Recent content by dBSPL

I believe that Tayfun’s subsequent blocks will make their real breakthrough not so much in terms of range or warhead size, but rather in the area of MaRV. Once that stage has matured sufficiently, what comes next is more or less clear.

Due to military security and protocols, the current and definitive military personnel roster or exact headcount for any brigade is not shared via “open sources.” However, it is known that, in accordance with the organizational structure standards of the Turkish Armed Forces and depending on the...

It’s clear that we’re making a remarkable breakthrough on the international stage with Tayfun and, subsequently, CENK, but there’s a flood of baseless speculation—to the point of taking things way too far—all in the name of generating engagement or clickbait, especially on social media. Given...

Final Article Turkiye 2040: Threshold, Friction, and the Limits of Systemic Power By 2040, Turkiye will no longer be a peripheral actor. Its ascent has been neither accidental nor merely symbolic; years of strategic focus, technological investment, and regional engagement have positioned it...

Article VI External Friction and Systemic Pushback: When the System Begins to Push Back (2025–2040) There is a persistent misconception in power analysis: that resistance emerges when a state becomes aggressive. In reality, resistance emerges when a state becomes effective. The international...

Article V Domestic Absorption Capacity: Why Power Sometimes Plateaus Before Becoming Prosperity Power is often discussed as something that must be acquired, expanded, or projected. Far less attention is paid to what happens after power arrives. Yet history suggests that the decisive phase for...

Article IV Geopolitical Conversion Arenas: How Turkiye Turns Influence into Structural Power (2025–2040) Introduction: Power Does Not Convert in a Vacuum Power accumulation, as established in the previous articles, is a necessary but insufficient condition for long-term national advancement...

Article III The Political Economy of Conversion: Why Some Power Translates into Wealth—and Some Doesn’t The Central Question No One Likes to Ask By now, one fact should be uncontroversial: Turkiye has influence. What remains deeply contested—and often emotionally charged—is whether that...

Article II Quantitative Scenarios for Turkiye (2025–2040): From Influence to Income 1. Why Scenarios Matter More Than Forecasts Macroeconomic forecasting fails most precisely where it matters most: at structural turning points. Turkiye is currently at such a point. Point estimates—single GDP...

Article I Turkiye as a Threshold Power: From Middle Power to Systemic Actor 1. Introduction: The Misreading of Turkiye Most contemporary analyses still approach Turkiye through outdated binaries: West vs. East, democracy vs. authoritarianism, NATO ally vs. revisionist actor. These frames are...

Turkiye 2025–2040: An Introduction to a Power Projection Why This Series, and Why Now: Most texts written about TR (Turkish Republic) fall into one of two lazy extremes. Either they lean toward excessive optimism, bordering on narrative building rather than analysis, or they reduce the country...

In 2024, or early 2025, Selçuk Bayraktar shared some screens from the operator console interface while sharing the concept of Kızılelma fleet autonomy at a conference. Although yesterday's social media post generated a lot of buzz, this and much more had already been presented to the public much...

When communication jamming actually occurs, I am genuinely curious about the operational effectiveness of these wingman concepts. When two air forces with equally high electronic warfare capabilities face each other, especially during a night in full stealth profile, dozens of these possible...

One thing BAYKAR has made us accustomed to is that once their systems reach a certain number of flight test hours, other validation and performance tests follow one after another at lightning speed. One of the key factors behind Baykar's rise from among many traditional aviation giants to become...

The size of the contract may indirectly indicate a very large-scale infrastructure investment. I believe that line and base maintenance levels are already indispensable requirements for the air force. However, if there are plans to supply additional fighters in future packages, I do not rule out...