Canada Air-Force RCAF Legacy Hornet replacement program

[Nilgiri]

I’ve recently seen this at some media outlets and social media but I only take it seriously because of the poster, Mr. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a well respected defense analyst.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989676206720160118

“By the way, @saab is in talks with Canadian Bombardier for the licensed production of the Gripen. The Gripen was being proposed to Canada instead of the F-35. It is claimed that production here is also planned to be carried out for Ukraine.”

@Nilgiri et al
It seems that Saab is eager for such a deal but will Canada reciprocate Swedish will, considering they snoozed off the decision for quite a while in regards to sour relations in Trump era?

A look into the matters right now:

Canada’s battle of the fighter jets: F-35 vs the Gripen

Everything you need to know about the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets.

ottawacitizen.com

I personally think the F-35 faction will win out in the end, especially since:

- Canada is commited to the 16 (out of the earlier 88 total thats put on hold, that DND is pausing the report on proceeding with given the Trump issues i.e sovereignty blabbing and tarrifs etc)

- Existing industrial partnerships (SAAB is offering a new one, but it is fresh out of the block compared to the long term one Canada has forged with LM and its partners already in operation)

- NORAD, yes the Gripen is a NATO operated platform and Sweden itself has now joined NATO.....but there is simply another scale of dividend with being closely operable with the USAF given the scale of what the F-35 is, and how it will be taken forward to 6th Gen etc.

The Gripen would have made much more sense much earlier acquisition wise as a straight 1:1 replacement for the legacy hornets. i.e to have squadron bulk assured for the 2030s etc. i.e that window when superhornet and rafale etc also came into contention when F-35 "Cost issue" reshaped that program back in late 2000s and early 2010s.

Then have a 5G program separate to it, where the F-35 is natural contender and it then becomes a straight open/shut case of relations with US to take that forward. But Canada has been deficient on military spending w.r.t NATO levels (PM Carney is only addressing this now) that adds to all the time wasted and in-clarity. i.e this approach needed a much earlier commitment by Canada to raise defence to 2% of GDP and then 3% etc to support an (optimal) dual acquisition. Canada also could not have foreseen Trump 2nd term taking these contours it has...nothing to suggest it from trump first term.

Well we can only wait and see how the relationship goes in the coming months, what (stupidity) Trump will move away from and give pre-existing relationship to take shape again.

 

[Ripley]

A look into the matters right now:

Canada’s battle of the fighter jets: F-35 vs the Gripen

Everything you need to know about the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets.

ottawacitizen.com

I personally think the F-35 faction will win out in the end, especially since:

- Canada is commited to the 16 (out of the earlier 88 total thats put on hold, that DND is pausing the report on proceeding with given the Trump issues i.e sovereignty blabbing and tarrifs etc)

- Existing industrial partnerships (SAAB is offering a new one, but it is fresh out of the block compared to the long term one Canada has forged with LM and its partners already in operation)

- NORAD, yes the Gripen is a NATO operated platform and Sweden itself has now joined NATO.....but there is simply another scale of dividend with being closely operable with the USAF given the scale of what the F-35 is, and how it will be taken forward to 6th Gen etc.

The Gripen would have made much more sense much earlier acquisition wise as a straight 1:1 replacement for the legacy hornets. i.e to have squadron bulk assured for the 2030s etc. i.e that window when superhornet and rafale etc also came into contention when F-35 "Cost issue" reshaped that program back in late 2000s and early 2010s.

Then have a 5G program separate to it, where the F-35 is natural contender and it then becomes a straight open/shut case of relations with US to take that forward. But Canada has been deficient on military spending w.r.t NATO levels (PM Carney is only addressing this now) that adds to all the time wasted and in-clarity. i.e this approach needed a much earlier commitment by Canada to raise defence to 2% of GDP and then 3% etc to support an (optimal) dual acquisition. Canada also could not have foreseen Trump 2nd term taking these contours it has...nothing to suggest it from trump first term.

Well we can only wait and see how the relationship goes in the coming months, what (stupidity) Trump will move away from and give pre-existing relationship to take shape again.

Thanks for clarifying one more time where Canada stands At this point.
Most people, are not aware of the fact that Canada and USA kinda interwoven at defense of North America.
Guess wait and see is the name of the game.
Oh, and btw, you’re right. His first term was not as harassing as his current one.

 

[Nilgiri]

I merged the newer thread with the older pinned thread.

======================================================

Leaked F-35 scorecard sparks political turbulence in Ottawa

A leaked Department of National Defence document comparing the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets is adding tension to Ottawa’s still-unresolved decision. Read on

winnipegsun.com

The internal chart shows the U.S.-built F-35 significantly outperforming Sweden’s Gripen across multiple military and technical categories.

Canadians say selecting the best fighter jet for the job matters more than jobs: Nanos

As the Canadian government reviews its commitment to purchase American-made Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, a new poll shows what Canadians think should be prioritized in procuring replacements to the aging CF-18s.

www.ctvnews.ca

Asked what was most important to them, 40 per cent of those surveyed said having the fighter jet that is the best solution for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF). Another 28 per cent said picking the jet that generates the greatest number of Canadian jobs.

“What this shows is that if the government decides to change tact, it’s actually going to have to explain why,” said Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos.

(More at links)

 

[Ripley]

I merged the newer thread with the older pinned thread.

======================================================

Leaked F-35 scorecard sparks political turbulence in Ottawa

A leaked Department of National Defence document comparing the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets is adding tension to Ottawa’s still-unresolved decision. Read on

winnipegsun.com

The internal chart shows the U.S.-built F-35 significantly outperforming Sweden’s Gripen across multiple military and technical categories.

Canadians say selecting the best fighter jet for the job matters more than jobs: Nanos

As the Canadian government reviews its commitment to purchase American-made Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, a new poll shows what Canadians think should be prioritized in procuring replacements to the aging CF-18s.

www.ctvnews.ca

Asked what was most important to them, 40 per cent of those surveyed said having the fighter jet that is the best solution for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF). Another 28 per cent said picking the jet that generates the greatest number of Canadian jobs.

“What this shows is that if the government decides to change tact, it’s actually going to have to explain why,” said Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos.

(More at links)

The opposing Canadian politicians’ argument that this much money going out without any domestic jobs gain sounds more than financial concerns. I think this is more of a political stand off with Trump and show of resolution. My two cents.

 

[oldcpu]

I suspect current politics of the current US administration in terms of tariffs on Canada will make it increasingly difficult for Canada to proceed down the F-35 route for all 88-fighter aircraft. While the tariffs are not on the F-35 procurement, the surrounding US tariffs on other aspects of Canadian export goods to USA is muddying the waters. The possibility of a mixed air wings of 16-F-35s and 72 Gripen (together with 6 global eye AEW aircraft) is going to look more and more attractive to Canadian politicians, as US rhetoric gets louder and louder against Canada. What was once a clear 88 F35 acquisition for Canada, is being made more obscure by the day, due to US politician and diplomat statements.

 

[mehmed beg]

I don't see why would Canada get Gripen, Typhoon is much better choice. Longer range which is important as Canada is huge country, more choice of the weapons , European engines, security of 2 engines . Global Eye is very good choice, the only thing is that the workload on smaller crews is pretty big but it is still good choice

 

[oldcpu]

I don't see why would Canada get Gripen, Typhoon is much better choice. Longer range which is important as Canada is huge country, more choice of the weapons , European engines, security of 2 engines . Global Eye is very good choice, the only thing is that the workload on smaller crews is pretty big but it is still good choice

one word: "cost".

It is 'cost' that is causing the consideration to reduce the F-35 purchase to 16-aircraft. The Typhoon is more expensive by far than the Gripen.

Note this is only under consideration. It is not approved. Maybe with the Canadian plan to increase the defence budget to 2% of GDP ,and eventually to 3.5% of GDP for hard core military aspects, that the F35 program will survive as is. However the current US political rhetoric is making this difficult for the RCAF to stay with the F35.