Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Russia today occupies about 120,000 sq km of the territory it recognised officially as Ukrainian, That leaves about 480,000 sq km still under Ukrainian control. If Russia occupies a further 4,800 sq km of Ukraine each year it will take another 100 years to occupy all of Ukraine.

How fast is Russia advancing? Needs to be near 15 sq km a day to meet that 100 year schedule.

 

[Agha Sher]

Russia today occupies about 120,000 sq km of the territory it recognised officially as Ukrainian, That leaves about 480,000 sq km still under Ukrainian control. If Russia occupies a further 4,800 sq km of Ukraine each year it will take another 100 years to occupy all of Ukraine.

How fast is Russia advancing?

It is ridiculous to assume this to be a linear pattern. If things continue as is, at some point Ukraine will collapse. As Ukraine is running out of men, I expect this collapse to be 2-3 years away.

 

[blackjack]

Russia today occupies about 120,000 sq km of the territory it recognised officially as Ukrainian, That leaves about 480,000 sq km still under Ukrainian control. If Russia occupies a further 4,800 sq km of Ukraine each year it will take another 100 years to occupy all of Ukraine.

How fast is Russia advancing? Needs to be near 15 sq km a day to meet that 100 year schedule.

Sadly, more fighting age Ukrainian men die in a day more than babies being born in Ukraine. Zelensky said this like a week ago.

Unless you have a good argument that teenagers, kids and toddlers can fend off Russians?

 

[Spitfire9]

It is ridiculous to assume this to be a linear pattern. If things continue as is, at some point Ukraine will collapse. As Ukraine is running out of men, I expect this collapse to be 2-3 years away.

Yes, it is a ridiculous hypothesis. I used it to illustrate how absurd are the claims of great progress by Russian apologists when Russian troops take 2 sq km or 3 sq km after an assault possibly lasting weeks.

I don't know when Ukraine is likely to run out of military manpower. Could be 6 months. Could be 1 year, 2 years, 5 years. That is not what will end the war IMO. I think this war is a war of physical attrition on Ukraine's side, economic attrition on the Russian side. If Russian revenues from oil sales do not rise or spending on the war fall, Russia will fall into a great big financial hole with no IMF, World Bank, BRICS Bank to rescue it. Russian banks have started to signal to the central bank that they may soon need support due to lack of funds.

 

[blackjack]

Yes, it is a ridiculous hypothesis. I used it to illustrate how absurd are the claims of great progress by Russian apologists when Russian troops take 2 sq km or 3 sq km after an assault possibly lasting weeks.

I don't know when Ukraine is likely to run out of military manpower. Could be 6 months. Could be 1 year, 2 years, 5 years. That is not what will end the war IMO. I think this war is a war of physical attrition on Ukraine's side, economic attrition on the Russian side. If Russian revenues from oil sales do not rise or spending on the war fall, Russia will fall into a great big financial hole with no IMF, World Bank, BRICS Bank to rescue it. Russian banks have started to signal to the central bank that they may soon need support due to lack of funds.

-They lowered their mobilization age from 27 to 25
-They gave a time window for 18-22 year olds to leave to, "continue their education abroad" as Zelensky put it.
-18-25 year olds are required to take mandatory basic training which starts September 1st, which looks like they might lower the mobilization age to 18.
-Where is the economic attrition? There are still no signs that they are heading to an economic collapse.

As usual, full display of intelligence by your average pro-Ukraine user on this thread.

 

[Spitfire9]

-Where is the economic attrition?

Sorry, if you do not believe that Russia is subject to economic attrition, I would just advise you to read / listen to what economists and analysts worldwide are reporting and saying about the Russian economy. The info is there. I read it. I suggest you give it a try, too.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of strikes by Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drones on a Ukrainian army UAV launch site. The Ukrainian UAVs were launched in a forested area near the settlement of Kirovo in the Zaporizhia direction. It was not possible to determine which unit launched the drones. The Russian army used Geran-2 drones with direct control. Judging by the video, the drone strikes were quite accurate.

 

[Relic]

Estonia has announced $120 million usd in military aid for Ukraine in 2026. Most of the funds will be spend in Estonia, with a portion reserved for the Czech artillery shell initiative. The majority of the funds will be spent on:

- Drones
- Artillery Shells
- Small Arms
- Small Arms Amunition

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/estonia-to-allocate-over-e100-million-for-military-aid-to-ukraine-in-2026/

 

[Soldier30]

Episode of a Russian special forces ambush on a Ukrainian pickup truck. The location of the shooting is not reported, the video is shortened. Since the video is quite harsh, you can see its continuation in the Telegram channel, the link to it is below. As a result of the battle, four Ukrainian soldiers were killed.

Part two

Лампа знаний - армия, техника, оружие

Засада спецназа России на пикап армии Украины. Часть 2 (+18) / Russian special forces ambush Ukrainian army pickup. Part 2 (+18)

t.me

 

[blackjack]

I would just advise you to read / listen to what economists and analysts worldwide are reporting and saying about the Russian economy

The same economists and analysts that said Russia will economically collapse 2 weeks at the start of the war?

I need actual proof like this

 

[Soldier30]

Archival footage of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile hitting a Ukrainian M142 HIMARS MLRS. The HIMARS MLRS was shelling the Kursk region of Russia and tried to hide in the forest. The HIMARS MLRS was developed in 1996 in the United States. A Russian UAV tracked the Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS, after which an Iskander-M missile was launched. As a result of the strike by the Russian Iskander-M missile, the Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS was destroyed. The location of the filming is not reported, the video was filmed in August 2024.

 

[Spitfire9]

The same economists and analysts that said Russia will economically collapse 2 weeks at the start of the war?

I need actual proof like this
View attachment 77401

Western observers and analysts greatly overestimated the effect sanctions would have on the ability of the Russian economy to keep functioning. Many predicted that the Russian economy would quickly descend into chaos with sectors relying on western tech more or less ceasing to function. They were wrong.

I don't recall reading any economists predicting the Russian economy would collapse in a couple of weeks after sanctions were imposed.

Three years after sanctions were applied, some sectors may have more or less ceased to function. The extreme example: production of airliners fell to zero in 2024 and (when I last checked) one so far in 2025. Do Russians really believe Putin's assurance that Russia will produce a thousand new Russian airliners by 2030? Do Russians know that at the rate of progress shown since the invasion, it will take around 4 more years to occupy the rest of Zaporitzia? Putin is prepared to accept high manpower losses but would he be able to cope with several hundred thousand more casualties to occupy the rest of that oblast? By the way, British intelligence is reported to put the number far higher - more like two million.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone strikes on the launch site of Ukrainian Jupiter Hunter-1 reconnaissance UAVs. The Jupiter Hunter-1 UAV was developed in Ukraine jointly with the Slovak military company DefTech a.s. The Jupiter H-1 VTOL UAV can take off vertically and has a range of up to 250 km, with a payload of 2 kg and a flight time of up to 3 hours. With a payload of 10 kg, the Jupiter H-1 drone can fly for 1.5 hours, covering a distance of up to 150 km. Control can be via Starlink; without it, the range is up to 150 km. The camouflaged command post for the Ukrainian UAVs was located near the village of Doroshenkovo, northeast of Shostka.

 

[MaciekRS]

Best sanctions are doing Ukrainians by blowing up rafinery after rafinery for the last month.
Keep going

 

[blackjack]

Western observers and analysts greatly overestimated the effect sanctions would have on the ability of the Russian economy to keep functioning. Many predicted that the Russian economy would quickly descend into chaos with sectors relying on western tech more or less ceasing to function. They were wrong.

I don't recall reading any economists predicting the Russian economy would collapse in a couple of weeks after sanctions were imposed.

Three years after sanctions were applied, some sectors may have more or less ceased to function. The extreme example: production of airliners fell to zero in 2024 and (when I last checked) one so far in 2025. Do Russians really believe Putin's assurance that Russia will produce a thousand new Russian airliners by 2030? Do Russians know that at the rate of progress shown since the invasion, it will take around 4 more years to occupy the rest of Zaporitzia? Putin is prepared to accept high manpower losses but would he be able to cope with several hundred thousand more casualties to occupy the rest of that oblast? By the way, British intelligence is reported to put the number far higher - more like two million.

santa clause delivering presents seems more likely than what news sources you follow

-Russia has shown to have spare manpower with 100k troops training exercise in Belarus where they even invited the U.S. army as observers.
-Left Azerbaijan's oil facilities running for 3 in a half years and only bombed them because of some corridor deal with the US.
-Budanov and Zelensky state there is no more of Ukraine ever regaining any territory as in lack of manpower for another major offensive meaning it will just be Russia slowly eating away their territory.
-Ukraine's 18-year-olds have mandatory basic training requirements which looks like a set date for November to introduce a final mobilization law.

It doesn't really look like they are at the end of the rope to me.

 

[blackjack]

Best sanctions are doing Ukrainians by blowing up rafinery after rafinery for the last month.
Keep going

Bober Kurwa your country can't shoot down a 10k dollar drone in which they can produce 500 a day according to Ukraine with a million-dollar missile.

 

[Soldier30]

Residents of Kharkiv published footage of a September 16 attack by a Russian Geranium-2 kamikaze drone on the building of the Ukrainian Institute for Advanced Training of Pharmaceutical Specialists at the National Pharmaceutical University of Ukraine (NUPh) in Kharkiv. According to Russian media, the National Pharmaceutical University of Ukraine (NUPh) trained tactical medics and medical teams for the front. Ukrainian media denies this.