A new message resounds in the Arab world: Get Ankara

Deliorman

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Turkey is now the prime enemy in the hearts of the Gulf Arab Monarchs for a few very simple reasons. Let’s leave Erdogan’s love affair with the MB and the fact that Ottomans used to rule over much of the Arab world for a few centuries.

The problem for those absolute monarchies is that Turkey’s influence in their countries rose NOT through money, clerics and armed militias (the way Iran operates) but through soft power. Many Arabs have a positive image and like Turkey for different reasons- from medias to tourism and shopping to its more laid back lifestyle etc... to the fact that no matter what Turkey is still a democracy with much more freedom than their countries. And those monarchs are very afraid of all that... The thought that someday their citizens might look abroad for an example is scaring them a lot. The fact that another country won the sympathy in much of the Arab and the Muslim world through soft power is what bothers them.
 

Huelague

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Just finished reading it. Indeed a great article, thanks for sharing it.
I think the main takeaway was this:

In its intelligence estimate for the year 2020, Israel's military intelligence division included Turkey among the list of organisations and countries that threaten Israeli national security.

I think we all know who's behind the challenges Turkey is facing in the East Med. Countries like Greece and the Gulf States are only pawns.

A+
 

Cobra Arbok

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Could you see an upcoming split in the Arab world between anti-Israeli and pro-Israeli governments/factions? Or is Israeli influence now so strong that any opposition would be crushed?

I ask this because if Erdogan continues to stay in power, he could see some new Arab allies emerging.
Considering Bahrain just fell in line with the UAE, I'm pretty sure the gulf with the possible exception of Qatar will accept the UAE-Israel deal. The most significant opposition will be from Jordan, lebanon, and maye iraq. Egypt is a bit of a wild card, though I am pretty sure Sisi would support improved Israeli ties.
 

Xenon54

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Dubai is very oil independent my friend, they'll survive.
Dubai economy is already crumbling, all it needed was a 3 month crisis.
Sure 70% of its economy might be shady real estate, aviation industry and services which are allready a bubble by itself but the other 30% is still oil and those billions are desperately needed right now.
Other gulf countries have even worse outlook with their scuffed economy and unsustainable lifestyle.
If you still dont see where the train is heading then you must be blind or something.
 

TR_123456

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Just finished reading it. Indeed a great article, thanks for sharing it.
I think the main takeaway was this:

In its intelligence estimate for the year 2020, Israel's military intelligence division included Turkey among the list of organisations and countries that threaten Israeli national security.

I think we all know who's behind the challenges Turkey is facing in the East Med. Countries like Greece and the Gulf States are only pawns.
Thats where you are wrong,it was never Israel,it was and is MBZ(UAE) and his sidekick MBS(KSA).
 

CEZAYIRLI

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Not all arab economies are oil based my friend. Egypt is going to be in the top 20 economies by 2030 something.
" Egypt is going to be in the top 20 economies by 2030" :
It's true that they are poor for now, and probably for the foreseeable future. However the Gulf states don't have a particularly bright future either, now do they? Their downfall has started, and it will only get worse within a decade or two. Once Gulf money dries up, the USA will no longer care. They will still be in the region to protect Israel, but they won't care about the UAE or Saudi Arabia.

Egypt's best choice would be to work with Turkey, as together they could divide the eastern Mediterranean pie and also work together strategically for the future. The important part here is north Africa, as both nations could easily eliminate any threats in the region while also benefiting economically. It would make the most sense for both countries, but instead Egypt has become best friends with its former enemies (Israel and Cyprus). The problem for Egypt is that it'll be left on its own sooner or later, as Gulf money dries up. Then if Turkey and Israel fix relations post-Erdogan/Bibi then Egypt will become a target, the same way Turkey is right now. The only difference is that Turkey is fully capable of standing against the coalition that it is facing. Egypt won't be able to, as even its geography isn't suitable for such circumstances.
Great analysis. Egypt is untrustworthy and unreliable. It had once the chance of becoming the leader of the Arab world, yet today it is on the payroll of a small emirate (i.e., the UAE) obeying its frivolous and hegemonic attacks on Libya and other African countries. If I were an advisor to Turkey, I would say Turkey beware.
 

CEZAYIRLI

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Could you see an upcoming split in the Arab world between anti-Israeli and pro-Israeli governments/factions? Or is Israeli influence now so strong that any opposition would be crushed?

I ask this because if Erdogan continues to stay in power, he could see some new Arab allies emerging.
The difference between Turkey and the Arab regimes who normalized with Israel is: Turkey deals with Israel from a position of regional Leadership and Strength, while the Arab regimes like the UAE, Morocco, KSA, and Jordan are protégés of Israel and deal with Israel from a position of submission and weakness.
 

CEZAYIRLI

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The difference between Turkey and the Arab regimes who normalized with Israel is: Turkey deals with Israel from a position of regional Leadership and Strength, while the Arab regimes like the UAE, Morocco, KSA, and Jordan are protégés of Israel and deal with Israel from a position of submission and weakness.
 

CEZAYIRLI

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And look at all of them, dirt poor and will never be prosperous again. and btw Suria has good relations with UAE now.
The difference between Turkey and the Arab regimes who normalized with Israel is: Turkey deals with Israel from a position of regional Leadership and Strength, while the Arab regimes like the UAE, Morocco, KSA, and Jordan are protégés of Israel and deal with Israel from a position of submission and weakness.
 

Titanium100

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The difference between Turkey and the Arab regimes who normalized with Israel is: Turkey deals with Israel from a position of regional Leadership and Strength, while the Arab regimes like the UAE, Morocco, KSA, and Jordan are protégés of Israel and deal with Israel from a position of submission and weakness.

You have been singing the same song since forever but none of that is real in the real world.. You are bringing conspiracy theories into the realm of the real world.. Israel is irrelevant in the larger context of things here.. They are just navigating their policies and whatever suits them and is beneficial for them in every given time that is how geopolitics work in the real world... Nobody is proteges of anyone else just 2-3 days ago Trump aid was charged with being an UAE lobby and hinting at MBZ was controlling the US so who is whos puppet is the question.. The world is not as you make it out to be.. If the entire US was a puppet to UAE how can they be puppets of others this thing will go full circle into irrelevance... But the truth of the matter is everyone acts according to his interests and what suits them that can further their agenda and the world is a very selfish place something that will never change..

People buy to much into that George soros is controlling universe yada yada.. Which is a wack conspiracy theory Israel is just a tiny country that needs defending from others in the region and the US this is their true reality on the ground
 
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CEZAYIRLI

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You have been singing the same song since forever but none of that is real in the real world.. You are bringing conspiracy theories into the realm of the real world.. Israel is irrelevant in the larger context of things here.. They are just navigating their policies and whatever suits them and is beneficial for them in every given time that is how geopolitics work in the real world... Nobody is proteges of anyone else just 2-3 days ago Trump aid was charged with being an UAE lobby and hinting at MBZ was controlling the US so who is whos puppet is the question.. The world is not as you make it out to be.. If the entire US was a puppet to UAE how can they be puppets of others this thing will go full circle into irrelevance... But the truth of the matter is everyone acts according to his interests and what suits them that can further their agenda and the world is a very selfish place something that will never change.. Just a human beings reality.

People buy to much into that George soros is controlling universe yada yada.. Which is a wack conspiracy theory Israel is just a tiny country that needs defending from others in the region and the US this is their true reality on the ground
No need for you to make a personal attack. My comment wasn't direct to you. First, you can't write "protégés" correctly, which means you probably don't understand its meaning. Second, you keep making incoherent assumptions about US politics, which you don't comprehend much either.
 

Ryder

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Turkey is now the prime enemy in the hearts of the Gulf Arab Monarchs for a few very simple reasons. Let’s leave Erdogan’s love affair with the MB and the fact that Ottomans used to rule over much of the Arab world for a few centuries.

The problem for those absolute monarchies is that Turkey’s influence in their countries rose NOT through money, clerics and armed militias (the way Iran operates) but through soft power. Many Arabs have a positive image and like Turkey for different reasons- from medias to tourism and shopping to its more laid back lifestyle etc... to the fact that no matter what Turkey is still a democracy with much more freedom than their countries. And those monarchs are very afraid of all that... The thought that someday their citizens might look abroad for an example is scaring them a lot. The fact that another country won the sympathy in much of the Arab and the Muslim world through soft power is what bothers them.

Honestly why dont the Arab monarchies like Saudi Arabia and UAE just embrace constitutional monarchy its not like they are going to give up their thrones?
 

Titanium100

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No need for you to make a personal attack. My comment wasn't direct to you. First, you can't write "protégés" correctly, which means you probably don't understand its meaning. Second, you keep making incoherent assumptions about US politics, which you don't comprehend much either.

You have been praising Israel covertly but the truth of the matter is nobody views them like that in the region just some obsessed individuals but Everyone else sees Israel as it is basically they are not blind.. Just a small outpust.. The best example anyone can give you on Israel is Taiwan.. It is literally the Taiwan of the west.. The entire region is not looking at Isreal but NATO this is the person sitting in there who has an outpost there... True geopolitics not assumptions
 
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BordoEnes

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Actually the Arab world is split with those who are against UAE ksa regimes and Arab revolutionaries who are against them

To be be more precise, conflict within the Arab worlds almost always revolve around absolute Monarchies vs Reactionaries to this status quo. This can come in the form of alternative entities that offer ideological and organizational guidance such as Muslim Brotherhood, terrorist organizations, radicals Islamists, democracy and etc. Funny thing is that it doesn't matter how much they struggle, how much opposition they crush or Turkey loses, they will eventually come crumbling down. Its inevitable.

EDIT: I realized this is a pretty old post I am replying to, sowwyyy :)
 

CEZAYIRLI

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Honestly why dont the Arab monarchies like Saudi Arabia and UAE just embrace constitutional monarchy its not like they are going to give up their thrones?
" constitutional monarchy' like the UK means democracy and voice of the people. Arab monarchies on the other hand are feudal regimes where the people has no say in governance.
 

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