https://www.linkedin.com/posts/acti...p&rcm=ACoAABRzwOgBmvlODrT2TXS8kMlaF5yTaJ8QTAc
Israeli Professor
Yaakov Garb (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) has published a report [1] including IDF estimates (!) of the remaining population in Gaza in the enclaves Gaza city (1 million), Central (0.35 million) and Mawasi (0.5 million), in total 1.85 million surviving Palestinians, which corresponds to an estimated number of 2,226,544 - 1,850,000, ie 376,544, killed people as of June 3, 2025 [2].
This corresponds to an extrapolation of the estimated number of killed people in an article which was published in The Lancet in July 2024 [3]. Linearly extrapolating the estimated death count in Gaza from June 2024 to May 2025, the estimated death count is about 20 month / 9 month * 186,000 = 413,333 killed people.
This corresponds to a citizen science project to estimate the number of killed people, which estimated 426,000 killed people until May 2025 [4].
The proportion of residents of the population of Gaza between an age between 0 years and 14 years was 40.4% in 2023 [2]. Assuming indiscriminate killing (ignoring reports of targeted killings of children by the IDF), the estimated number of killed children between 0 and 14 years ranges between 152,124 and 172,104 killed (young) children.
In addition, Garb's (2025) report, concludes regarding the studied Israeli/American/GHF aid distribution compounds: "The internal layout of these compounds seems to bear the deep imprint of their military context and mindset. Their architecture is the inverse of well accepted and tested principles of food distribution in conflict or disaster areas, and liable to cause recurrent episodes of chaos and violence. ... This setup seems likely to generate a cycle of security incidents that are then claimed to justify soldiers shooting and killing aid-seekers. "
Considering mass starvation in combination with continuing military attacks on the civilian population and other health risks (eg, infectious diseases), a super-linear increase of the death count is expected in the future, including potential tipping points after no more food is available.
Refs:
[1] Garb, Yaakov, 2025, "The Israeli/American/GHF “aid distribution” compounds in Gaza: Dataset and initial analysis of location, context, and internal structure",
https://lnkd.in/diaiXFpH, Harvard Dataverse, V1
[2]
https://lnkd.in/daGwQW65
[3] Khatib, Rasha et al (2024). Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential. The Lancet, Volume 404, Issue 10449, 237 - 238.
[4]
https://lnkd.in/dkaUfmWP
View attachment 76075