India Corona thread

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,761
Reactions
119 19,783
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
Do you think India has now resorted to herd immunity???

Herd immunity no doubt comes at a enormous cost but man the loss of life is pretty tragic.

Pretty much every country to some degree has (herd immunity) given the time it took to get vaccines vis-a-vis the basic economic consequence of a total lockdown etc (thus you basically submit to herd immunity strategy when you open up with adequate safeguards given as much as possible to elderly).

Of course not detracting from the vaccine development efforts at all, they went quite quick all things considered, all seem to be quite effective to near 100% (in preventing death) and they are working on more long term to improve preventing infection rate efficiency (these range from 50 - 80% I believe overall).

Then of course you got to priortise vaccine by age (since most deaths from covid happen in the elderly by far)....so again for the population bulk (middle age + young), herd immunity is really in operation to some degree already in most countries.

The vaccine data so far worldwide is very promising though w.r.t re-infection (compared to herd immunity re-infection)....so it basically nips transmission in the bud on top of shielding the most vulnerable from a precarious chance of death.

But herd immunity really was the default thing in play (and at least it is a thing in nature) during the time so far till we get the vaccine rates up.
 

crixus

Contributor
Messages
1,021
Reactions
1,160
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
1619385240062.png
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,632
Reactions
37 19,741
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey

I think pandemics are proof how necessary it is to have domestic medicine production. And to start treating it immediately, and use what seems to work. IMO.
 

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,761
Reactions
119 19,783
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India

I think pandemics are proof how necessary it is to have domestic medicine production. And to start treating it immediately, and use what seems to work. IMO.

There is also lot of faulty reporting going on (from all ends during a tragedy, given scale of India).

Anyway that is for later to analyse as the situation is just started (and likely lasts about 2 weeks - month at least)...as to what the crematoria numbers even are (since smaller ones that dont get used much certainly can get "overwhelmed" easily as the larger ones reach capacity.....but these intensity ramps are not purely reflective of the situation...but great for media to latch on to). But then again world media did this all over the world already many times, so I guess its par for the course on that.

The major issue is that Indian govt did not prepare for 2nd wave in any meaningful way (thinking India would only be a 1-wave country). This means stockpiling the treatment options (oxygen and oxygen makers) and enough temporary spaces to host patients past just hospital beds.

So that is why treatment is now caught in a grinder situation lot of time.

There is sufficient local production of medicines I believe, but you got to have the critical things that buy people time....have them stockpiled, there are abundant warehouses in India. A shambles of planning....given 2nd waves happened in many countries already to learn from.
 

crixus

Contributor
Messages
1,021
Reactions
1,160
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
There is also lot of faulty reporting going on (from all ends during a tragedy, given scale of India).

Anyway that is for later to analyse as the situation is just started (and likely lasts about 2 weeks - month at least)...as to what the crematoria numbers even are (since smaller ones that dont get used much certainly can get "overwhelmed" easily as the larger ones reach capacity.....but these intensity ramps are not purely reflective of the situation...but great for media to latch on to). But then again world media did this all over the world already many times, so I guess its par for the course on that.

The major issue is that Indian govt did not prepare for 2nd wave in any meaningful way (thinking India would only be a 1-wave country). This means stockpiling the treatment options (oxygen and oxygen makers) and enough temporary spaces to host patients past just hospital beds.

So that is why treatment is now caught in a grinder situation lot of time.

There is sufficient local production of medicines I believe, but you got to have the critical things that buy people time....have them stockpiled, there are abundant warehouses in India. A shambles of planning....given 2nd waves happened in many countries already to learn from.
You remember what happened after the first lockdown last year :

a) Chief ministers argued that health is a state subject and center govt cannot impose their directions.

b) Many CMs start giving advertisements that they have controlled the corona and started celebrating. on the other hand same money can be used to actual help the people

c) People become so complacent that they have started going to marriages and religious gatherings without even minimum precautions.

e) When vaccines were available many people dint even bothered to get that as we have opposition spreading rumors about vaccines ( like impotency and its BJP's vaccine)

f) Agenda-prone politics happened even to claim credits and blame others.

e) Politicians as well as people started mass rallies after the first wave ( during the first wave we had elections in Bihar and people followed the rules)

The bottom line is you can't save anyone if they themselves don't want to get saved. The worse is those vulture journalists who are waiting for dead bodies since 25th January they missed the chance on 26th Jan now they are feasting on the misery of people.
 

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,761
Reactions
119 19,783
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
You remember what happened after the first lockdown last year :

a) Chief ministers argued that health is a state subject and center govt cannot impose their directions.

b) Many CMs start giving advertisements that they have controlled the corona and started celebrating. on the other hand same money can be used to actual help the people

c) People become so complacent that they have started going to marriages and religious gatherings without even minimum precautions.

e) When vaccines were available many people dint even bothered to get that as we have opposition spreading rumors about vaccines ( like impotency and its BJP's vaccine)

f) Agenda-prone politics happened even to claim credits and blame others.

e) Politicians as well as people started mass rallies after the first wave ( during the first wave we had elections in Bihar and people followed the rules)

The bottom line is you can't save anyone if they themselves don't want to get saved. The worse is those vulture journalists who are waiting for dead bodies since 25th January they missed the chance on 26th Jan now they are feasting on the misery of people.

I know, this is what I mean by the "scale of India" thing....and just its very populated dense place (esp in cities where this goes extra intensely in spread) with all kind of societal habits already ingrained/inculcated huge degree.

All being aired out mostly rather than suppressed etc.

I can go long with just how bad it was even in developed world regarding all this stuff, so it will be amped up in India's case for sure given 1st wave was more or less squelched in per capita term.

But the fact 1st wave was contained to degree it was (at great cost to economy and livelihoods and residual spreads anyway given migrations), means to me govt should have known 2nd wave will be a real bad one when it happens, and have anyway done its due diligence to stockpile assets. If you ended up not needing them, its not like its gone to waste anyway....these are all things that will be useful for any future pandemics.
 

crixus

Contributor
Messages
1,021
Reactions
1,160
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
I know, this is what I mean by the "scale of India" thing....and just its very populated dense place (esp in cities where this goes extra intensely in spread) with all kind of societal habits already ingrained/inculcated huge degree.

All being aired out mostly rather than suppressed etc.

I can go long with just how bad it was even in developed world regarding all this stuff, so it will be amped up in India's case for sure given 1st wave was more or less squelched in per capita term.

But the fact 1st wave was contained to degree it was (at great cost to economy and livelihoods and residual spreads anyway given migrations), means to me govt should have known 2nd wave will be a real bad one when it happens, and have anyway done its due diligence to stockpile assets. If you ended up not needing them, its not like its gone to waste anyway....these are all things that will be useful for any future pandemics.
No one can negate what you have pointed, my whole point is we can't blame govt for everything, for this second wave people are also responsible.
Even people could have some self-discipline and get vaccinated if you see infected in the second wave majority age group is 60+, and they could have easily got vaccinated and some precious life could have been saved.
 
Last edited:

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,761
Reactions
119 19,783
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India

Emotions are running high understandably.

I will wait sometime, maybe a month or so to see how things settle w.r.t relations with US.

I will say this, Trump said the quiet part out aloud. It wasn't what he was saying, it was the fact he said out aloud that upset "the establishment"....because he wasn't from "the establishment" (or rather the defined process the establishment sets out for its internal structure).

They (and the Biden admin is just a subset of it) prefer to do the "not say" and let the deep state worms do the cold calculations (economic and political) for what ought to and ought not to be done w.r.t allies, intermediaries and adversaries alike in whatever situation of note.

Then it boils down to the coin flip of hit/miss on what kind of messaging you get put out (if you know how these spoiled harvard/yale types work in the end, which many do not)...and when it misses, it generally misses by a wide mark.

This is a long feature seen in US, I suppose it comes with the territory of being a superpower and also feeling enshrined in it. This plays out in the toxified, liberal-bubble media and the rest of the state's organs (both elites and elitists that grow a certain way while the church and earlier cultural grounding recedes, leaving fissures in the wake that they think the "plebs" can merely step over)

There will be some payback (from Biden admin) for the earlier relationship made with the Trump administration too (given the utter polarisation it wrought and brought so clearly to the forefront)...though I feel if that is the case, they have overreached here and misjudged what Indians feel w.r.t US versus their internal politics and leaders when it comes to pressure scenarios.

Essentially, many foreigners (and maybe especially Indians given our particular cultural norms/heritage/thought patterns) do not understand how big and broad the US is (esp its political factions within its main parties and how they intersect with the "establishment"), and its impact when it chooses an extreme autarky on certain things (against its narrative it puts out mostly from inertia by roughly a century soft cultural influence. emboldened and exacerbated by WW2 victory and cold war victory).

Now there is enough long term memory in India too w.r.t USS enterprise and such things of that nature (really the cold war was quite an experience we saw enough of "other side" of US behind the usual nominal platitudes)....again fairly particular to the Indian experience.

So frankly I find it quite stupid if people have invested some extra bonhomie or extra "globalism" (if you will) than is due when it comes to such matters as this one, where countries will always put themselves first at an extreme level if need be.

On certain things India must shelve the emotionalism all together, pull its socks up, and have those things as robustly organised in the interior workings as possible, should the need arise. The worst kind of health crisis is one such thing, it should be put in same warfooting that was done for our nuclear weapons capability.....we cannot rely on anyone else for it.....no one owes us basic living and security.

For the rest of (non-autarkic) dealings with the west, that generally means where possible focus with the best of their lot (w.r.t what we need) that are more suitably population-sized and organised appropriately if you ask me (France, UK, Germany come to mind).

They are more easily understandable and more concrete for the 95% of people in any typical country. US needs protracted study (and they will still find a way to upset it) that is not easily available (time and interest wise) for most to get into the inner workings for quick results etc. It is best to just treat certain things as worst case scenarios if they are of paramount importance to your own lives. It is only reasonable, we have to be cold there....not warm and hot headed.
 

Merzifonlu

Contributor
Think Tank Analyst
DefenceHub Diplomat
Messages
716
Reactions
25 2,154
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
If an effective vaccine is not released just in time and in very big large numbers, I am afraid mass deaths will begin in India. The ridiculous anti-vaccine prejudices in Indian society also makes things very difficult. God bless the innocent.
 

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,761
Reactions
119 19,783
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
If an effective vaccine is not released just in time and in very big large numbers, I am afraid mass deaths will begin in India. The ridiculous anti-vaccine prejudices in Indian society also makes things very difficult. God bless the innocent.

Vaccine hesitancy is actually fairly low in India (around 20% and quite likely even lower now with the 2nd wave crisis) compared to even developed world (they tend to be 30%+).

India vaccine rate progress is OK (all things considered), it is approaching 150 million doses and will soon be 200 million doses given and grow from there even more:


The issue here mostly with 2nd wave, was not realising that a 2nd wave would happen and not preparing for it with the specific logistics and materials needed...and opening certain things up too early (while vax rate of seniors was still around 50% instead of close to 100%).

That will all have to be analysed later (rather than in temperamental biased media while crisis unfolds)....given right now the solutions are known, and need focus on implementation rather than what some media are doing excessively focusing only on the negative end for as long as possible.
 

Kaptaan

Experienced member
Think Tank Analyst
Messages
1,734
Reactions
4,073
Nation of residence
United Kingdom
Nation of origin
Pakistan
The issue here mostly with 2nd wave, was not realising that a 2nd wave would happen and not preparing for it with the specific logistics and materials

Seeing the disaster unfold at the crest of the second wave in India has helped to focus minds in Pakistan. Two days ago emergency was declared and army has been deployed across the entire country to help police enforce protocols. Over the last year the public has become complacent with following covid protocols. In addition the national command centre led by minister Asad Umer is now preparing extra oxygen supplies just in case. But the critical factor is if the public will treat the SOPs seriously particularly as we approach Eid. I think Ramadan has helped to temper the virus but after Eid things could go in the wrong direction. Possibly because of this looming danger the army has been deployed. Soldiers on the streets give a strong message to the public how serious things are.

covid.png



Even the Khyber Pakhtunkwa health minister was booked for taking part in a Iftar party.

1619559485960.png
 
Last edited:

xizhimen

Experienced member
Messages
7,391
Reactions
384
Nation of residence
China
Nation of origin
China

Covid in India: Why is the government playing down the crisis?​

 

Follow us on social media

Top Bottom