Asymmetric Arsenals: The $10 Drone vs. the $10 Million Missile

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Asymmetric Arsenals: The $10 Drone vs. the $10 Million Missile

In an interview with The Atlantic, Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, drew parallels between Ukrainian drone warfare and playing the Lego. “They don’t have some technological breakthrough,” Papperger said. “They make innovations with their small drones…But this is not the technology of Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, or Rheinmetall.” His words reveal a clear conflict between traditional, large-scale, high-cost defence manufacturing and the decentralised, low-cost drone warfare proving highly effective on the battlefield.

Papperger received a negative reaction from experts and politicians in Ukraine. Iaroslav Kalinin, chief executive of Ukrainian defense firm Infozahyst, made the compelling point that military innovations should be assessed based on their actual effectiveness in combat situations, as opposed to solely focusing on their level of technological complexity. Alexander Kamyshin, Advisor to the Ukrainian President, stated that these "LEGO drones have already destroyed more than 11,000 Russian tanks".

Recent armed conflicts involving Ukraine and Iran demonstrated that low-cost weaponry can be highly effective when used against conventional arms. A key challenge for the U.S. and its allies is the significant cost disparity between the offensive drones and the defensive interceptors: The cost of one U.S. interceptor missile can be as high as 115 Shahed drones. According to report, the United States had spent approximately $35 billion on the war against Iran by the beginning of April.

In order to combat this "asymmetric" threat more effectively and with greater cost efficiency, the U.S. military is changing its strategy. The US has developed a low-cost kamikaze system known as the Lucas drone, which was reverse-engineered from the Shahed concept in order to combat the prioritisation of intellectual superiority over physical strength. Another example is A.I.-powered interceptor drones, such as the Merops Surveyor, which have the capacity to engage and neutralise enemy projectiles from a short range, according to The New York Times.

A notable point is that Merops is being developed by a company founded by the former Chief Executive of Google, while Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics are not participating. It is evident that Papperger is committed to defending his industry, in which there are approximately 44,000 total employees. Nevertheless, it is during periods of actual warfare that the most significant innovations tend to emerge.

“It is really like a start-up, but in a real war with combat. You need to be very dynamic, very fast, and everything changes constantly,” Artem Belenkov, Chief of Staff of one of Ukraine's drone brigades, provided an overview of the drone industry.
 

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