Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320016838634471424

Az repelled Armenian attack in zengilan and took prisoners

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320019788161339392

 

[Topan]

How about guerilla warfare. Thaliban in Afgahanistan can survive and win.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320004007541284865

Lots of Armenian tanks destroyed in Fuzuli region

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319985193478987777

 

[Gary]

How about guerilla warfare. Thaliban in Afgahanistan can survive and win.

Taliban in Afghanistan thrive under the local support of the mainly tribal people, don't know how this would work in Nagorno Karabakh if all is taken by Azerbaijan. Consider that in such scenario the Armenians are likely gonna flee the whole area. Making insurgency in the long run difficult

 

[Skyfall]

Compare Al Bab and cities in eastern Turkey after the Turkish army was involved in heavy urban warfare there. This isn't a matter of "the Turks vs the others",but a matter of how much resistance the enemy is willing to give. It's easy to capture a city intact when your adversary barely puts a fight. The contrary is another story though.

The French certainly know about resistance. They resisted so much that Paris had to be rebuilt entirely after WWII.

 

[Vergennes]

The French certainly know about resistance. They resisted so much that Paris had to be rebuilt entirely after WWII.

My points are still valid. Try to counter them instead of getting personal.

 

[Skyfall]

View attachment 4799


Little analysis. We had two stages of war so far:

1) Heavy Talish/Magadish and Hadrut battles.
2) Fast march along Iranian border with one failed Armenian counter attack.

Now we entered a third stage. I guess main objectives are Lachin and Qirmi Bazar (opens road to Shushi and flanks heavy defence lines around Khojavend) . Contrary to Hadrut and Talish battles now Azeri side is much more cautious. SF are searching for weak points in Armenian defence and then defence positions are softened through air and artillery.

Both are extremely heavy mountain areas. The problem with Lachin front is that Armenians can use artillery and air defence from Armenia itself.

Also contrary to popular belief Lachin is not the only road to Karabakh. There is also another one through Vardenis.

I was aware of this road to Vardenis. It wasn't include it in my earlier post because early in the conflict there was reports that this road had been intersected by the Azeris. Perhaps it did happen and the area where it occurred is still being contested. Nevertheless, I think this road is of a lot lesser importance because it is very vulnerable being at places around 10km from the border. So it can be hit quite easily and frequently.
Also your map shows this Mrav mountain being under Azeri control, so it makes the road even more difficult to defend from attack for the Armenians.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319296776487186432

 

[Oublious]

 

[Skyfall]

My points are still valid. Try to counter them instead of getting personal.

My point is also valid, I mean to be personal, not to cause offence but to tailor my answer to you.

You have made such a simple analogy: High resistance = High damage. Low/no resistance = no/minimum damage.

And apparently the Turks must have faced minimal resistance in Syria, whereas Assad/Russian/US/PKK faced serious resistance hence almost total destruction of those cities.

One thing that I didn't factor in was the intentional damage caused by the later because of wanting to force the population out in order to affect demographic change. Also how high was the resistance in Raqqa if PKK and ISIS reached and agreement for ISIS to withdraw from the city.

So it may be easy to make simple analogies but are they true to life. My point I believe is valid because it is a fact that Turkish operations whether in Syria or elsewhere had significantly lower collateral damage than any of the other parties involved. And Turkey is accused of demographic change in Northern Syria, so wouldn't it have been in their interest to flatten all of the areas involved. But as we have seen this didn't happen.

 

[adenl]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320068553727422465

 

[Vergennes]

My point is also valid, I mean to be personal, not to cause offence but to tailor my answer to you.

Such remarks will lead the debate to nowhere,some tendencies we had on some other forums have to be eliminated. Try to directly counter what I said,you could have saved yourself one post.

You have made such a simple analogy: High resistance = High damage. Low/no resistance = no/minimum damage.

And apparently the Turks must have faced minimal resistance in Syria, whereas Assad/Russian/US/PKK faced serious resistance hence almost total destruction of those cities.

One thing that I didn't factor in was the intentional damage caused by the later because of wanting to force the population out in order to affect demographic change. Also how high was the resistance in Raqqa if PKK and ISIS reached and agreement for ISIS to withdraw from the city.

So it may be easy to make simple analogies but are they true to life. My point I believe is valid because it is a fact that Turkish operations whether in Syria or elsewhere had significantly lower collateral damage than any of the other parties involved. And Turkey is accused of demographic change in Northern Syria, so wouldn't it have been in their interest to flatten all of the areas involved. But as we have seen this didn't happen.

You were praising about how the Turkish army and their backed forces were effective at clearing urban areas while according to you the US and the Russians only bomb towns back to the stone age. You were comparing apples and oranges. You could take as exemple Afrin. Most cities including Afrin itself were taken without much destruction or collateral damages because the YPG and their affiliates barely put any resistance,barely resorted to urban resistance...... and most of these cities (not all though) were emptied of their inhabitants. No need to laid siege to a city and destroy it when there's no armed resistance and no inhabitants.

Now my point was,as simple as it is,in case of heavy urban fights,the prospects of destructions and collateral damages are much higher. ISIS put a fierce resistance in any villages and towns they controlled,used civilians as human shields and pretty much trapped so many neighborhoods,streets,houses..... Try to answer the equation of clearing a town of your enemy without causing heavy destructions and collateral damages while at the same time suffering the lowest casualties.

I didn't say the Turks didn't face resistance in Syria,I meant they faced much more fierce resistance against ISIS than with the YPG. We witnessed it during the Euphrates Shield operation and in Al Bab. Compare your claims with pictures of Al Bab after it was cleaned of ISIS or of many towns in Eastern Turkey after they were cleared of the PKK&co.

 

[Null/Void]

It seems Biden want to expand support for the Armenians and the Democratic majority Congress is in favor of that(Southern California is heavily Democratic and Armenians are good population to pander) so for the sake of Turkish-Azeri success in the Southern Caucasus its imperative Trump wins this election he is transactional asf, and generally could care less about Armenians and he been quite vague Pompeo is blowhard and if Trump is elected for a 2nd term as always the pick for new Secretary of State is likely to happen Pompeo is not likely to gain his position in the 2nd term

 

[Saithan]

Seems US has sent a warning to Baku. Something is going on.

 

[Combat-Master]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320068553727422465

Oooh that definitely looks like a Cirit tri-mode warhead on the first strike.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320069874446704641

 

[Blackeyes90]

Seems US has sent a warning to Baku. Something is going on.

What do you mean ? Can you give more info ?

 

[Saithan]

What do you mean ? Can you give more info ?

Trying to find out more atm. Perhaps it’s a øn election stunt to gsther votes from Armenians.