actually they wanted to shut down then HDP threaten them that they will revile to the people what AKP has promise to them back in 2000s (things like jailing general engin alan who was the architecture behind capture of PKK's number 1 and 2 because in the peace talk PKK wanted to jail him to take their revenge and AKP delivered by sentencing him to 18.5 years in jail) after that that AKP back down
The article, like 99% of all comments from the West related to the Kurdish issue in Turkiye, ignores one damn fact:Erdogan’s political fate may be determined by Turkey’s Kurds
By Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN
Updated 10:54 AM EDT, Mon April 3, 2023
HDP Co-Chair Mithat Sancar, Kurdish politician Ahmet Türk, HDP Deputy Bedran Ozturk and the wife of imprisoned Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, Baak Demirtas during a Nowruz celebration in Diyarbakir, Turkey, on March 21.
Bilal Seckin/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images
Editor’s Note: A version of this story first appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.
Abu Dhabi, UAECNN —
Turkey’s persecuted pro-Kurdish party has emerged as a kingmaker in the country’s upcoming election, playing a decisive role that may just tip the balance enough to unseat two-decade ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
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In a key setback to the Turkish president and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) last month announced that it would not put forward its own presidential candidate, a move analysts say allows its supporters to vote for Erdogan’s main rival.
“We are facing a turning point that will shape the future of Turkey and (its) society,” said the HDP in a statement on March 23. “To fulfill our historical responsibility against the one-man rule, we will not field a presidential candidate in (the) May 14 elections.”
It is a twist of irony for the Turkish strongman, who spent the better half of the past decade cracking down on the party after it began chipping away at his voter base. Its former leader Selahattin Demirtas has been in prison for nearly seven years and the party faces possible closure by a court for suspected collusion with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliated groups. But its influence may nonetheless determine the course of Turkey’s politics.
The HDP’s decision not to field a candidate came just three days after head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan’s main rival, visited the party’s co-chairs. He told reporters that the solution to Turkey’s problems, “including the Kurdish problem” lies in parliament,” according to Turkish media.
Kilicdaroglu, who represents the six-party Nation Alliance opposition bloc, is the strongest contender to run against Erdogan in years. And while the HDP hasn’t yet announced whether it will put its weight behind him, analysts say it is the kingmaker in the elections.
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“It was a carefully crafted political discourse,” Hisyar Ozsoy, deputy co-chair of the HDP and a member of parliament from the predominantly Kurdish province of Diyarbakir, told CNN. “We are not going to have our own candidate, and we will leave it to the international community to interpret it the way they wish.”
Experts say the crackdown on the HDP is rooted in the threat it poses to Erdogan politically, as well as its position as one of the main parties representing Turkey’s Kurds, an ethnic minority from which a separatist militant movement has emerged.
The party and the Kurdish people have had a complicated relationship with Erdogan. The leader courted the Kurds in earlier years by granting them more rights and reversing restrictions on the use of their language. Relations with the HDP were also cordial once, as Erdogan worked with the party on a brief peace process with the PKK.
But ties between Erdogan and the HDP later turned sour, and the HDP fell under a sweeping crackdown aimed at the PKK and their affiliates.
Kurds are the biggest minority in Turkey, making up between 15% and 20% of the population, according to Minority Rights Group International.
It is unclear if the HDP will endorse Kilicdaroglu, but analysts say that the deliberate distance may be beneficial for the opposition candidate.
Precarious position
The accusations against the HDP place it in a precarious position during the elections. It currently faces a case in Turkey’s Constitutional Court over suspected ties to the PKK, which is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union. Knowing it may be banned at any moment, its candidates are running under the Green Left Party in parliament.
If the opposition is seen as allying with the HDP, Erdogan’s AK Party may use its influence in the media to discredit it as being pro-PKK, said Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul and author of Return to Point Zero, a book on the Turkish-Kurdish question in Turkey.
The HDP’s threat to Erdogan’s hold on power became apparent after the June 2015 election, the first general election it participated in. It won 13% of the seats, denying the ruling AK Party its majority for the first time since 2002. Erdogan, however, called a snap election five months later, which led to a drop in the HDP’s support to 10.7%, as well as the restoration of the AK Party’s overall majority.
“They are a kingmaker in these elections because the HDP gets about half of the votes of the Kurdish population in Turkey,” said Somer, adding that the other, more conservative Kurdish voters have traditionally voted for Erdogan’s AK Party. And last month, the Free Cause Party (HUDA-PAR), a tiny Kurdish-Islamist party announced support for Erdogan in the elections. The party has never won seats in parliament.
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The HDP knows that its position is key to the outcome of next month’s vote, but that it’s also in a delicate situation.
“We want to play the game wisely, and we need to be very careful,” said Ozsoy, adding that the party wants to avoid a “contaminated political climate” where the elections are polarized “between a very ugly ultra-nationalist discourse against Kilicdaroglu and others.”
The party was founded in 2012 with a number of aims, said Ozsoy, one of which was “peaceful and democratic resolution of the Kurdish conflict.”
Somer said that the party was seen to be “an initiative” of the PKK, which later led to a heavy government crackdown on it in the name of counterterrorism.
Its former leader Demirtas remains an influential figure.
The Turkish government has been trying to link the HDP to the PKK but has so far failed to prove “a real connection,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.
A post-Erdogan Turkey may give some breathing space to the Kurds and Kurdish-dominated parties in Turkey, Aydintasbas told CNN, noting that many Kurdish voters have recently left Erdogan’s camp. “For HDP, this is more than just an ideological choice,” she said. “It’s a matter of survival.”
Ozsoy says his party understands what’s at stake, not only for Turkey’s Kurds but for all its minorities.
“We are aware of our responsibility here. We are aware of our role. We know we are in a kingmaker position,” the HDP lawmaker said.
Interesting article.
@dBSPL @Zafer, et al.
| Hi readers, With just 40 days to go until Turkey holds presidential and parliamentary elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has finally unleashed his fiery side. He snapped at the US Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, on Sunday for visiting the opposition’s joint presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, has incurred the wrath of conservative voters after he made the unfortunate gaffe of standing on a Muslim prayer mat with his shoes on. Erdogan has used the blunder to his advantage and social media has been awash with criticism of the opposition leader. We’re going to be discussing both these issues in a bit, but first, here are some updates since Thursday’s newsletter: ● Turkish, Syrian, Iranian and Russian deputy ministers are meeting in Moscow today to discuss the Syrian crisis. It’s the first high level and formal engagement between Turkish and Syrian officials. ● A Turkish constitutional court judge told the media on Friday that Erdogan scolded him over his decision to lift a treasury grant ban on the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP). “I told him that we didn’t have any evidence showing that HDP was transferring funds to terror groups,” the judge said. “He told me that the court’s ruling was a violation of the rule of law.” ● Shots were fired at the Istanbul office of the opposition party IYI. The group’s leader, Meral Aksener, was quick to blame her detractors, but it turns out a watchman at a construction site accidentally fired his weapon at the offices while chasing down thieves. ● Erdogan became the first owner of Turkey's first indigenous electric car Togg. | |
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| Erdogan 'closes the door' on US ambassador As I mentioned here, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) doesn’t want to stir trouble with foreign powers so close to the election. But in usual Erdogan fashion, the president railed against the US on Sunday, targeting Flake and President Joe Biden following the Ambassador’s visit to the opposition. Erdogan was addressing a small gathering of the Turkish ultra-nationalist ‘Grey Wolves’ on Sunday, who are bitterly anti-American, and chose his words carefully. He lashed out at both men and his remarks were subsequently released by the Turkish Presidency to the media. Why is visiting Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) an issue for Erdogan? It’s mainly because AKP supporters and a wide number of Turks believe the US plays a subversive role in the country's politics. The military coups of the 1970s and 80s are believed to have been backed by Washington, while the alleged mastermind of the failed 2016 coup, Fethullah Gulen, lives in Pennsylvania. It’s important to note that Turks don’t just see the US ambassador as an ambassador, he’s viewed more as an actor that that can shift the balance of power in the country. Erdogan also perceives Flake’s visit as support for Kilicdaroglu, despite the Ambassador also meeting Erdogan’s ruling AKP and its vice-chairman Numan Kurtulmus days earlier. Erdogan probably remembers what Biden told the New York Times in 2020. “What I think we should be doing is taking a very different approach to him now, making it clear that we support opposition leadership,” Biden said before assuming the presidency. “He has to pay a price.” Since then, Biden has only met Erdogan a few times and has largely steered clear of talking with the leader. Also, Biden didn’t personally visit Turkey after February’s devastating earthquakes that claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people, he dispatched US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Essentially, it looks like Erdogan wants Flake to avoid any actions that could undermine him so close to the elections. Prayer rug scandal a test for Kilicdaroglu When Kilicdaroglu attended a Ramadan Iftar last week, everything appeared to be going well for the 74-year-old. His aides believed they had a real chance of winning and so the candidate spent time posing with his supporters, taking photos and selfies. But then he stood on a prayer mat with his shoes on. “The place you step on with your shoes is the prayer rug that Muslims use while prostrating,” said Hamza Dag, the deputy chairman of AKP. Kilicdaroglu would later apologise and say he didn’t see the mat. He apologised the day after too. But Erdogan hasn’t let it go. During a speech in Istanbul on Sunday, Erdogan held a prayer mat in his hands and said those who stepped with their shoes on prayer mats would continue doing so for the next 40 days. “They don’t have much time left,” he said. The Turkish presidency of religious affairs has finally intervened and said a prayer mat isn’t sacred in Islam. So, why the outcry? Because the incident has emboldened Kilicdaroglu’s critics who claim he and his aides don’t care about Islam and Muslims. Worse, his aides aren’t qualified enough to manage his Islamic affairs, and the following public relations disaster. More importantly the incident has reminded voters of the CHP’s previous secular policies, such as their decision to support the headscarf ban in universities and public institutions. Older Turks will remember that the CHP’s one-party-rule, that lasted until the 1950s, saw a crack down on religious education and the clergy. So, with just 40 days to go until the elections, Kilicdaroglu will have to do better otherwise he risks alienating conservative voters, of whom around 65 percent are fasting. | |
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| Worth mentioning ● Kilicdaroglu could win the first round of the election, but it will be a close call, Aydin Erdem, the research manager at the polling firm Konda, has said. He added that another presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince, would likely see his support dwindle in the next few weeks. ● Turkey's annual inflation rate slowed to 50 percent in March, delivering another boost for Erdogan. Unofficial calculations put the annual inflation rate at 112 percent. ● Imprisoned HDP mayor Gulten Kisanak, a heavyweight at the party, criticised the Workers’ Party of Turkey (TIP) for not running a joint list with HDP and other parties in the parliamentary race. “No one has a right to waste even a vote,” Kisanak said. “There is no joint presidential candidate. If there will be no joint electoral list, this alliance is no longer an electoral alliance.” |
If Kılıçdaroğlu had been replaced by someone else, he would have won by a bigger margin. For example Mansur Yavaş...
%41 percent of akp voters are iliterate old people and illegal immigrants people from trabzon
No, the difference is statistically insignificant.
What debates?
Quite the opposite. He's closing the gap just like I predicted.
When erdo wins you can come and use your sweet euros to buy stuff
double citizenships should be revoked you either with them or with us
I am not a dual citizenship holder.When erdo wins you can come and use your sweet euros to buy stuff
Good
I just haha'd the islam part thats all not the entire argument.
Erdogan doesn't do debates, even on his TV appearances, all the questions are screened and answered beforehand. He will never put himself in a position where he doesn't already know the questions.
