matter of fact, while 3 frigates are in the slipway and a new construction decision has just been taken for 3 frigates, there is an extraordinary effort to start the construction of the first destroyer in 2024. From this point of view, I am of the opinion that, just like the I class, after the production of the first ship in Pendik, parallel production of the Air Defense Destroyers will be initiated in parallel while the sea tests are still in progress. Private shipyards may very well deliver the first ships to the navy in 36 months and the secondary ships in 48-60 months. Maybe the final date for the example above will be 2035 and not 2033, but I don't doubt it, because regional conditions indicate that a regional risk is imminent and the acceleration in naval programs confirms that this risk is taken seriously.
By the way, while I was writing in many places around 2017 that the same shipyards would build a total of 8 I-classes with parallel production in 2 batch and justifying this with the statements of the then naval forces and and naval shipyards commanders of that time and some other developments, many of our friends were producing counter-arguments such as only 4 I-classes would be produced, then TF-2000 and finally TF-100. Because that was what was accepted in the forums. I would like to share this as an anecdote also...