TR Space Space Programs

[hugh]

I don't know, you're probably right, I don't believe it either, but they have stated that 100 low satellites will be put into low orbit in the next 5 years.
That being said, it's still realistic as these are very small satellites, 100-300 kg probably. They can stow and launch several at a time in a SpaceX rocket if they book the space in the rocket. Look in contrast what Starlink has and Amazon Kuiper has.

Starlink 6000 low orbital satellites
Amazon Kuiper will send 2000 low orbital satellites
Fergani wants to send 100 low orbital satellites.
The numbers at Fergani are much more conservative and the traffic at Fergani is completely different for drones, communication and positioning in military applications.

it's not just about the size of the satellites.

BAYKAR will have to develop;

- satellite bus
- inter-satellite laser links
- user terminals
- satellite ground systems
- mass production of the constellation

and of course the US has to be willing to launch your LEO based military constellation, which is not a given.

 

[Strong AI]

and of course the US has to be willing to launch your LEO based military constellation, which is not a given.

Fergani Space Launch Vehicle...
- 50 tons
- Liquid fuel rocket engine
- first test rocket to be launched in 2026
- first stage vertical landing system

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1850178305502158972

I think 50 tons is the mass of the Space Launch Vehicle, not payload.
"Fergani’s 100 kg class micro satellite platforms will operate at an altitude range of 500-600 km. These satellites will provide communication and positioning services and will be operating in the Ku, Ka, S and L bands for global coverage."

https://www.ferganispace.com/en/services/satellite-constellations/

 

[Strong AI]

I really doubt Fergani's satellite swarm will be proprietary for Baykar drones. And I think your timeline is a bit too optimistic.

The official timeline is 120 satellites until 2030. It is mentioned in this news.

The first satellite made by Fergani Space, owned by Baykar's Chairman of the Board, Selçuk Bayraktar, will be launched into space today.

Weighing less than 100 kilograms, the satellite named FGN-100-d1 will be launched into space aboard SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket as part of the Transporter-12 mission.

Fergani’nin ilk uydusu bugün uzaya gönderiliyor – Tolga Özbek

tolgaozbek.com

 

[hugh]

@Strong AI

It is a contingency plan but that rocket doesn't exist yet. And I don't think it can be developed in a timely manner that would not impede the progress of the satellite constellation.

Developing turbopumps, liquid-propellant engines, reusable-rockets are much more difficult than their entire satellite program. I don't expect orbital launch from Fergani in this decade, let alone recovering and reusing the first stage. ROKETSAN has spent about a decade making a much smaller and simpler version of Fergani's launch vehicle but haven't been able to reach orbit yet.

 

[Strong AI]

@Strong AI

It is a contingency plan but that rocket doesn't exist yet. And I don't think it can be developed in a timely manner that would not impede the progress of the satellite constellation.

Developing turbopumps, liquid-propellant engines, reusable-rockets are much more difficult than their entire satellite program. I don't expect orbital launch from Fergani in this decade, let alone recovering and reusing the first stage. ROKETSAN has spent about a decade making a much smaller and simpler version of Fergani's launch vehicle but haven't been able to reach orbit yet.

Fergani doesn't have to wait for their own space launch vehicle. Looks like Roketsan's will be ready by next year.

Once the MSLV project currently underway at the Satellite Launch Space Systems and Advanced Technologies Research Center of Roketsan is complete, scheduled for 2026, it will be possible to place microsatellites weighing 100 kilograms and below in a Low Earth Orbit at an altitude of at least 400 kilometres.

https://www.roketsan.com.tr/products/micro-satellite-launching-system-msls

 

[hugh]

Fergani doesn't have to wait for their own space launch vehicle. Looks like Roketsan's will be ready by next year.

https://www.roketsan.com.tr/products/micro-satellite-launching-system-msls

it's a rocket that will launch 100kg to 400km altitude. Fergani has higher altitude requirements. So it won't be able to lift a single Fergani satellite. And even if it did, do you reckon producing and launching 100 rockets for 100 micro-satellites?

and also, the polar orbits will require more delta Vs. so it won't be able to yeet 100kg to it.

 

[Sanchez]

Looks like Roketsan's will be ready by next year

I think "ready" means something very clear. Rocket science is easy enough to track. It's a big rocket that can be watched from land, air and space. When MSLS is ready, we will know that it's ready. They have plenty of test launches to conclude until then.

And Fergani's satellite swarm is made up of satellites in the 100 kilo range. Their first test sat is 102 kilos and I believe sits at a higher orbit than MSLS is designed for. That means 100 MSLS launches for 100 satellites. Hardly a cost effective way, we need bigger. Way bigger.

 

[Strong AI]

to 400km altitude.

"at least 400km"

I think "ready" means something very clear. Rocket science is easy enough to track. It's a big rocket that can be watched from land, air and space. When MSLS is ready, we will know that it's ready. They have plenty of test launches to conclude until then.

Roketsan itself says completed in 2026.