Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

[Blank1]

Hazaras chose to negotiate peace with Taliban's.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417790903507374084

 

[Titanium100]

I will address in full the points you raised but CA countries are under the influence of Moscow. Before even thinking of anything else you need to get them out of Moscows thrall. You can't talk of propping Turkic elements in Afghanistan without even considering how your going to get Russia out of CA. To begin with exactly how would you access Afghanistan. The key here Russian expulsion from CA. Thus far I have seen no indication of that.

CSTO is just an alliance like NATO to be exact a defense treaty. Turkey has influence in CA via the Turkic council. Turkey is the one responsible arming them and it has defense treaty with them individually.. Russia may have the CSTO but it doesn't have more influence than Turkey both have influence in CA.. It is like EU the Turkic council it will just keep growing in ties, trade and heritage exchange including defense which Turkey provides to CA states without any pre-attachments and their best armements comes from Turkey which we saw in Karabakh last year. Uzbekistan, Turkemenistan and Kazakhstan are even stronger than Azerbaijan and we haven't even them in action just yet but the most important thing is that they are turkics at the end of the day they have an alliance with Russia for their own benefits and the same with Turkey. They form different bloc treaties with both

 

[Kaptaan]

Russia is not in CA the same way NATO is not in Turkey.. CSTO is just an alliance like NATO to be exact a defense treaty. Turkey has influence in CA via the Turkic council. Turkey is the one responsible arming them and it has defense treaty with them individually.. Russia may have the CSTO but it doesn't have more influence than Turkey both have influence in CA

Rubbish. Russian influence is dominant in all of CA. Try pulling Kazaks - a Turkic people out of Russian orbit. All this Turkic Council business is just fanboy analogous to the ummah pipedream. It has zero meaning in real politial posturing. Only Azerbaijan are really with the Turks. Rest is myth, fables and lore. Turks are more European - I have been to Kazakistan and Uzbekistan.

 

[Kaptaan]

Now that we can dispense with formaties Dostum is the biggest criminal warlord that side of the Caspian Sea. Anybody can google his track record. He has no politics but money and no morals then force. He was with Russians before 1989. Then change colour. And no doubt will again.

 

[Titanium100]

Rubbish. Russian influence is dominant in all of CA. Try pulling Kazaks - a Turkic people out of Russian orbit. All this Turkic Council business is just fanboy analogous to the ummah pipedream. It has zero meaning in real politial posturing. Only Azerbaijan are really with the Turks. Rest is myth, fables and lore. Turks are more European - I have been to Kazakistan and Uzbekistan.

I have also been to these countries. They are more westernized but still cherish their turkic hertige and turkic nationalists. This has nothing to do with Ummah while the Turkic council is a reality.. You make alliances sound as if it is a marriage between 2 but in the geo-politics arena you can have multiple similar treaties and alliances for different reasons and Turkey herself is westernized country but still their turkish identity strong.. A leopard will never shade his skin nor will a horse un-horse herself.. A Turk will always remain a turk this is the important thing to understand. Cherishing your own identity that is why the Turkic council is a reality and supported by all equally.. It is a turkic cause and unnegotiable.. An undeniable reality

 

[Blank1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417392626068705281

Timothy Weeks (Australian) was a prisoner with Taliban's. He embraced Islam.

 

[Kaptaan]

Afghan Warlord’s Promotion Highlights the Bankruptcy of America’s Longest War​

President Ashraf Ghani promoted a notorious warlord as marshal to seal his power-sharing deal. Afghan promises are turning to dust.​

By Emran Feroz

Former warlord and then-vice presidential candidate Abdul Rashid Dostum, left, seen praying with then-presidential candidate Ashraf Ghani after a tumultuous presidential election, June 25, 2014. Shah Marai/AFP/Getty Images


July 17, 2020, 1:48 PM


When Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, his main political opponent, signed a power-sharing deal in May, it ended eight months of bitter post-election dispute. It also came with a disturbing price tag, one hashed out among rounds of backroom deals, tense negotiations, and desperate U.S. attempts to keep the government from imploding. Abdul Rashid Dostum, Ghani’s vice president until last year and one of the country’s most notorious warlords, demanded a promotion to the rank of marshal, only awarded twice before in Afghan history. Ghani, who’d long vowed to clean out the warlords, complied.
Dostum, whose militias are believed to have carried out one of the most notorious war crimes in modern Afghan history during the early days of the U.S.-led invasion, embodies much of what’s gone wrong in contemporary Afghanistan—and especially the failed promise that the U.S. invasion would help create a cleaner, more transparent, more democratic state. Dostum still stands accused of torturing and ordering the rape of a political rival while in office as recently as 2016. After swift Western condemnation, Dostum fled to Turkey, where he enjoys a good relationship with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It wasn’t his first flight to Turkey: In 2008, too, he’d sheltered in Ankara amid similar accusations that his men had abducted, beaten, and sexually assaulted a political opponent.
But instead of being prosecuted, Dostum is being promoted: His ascent to marshal became effective this week. While many critics, both Afghans and non-Afghans, observed the ceremony with indignation, Afghan media shrugged, while the warlord’s supporters celebrated the promotion.
“I send congratulations to all of Afghanistan,” said Mawlavi Baharuddin Jowzjani, a cleric and high-ranking official of Dostum’s party, in an interview with Tolo News about the warlord’s promotion. On social media, Dostum’s son Batur Dostum bristled at criticism and said, “such accusations will not harm the Marshal.”

Afghan Warlord’s Promotion Highlights the Bankruptcy of America’s Longest War

President Ashraf Ghani promoted a notorious warlord as marshal to seal his power-sharing deal. Afghan promises are turning to dust.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to Other

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417803773481820163

 

[LegioXLupus]

Horrible assumption and allover the place... First of all they were outlasted and didn't want to over-waste money.. Taliban could have gone on for a century if the Americans had money for that kind of longevity. Technically defeated however you look at it.

No just your definition of winning has a very low bar. They were never there to stabilise, nation-build or modernise Afghanistan this comes naturally with any invasion. The pullout was known from the beginning. they overthrow the Taliban government, found OBL, established a weak Afghan government.

America has enough money and power to keep a small garrison in Afghanistan plus some advisors to keep the Taliban at bay, you would be foolish to think otherwise.

Yes Persians, Chinese, Indians also outlasted their occupiers, like I said low bar.

Second of all the wildest assumption comes in Turkey-Pakistan relations? This is just assumption. Pakistan will not value Taliban over it's relations with Turkey because there is more benefits from Turkey in the defensive sector and the same for Turkey vice versa they gain alot from Pakistan stragetic arsenal.. Their ties have improved significiantly in the last 2 years to the point they are one state now.

Where did I say Pakistan will value its relations with the Taliban over Turkey? The answer to that is obvious, so is the fact that Turkey and Pakistan have different long term aspirations in Afghanistan in the past and present.

Turkey gaining from Pakistans strategic arsenal is only teenager, Indian and Greek talk, we know this will never happen.

I advise you to read properly, I said long run, so far there have been a few incidents brushed under the carpet all due to historic relations. When blocks get settled and as Turkey tries to gain influence in CA this will evolve. Good, bad, neutral the future will tell.

Turkey can have easy access to Afghanistan but it has to play right.. Make a symbolic exit and then re-enter but either way Turkey will not face hostilities from Taliban or Pakistan.. Turkey is viewed like a big brother and sources of inspiration the respect is to high.. The most likely scenario is that Turkey will be invited because there is great benefit in having Turkey on your side Pakistan understand this perfect.

Yes, the Taliban will come to the table.

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to Other

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417803773481820163

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to Other

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417805590294892548

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to Other

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417807017364840453

 

[Titanium100]

No just your definition of winning has a very low bar. They were never there to stabilise, nation-build or modernise Afghanistan this comes naturally with any invasion. The pullout was known from the beginning. they overthrow the Taliban government, found OBL, established a weak Afghan government.

America has enough money and power to keep a small garrison in Afghanistan plus some advisors to keep the Taliban at bay, you would be foolish to think otherwise.

Yes Persians, Chinese, Indians also outlasted their occupiers, like I said low bar.

They could have kept a garrison I agree... But it was a moeny suking black-hole this is what initially lead to the withdrawal they understood that everyone wanted them to burn themselves out there.. The Chinese, Pakistanis, Russians, etc etc everyone was happy to see them there and burn out slowly their cash.. First of all the place is build and designed for eternal wars it is a mountainous country where it becomes difficult for hardware to travel back and forward plus it has no stragetic value whatsoever just a barren black-hole money suking hole. The Americans understand that it couldn't waste more money in that black-hole and chose to withdraw but it took them long time to realize this... Alot of other foes has benefit from them being busy there and locked inside there.. That place was not cheap and there is 21trillion uncounted defense spending since 00s.. The figures giving official is not the real figures and much more than that.. Fighting an eternal, never ending war with zero stragetic value plus very expensive was silly and it was always gonna end one way them vacating the country.. Attack what is valuable and leave the non-important stuff this is what Sun-Tzu said. They were fighting in an irrelevant country with no upside stragetic value to them whatsoever just a black-hole.. Them staying there suited everyone it kept their focus off alot other people and it was a major distraction from the real world. Afghanistan was a mirage and an illusion.

The Chinese and Russians plus other elements were slowly arming the IEA and silently. This was a bait for them but they understood this at the end

 

[Blank1]

NOTE : Gomal Border Crossing which is close to Angoor Ada Border Crossing is under the control of IEA not shown in the map.

 

[Kaptaan]

There appears to be a premise accepted as a given that Taliban are bad and rest are saints. As I said before non of the players in Afghanistan are saints and there is is not much to differantiate them then each observors prejudices or affliations.

Pakistan faces challanges in Afghanistan similiar to how Turkey faces in Syria or Iraq. How to prevent groups in those countries like Kurds or PKK gaining ground to cause trouble within Turkey. Or to prevent external players using Syria or Iraqi terrirory to facilitate problems within Turkey specifically the kurdish issue. In order to degrade that threat Turkey has danced with Islamists and groups that in my view are despicable.

PKK by comparison are left leaning, with progressive views on femal emancipation compared to the some of the savage Arab Sunni groups who are just neutered versions of Taliban and draw their same sickly inspiration from Saudi salafism. But I understand why Turkey uses these Islamist Sunni groups to deflect, contain the Kurdish threat. After all what exactly the confict between Sunni Arabs and the Alawites is not ethnic but simple sectarianism.

 

[Kaptaan]

No just your definition of winning

Whether US won or was defeated depends on the goals -

• If US goal was to destroy AQ and OBL then yes it won but that was achieved by 2010.
• If the goal was to destroy Taliban because they are 'terrorists' then it was a defeat because US clearly failed to do that. And only changed the goal post by accepting the 'terrorists' as legitimate.

 

[LegioXLupus]

I will address in full the points you raised but CA countries are under the influence of Moscow. Before even thinking of anything else you need to get them out of Moscows thrall. You can't talk of propping Turkic elements in Afghanistan without even considering how your going to get Russia out of CA. To begin with exactly how would you access Afghanistan. The key here Russian expulsion from CA. Thus far I have seen no indication of that.

CA countries are slowly moving away from Russian influence, there is a strong sense of Turkic identity that prevails and Turkey has made leaps with the Turkic council. You don't get over years of cultural hegemony overnight, even Pakistan is still using English. Russian power is not what it used to be, just yesterday people were saying the same thing, that Russia would not let Turkey into the Caucasus.

Propping Turkic elements is the last resort, Turkey will prefer to work with the Afghan government and negotiate its presence. Taliban would be stupid to go hostile on Turkey.

I assume by access you mean Pakistan is the only route to CA or Afghanistan? in that case you are wrong.

 

[Titanium100]

I am seeing figures as high as 150.000 Afghan armed forces surrendering and including defections. 150k has either surrendered and defected to the Taliban.. The largest portion of IEA is now made of former Afghan armed forces who joined their ranks just in the last few months. This is a huge blow and set-back for the Afghan gov't which was one of the reasons that lead to the complete melt-down and the fall of 85% in such a quick succession..

The massive defection rate will continue the ANA soldiers have shown they don't wanna die that easily and for corporate like run regime and corrupt officials who don't wanna take the bullet themselves

 

[guest_07]

I am seeing figures as high as 150.000 Afghan armed forces surrendering and including defections. 150k has either surrendered and defected to the Taliban.. The largest portion of IEA is now made of former Afghan armed forces who joined their ranks just in the last few months. This is a huge blow and set-back for the Afghan gov't which was one of the reasons that lead to the complete melt-down and the fall of 85% in such a quick succession..

The massive defection rate will continue the ANA soldiers have shown they don't wanna die that easily and for corporate like run regime and corrupt officials who don't wanna take the bullet themselves

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh, my brother.

In Islam, its a big sin to
talk like hypocrite.
Walk the talk.
Allah hates hypocrite.

You ask your soldier to fight or die.
Yet you as their leader,
run away like a coward.

Beware to those that
don't walk the talk.

 

[Kaptaan]

An undeniable reality

I agree. But so is ummah. The issue is to what degree. IMHO Central Asians are in the Russian orbit. Baskhirs, Chuvash, Tatars and other republics are actually chained to the Russian federation. A Pan-Turkic reality would require Russia being abrogated and all lands south of Volga, Black Sea littoral and Central, Chinese Turkestan and that shard in Afghanistan unifying under some NATO or EU like structure.

 

[Philips]

EU like structure.

Yes, that is the plan and depending on the circumstances the process can be sped up or slowed down.