In 2018 Erdogan won with around 53% of the vote in the first round. At the same time the anti- Erdogan vote was around 46% which is still very, very significant.
In 2018 the Turkish economy was still way way better than it is right now even though the start of the Economic problems could be felt. The USD and EURO were still around the 5 TL mark and not around 20TL like they are now. The inflation in 2018 was bearable and not close to 100% like it is right now. A year after that AKP lost Istanbul and Ankara... in 2019 again the Economic situation was much, much better than it is in 2023.
Another important factor- in the 5 years between 2018 and 2023 there was a demographic shift with millions of (mostly) older people who died while millions (maybe twice as much) of young people turned into eligible voters. AKP's popularity is biggest amongst the older generations while the young people are mostly anti- Erdogan and supporting the Opposition.
We all watch the polls of the different companies and try to make predictions based on them but do any of you consider that many people refuse to answer questions about politics because they are afraid? I talk mostly about people with views opposing the Government because those who support AKP have nothing to be afraid off- they hold the knife and the bread anyway. The percentages of the Opposition can be even bigger than anticipated.
So just here we have 2 (potentially 3) very strong indicators that Erdogan is going to lose.
Are all the flashy projects (which in the end of the day don't bring bread on the table for 99% of the people) and the propaganda about Terrorists, Traitors of the homeland and Foreign Forces enough to cover all these factors above?
ps I forgot the refugee situation that is significantly worse now compared to the previous election... again the Government is losing points here for sure too.
