Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Russia today occupies about 120,000 sq km of the territory it recognised officially as Ukrainian, That leaves about 480,000 sq km still under Ukrainian control. If Russia occupies a further 4,800 sq km of Ukraine each year it will take another 100 years to occupy all of Ukraine.

How fast is Russia advancing? Needs to be near 15 sq km a day to meet that 100 year schedule.

 

[Agha Sher]

Russia today occupies about 120,000 sq km of the territory it recognised officially as Ukrainian, That leaves about 480,000 sq km still under Ukrainian control. If Russia occupies a further 4,800 sq km of Ukraine each year it will take another 100 years to occupy all of Ukraine.

How fast is Russia advancing?

It is ridiculous to assume this to be a linear pattern. If things continue as is, at some point Ukraine will collapse. As Ukraine is running out of men, I expect this collapse to be 2-3 years away.

 

[blackjack]

Russia today occupies about 120,000 sq km of the territory it recognised officially as Ukrainian, That leaves about 480,000 sq km still under Ukrainian control. If Russia occupies a further 4,800 sq km of Ukraine each year it will take another 100 years to occupy all of Ukraine.

How fast is Russia advancing? Needs to be near 15 sq km a day to meet that 100 year schedule.

Sadly, more fighting age Ukrainian men die in a day more than babies being born in Ukraine. Zelensky said this like a week ago.

Unless you have a good argument that teenagers, kids and toddlers can fend off Russians?

 

[Spitfire9]

It is ridiculous to assume this to be a linear pattern. If things continue as is, at some point Ukraine will collapse. As Ukraine is running out of men, I expect this collapse to be 2-3 years away.

Yes, it is a ridiculous hypothesis. I used it to illustrate how absurd are the claims of great progress by Russian apologists when Russian troops take 2 sq km or 3 sq km after an assault possibly lasting weeks.

I don't know when Ukraine is likely to run out of military manpower. Could be 6 months. Could be 1 year, 2 years, 5 years. That is not what will end the war IMO. I think this war is a war of physical attrition on Ukraine's side, economic attrition on the Russian side. If Russian revenues from oil sales do not rise or spending on the war fall, Russia will fall into a great big financial hole with no IMF, World Bank, BRICS Bank to rescue it. Russian banks have started to signal to the central bank that they may soon need support due to lack of funds.

 

[blackjack]

Yes, it is a ridiculous hypothesis. I used it to illustrate how absurd are the claims of great progress by Russian apologists when Russian troops take 2 sq km or 3 sq km after an assault possibly lasting weeks.

I don't know when Ukraine is likely to run out of military manpower. Could be 6 months. Could be 1 year, 2 years, 5 years. That is not what will end the war IMO. I think this war is a war of physical attrition on Ukraine's side, economic attrition on the Russian side. If Russian revenues from oil sales do not rise or spending on the war fall, Russia will fall into a great big financial hole with no IMF, World Bank, BRICS Bank to rescue it. Russian banks have started to signal to the central bank that they may soon need support due to lack of funds.

-They lowered their mobilization age from 27 to 25
-They gave a time window for 18-22 year olds to leave to, "continue their education abroad" as Zelensky put it.
-18-25 year olds are required to take mandatory basic training which starts September 1st, which looks like they might lower the mobilization age to 18.
-Where is the economic attrition? There are still no signs that they are heading to an economic collapse.

As usual, full display of intelligence by your average pro-Ukraine user on this thread.

 

[Spitfire9]

-Where is the economic attrition?

Sorry, if you do not believe that Russia is subject to economic attrition, I would just advise you to read / listen to what economists and analysts worldwide are reporting and saying about the Russian economy. The info is there. I read it. I suggest you give it a try, too.