Canada Air-Force RCAF Legacy Hornet replacement program

[Ted Barnes]

As far as both the LM F35A AND the CSC Frigate projects go, it is not a forgone conclusion until the contracts are awarded and signed by LM & Irving shipyard. Any thing could happen as you well know and things could alter, so let's just wait and see.

Sorry I am of the opinion that they are too big to fail but your right lets wait and see as have to don't we.

 

[Saithan]

I can understand the initial F35 needing to be improved and such. But surely acquiring a few squadrons to work on the logistics and training the pilots would have been a good investment.

 

[Nilgiri]

I can understand the initial F35 needing to be improved and such. But surely acquiring a few squadrons to work on the logistics and training the pilots would have been a good investment.

More importantly, they could have packaged the decision making this way too (wait for better models, get stuff in interim), rather than a whole program restart+recycle.

 

[Nilgiri]

Canada finalizes agreement to buy 88 US F-35 fighter jets

Canada has finalized an agreement with Lockheed Martin Corp. and the United States government to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets.

apnews.com

TORONTO (AP) — Canada will spend billions to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin Corp. in a deal announced Monday that aims to end years of deliberations over its aging fleet and fulfill obligations to defend North America’s air space.

The first four aircraft are anticipated to be delivered in 2026 with full operational capacity for the fleet expected between 2032 and 2034.

The government has budgeted about $19 billion Canadian (US$15 billion) for the purchase in what is the largest investment in the Royal Canadian Air Force in more than 30 years. Each jet costs about US$85 million. The full life cycle of the program is expected to cost $70 billion (US$52 billion).

Canada has a close defense relationship with the United States, which includes joint missions over North American air space. Canada also has obligations under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The announcement comes as Trudeau is set to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden at the North American Leaders’ Summit in Mexico.

The government said last year Lockheed Martin’s F-35 was deemed to be the top-ranked bidder for a new fighter jet to replace aging F-18s, deciding against Boeing’s Super Hornet. Meanwhile Canada purchased some Australian F-18s to help extend the life of the Canadian F-18 program until 2032.

Before becoming prime minister, Trudeau had said Canada wouldn’t buy the F-35. A former Conservative Canadian government had announced the purchase of the F-35 in 2010 but Trudeau’s Liberal government delayed that purchase and opened up the bidding to competition.

“As our world grows darker with Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine, and China’s increasingly assertive behavior in the Indo-Pacific, this project has taken on heightened significance especially the importance of interoperability with our allies,” Defense Minister Anita Anand.

“We need to ensure that especially in this changing global strategic environment we are that we are fulfilling our obligations to NORAD and to NATO.”

Asked about the Liberals change in position, Anand said: “The aircraft has matured. And we see now that many of our allies, eight countries in particular, are using the F-35.”

Lockheed Martin in a statement said a total of nine nations are currently operating F-35s, with more than 890 jets in service today.

Last month, German lawmakers gave the go-ahead for the purchase of 35 F-35 fighter jets.

Nelson Wiseman, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, said it was inevitable that Canada would opt for the F-35, especially since many other western allies have bought the F-35.

“The Liberals opposed the purchase a few years ago when they were in opposition. They did so because the Conservative government favored it,” Wiseman said. “Unlike Americans, Canadians generally oppose increased defense spending and the F-35 is expensive. The proposed purchase received public blowback when the Conservatives were in office and the Liberals wanted to capitalize on it,” she said.

Wiseman said Biden will welcome the investment — F-35s are made in Fort Worth, Texas — but the U.S. has been expecting it for some time so it won’t be a surprise to Biden. Maintaining and operating the jets should involve 3,300 jobs and add $425 million annually to Canada’s GDP, the Canadian government said.

Canada’s decision to buy the F-35 was welcomed by U.S. Air Force Lt.-Gen. Mike Schmidt, the senior American officer responsible for managing the stealth fighter project out of the Pentagon.

“Canada is our friend and a close ally,” Schmidt said in a statement. “The F-35 is the best in the world, providing unmatched interoperability to America, Canada and the additional 15 nations that have selected the fighter. It is a global game-changer.”

 

[Nilgiri]

7 year u -turn, sickening the time wasted.

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

7 year u -turn, sickening the time wasted.

Hello Nilgiri. It's actually about 16 years since the Conservative government first decided to acquire the F 35 to replace the CF 18s. Then when Trudeau took power he cancelled the program saying they were too expensive 7 years ago and now he has flip-floped again. We could have had the first F35s in the field 10 years ago with all 88 F 35s operational by 2012. WHAT A WAIST OF TIME AND MONEY!!

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

I am OK with what ever they choose till they don't increase my tax lol

Hello crixus. You can bet your bottom loonie that the price of these 5th generation jets will climb and climb. Some have said to well over $70 Billion dollars.Then what will happen if the Trudeau government raises your taxes to pay for this mess. This could have been painless if Justin had just carried on with the buy 7 years ago. Our procurement system is broken and needs to be fixed now! What a waste of tax payers money! The only people who are hurt by this is the RCAF and Canadian public.

 

[Windchime]

Then superbug and gripen are not picked anyway (rightly so) by reopened MoD selection process....illustrating all the time and money wasted.

Add to that the Bombardier-Boeing trade/tariff disputes that happened just as Superbug became the preferred choice of the liberal administration. It really was an absolute clownery.

 

[Ripley]

Canada Reconsidering $13.2 Billion F-35 Purchase Amid Growing Tensions With The U.S.

The news comes just one day after Portugal announced it was abandoning its plans to purchase the F-35. "Canada is actively looking at potential

theaviationist.com

By David Cenciotti

Looks like they are second in line dropping or considering cancelling F35 after Portugal. Theirs is not gonna be an easy task, however. Canada already paid for the first 16 planes and their air fleet lacking essential asset of aircraft.

 

[Nilgiri]

Canada Reconsidering $13.2 Billion F-35 Purchase Amid Growing Tensions With The U.S.

The news comes just one day after Portugal announced it was abandoning its plans to purchase the F-35. "Canada is actively looking at potential

theaviationist.com

By David Cenciotti

Looks like they are second in line dropping or considering cancelling F35 after Portugal. Theirs is not gonna be an easy task, however. Canada already paid for the first 16 planes and their air fleet lacking essential asset of aircraft.

It would make no sense to acquire just 16.

This is just to apply counter pressure on Trump admin to drop the 51st state shenanigans.

I mean RCAF either gets 5th gen for its arctic needs till 2050 (with belligerent Russia and possibly China later given NORAD with US) and beyond or it has to revisit 4.5 gen again to plug the squadron gap looming.

If the latter, then we should have already gone for the superbug, rafale or gripen already....when the first pause on F-35 was done previously.

Clownshow levels of procurement that Trump has salted now.

 

[Saithan]

It would make no sense to acquire just 16.

This is just to apply counter pressure on Trump admin to drop the 51st state shenanigans.

I mean RCAF either gets 5th gen for its arctic needs till 2050 (with belligerent Russia and possibly China later given NORAD with US) and beyond or it has to revisit 4.5 gen again to plug the squadron gap looming.

If the latter, then we should have already gone for the superbug, rafale or gripen already....when the first pause on F-35 was done previously.

Clownshow levels of procurement that Trump has salted now.

But it would make sense to diversify their air force to avoid worst outcome. Unlike Denmark which is a small nation with 5.5 mio people. Canada is much bigger and being extremely dependent on US, as things are going isn’t an option.

I have a rough gut guess that some 40-50% of the F35 orders might get cancelled, but still acquire enough to have a squadron as minimum (small countries far away from frontlines).

EF T5 might get more tractio. While T4 production might have To hold the ford.

or

LM will have to establish independent maintenance structure in EU with production, which means Turkeys production capability is going to be an important asset.

 

[Nilgiri]

But it would make sense to diversify their air force to avoid worst outcome. Unlike Denmark which is a small nation with 5.5 mio people. Canada is much bigger and being extremely dependent on US, as things are going isn’t an option.

I have a rough gut guess that some 40-50% of the F35 orders might get cancelled, but still acquire enough to have a squadron as minimum (small countries far away from frontlines).

EF T5 might get more tractio. While T4 production might have To hold the ford.

or

LM will have to establish independent maintenance structure in EU with production, which means Turkeys production capability is going to be an important asset.

Yah but I mention NORAD for a reason. RCAF is tied at the hip to USAF literally. No other 2 airforces anywhere operate/exist like this. If relations go really sour, RCAF is literally stuck in worst spot of between a rock and hard place on the infra its reliant on and accustomed to. It is simply not an option for it to go that sour.

I mean lets say somehow F-35 is cancelled (incl or excl the 16), and RCAF goes for say Rafale to replace the legacy hornets in 1:1 way.... and then jumps to the euro 6th gen thing etc....and all the costs/delays this would involve again adding to the earlier dawdling back and forth.

Canada still forks out huge amount of spending for its destroyer program to the US (lockheed martin is heavily involved by way of radar, CMS etc in very long term substantial way that cant be undone)....among other things.

These are things Trump just doesn't understand, ignorantly or deliberately.

There are 100 different easier + optimal ways to communicate, pressure and even coerce Canada "underground" (US has done it a number of times and Canada makes some red lines known too in similar way when required)......be it greater military spending, border security, tariff agreements, drugs and crime you name it......

.....without coming off as a buffoon and damaging the relationship above ground for all to see and setting all kind of dumb precedence and tension/heat and unease, confusion and worry about what's next....especially given the significant bonds that have been invested into long term.

Trump has just ruined a bunch of things for no reason (and you see mixed messaging and uncomfortiness from the ambassador he is nominating regd political sovereignty side and also folks like Bessent regd the Trade side).

Canada only option is to wait things out a bit till something else distracts Trump much more, placate him slowly and work with his team somehow to communicate how to get things back to better order in relationship, and see if this F-35 "shot across bow" maybe lubricates this all starting (like I don't know whats being discussed behind closed doors to play-act a bit.... or this is Canada winging it to see how it goes).

 

[Ripley]

Canada still considering dumping F35 purchase. The decision will be made by September 22.
Trump warns, “serious consequences“ ahead.

U.S. warns Canada of potential negative consequences if it dumps F-35 fighter jet

The review of Canada's proposed purchase of 88 U.S.-built F-35s is set to be finalized by Sept. 22.

ottawacitizen.com

 

[Ripley]

I’ve recently seen this at some media outlets and social media but I only take it seriously because of the poster, Mr. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a well respected defense analyst.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989676206720160118

“By the way, @saab is in talks with Canadian Bombardier for the licensed production of the Gripen. The Gripen was being proposed to Canada instead of the F-35. It is claimed that production here is also planned to be carried out for Ukraine.”

@Nilgiri et al
It seems that Saab is eager for such a deal but will Canada reciprocate Swedish will, considering they snoozed off the decision for quite a while in regards to sour relations in Trump era?

 

[Iskander]

I’ve recently seen this at some media outlets and social media but I only take it seriously because of the poster, Mr. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a well respected defense analyst.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989676206720160118

“By the way, @saab is in talks with Canadian Bombardier for the licensed production of the Gripen. The Gripen was being proposed to Canada instead of the F-35. It is claimed that production here is also planned to be carried out for Ukraine.”

@Nilgiri et al
It seems that Saab is eager for such a deal but will Canada reciprocate Swedish will, considering they snoozed off the decision for quite a while in regards to sour relations in Trump era?

Unbelievable! The Gripen! Instead of the F-35! How can they even be compared? Or is Canada that upset with Trump? I've never heard of the Gripen being used in combat anywhere.
The Rafale would be more plausible.

 

[Huelague]

Or is Canada that upset with Trump?

Thats the point.

 

[uçuyorum]

Thats the point.

Gripen is also cheap enough that say they can buy and produce a few and having a number of them won't put a financiak strain when they eventually decide to buy F35 and make up with america

 

[Ripley]

Unbelievable! The Gripen! Instead of the F-35! How can they even be compared? Or is Canada that upset with Trump? I've never heard of the Gripen being used in combat anywhere.
The Rafale would be more plausible.

The decision on Canadian F-35 was around since early this year. Bu Grippen came out as a candidate recently and I agree that it’s hardly capable of fulfilling some tasks of F-35.
Nevertheless, haven’t seen any legit claims on this deal from Canadian side.

Thats the point.

Exactly

 

[Ripley]

Gripen is also cheap enough that say they can buy and produce a few and having a number of them won't put a financiak strain when they eventually decide to buy F35 and make up with america

Among all 4th gen jets, it’s the cheapest solution, sure, but Saab offer supposedly involves a local production by Bombardier. And it also includes the production for Ukraine as well (maybe to sweeten the deal) which when combined would‘ve require a substantial investment initially.
But all these may not matter after all as @Nilgiri said in his post few months back

Yah but I mention NORAD for a reason. RCAF is tied at the hip to USAF literally. No other 2 airforces anywhere operate/exist like this. If relations go really sour, RCAF is literally stuck in worst spot of between a rock and hard place on the infra its reliant on and accustomed to. It is simply not an option for it to go that sour.

 

[Iskander]

Trump will be leaving the White House in three years.
And Canada will be left with the Gripen. Trump is a bit of an odd man. It's unlikely anyone will take his threats to annex Canada to the United States seriously. Incidentally, he hasn't said a word about it in a long time. Perhaps he's completely forgotten about his threats He's a man who doesn't hold grudges. Or maybe he just has no memory: He's 80 years old, no joke.