Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[blackjack]

Most sources say that Russia has the 11th highest GDP in the world.

eg https://www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/top-10-largest-economies-in-the-world/86159/1

What is happening with the ruble? That's complicated. Suffice to say that it is forecast to keep falling, leading to higher inflation, higher interest rates to counter that inflation, resulting in lower business profitability, hence lower investment.

Russian Ruble - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News

The USDRUB decreased 0.9207 or 0.90% to 101.8211 on Monday January 20 from 102.7417 in the previous trading session. Russian Ruble - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on January of 2025.

tradingeconomics.com

you went from its falling its falling, to actually its complicated lol? This is what I meant by you shouldnt hyperventilate yourself over unnecessary things.

I dont know where you are seeing 11th place?

 

[blackjack]

Zelensky is going to be put in an interesting negotiation spot with Trump and Putin in a few weeks or so if there is going to be a fast collapse after Pokrovsk
Does Motor Sich have some kind of contracts with Turkey's engine drones?

 

[Soldier30]

Footage from the Ukrainian drone operator training simulator. The drone simulator is intended for the Ukrainian military and is not distributed among civilians. The peculiarity of the Ukrainian drone simulator is that all the maps in the simulator are real and allow not only to practice the skills of a drone operator, but also to study the terrain of Ukraine. The video in the simulator shows an episode of the interception of a Russian-made Orlan drone.

 

[Spitfire9]

you went from its falling its falling, to actually its complicated lol? This is what I meant by you shouldnt hyperventilate yourself over unnecessary things.

I dont know where you are seeing 11th place?
View attachment 73220

Your source quotes PPP rather than GDP. Not the same thing. I gave you a link from an economics site. Here is another list on wiki

List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[blackjack]

Your source quotes PPP rather than GDP. Not the same thing.

yeah I was talking about PPP as it pertains to economy.

 

[contricusc]

yeah I was talking about PPP as it pertains to economy.

PPP doesn’t help when importing things. You pay in nominal dollars, not in dollars adjusted for PPP.

 

[blackjack]

PPP doesn’t help when importing things. You pay in nominal dollars, not in dollars adjusted for PPP.

1. 1st of all he said GDP not nominal GDP. 2. Purchasing power is a great estimate for economic strength despite the country's own debt being pretty low compared to others. There is a reason why they use GDP as an estimate to reference economies as being small or big and not nominal GDP.

What we do know is that the negotiations can start in a few weeks or a few months which from the looks of things Ukraine is at the end of the cliff from having the Russians get passed one of their final defensive fortifications. Zelensky is going to be in a very interesting place for negotiations presenting Trump that the Russians took half his country to a guy that personally rejected his invitation to his own inauguration but not other leaders that wanted to be invited.

I dont know about spitfire9 but there is a 99.9% chance of Russia getting what it mostly wants from those negotiations and finishing the war before they will somehow magically collapse before reaching the negotiating table.

 

[Spitfire9]

What we do know is that the negotiations can start in a few weeks or a few months which from the looks of things Ukraine is at the end of the cliff from having the Russians get passed one of their final defensive fortifications. Zelensky is going to be in a very interesting place for negotiations presenting Trump that the Russians took half his country to a guy that personally rejected his invitation to his own inauguration but not other leaders that wanted to be invited.

I dont know about spitfire9 but there is a 99.9% chance of Russia getting what it mostly wants from those negotiations and finishing the war before they will somehow magically collapse before reaching the negotiating table.

I agree that it is uncertain how long it will take Russia to break through Ukrainian ground defences. It is also uncertain how long the Russian economy/government finances can last out before something cracks in a big way. Which will happen first?

I have no idea how long Ukraine's ground defences can hold out.

I think that the wealth fund will run dry of liquid assets (rubles, yuan, euros, gold) in a few months. Short of Russia starting to print money or taking money from citizens' bank accounts the Russian government will run out of money this year.

I think that companies will start failing if base rate is not lowered or unless further funding becomes available to them soon. I read that Gazprom and Rosneft are planning to cut their workforce and I guess that many other companies will be planning to cut back as a defensive move.