With Saudi, UAE Gone, Why Israel & India Could Even ‘Snatch-Away’ Pakistan’s New Best-Buddy – Turkey?

[Zapper]

With Turkey and Israel set to overcome their differences and get their ties back on track, experts believe that Pakistan would be watching anxiously as Israel and its key ally India having already pulled Islamabad’s strongest ally – the UAE and Saudi Arabia on its side would be gunning for Turkey?

Israel has started to be recognized by prominent Islamic nations including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, while it has stuck a partial deal with Morocco with the help of Donald Trump. Many experts believe that once Saudi Arabia joins the list, it could open doors for more Islamic nations to join in including Pakistan.

Before the peace deal signed by the UAE, Sudan, and Bahrain, no Arab country except Egypt and Jordan had any formal relations with Israel. Others have been reluctant to accept Israel unless a two-state solution is reached.

According to media reports, Turkey has appointed an ambassador to Tel Aviv more than two years after it cut off diplomatic ties. There had been no ambassador in either country since May 2018, after the United States in 2017 decided to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The United Nations had then passed a resolution condemning Trump’s move.

Turkey has now selected a new ambassador to Israel, Ufuk Ulutas, 40, who is currently serving as the chairman for the Center for Strategic Research at the Turkish Foreign Ministry, said a report in Al-Monitor, citing “well-placed sources.”

Media reports claim that the reason behind this move could be to please Washington. Days before Joe Biden takes over as US President, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) over the latter’s acquisition of the S-400 missile system from Russia.

Rift With Saudi Arabi And UAE

Despite several efforts, Islamabad failed to receive any support from Saudi Arabia on the Kashmir issue. At the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Riyadh turned down Pakistan’s request to convene a session.

Angered over Pakistan’s pressure to support its Kashmir stance, Riyadh withdrew a $1 billion interest-free loan it had extended to Islamabad and also refused to renew a deferred oil payments scheme, which was meant for easing their import bill.

Over the years, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have enjoyed fruitful relations with Riyadh extending financial aid and oil supply to Pakistan.

Not just Saudi Arabia, but Pakistan is now at loggerheads with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as well. After the UAE and Israel signed the peace deal, brokered by Washington, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has refused to establish any ties with Israel until the Palestinians get their rights.

There have been reports of a split between the Saudi Arabia royal family as King Salman remains firm on his stance of the boycott of Israel unless Palestinians receive a separate state. However, the crown prince is in favor of normalizing the kingdom’s relations with Israel, said a report in the Wall Street Journal.

Experts’ Take

Abhijit Iyer Mitra, a senior fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, told EurAsian Times that Turkey never broke off ties with Israel; they just called their ambassador back. Now sending a new one again is “purely a secretarial task”.

Analysts believe that the dilemma that Pakistan faces is that, if it gives in to Israel, then a precedent would be established on the Kashmir issue as well.

“They can’t grasp the Arab inwardness that ignores Kashmir, which they often equate with the Palestinians living under ‘Israeli tyranny,” wrote Khaled Ahmed, consulting editor, Newsweek Pakistan.

However, Iyer-Mitra says there is no connection between Kashmir and the Palestinian issue.

“The greatest sentiment issue for the Palestine issue was in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. After normalizing relations with Israel, have you seen any violent protest in Sudan, the UAE, and Bahrain due to this?” he asked.

On being asked whether Islamabad’s foreign policy may see a change with respect to Israel, Iyer-Mitra said that Pakistan can’t change its foreign policy, unlike all these other countries that have now normalized ties with Israel, and are much more developed and “don’t have strong terror outfits as in Pakistan”.

“The UAE and Saudi Arabia’s disappointment with Pakistan has nothing to do with Israel and is a bilateral issue,” Iyer-Mitra argued. “Even if Pakistan normalizes relations with Israel, it won’t solve its problems with Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, Pakistan’s refusal to send its army in the Yemen war has also created a distance between the two allies,” Iyer-Mitra stated.

He concluded King Salman might be willing to overlook Pakistan’s actions due to “the old affection between the states” but the crown prince and de facto King of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is “not willing to forgive Pakistan’s actions”.

“Even King of UAE, Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan has an anti-Pakistan stance for a long time but he plays number two to Saudi Arabia,” he said.

With Turkey normalizing ties with Israel, Nitin J Ticku, an expert on international affairs believes that this could be another attempt by Israel to pull Turkey on its side after winning the Arab world.

Not only there are ongoing efforts to pressurize Pakistan to recognize Israel but there would be attempts to improve ties between Turkey and India in order to isolate Pakistan and snatch-away Islamabad’s new best buddy.

I hope we all remember how Malaysia completely changed its policy overnight after the departure of Mahathir Mohamad. This could also be the case with Turkey and once Erdogan departs, Pakistan would have to start from scratch, Ticku concluded.

https://eurasiantimes.com/with-saud...-snatch-away-pakistans-new-best-buddy-turkey/

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

Could Israel and Turkey become close allies again? Yes, it is already happening behind closed doors.

Could they "snatch" Turkey away from Pakistan? No.

 

[Zafer]

There needs to be a major shift in Israel's policies for anything good to happen to them from Turkey. With any government in Turkey.

 

[Nilgiri]

Eurasiantimes is pretty sensationalist.

Count all chickens before they hatch, or are even laid heh.

We welcome Turkey improving its relations with Israel and we will see what doors that open later for more dialogue with India too. Nothing set in stone permanently

But generally for any significant improvement in relationship probably needs new political leadership in Turkey as first thing since relations are not so great for India with Erdogan....but that is of course for Turkish people to decide upon.

For time being, India rather focus on continuing to expand trade relations with Turkish people...it is more solid underlying basis to take relationship forward when time is more opportune for it:

India - Turkey Archive

All news and analysis regarding India - Turkey relations, esp from Indian context/perspective etc. ================== https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/turkey-india-trade-grows-steadily/1878776#:~:text=%22Surpassing%20%248%20billion%20trade%20volume,told%20Anadolu%20Agency%20on%20Tuesday...

defencehub.live

Give me 8 billion trade relationship with far more people involved (and going to grow to 10+ and then 20+ in future and quickly)....than any special political relationship where you trade less than a billion a year with them.

It just shows what the many people want and are interested in, compared to what political leaders etc want and are more interested in.

I factor in the many regular "day to day" folks first thing...and well over the few loudmouthed "ill show up at KL, pinkie promise!" leaders and elitists always.

 

[Saithan]

Eurasiantimes is pretty sensationalist.

Count all chickens before they hatch, or are even laid heh.

We welcome Turkey improving its relations with Israel and we will see what doors that open later for more dialogue with India too. Nothing set in stone permanently

But generally for any significant improvement in relationship probably needs new political leadership in Turkey as first thing since relations are not so great for India with Erdogan....but that is of course for Turkish people to decide upon.

For time being, India rather focus on continuing to expand trade relations with Turkish people...it is more solid underlying basis to take relationship forward when time is more opportune for it:

India - Turkey Archive

All news and analysis regarding India - Turkey relations, esp from Indian context/perspective etc. ================== https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/turkey-india-trade-grows-steadily/1878776#:~:text=%22Surpassing%20%248%20billion%20trade%20volume,told%20Anadolu%20Agency%20on%20Tuesday...

defencehub.live

Give me 8 billion trade relationship with far more people involved (and going to grow to 10+ and then 20+ in future and quickly)....than any special political relationship where you trade less than a billion a year with them.

It just shows what the many people want and are interested in, compared to what political leaders etc want and are more interested in.

I factor in the many regular "day to day" folks first thing...and well over the few loudmouthed "ill show up at KL, pinkie promise!" leaders and elitists always.

I'm sure Turks could say the same about India with Modi

Also, I'd prefer a friendly relation with any nation where the trade balance is in my favour (looks jealousy at China).

But Turkey backing out from supporting Pakistan and Kashmir, not gonna happen.

I won't rule out that many countries are willing to sell their principle stances for national interests, e.g. Egypt and the military coup as an example, but I hope Turkey will hold firm.

Not because I think it'll fix relation or trade balance if you just hold your ground, but if you keep developing your country and introduce new elements then something might change.

e.g. I don't see any happy ending for Palestine, not considering how Israel has been expanding ever since the 6 days war, and I guess everyone can look at tell. So unless it is a slow death, a slower progress than what Hitler attempted, the result may well be the same.

That is why the world needs to stand firm and fair.

Otherwise we might as well just sell nukes like candy and let suppressed people take matters into their own hands.

Who'd want to live in a world like that ?

 

[Nilgiri]

I'm sure Turks could say the same about India with Modi

Well I didn't see much difference when we had earlier administrations (Manmohan Singh INC etc)....given Erdogan has been in power a long time now.

When it was more typical CHP admin or whomever it was in the 90s in Turkey...there wasn't quite this approach by Turkey govt either.

It leads me to believe that Erdogan is the larger constant driving this approach.

But I leave it up to Turkish electorate to decide on both his foreign policy and internal policy.

Just like I leave it for Indian one to decide on Modi's.

Also, I'd prefer a friendly relation with any nation where the trade balance is in my favour (looks jealousy at China).

I don't quite look at it that way in preferences. We have huge trade imbalance with lot of countries.

This is not necessarily a bad thing off the bat, it depends on the later value addition within Indian economy (w.r.t capacity, natural availability, opportunity cost and capital investment trade-offs needed w.r.t whats being imported)...that is larger recipe for analysis given comparative advantages in free markets driving the trade in first place.

But going more zero-sum on it for sake of argument, I know Indian potential (and needs) going forward and the importance of making good relations with as many significant countries as possible given that (they will be good markets and suppliers for India downroad too because of good relations formed now etc)

The caveat I hold is that they are not directly+overtly causing us security/conflict problems as matter of policy and/or have grandiose scale of humans right abuse (within them) like the 3rd reich for example.

Turkey to me fills none of those 2 criteria, so its just best to delineate political administration (if its being biased on some issue toward us) from the people at large who voice something else more nuanced and balanced.

But Turkey backing out from supporting Pakistan and Kashmir, not gonna happen.

We prefer to simply receive the ball, rather than pitch it back w.r.t some countries.

Everyone says "dont throw stones out of a glass house" from time to time, but geopolitics has other considerations and priorities.

Would I support India open up criticism of Turkey's own "K" issue at the geopolitical realm?...because of Erdogan admin's little stunts and dramas?

Not really, Turkey gets enough flak on it already (both from outside and from within because its democratic state).

It would serve no purpose than to antagonise Turkish public at large against us....and we are 1.4 billion people that need to keep options open with future in mind.

I follow basis of internal affairs to be left to internal affairs....as long as the country has basic credible democratic setup with good foundation like say Turkey has.....so it actually has recourse to address a long term problem within its territory (and has the politicians, activists, discourse, debate to show for it w.r.t tragedies and violations of past and present regarding whatever sensitive internal issue security-identity matrix existed and exists) without doing say extremist totalitarian-collectivist route like in reich, stalin-era or PRC.

I judge Turkey setup more in the end on people like Ataturk vision for it. There is always great potential there for Turkey to improve upon and it has route for it....whatever speed bumps come up like Erdogan (imo).

The ideal approach for criticism w.r.t human rights problems, is to look at the first word: human. It should not be tainted by any identity....the issue in the end is do people all have the same human worth. Thus I would have no problem with any world leader or political dispensation criticizing India on Kashmir (w.r.t human rights basis), if they do the same commensurate consistency and scale worldwide at large (and including their own country too)....with any human rights problems....especially with due deference to clear evidence and scale.....so that they don't equate uighur concentration camps with say a much smaller scale one (as say to the scale+level of habeas corpus infringement).

Whatever misunderstanding a regular non-politician Turk may have to follow the same approach Erdogan or whichever political administration Turkey has at the time (w.r.t Kashmir being selectively brought to bear for criticism in a world full of human rights problems)...I also approach that in good faith way (given they are a regular joe) that they are merely uninformed of the context like lot of average joes tend to be worldwide.

Like for example do they know context of Kashmir w.r.t Bangladesh given the human rights basis is quite fundamental to this former part of Pakistan....and South Asian region more broadly. I mean could Erdogan or any Turkish foreign affairs dept person explain to me what they know about Kashmirs political history during the time before, during and after the events of how Bangladesh formed into a country became glaring and apparent (to Kashmiri leaders and regular people)?....given what the rationale (Takfiri + extremist racism to put it quite brutally) was by the Pakistani govt of the time.

Quite recently, Turkey - BD relations for example entered a low point when Erdogan admin attacked Bangladesh govt for prosecuting and executing a number of war criminals related to its formation as a country.

Like would a Turkish political administration, even on basis of purported islamic countries being a priority...hold Pakistan to be higher on that than Bangladesh (another majority muslim country) going forward?...to conduct such a criticism/attack that was obviously driven to be more music to selective Pakistani admin ears?

Something seems to be resolved more now though (Turkey even competing for MRSAM contract with BD now).

So maybe Turkish ambassador+coterie was invited to see Bangladesh liberation war museum for himself? So he could update and rectify and course correct Erodgan admin on a sensitive internal foundational matter for Bangladesh....in some similar way to how the "Archer Blood telegram" eventually did for the US closer to the time of the genocide war crime events.

At least I would suppose something of that manner. But it is to show context and how politicians can get that quite wrong (and they should know better given their responsibility and duties)....but I hold regular people different to politicians...and will excuse them given they likely are not aware of such.

I won't rule out that many countries are willing to sell their principle stances for national interests, e.g. Egypt and the military coup as an example, but I hope Turkey will hold firm.

Thats all opinion (given the context I just showed) and can go towards any country in the end on nearly any matter....depending on point of view.

Not because I think it'll fix relation or trade balance if you just hold your ground, but if you keep developing your country and introduce new elements then something might change.

Again it depends if the consistency and credibility is actually rooted on the issue. It needs context. Politicians rarely have any given their responsibility and power at hand.

e.g. I don't see any happy ending for Palestine, not considering how Israel has been expanding ever since the 6 days war, and I guess everyone can look at tell. So unless it is a slow death, a slower progress than what Hitler attempted, the result may well be the same.

I wouldn't put it anywhere close to the scale we see in Uighur area. Israel literally has 20% arab population and representatives in their govt.

Ditto Kurds in Turkish govt and politics.

Ditto Kashmiris in Indian govt and politics.

Same for Baloch in Pakistan govt and politics.

Name me one Uighur in China of this role and activism to help their people? Just one will do.

Things are relative.

That is why the world needs to stand firm and fair.

Again if we are talking about the world, it needs cognisance to what a human right consistent approach is.

Otherwise its picking and choosing and filtering and skewing.

Otherwise we might as well just sell nukes like candy and let suppressed people take matters into their own hands.

Who'd want to live in a world like that ?

Kind of extreme black and white situation. There is lot of inbetween, the world exists at varying shade of grey here....there are larger principles recognised ideally, but they are not implemented the same for various reasons everywhere you look. We can talk bout great scales of these violations.... but there is no real devolvement and nihilism that I see is just to let things collapse to complete destructive anarchy on the mere presence of evil occuring. It is better as many people as possible highlight, confront and act against evil....because evil is always going to exist...and has always existed.

@Joe Shearer