Hearing TAI talk about this commercial passenger aircraft (that isn't a helicopter) worries me. I think competing in the commercial civil aviation sector against the Airbus-Boeing duopoly is a fool's game. Canadian, Russian, and Chinese (state) firms either almost or literally bankrupted themselves in their attempts.
It's like trying to build a new car brand that only builds ICE vehicles. Chinese brands were never able to build a decent ICE car, but they're on their way to become major players in the EV market. The only time TAI should even consider building a commercial civil passenger aircraft is when a massive paradigm shift occurs in the market, as was the case for the automotive sector.
For instance, the Comac C919 now costs just slightly less than the A320neo or B737 MAX, has less range, is less efficient, doesn't have the planned composite wing, and is filled to the brim with critical western components. China can afford such a project, we cannot. CR929, SSJ, and MC-21 are even more problematic. As for the existing legitimate smaller players: Bombardier divested from the commercial civil aviation sector, and Embraer is struggling to shift E2s (now competing with Airbus).
Besides ongoing projects, I would personally like to see TAI focus on:
- Navalization. Especially in developing a modern Seahawk alternative that massively undercuts Sikorsky.
- Larger military transport jets (JV preferably with Embraer, or at least Antonov)
- Following innovations in the sector like CFM's RISE or RR's UltraFan. Anticipate and prototype a next-generation commercial passenger aircraft, try to enter the market only then, and only if financially viable.
- Invest even more heavily in composite aerostructures, become (more) indispensable to the commercial and military aviation supply chain.
I would love to see Turkish Airlines fly a TAI airliner, but the financial and human resource health of TAI should be prioritized over national pride. Overextending ourselves is a recipe for failure.
Spot on.